2018/2019 Trade Speculation and Rumors

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Captaincanada80

Way I see EK sweepstakes right now:

30% Dallas
25% Vegas
10% Colorado
10% Tampa Bay
5% Buffalo
5% New Jersey
5% Edmonton
5% Vancouver
5% Other

Unless Nurse is going the other way, I'd say that Edmonton's chances of being in the sweep stakes are effectively zero. Especially since they wouldn't be able to resign him, and the lure of playing on a two man team with Connor won't get him to go there.


He's not going to go to Vancouver because its a team full of losers, sorry let me fix that its a loser team.





He's going to Vegas.

[GreenLantern2814]

When you go to the Finals in your first year of existence, and the opportunity presents itself to acquire the best D on the planet in year two, pay what it takes and spend the next eight years selling yachtloads of #65 sweaters.

[wretched34]

Originally Posted by bax

Don't get me wrong, I despise the Oilers as much as anybody, but I won't let rose colored glasses prevent me from accurately judging players. If you think RNH is more valuable than Draisaitl then I just think you are flat out wrong.

25 year old center
career high of 56 points 4 seasons ago
6"00 191 pounds
Not bad defensively, but prone to being pushed off the puck and out muscled down low

22 year old center
career high of 77 points 2 seasons ago
6'02 215 pounds
Not the best skater, but big body that can protect the puck and not get pushed around

Which player looks more valuable here? And I understand the McDavid inflation, but even taking that into consideration there is no way Draisaitl is less valuable than RNH.

If Ottawa could secure a core piece like Draisaitl locked up long term for Karlsson (a soon to be UFA) that would be a massive win. When was the last time a trade like that happened? Unfortunately for Ottawa they are most likely looking at getting a mediocre roster player, some high picks, and some strong prospects. It's just the nature of trading a soon to be UFA.

Draisaitl, although less productive without McDavid still put up 2.27 P/60 at 5 on 5. I don't know who he was playing with, but if it wasn't McDavid I can't imagine his line mates were very good. That is roughly 48 even strength points. Over the last two seasons he has averaged 21 points on the power play per season so add that to his even strength total and we are looking at 69 points.

(credit to JoeThorntonsRooster from HF on the stats)

69 points isn't "elite" but it's still very good production. So going around calling him a 50 point center really isn't accurate at all.

Look, I hope the Oilers fall apart like they do every year, but I can clearly see that Draisaitl and his contract are not what is wrong with that team. It's their poorly constructed defense, their lack of forward depth, their slow and ineffective bottom rotation forwards, and terrible special teams.

Ottawa would love to get a player like Draisaitl in a Karlsson deal and he is quite clearly more valuable than RNH.

This is where I think advanced stats become more about spreadsheets than the actual game.
Those stats say Draisaitl would put up an average of 48 points per season at 5 on 5 without McDavid, and an average of 21 points on the powerplay (which he plays with McDavid). Making him a 69 point per year center. Which hey, is a very solid top line center.
Now, my issue is, last year, Draisaitl put up 70 points, and the year before he had 77. All the while, more than half his even strength ice time was with McDavid, and the vast majority of his PP time was with McDavid. So how can you say Draisaitl is a 69 point player without McDavid, when he's a 74 point player with McDavid? Sometimes real stats need to be considered over "Fancy" stats.
Draisaitl without McDavid is an Average top 2 Center. He hasn't proven otherwise.
And to be completely honest, I wouldn't be surprised if RNH becomes a 70 point player with McDavid, he made Maroon a near 30 goal scorer...
The McDavid effect is real. It's not rose colored glasses.
I guess the value to another team depends on the position you need to fill.
Want a solid 50+ point 2 way center, or a 50+ point offensive center? Do you want to pay less for the more complete player, or more for the unproven player.

[activeStick]

The Flames dealing with Toronto makes me nervous as we've gotten fleeced badly twice but to be fair, those were thanks to Button and Darryl Sutter. Would love to have Treliving change that.

[bax]

Originally Posted by wretched34

This is where I think advanced stats become more about spreadsheets than the actual game.
Those stats say Draisaitl would put up an average of 48 points per season at 5 on 5 without McDavid, and an average of 21 points on the powerplay (which he plays with McDavid). Making him a 69 point per year center. Which hey, is a very solid top line center.
Now, my issue is, last year, Draisaitl put up 70 points, and the year before he had 77. All the while, more than half his even strength ice time was with McDavid, and the vast majority of his PP time was with McDavid. So how can you say Draisaitl is a 69 point player without McDavid, when he's a 74 point player with McDavid? Sometimes real stats need to be considered over "Fancy" stats.
Draisaitl without McDavid is an Average top 2 Center. He hasn't proven otherwise.
And to be completely honest, I wouldn't be surprised if RNH becomes a 70 point player with McDavid, he made Maroon a near 30 goal scorer...
The McDavid effect is real. It's not rose colored glasses.
I guess the value to another team depends on the position you need to fill.
Want a solid 50+ point 2 way center, or a 50+ point offensive center? Do you want to pay less for the more complete player, or more for the unproven player.

Agree to disagree I suppose. I don't see why it is considered a fault that he clicks with McDavid when Hall, Eberle, and others didn't put up outlandish numbers with him. Sometimes chemistry is important. We will see this year if RNH has it.

And these aren't fancy stats, they are hard numbers and point totals. I'm not looking at possession or shot metrics or high danger chances. Sure he played with McDavid on the power play, but they also had a god awful power play last year. Do you subtract 20 points from Monahan because he plays with Gaudreau?

No matter how you slice it, calling Draisaitl a 50 point player is disingenuous at best. His points per 60 is higher with McDavid obviusly, but it isn't a dramatic difference. In reality there is no way he will be traded for an unsigned Karlsson or be deemed less valuable than RNH.

[getbak]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

Elliotte Friedman@FriedgeHNIC

Erik Karlsson reached out to say: it is not accurate that he is unwilling to sign long-term with a Canadian team.

He's not unwilling to sign with all the Canadian teams, just the ones that wear blue helmets.

[djsFlames]

So who was the no good source that made up the rumour about him boycotting Canada? Throw them in Twitter jail with poignetta!

[868904]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Unless Nurse is going the other way, I'd say that Edmonton's chances of being in the sweep stakes are effectively zero. Especially since they wouldn't be able to resign him, and the lure of playing on a two man team with Connor won't get him to go there.


He's not going to go to Vancouver because its a team full of losers, sorry let me fix that its a loser team.





He's going to Vegas.

The Canucks may have been sucking for a while but they have good young pieces that could be appealing for a quick turnaround. Boeser is a legitimate star, Horvat is an established 2nd line centre and EK will be well aware of Pettersen’s potential. They have a good young goalie who is close to ready and other prospects on par with most other teams. They also have a tone of cap space for EK and other signings.

I think the Canucks are more likely to compete than the oilers are honestly.

[CaptainCrunch]

I think the Canucks have some nice pieces but its not enough pieces. I expect them to compete for the bottom of the division with the Yotes.


They might not stink as much as last year, but there's still that elegant waft of steaming hot rot.

[Oling_Roachinen]

They lost the Sedins. Their 1st and 3rd highest scorers. Boeser was already on pace for 40 goals, with the Sedins, and they were a tirefire. They also lost Vanek, not that it should be a huge deal, but he was firmly one of their top 6. That's 3 of their top six gone and replaced with a single rookie.

Forget the Calder, if Petersson doesn't win the Art Ross and Selke this year, I can't see them doing anything of note.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

When you go to the Finals in your first year of existence, and the opportunity presents itself to acquire the best D on the planet in year two, pay what it takes and spend the next eight years selling yachtloads of #65 sweaters.

Believing that Karlsson is the best d-man on the planet and is worth whatever it takes to sign him (and presumably paying picks and prospects to get him), is a good way to guarantee you won't make it back to the finals anytime soon.

[Samonadreau]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I think the Canucks have some nice pieces but its not enough pieces. I expect them to compete for the bottom of the division with the Yotes.


They might not stink as much as last year, but there's still that elegant waft of steaming hot rot.

without the sedins, they may be just as bad as last year.

[Redrum]

Originally Posted by Samonadreau

without the sedins, they may be just as bad as last year.

Which sucks because that will give them some more nice pieces. Ah well, enjoy it while we can I guess, and hope that Jim keeps taking Juolevis over Tkachuks.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by activeStick

The Flames dealing with Toronto makes me nervous as we've gotten fleeced badly twice but to be fair, those were thanks to Button and Darryl Sutter. Would love to have Treliving change that.

If you're referring to the Gilmour trade (one of the worst in history) that wasn't Button, that was the moron called Risebrough.

[Mr.Coffee]

I could see how if Colorado picked up Karlsson without giving up too much- they’d be way, way better. Seems like D has been a weakness on that team for awhile.

[Lumby Lager]

Originally Posted by activeStick

The Flames dealing with Toronto makes me nervous as we've gotten fleeced badly twice but to be fair, those were thanks to Button and Darryl Sutter. Would love to have Treliving change that.

What is the trade Button made that you are referring too? I know of a massive mistake by Risebrough, could that be the one you are thinking of?

[DomeFoam]

Originally Posted by the2bears

They get that now because Chia overpaid. Draisatl isn't getting the going rate, he set it when Chia panicked.

Draisaitl may have apparently set the rate for comparable players at the time, but his closest comparable right now, Jack Eichel, manages to make a full $1.5M more than him at $10M, signing his contract with Buffalo within two months of Draisaitl's extension with the Oilers so really Buffalo took the 'going rate' and said hold my beer.

The 2016/17 season reflecting Draisaitl and Eichels perceived worth for their new contracts saw them produce at a .94 and .93 PPG clip, respectively, so really Eichel's $10M is now the standard for that calibre of player.

Chia didn't overpay, 78 points is an incredible feat no matter what. The fact that it wasn't an anomaly the following season just confirms his ability as a player.

[Samonadreau]

Eichel is a stud. if Eichel was playing a bunch of games on Mcdavids wing he'd have close to 100 points.

[Love]

I'd much rather have Draisaitl at 8 than Monahan at 6.35 ngl

[N-E-B]

Originally Posted by Love

I'd much rather have Draisaitl at 8 than Monahan at 6.35 ngl

This is unbelievably absurd.

6 more points* is worth over $2mil/year extra to you...? Because I think their defensive game is relatively similar, in that they're both good but not outstanding.

Again, absurd.

*Monahan likely would have outscored him had he not been broken for 20 games.