Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Johnny would accept the 6 year deal rather than the 8 year deal at $6M more in total money. Firstly, he could make more that $6M more in years 7-8. Or he could sit at home.

Treliving understands Johnny will get an 8 year deal from Calgary or he’s walking.

So you’re saying Johnnys career earnings will 100% be way more than $6 mil at age 36 plus that he will laugh at the extra $6 mil like it’s nothing?

What are you projecting his career earnings will be at 36 until he retires?

If he takes it now is guaranteed money

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

So you’re saying Johnnys career earnings will 100% be way more than $6 mil at age 36 plus that he will laugh at the extra $6 mil like it’s nothing?

What are you projecting his career earnings will be at 36 until he retires?

If he takes it now is guaranteed money

Yes. Since the cap will go up considerably by then.

Plus, zero chance that any one will try and get him to sign a 6 year deal in UFA.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Yes. Since the cap will go up considerably by then.

Plus, zero chance that any one will try and get him to sign a 6 year deal in UFA.

I agree he will get 7 years by some team in the nhl. But some are asking why Johnny isn’t signed if he wants to stay. I bet it’s more treliving doesn’t want to sign him for 8 years. He gave Monahan 7 years but he’s signed quite a few 6 year deal.

I’d give Johnny 8 years no problem but I’m not Brad Treliving.

I would not give Johnny 8 years and $10mil or more and I don’t think it will take that much either. But I could see Treliving wanting the discount and the desired term. He will not get both just don’t see it so give the term get it done.

Johnny wants high cap hit and term sucks but see ya later. He is great but he’s not $11 mil good until he is 37

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

So you’re saying Johnnys career earnings will 100% be way more than $6 mil at age 36 plus that he will laugh at the extra $6 mil like it’s nothing?

What are you projecting his career earnings will be at 36 until he retires?

If he takes it now is guaranteed money

Do you even compound interest?

If he were to invest that 9M/year for 8 years with an annual interest rate of 6% compounded annually, that contract is worth $103,421,843.85 by the end of the 8th year (for simplicity assume he receives the entirety of his contract at the beginning of the year).

If he were to invest that 11M/year contract with an annual interest rate of 6% compounded annually, that contract is worth $103,744,475.65 by the end of the 8th year - despite not having to have received any salary for years 7 and 8.

Now of course that assumes Gaudreau invests the entirety of his contract.

If we assume that Gaudreau doesn't have lifestyle creep as a result of the difference in contracts and say he uses 3M for himself each year that isn't invested, then it becomes even more pronounced as the 9M/contract sees his investment at $68,947,895.90 by the end of the contract while the 11M/contract sees his investment at $75,450,527.64 by the same period - again not having worked the last 2 years at all.

With any sense of financial fiduciary the 11M/year contract for 6 years is by far better than the 9M/year contract for 8 years. Just as long as he doesn't ask Fedorov or Jack Johnson for financial help.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

I agree he will get 7 years by some team in the nhl. But some are asking why Johnny isn’t signed if he wants to stay. I bet it’s more treliving doesn’t want to sign him for 8 years. He gave Monahan 7 years but he’s signed quite a few 6 year deal.

I’d give Johnny 8 years no problem but I’m not Brad Treliving.

I would not give Johnny 8 years and $10mil or more and I don’t think it will take that much either. But I could see Treliving wanting the discount and the desired term. He will not get both just don’t see it so give the term get it done.

Johnny wants high cap hit and term sucks but see ya later. He is great but he’s not $11 mil good until he is 37

Of course no UFA is generally worth the money they get over a 7-8 year contract.

But if you want to compete for a Stanley Cup, you need to plug your nose and play that game. You can rebuild when the contract stinks.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Of course no UFA is generally worth the money they get over a 7-8 year contract.

But if you want to compete for a Stanley Cup, you need to plug your nose and play that game. You can rebuild when the contract stinks.

I agree. Lose Johnny now and you’re rebuilding and I’m ok with a rebuild now too so why would I care about setting up for a future rebuild? I’m not against it but you need to set yourself up for a good chance at success now too. Makes no sense to sign him for $11 mil for 8 years and put yourself in a position to never have a couple year run at the cup for the entire 8 years

$11 mil is setting up for very little chance now or later. That’s why 8 years is ok if you can squeeze him to around $9 mil. Draft well clean up some cap you have a chance. You’re dreaming if you think signing Johnny for $11 mil for 8 years will allow this team any chance to win now.

How do you tell Tkachuk he’s worth $9 mil? Sign both for $11 mil or trade Tkachuk? No chance this team that already isn’t a lock for the playoffs is getting better with these contracts. Might as well rebuild now if that is the case

Unless you resign Johnny and right after clean house and rebuild? He might be slightly upset about that if that was the plan

8 years is good but I just a bit concerned that Trelivings opinion on this isn’t the same. He has never given anyone including 23 year old Johnny 8 years. 0 contracts in 7 years. IMO that’s why it’s not done. I’m not against 8 years but I’m not Brad Treliving

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

8 years is good but I just a bit concerned that Trelivings opinion on this isn’t the same. He has never given anyone including 23 year old Johnny 8 years. 0 contracts in 7 years. IMO that’s why it’s not done. I’m not against 8 years but I’m not Brad Treliving

Treliving would have loved to sign Johnny for 8 years, Johnny wanted to make sure he was still young enough so his next contract could be for max years.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

That’s why this is a discussion board, and why there are rumour threads. And why the basis of this entire website you made is to launch opinions and discuss and debate.

Nobody knows anything about anything. This is true. Time to close up CP then?

There is probably a way of discussing things on a message board without acting like you have the situation completely figured out from a vantage point you don't have taking an arrogant posture you probably shouldn't use.

[Kidder]

The one thing we cannot do is let Gaudreau walk and then ink Tkachuk to a big long term contract based on this seasons numbers.

Johnny is the one stirring Matthews drink, not the other way around.

I’m also not sure we see this same version of Gaudreau next year when the contract is signed and sealed. But it’s also possible he’s found his complete game under better coaching and will continue to play strong both ways with Sutter at the helm.

Tkachuk without Gaudreau will revert back to less than point per game. Still a strong forward but no where near what his salary demands will suggest.

I don’t know what will happen. But have enjoyed watching Johnny for most of his career here. This season especially.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I thought that was a very bizarre post by Bingo myself.

Johnny and Chucky’s future with the team is the biggest issue that hangs over this organization. If these guys decide to move on which both can do easily then this team is done and it is time to rebuild. If both decide to sign long term deals than this team is in it to win it for the next several seasons.

I don’t find it funny at all that this thread has dragged out regardless of the information because it is the most critical crossroads this team will face in a decade.

It's important as hell, don't disagree at all.

But how can you have an argument about a GM's incompetence without having a clue what was said, offered, countered, and turned down?

It's just silly to me.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Treliving would have loved to sign Johnny for 8 years, Johnny wanted to make sure he was still young enough so his next contract could be for max years.

I’ll have to take your word for it. Pretty sure if he offered more per year he could have got 8 years

This next one needs to be 8 years just not at $11 mil per.

[dissentowner]

I still think it gets done, 9.5 x 8. I still cannot believe BT would let it get this far without knowing one way or another he could get the deal done before UFA.

[chedder]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

I still think it gets done, 9.5 x 8. I still cannot believe BT would let it get this far without knowing one way or another he could get the deal done before UFA.

You have more faith in the gm than many.

My bet is he has known for a while that Johnny will test free agency.

In Treliving's mind keeping Johnny here for one last hail mary was his best option.

And as I said before, I believe Tre knows he's a dead man walking in his job as gm.

I do hope you're right though!

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

I still think it gets done, 9.5 x 8. I still cannot believe BT would let it get this far without knowing one way or another he could get the deal done before UFA.

Of course ownership may have given him orders not to trade him.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

I’ll have to take your word for it. Pretty sure if he offered more per year he could have got 8 years

This next one needs to be 8 years just not at $11 mil per.

The cost of those extra years would have been enormous, as it would have crippled Johnny reaching UFA at the age of 31. At that stage, he would have to accept a 5 year deal, and likely with no prime years potentially left, way less dollars.

Players want to become UFA young enough to hit a HR contract. Teams need to pay a huge premium to convince them to give up that option.

[Heavy Jack]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

I still think it gets done, 9.5 x 8. I still cannot believe BT would let it get this far without knowing one way or another he could get the deal done before UFA.

Fully agree. The sky has been falling with Johnny ever since we drafted him and he has shown we’ve had nothing to worry about every time. It’s funny to me the panic at the notion of Johnny testing UFA when a very large portion of this forum was ready to ship Johnny out for ‘anything’ to at least get ‘something’ the past two years.

So happy the Johnny we know and love showed up this year and good on him for playing the best hockey of his career when it matters most but I still think he signs the 8 year deal he can only get with Calgary and passes on UFA.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Of course ownership may have given him orders not to trade him.

They probably are giving orders to sign him, he is a merchandise cash cow as well.

[dustygoon]

One way to answer this question rather than say don’t ask me (Poile from 32 thoughts):

Asked if he would keep an unsigned Forsberg past the deadline, the GM replied, “I don’t want to box myself in with an answer. It’s not my preference, but I’d never say never.”

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Example, someone said recently:

“He could’ve easily signed Mangiapane and possibly even Matthew Tkachuk to long term sweetheart deals a few years back and would only have to deal with Gaudreau and Kylington this time around with a lot more cap flexibility.”

Not only is this not a hypothetical, it’s not even a correct recollection of the cap situation when Tkachuk and Mangiapane signed their RFA deals. And in Tkachuk’s case, I’m pretty sure the term was exactly what he wanted and he stood fast on it.

If I’m not mistaken, this is my quote you’ve posted here.

And yes, it’s my belief that the Flames at the time, had the option of inking both players to long term deals. The team had the cap space going into the offseason, but the cap space was allocated elsewhere.

I mean, it is the GMs job to forecast his salary cap picture years ahead and part of that is to make long term deals in hopes that foundation players will out perform his contract. That’s certainly the case with Rasmus Andersson, but he decided not to with Mangiapane who happens to be an RFA on pace for 40 goals.

[djsFlames]

Remember when Gaudreau wasn't on that top 100 NHL players list in the offseason?