Stocks - The Best Buys 2

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by jayswin

I personally think we're at the beginning of a reckoning in North American (world really) working and spending and anyone looking for a near future bottom is playing a fools game.

With the massive death totals coming to America and the inability to crawl back into a regular functioning society because of that death, we will likely see a 5-10 year crawl back to what we knew as American consumerism, if it ever comes back at all.

What I predict is a massive drop (which we've already seen) followed by a bunch of little drops that keep the market slowly sliding to points people thought it could never drop to (while waiting for it explode up) and then eventually the stock market will be known as this thing that people used to make money on.

Tough times don't last.

During the 2008/2009 Financial crisis many people were predicting the same thing. Also look back to the Spanish Flu. That time period was followed up by one of the largest decades of excess and rising stock returns of the 20th Century. This is a severe contraction, it will have huge implications, but it won't end the world as we know it and capital markets will still function long after this.

[mikephoen]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

This is just the beginning of the deaths. It is just starting to hit parts of the world. I don't know why people look at the current numbers and brush them off when it's clear this is just the very beginning in some places.

We're at the start of this thing. Just because China may be starting to come out on the other side doesn't mean the rest of the world isn't just about to get smoked by this thing. The same thing happening in Italy is about to start happening in many countries around the world.

This isn't over. It's just begun.

I agree that it's just started, but what is the absolute worst case scenario? One percent of Americans die? So something like 3.25 million? Even in that fairly unlikely outcome, I don't think the stock market becomes 'something that people used to make money on' like jay speculated.

Especially since a lot of those 3.25 Million people will be older people with money, and that money will spill down to younger people who are more likely to invest it, or spend it, sending it out into the economy.

I agree with those that have said we haven't seen the bottom yet, but I think jay's hypothesis is pretty unlikely.

[cracher]

Just soiled my pants for 10 straight minutes haha. Been busy, didn’t look at all yesterday. Logged in this morning to see all red. And that I’m out of every position I’ve taken in the last 1-2 weeks. Just realizing that all my standing sell orders were triggered yesterday in a good way. Don’t have a clue what yesterday was all about... but it seems like my ability to deal with stress is compromised without Starbucks open.

[united]

Jumped into a big safe play (FB) earlier this morning for the probable bump with the presumed passing and signing of the aid bill in the USA. Will dump later this afternoon and back to cash for the weekend. Might put in an order for SPSX after the bell and monitor over the weekend before making a decision on staying or pulling Sunday evening.

[Resolute 14]

Here comes the dividend cuts. IPL slashes the hell out of its payout - down to 4 cents a share. DRIP program suspended, CEO slashes his pay 20% and the rest of the board by 10%.

[flamesfever]

Originally Posted by united

Jumped into a big safe play (FB) earlier this morning for the probable bump with the presumed passing and signing of the aid bill in the USA. Will dump later this afternoon and back to cash for the weekend. Might put in an order for SPSX after the bell and monitor over the weekend before making a decision on staying or pulling Sunday evening.

I believe it's very risky to try and predict the ups and downs in this very volatile market...too many unknowns.

[Bonded]

What are people's opinions on Cenovus? Off their lows of 2.06. I am debating buying now or waiting to see their earnings report in April

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by Bonded

What are people's opinions on Cenovus? Off their lows of 2.06. I am debating buying now or waiting to see their earnings report in April

They have zero hedges, you would basically gamble on price recovery before they are insolvent.

[manwiches]

Originally Posted by Bonded

What are people's opinions on Cenovus? Off their lows of 2.06. I am debating buying now or waiting to see their earnings report in April

If you can afford, go with Enbridge. I've been stocking up on that the past 2 weeks, as it's at a 5 year low, their dividend has always been upwards of 8%, and with Line 3 being green lit through the States finally, they will be carrying capacity for the next 30+ years.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

wholly different problem though, 2008 was simple to solve, this isnt

What? 2008 saw some of the largest financial firms in the world collapse. It was substantially more severe, and complicated, financially, than COVID-19 is.

The challenge now is stimulating the economy to reflate again, once normalcy returns. That is a much more straight-forward problem than some of the issues in 2008.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by jayswin

I personally think we're at the beginning of a reckoning in North American (world really) working and spending and anyone looking for a near future bottom is playing a fools game.

With the massive death totals coming to America and the inability to crawl back into a regular functioning society because of that death, we will likely see a 5-10 year crawl back to what we knew as American consumerism, if it ever comes back at all.

What I predict is a massive drop (which we've already seen) followed by a bunch of little drops that keep the market slowly sliding to points people thought it could never drop to (while waiting for it explode up) and then eventually the stock market will be known as this thing that people used to make money on.

Strongly disagree.

I vividly remember 9/11, as it unfolded on our screens right before our eyes. Digesting the consequences as it unfolded, we all agreed that the world had changed forever - that people would stop travelling, completely stop flying, and that our western way of life was under an attack of war.

And though the world DID change forever, normalcy returned, and people got on with their lives. And after a while, the markets were setting new highs again.

Basically, the same story can be told with every global crisis. Every single time, there are many who predict that the world as we know it is over. And every single time, normalcy returns, and the markets eventually set new highs.

This too shall pass.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Strongly disagree.

I vividly remember 9/11, as it unfolded on our screens right before our eyes. Digesting the consequences as it unfolded, we all agreed that the world had changed forever - that people would stop travelling, completely stop flying, and that our western way of life was under an attack of war.

After 9/11 people were saying irony was dead. Maybe even comedy itself. How could the world ever return to normal after an event like that?

Today, the only enduring consequence for most of us is we have to stand in long lines at airports and take our shoes off.

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Basically, the same story can be told with every global crisis. Every single time, there are many who predict that the world as we know it is over. And every single time, normalcy returns, and the markets eventually set new highs.

A few days after the 2004 tsunami I was at a party talking with some journalist friends. Of course it was the topic of the moment. A staggering calamity, with almost a quarter million dead (though at the time people feared that number was much higher). It was a natural disaster on a scale nobody of our generation had witnessed before. The world was in shock. Everything had changed.

But the journalists predicted that within a couple months it would be out of the news, and in a couple years most people would barely remember the tsunami. And of course they were right.

The pandemic is obviously having more of a personal impact on more people in North America and Europe than the 2004 tsunami did. And the economic fallout will last years. But like every other disaster that felt unprecedented and world-changing at the time, we'll move on and put it behind us.

[Resolute 14]

Also, if you do believe that there will be a large number of deaths in the US(/world), the fact is, nearly all of those deaths are among the elderly. Which means large amounts of wealth are about to be inherited by younger generations. Which are going to invest.

It will probably take a few years to get back to where we were six weeks ago, but the market will recover.

[opendoor]

The financial consequences of the pandemic most likely won't be enough to have a long-term impact on the health of the financial system. There likely aren't going to be a huge number of deaths, there will be no physical damage to infrastructure, and the productive capacity of most countries will be largely unchanged.

But things like this can be a catalyst to bring to the fore inherent problems and weaknesses in economies that can have larger effects. Will that happen? Who knows. But before Covid was a thing, there were still serious concerns with the amount of debt that exists (personal, business, and governmental), the prolonged period of extremely low interest rates which has left federal banks with little leverage in crisis other than printing money, increased income inequality, and the possibility of increased automation upending employment (though I'm a little skeptical on the latter in the short to medium term).

[Enoch Root]

absolutely - but all of those issues existed before COVID-19, and the economy was able to continue to move forward.

The economy ALWAYS has a lengthy list of of serious problems facing it, but things always move forward.

You are exactly right about the complete lack of infrastructure problems, which is definitely an encouraging factor.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

What? 2008 saw some of the largest financial firms in the world collapse. It was substantially more severe, and complicated, financially, than COVID-19 is.

The challenge now is stimulating the economy to reflate again, once normalcy returns. That is a much more straight-forward problem than some of the issues in 2008.

I would agree but in 2008 normalcy was the next day, with this we could be in for months of waiting for normalcy, months of economic inactivity, add that the effects of years of near zero interest meaning most companies and individuals are deep in hock, even with near zero interest payments you still have to declare chapter 11 if you cant make money for 3 or 4 months.l

You cant fix the economy until the virus has been dealt with, that's the difference

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

I would agree but in 2008 normalcy was the next day, with this we could be in for months of waiting for normalcy, months of economic inactivity, add that the effects of years of near zero interest meaning most companies and individuals are deep in hock, even with near zero interest payments you still have to declare chapter 11 if you cant make money for 3 or 4 months.l

You cant fix the economy until the virus has been dealt with, that's the difference

Normalcy the next day? It took 18 months for the stock market to bottom out because the shocks kept coming and the stress on financial institutions kept building.

After the bottom, there was no cure or solution. There was continued - and very real - concern of government financial failure all over the world. The main pressure of which lasted for several years.

The people that lost their jobs in 2008 had little to no hope that those jobs would return.

2008 was SUBSTANTIALLY worse and deeper than this is likely to be. And last MUCH longer.

[Table 5]

I was in living in NYC during the financial meltdown of 2008, so perhaps that amplified the noise, but in many ways that was much more troubling economically. It was an internal collapse of the entire financial system based on layers of terrible decisions, and shook the foundation and trust of the entire backbone of the US (and therefore the world).

The effects of Coronavirus, on the other hand, was brought on by external forces, at a time when the economy was doing well (at least in the US). There will be of course still be major repercussions, but at least it will be mostly because of economic inactivity, as opposed to a crisis of faith in the entire system.

I think we're extra-hooped in Alberta because the collapse of oil on top of things, but I think many in the US see this more like a pause, as opposed to a total re-assessment of everything they believe. At least, that's my hope!

[Enoch Root]

Yeah Table 5, that is a good synopsis.

Much deeper problems, threatening the very foundations of the global financial systems.

(Hopefully), this is a pause - albeit a very severe and deadly one.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Table 5

I was in living in NYC during the financial meltdown of 2008, so perhaps that amplified the noise, but in many ways that was much more troubling economically. It was an internal collapse of the entire financial system based on layers of terrible decisions, and shook the foundation and trust of the entire backbone of the US (and therefore the world).

The effects of Coronavirus, on the other hand, was brought on by external forces, at a time when the economy was doing well (at least in the US). There will be of course still be major repercussions, but at least it will be mostly because of economic inactivity, as opposed to a crisis of faith in the entire system.

I think we're extra-hooped in Alberta because the collapse of oil on top of things, but I think many in the US see this more like a pause, as opposed to a total re-assessment of everything they believe. At least, that's my hope!

Crises of faith and crisis in the Kremlin? Yeah we'd heard all that before.