CP Mafia 4 - The Unknown Host - Game Over!

[Timbo]

I think it works like this: you get a PM it would state You have been given the spore you are
Either
1: turned if you are you get a link to quick topic for the turned
2: not infected

You must pass the spore to another player

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Sorry, I am tired. So, we should assume then that if the spore carrier is infected they won't reveal as now their victory condition has changed. How does it work though? What I am wondering is let's say the coin flip comes up not to infect, does Mazrim then have to tell the target they were even targeted if there is no infection?

I think so, because now that person has to pick someone to infect on the next night, so they need to know they have the spore. It's possible Mazrim won't tell the person until the next night, but I doubt it. He usually seems to give people all the information about themselves.

[Timbo]

I think it works like this: you get a PM it would state You have been given the spore you are
Either
1: turned if you are you get a link to quick topic for the turned
2: not infected

You must pass the spore to another player

[Timbo]

Dang sorry double post

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by Hockeyguy15

If whoever got the spore turned, they probably wouldn't say they have the spore?

Probably not what I am saying we might have to delay this plan until a player who is not infected comes forth.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I think so, because now that person has to pick someone to infect on the next night, so they need to know they have the spore. It's possible Mazrim won't tell the person until the next night, but I doubt it. He usually seems to give people all the information about themselves.

Ok. This game is gonna be a tough one.

[dissentowner]

So from what I have read many posters think the spore carrier if not infected should reveal themselves, correct? How long are we waiting because if they were infected then they are not going to reveal right?

But the first one to admit it gets a free pass. If the Captain says it's him and he passed it to passenger A and we kill Passenger A, that doesn't help us. And then we aren't going to target the Captain because we thing he was just the first schmuck to get the spore.

[mrkajz44]

I agree with Puxlut here, as the first person to reveal could by lying about one of these things (or both I guess):

1) They actually got the spore
2) They didn't turn when they got the spore

So really, the big risk with pushing an early reveal is thinking we have better information now, when really we are worse off than before.

[squiggs96]

Alright all you vanilla beans. Let's get ready to vanquish some scum. I'm heading out to the golf course in a bit, but will be back on here tonight. My initial guess is you'd find out immediately once you have the spore. I don't see them being hit with it after playing a whole day in game play.

I think the thing I'm most excited for is I don't have to talk in the third person.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by Puxlut

But the first one to admit it gets a free pass. If the Captain says it's him and he passed it to passenger A and we kill Passenger A, that doesn't help us. And then we aren't going to target the Captain because we thing he was just the first schmuck to get the spore.

Well in that scenario, either the Scum actually does send it to Passenger A in which case:

Tomorrow, Passenger A remains a passenger and tells us that he was sent the spore. We, unfortunately, should still kill and we remove the spore for a night. That's a decent outcome for us. We might trust Scum a bit more, but we know there's a possibility he was lying.

Or

Tomorrow, Passenger A turns. We still kill him and we remove the spore for a night. That's a decent outcome for us.

Or the Scum doesn't send the spore to Passenger A, in which case:

Tomorrow, Passenger A remains a passenger and tells us that he was not sent a spore. We, unfortunately, should still probably kill him if no one else comes forward. But once he reveals passenger we know that the Scum lied to us. That would be a great outcome for us.

Or, Passenger A remains a passenger and the real target of the spore, if not turned, comes forward as well and says he was actually sent the spore and now we have Passenger A and "Real Target" going up against the lying Scum. Another great outcome for us.

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Good point that we'd be killing a 100% passenger, I hadn't thought of that. Obviously the host wouldn't pick scum for their first spore target.

However, realistically on day one we only have a 3/18 = 16.6% chance of hitting scum, while if the spore continues it has a nearly 50% chance of infecting one of us.

I did some math. (Assuming the spore didn't work, if it did we're not hearing from anyone and we should guess or pick someone inactive or something).

If we kill the spore holder we're guaranteed to go into tomorrow with 3/17 scum, since we'll kill one passenger and no new infections. 17.6% of players will be scum

If we don't kill the spore holder there are two possibilities, either we get lucky and get a scum or we don't. In each case the scum have about a 50% chance of converting someone.

Get scum: 3/18 chance of happening times 2.5/17 scum remaining (we kill one plus they get a 50% chance of getting someone new)

Don't get scum: 15/18 chance of happening times 3.5/17 scum remaining (we kill one passenger plus they get a 50% chance of getting someone new).

Weighted average scum remaining = (3/18)*(2.5/17)+(15/18)*(3.5/17) = 19.6% of players remaining will be scum

So killing the spore holder on day one works out statistically better than not doing it, although it is close.

I can see why the spore holder may not want to embrace this plan, as its more fun to keep playing, but I think it's better for the passengers if they come forward. It has less huge upside (if we guess right on the first day we probably have the game in the bag, similar to the NHL one) but is statistically the right play.

Never tell me the odds!

[Timbo]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

I agree with Puxlut here, as the first person to reveal could by lying about one of these things (or both I guess):

1) They actually got the spore
2) They didn't turn when they got the spore

So really, the big risk with pushing an early reveal is thinking we have better information now, when really we are worse off than before.

The Goverment Agent is our protection against this.

[Mazrim]

To clarify:

- If you are turned, you will be informed when the day starts.
- If you are not turned, you will you not be informed. You will be asked to pass the spore during the next night, and that is the only information you will receive.

Storywise:

The spore is tiny and airborne, released by the Host to spread their kind to other beings, synthetic or not. Generally, humanoids will resist the spore slightly before noticing the effects. Others might be weaker and face immediate results. On those it does not immediately take to, it starts to grow, to become more potent and further the chance of success.

Generally, the victim in this case can see the spore growing on their body and remove it before being turned. However, since it will just return to them, they will need to pass it someone else.

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by Timbo

The Goverment Agent is our protection against this.

Well, only sort of. The agent can't detect the scum, so it could be a "false negative" when the investigation is done. Also, this also assumes the agent will reveal as well and report results (and be believed by everyone).

I'm just concerned we devise a plan based on a reveal and make some incorrect assumptions that could really put us behind the 8-ball.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

I agree with Puxlut here, as the first person to reveal could by lying about one of these things (or both I guess):

1) They actually got the spore

You're right, but now we do have some information. Bizaro86 has suggested we kill the spore carrier. It has merit, if the person comes forward and is lying (because he is scum) and we do kill him, we're golden.

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

2) They didn't turn when they got the spore

The Government Agent should really target whoever is the person to reveal they got the spore, so if that's the case he dies anyways.

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

So really, the big risk with pushing an early reveal is thinking we have better information now, when really we are worse off than before.

I'm not really sure what the early reveal would be. The scum know who they sent the spore to, they obviously know he's a passenger. It would only be the passenger gaining information here and a couple options on how to proceed.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

Well, only sort of. The agent can't detect the scum, so it could be a "false negative" when the investigation is done. Also, this also assumes the agent will reveal as well and report results (and be believed by everyone).

I'm just concerned we devise a plan based on a reveal and make some incorrect assumptions that could really put us behind the 8-ball.

Government Agent kills, not reveals though. He doesn't have to say anything.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Dang, Mazrim's post changes everything, clearly not going to get a reveal today.

[Timbo]

Well so much for that strategy.

[mrkajz44]

Haha, yeah. I was just typing a response when I saw that come up. That puts us back at square one for the first lynch.