Making the playoffs or keeping our top-10 first round pick 2025?

[redmile04]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

Washington just last year made the playoffs with a -37 goal differential.

Was thinking that but was hoping for a different answer lol since the caps got swept.. although argument could be made for flames being worst. Caps were 5th last in scoring, flames are dead last right now and we don't have an Ovi

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by EVERLAST

Flames just need to focus on 1 shift, 1 period , 1 game at a time ....dont get too high , nor too low.

And get pucks in deep.

[GreenLantern2814]

Watch the Devils and Flames picks end up within three spots of each other.

[Samonadreau]

It's a real log jam between Cgy/Van/STL/Utah right now. 2 points separating them.

Flames really could have used a regulation win tonight.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Hackey

The probability of winning a cup with a tear down rebuild is low.
The probability of winning a cup without a tear down rebuild is significantly lower.

The probability of drafting a star in the top 5 is low.
The probability of drafting a star outside the top 5 is significantly lower.

I don't know what the exact probabilities are but I'd rather the 15% chance over the 0.01% chance.

This is a very clear post with the back and forth on tanking vs not.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Wolven

The "Murderer's row" road trip has ended and the Trade Deadline is upon us.

...

Marching down the stretch: 20 games remaining

• Expected Wins: Canadiens (H), Canucks (H), Kraken (H), UHC (A), Ducks (H), Sharks (A), Ducks (A), Sharks (H),
• Likely Wins: Islanders (A), Wild (H), Kings (A),
• Likely Losses: Rangers (A),
• Expected Losses: Avalanche (H), Maple Leafs (A), Devils (A), Stars (H), Oilers (A), Avalanche (A), Golden Knights (H), Golden Knights (H),

Quick reminder: How I set my expectations is that the team does better at home and worse on the road and it seems that we do better against bubble and basement teams but struggle against the playoff teams of this season. Currently showing 8-8-4 expectation, depending on how you want to read this list.
...

The Trade Deadline is behind us and here is my update with 2/20 of the remaining games completed.

Section 1: Schedule update
Marching down the stretch: 18 games remaining

• Expected Wins: Kraken (H), UHC (A), Ducks (H), Sharks (A), Ducks (A), Sharks (H),
• Likely Wins: Islanders (A), Wild (H), Kings (A),
• Likely Losses: Rangers (A),
• Expected Losses: Avalanche (H), Maple Leafs (A), Devils (A), Stars (H), Oilers (A), Avalanche (A), Golden Knights (H), Golden Knights (H),

Results for the final 20 games of the season

• Confirmed Wins: Canadiens (H),
• Confirmed OTL: Canucks (H)*,
• Confirmed Losses:

*Defied expectation

Last night’s game hurt. Not just because we needed the win to hold off the Canucks but also to give us some more space to stay ahead of the Blues and UHC. The rest of the month for the Flames is tough with another difficult east coast road trip (playing 4 games in 6 nights) and then otherwise getting double Avs, Stars, Oilers, and a Kraken game to round out the month.

Expectations for the second half of March are 2-6-1. Yikes. Hopefully we can steal 4+ points above the expected 5/18 points.

Section 2: Playoff standings update
The team is still holding onto WC2.

• Canucks are tied with us and Flames have a game in hand
• Blues are 2 points back and Flames have a game in hand
• UHC are 2 points back and Flames have a game in hand

Section 3: Tankathon update

• The Flames have the 18th hardest remaining schedule (L10 = 4-2-4)
• Canucks have the 12th hardest (L10 = 4-6-0)
• Kings have the 17th hardest (L10 = 5-3-2)
• Blues are 32nd hardest... STILL the easiest remaining schedule as of now!!!! (L10 = 7-1-2)
• UHC are 23th hardest (L10 = 6-2-2)

Based on the standings, the Canucks are still a threat as they are right with the Flames in the standings. The Blues and UHC see the blood in the water and are moving to attack WC2 with their winning records in their last 10 and easy schedules in front of them.

Section 4: "Top10 draft" update

• Flames are 15th overall, tied with Canucks. (1 spot drop from last update)
• 1 point back is the CBJ
• 2 points back is the UHC, Blues, and Canadiens.
• 3 points back is the Red Wings, Rangers, and Bruins
• Big drop off to 24OA as the Islanders are 6 points back

3 points separate the Flames from dropping 8 spots in the standings to 23 OA. Somehow the Bruins had their big TDL sale and then won 2 games to keep the path to the 10OA draft pick open.

Section 5: Other 1st round pick update
Devils are 13OA in the standings (1 spot drop)
Panthers are 5OA in the standings (1 spot drop)