[Signing] Oilers extend F Leon Draisaitl (8x$14M AAV)

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by dino7c

I keep saying it but Florida has a #1 dman and their top goal scorer signed for 14M combined. Their depth will win every time even if the Oilers have a slightly higher top end.

You keep saying it and it means nothing.

Who is giving the Oilers a Barkov + for Drais?

So the only team better then the Oilers last season has a better structure because they have one of the top 3 all round centers on their team at a great contract. That's not easy to replicate. That why Florida won the cup.

The problem is finding a trading partner when both sides want to be competitive and somehow make your team better. The fact you can't think of a single team this makes sense for shows why it doesnt really make sense.

The offers would have been massive in total assets, but not for players the Oilers need to help them now, and not for 1 year of control (The acquiring team would have to be sure he was signing)

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

So the consensus in some circles is that a guy who has averaged 50 goals and 68 assists for 118 points per 82 games played over the last 6 seasons getting signed longterm to contract is a bad thing?

Yes, because that was the prime of a superstar player, which is now over, or certainly will be after the current deal expires.

Originally Posted by Jason14h

So the Oilers, who made it to game 7 of the cup should have traded Drais to Nashville for.... Picks and spects because Nashville would want 1 year of Drais because they are .... closer to winning the cup next year then Edmonton? Because Nashville sure wouldnt trade core players for 1 year.

That would have been good to ensure McDavid also leaves I guess!

That doesnt sound very smart for the Oilers.

Still waiting for a single trade proposal that makes more sense for Edmonton then just resigning Drais

I wouldn't pay big money for decline years. They had year after year of two superstars in their prime and got to the Finals once. There is a case to be made to do nothing, take another crack at it this year, and let him leave if the options were 8 years or leave.

Here is the list of top scorers from 2019-20, as an example. How many 33-year-olds do you see on this list? It's less than 10% of the list. That will be Draisaitl's age not even halfway into this deal; the new generation will have taken over by then.



They paid 11.3% of cap for the prime age 22-29 years and now they're going to pay 15.2% of cap for the decline age 30-37 years. Which of those two do you think will be the better deal for the team?

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

You keep saying it and it means nothing.

Who is giving the Oilers a Barkov + for Drais?

So the only team better then the Oilers last season has a better structure because they have one of the top 3 all round centers on their team at a great contract. That's not easy to replicate. That why Florida won the cup.

The problem is finding a trading partner when both sides want to be competitive and somehow make your team better. The fact you can't think of a single team this makes sense for shows why it doesnt really make sense.

The offers would have been massive in total assets, but not for players the Oilers need to help them now, and not for 1 year of control (The acquiring team would have to be sure he was signing)

Barkov? who is talking about Barkov. Reinhart is 28, scored 57 goals, and just signed for 8.6 (Now that is a deal) Just an example of what you need to compete with.
I mean there is a lot that goes into it...the Oilers played a team with their 3rd stringer in net and their top goal scorer out in game 7 of round 2 and won by one goal.
And I keep saying it because I'm right...yeah the Oilers went to the finals and almost won. WITH DRAI IN HIS 20s AT 8.5M

I can't stress this last part enough

Oilers blowing up their cap to keep the OLD team (Oldest in the NHL) that hasn't won Vs. teams with players coming into their primes on value contracts

They have one, maybe two cracks...maybe one crack during this deal. Bump this in 3 seasons, the Oilers are middling IMO

[looooob]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

So the consensus in some circles is that a guy who has averaged 50 goals and 68 assists for 118 points per 82 games played over the last 6 seasons getting signed longterm to contract is a bad thing?

Draisaitl now with 3 50 goal seasons and 5 100 point seasons, I have to/hate to admit is now in ridiculous company the group of people that have done that are: Gretzky, Lemieux, Dionne, Bossy, Kurri, Lafleur, Yzerman, Esposito, Jagr. inner circle stuff


between them the other guys have 54 50 goal seasons and 68 100 point seaons! of these 8/54 50 goal seasons were turned in after 30 (Esposito, Jagr, Lemieux, Dionne) and 12/68 100 points seasons (same names plus Gretzky) last at 33


suspect the next 4 years or so (including the one year he's on the last contract) we will continue to see elite production. the back half likely not?

[Strange Brew]

It's a 32 team league, getting to the finals isn't easy. Winning a Cup is even harder.

If you have to sacrifice 4 years at the back end of the deal you do it if you think it gives you 3 or 4 good looks at a championship. There really was no other option.

He wasn't good in the finals but his career playoff pace over 82 games is 45 goals and 120 points.

[butterfly]

Age curves matter, and people do not simply replicate the past when they are post-apex.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by looooob

Draisaitl now with 3 50 goal seasons and 5 100 point seasons, I have to/hate to admit is now in ridiculous company the group of people that have done that are: Gretzky, Lemieux, Dionne, Bossy, Kurri, Lafleur, Yzerman, Esposito, Jagr. inner circle stuff


between them the other guys have 54 50 goal seasons and 68 100 point seaons! of these 8/54 50 goal seasons were turned in after 30 (Esposito, Jagr, Lemieux, Dionne) and 12/68 100 points seasons (same names plus Gretzky) last at 33


suspect the next 4 years or so (including the one year he's on the last contract) we will continue to see elite production. the back half likely not?

Around 1/6 of the elite seasons were posted after 30, so I wouldn't bet on it and I'm glad the Oilers did. And without looking, I would guess that they all were a decline from each player's peak season.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Multiple Oiler fans and media said he would be taking 12.5-13M

today its a bargain though, funny how that works

Draisaitl was willing to settle for 12.5 million, but he generously gave a discount all the way down to 14 million.

Also, Big Brother has raised the chocolate ration from 30 grams to 20 grams. Praise Big Brother!

[InternationalVillager]

I wonder how many people on here think McDavid is not worth $16M per year for the next 8 years on his extension.

Both Draisaitl + McDavid are going to be well above point per game and trend down towards point per game towards the end of their career....which is beyond the expiry of these contract extensions.

These are ridiculous takes. Draisaitl has earned every penny of his extension. What is Edmonton supposed to do? Let him walk?

Originally Posted by looooob

Draisaitl now with 3 50 goal seasons and 5 100 point seasons, I have to/hate to admit is now in ridiculous company the group of people that have done that are: Gretzky, Lemieux, Dionne, Bossy, Kurri, Lafleur, Yzerman, Esposito, Jagr. inner circle stuff


between them the other guys have 54 50 goal seasons and 68 100 point seaons! of these 8/54 50 goal seasons were turned in after 30 (Esposito, Jagr, Lemieux, Dionne) and 12/68 100 points seasons (same names plus Gretzky) last at 33

Yet posters on here think he's going to fall off a cliff in the next few years. lol. He will be a point per game player atleast for his entire career.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

I wonder how many people on here think McDavid is not worth $16M per year for the next 8 years on his extension.

Both Draisaitl + McDavid are going to be well above point per game and trend down towards point per game towards the end of their career....which is beyond the expiry of these contract extensions.

These are ridiculous takes. Draisaitl has earned every penny of his extension. What is Edmonton supposed to do? Let him walk?



Yet posters on here think he's going to fall off a cliff in the next few years. lol. He will be a point per game player atleast for his entire career.

My guess is this post doesn't age well. The best player and scorer of all time was under PPG at 38

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

These are ridiculous takes. Draisaitl has earned every penny of his extension. What is Edmonton supposed to do? Let him walk?

Yet posters on here think he's going to fall off a cliff in the next few years. lol. He will be a point per game player atleast for his entire career.

So 515 points in 656 games? I can see that. That deserves 15.2% of cap?

Why are you paying him for the past when the contract is for what hasn't happened yet?

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by dino7c

My guess is this post doesn't age well. The best player and scorer of all time was under PPG at 38

The best player of all time was physically broken at 38 in an era of hockey which doesn't exist anymore.

BTW this contract ends with Draisaitl at 36. Not old at all for an elite player. Crosby is older than that right now.

Originally Posted by butterfly

So 515 points in 656 games? I can see that. That deserves 15.2% of cap?

Why are you paying him for the past when the contract is for what hasn't happened yet?

Why were we offering Johnny Gaudreau - 8 years x $10.5M for which was the largest contract in Flames history at that time.

It's just how the business works. The player has spent his entire career with the team and was actually underpaid on his last contract. The same player ends up getting a little overpaid on their UFA contract.

[dino7c]

Honestly I think McDavid stays but if he doesn't I bet you that is an instant 20 points off Drai's totals. Go look at the stats with and without.

[butterfly]

Let's test that logic...

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

These are ridiculous takes. Draisaitl Huberdeau has earned every penny of his extension. What is Edmonton Calgary supposed to do? Let him walk?

Trade him for a haul at age 29. Otherwise, yes. Seems ridiculous now, sure.

Look how many people were celebrating in this thread: https://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthread.php?t=189071

Nothing against any of those posters who were likely just excited, but these are extremely risky deals at ages like this.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

The best player of all time was physically broken at 38 in an era of hockey which doesn't exist anymore.



Why were we offering Johnny Gaudreau - 8 years x $10.5M for which was the largest contract in Flames history at that time.

It's just how the business works. The player has spent his entire career with the team and was actually underpaid on his last contract. The same player ends up getting a little overpaid on their UFA contract.

I didn't want to bring it up because of current events but lets forget the name for a second.

We would have been thrilled about that deal at the time because he was choosing to stay. It would have been a bad contract in hindsight.

If I ever ran an NHL team I would make bold moves...no long term deals to players in their 30s. Its far more likely they don't work out and you are paying for past results. This strategy would be a net positive for sure.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

Why were we offering Johnny Gaudreau - 8 years x $10.5M for which was the largest contract in Flames history at that time.

It's just how the business works. The player has spent his entire career with the team and was actually underpaid on his last contract. The same player ends up getting a little overpaid on their UFA contract.

How it used to work. You'll see it change as GMs wake up and we get more smart people like Eric Tulsky. MLB used to give out these ridiculous contracts and they don't exist anymore because they don't work. I think Albert Pujols was probably the last one.

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Let's test that logic...



Trade him for a haul at age 29. Otherwise, yes. Seems ridiculous now, sure.

Look how many people were celebrating in this thread: https://forum.calgarypuck.com/showthread.php?t=189071

Nothing against any of those posters who were likely just excited, but these are extremely risky deals at ages like this.

LOL Draisaitl is no Huberdeau.

This is so so so bad.

I bet you if Huberdeau was still in Florida, he would still be lighting it up.

[dino7c]

Drai had 106 last year even...that is debatable value @ 14M
7th in scoring playing with McDavid

Florida signed their 57 goal scorer for 8.6, media should be absolutely gushing over that deal if Drai is such a good guy contract

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Drai had 106 last year even...that is debatable value @ 14M
7th in scoring

Cap freeze ended this year. It's the first year of an increase in a long time up to $88M and is projected to continue increasing into the mid $90Ms.

Agents take the average % of cap during the life of the contract as a barometer for negotiation. That's how they get to the AAV. It's not whether his 106 points were worth $14M last year.

NHL contracts in general will start to get higher and higher. the old $8M will be the new $10M etc.

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Drai had 106 last year even...that is debatable value @ 14M
7th in scoring playing with McDavid

Florida signed their 57 goal scorer for 8.6 media should be absolutely gushing over that deal if Drai is such a good contract

Outlier.

He knows it. Florida knows it. And it's reflected in the contract AAV.

His previous career high was 33 goals. And even though he scored 57 goals, he didn't crack 100 points.

Sam Reinhart cooked on the PP last year LARGELY as a beneficiary of Barkov and Tkachuk. Watch the tape.