09-10-2020, 12:08 PM
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#1
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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Rube's 2022 Degenerate Piece of Garbage Thread (NFL Gambling)
Making a few tweaks to the spreadsheet format this year (I also royally effed up the calculations at the beginning of last year and it threw everything off). Also going to try a "form/snapshot" based system this year.
Anyways, the futures bets I currently like the best based on value are:
DET +500 to win the NFC North
DAL +1473 to win the Super Bowl
DAL +818 to win the NFC Championship
Last edited by rubecube; 09-08-2022 at 12:23 PM.
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09-10-2020, 12:33 PM
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#2
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NOT breaking news
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Calgary
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Dallas? Right away your spreadsheet is wrong.
__________________
Watching the Oilers defend is like watching fire engines frantically rushing to the wrong fire
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09-10-2020, 12:58 PM
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#3
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GirlySports
Dallas? Right away your spreadsheet is wrong.
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Dallas had the second-best point differential in the NFC last year and went 0-5 in one-score games. They were much closer to an 11-12 team than an 8 win team by almost every measure, just insanely unlucky. Their secondary is still suspect, but that offense should be lights out if they even get average QB play out of Dak. Even though I'm not a McCarthy fan, he's a big upgrade on Garrett.
Trust me, as an Eagles fan, I hate admitting all of this, but that's a good football team if they can get out of their own way.
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09-10-2020, 01:17 PM
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#4
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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Lines I like this week:
CAR +3
NE -6.5
BUF -6.5
ATL +2.5
DET -3
MIN -2.5
TB +3.5
DAL -3
Taking KC -10 tonight, which is going against my better judgement. I only say that because I think the lack of preseason is going to hurt offenses for the first few weeks of the year, so I'm wary of double-digit spreads.
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09-11-2020, 01:44 PM
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#5
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Appealing my suspension
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Just outside Enemy Lines
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You survived last night. That damn near ended up a 9 point game if Houston makes that 2 point convert and the Chiefs decide to run out the clock.
Looks like Andy took up betting...he wanted his spread and he needed to the score over 53.
__________________
"Some guys like old balls"
Patriots QB Tom Brady
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09-11-2020, 01:50 PM
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#6
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Maryland State House, Annapolis
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Is there anything scarier to a gambler than garbage time? Many a line or over/under ruined.
__________________
"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
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09-11-2020, 05:39 PM
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#7
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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Trying something new this year, playing road dogs money line if my spread for the game is a touchdown or less. Not spending a lot of money on it, but just a bit of a side experiment. Potentially flips the vig on its head a bit.
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09-11-2020, 06:23 PM
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#8
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Olympic Guru
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: PL1
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I was saved by the garbage time over last night, so it goes both ways.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Back2Back
The Oilers are very close on becoming a powerhouse team.
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09-13-2020, 02:06 PM
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#9
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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Fantastic morning fml
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09-13-2020, 06:24 PM
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#10
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rubecube
Lines I like this week:
CAR +3
NE -6.5
BUF -6.5
ATL +2.5
DET -3
MIN -2.5
TB +3.5
DAL -3
Taking KC -10 tonight, which is going against my better judgement. I only say that because I think the lack of preseason is going to hurt offenses for the first few weeks of the year, so I'm wary of double-digit spreads.
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The first week is always tough and without a preseason it is even tougher. I went 6-6 so far today.
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09-13-2020, 09:51 PM
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#11
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Olympic Guru
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: PL1
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I went 3-3 today... and that’s all it takes to keep me coming back.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Back2Back
The Oilers are very close on becoming a powerhouse team.
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09-17-2020, 11:34 AM
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#12
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Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Crowsnest Pass
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Packers only -6 vs Lions seems way low.
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09-17-2020, 01:01 PM
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#13
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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Quote:
Originally Posted by troutman
Packers only -6 vs Lions seems way low.
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Nah, people are overreacting to the Packers blowing out the Vikings in week 1. Lions only lost by a combined 4 points in their two games against the Packers last year, and one of those games was with their 3rd string QB.
EDIT: But I also went 3-7 last week, so don't necessarily listen to me.
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09-18-2020, 09:04 AM
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#14
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Nostradamus
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: London Ont.
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I was awful until the late Monday night game, took DEN +3 and the over and ended up ahead.
So I decided to make the same last night, Cin +6 and the over and garbage time Joe Burrow got it done!
__________________
agggghhhhhh!!!
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09-18-2020, 09:20 AM
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#15
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by zukes
I was awful until the late Monday night game, took DEN +3 and the over and ended up ahead.
So I decided to make the same last night, Cin +6 and the over and garbage time Joe Burrow got it done!
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That was a gross backdoor cover.
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09-18-2020, 09:42 AM
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#16
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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Yep, I also hit on that filthy cover.
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The Following User Says Thank You to rubecube For This Useful Post:
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09-18-2020, 10:26 AM
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#17
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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Week 2 I generally try to spot overreactions from week 1. So far I have:
CIN +6
DAL -4.5
DEN +7.5
PHI ML
BAL -7
NE +4
LAC +8.5
DET +6
TEN -9
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09-18-2020, 01:08 PM
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#18
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Scoring Winger
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Calgary, AB
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rubecube
Week 2 I generally try to spot overreactions from week 1. So far I have:
CIN +6
DAL -4.5
DEN +7.5
PHI ML
BAL -7
NE +4
LAC +8.5
DET +6
TEN -9
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Joe Burrows back door cover FTW!
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09-20-2020, 11:51 AM
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#19
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NOT breaking news
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Calgary
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Never take Dallas lol
__________________
Watching the Oilers defend is like watching fire engines frantically rushing to the wrong fire
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09-20-2020, 12:08 PM
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#20
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GirlySports
Never take Dallas lol
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I saw Dallas -5.5 and knew that was easy money betting on Atlanta. Unfortunately some of my other bets are not looking too good right now. I need Carolina to start putting up some points.
Philly screwed me today. I expected a lot better from them.
Last edited by calgarygeologist; 09-20-2020 at 02:01 PM.
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