Who are the Calgary Flames?

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Basically this team is an "average" bottom D-pairing short of being a legit title contender.

And improved fourth lines. And improved RW depth and improved (or proven) goaltending.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Please explain how that's a red flag.

More of an indictment of possession stats, IMO.

As Street Pharmacist notes, being a poor possession team generally leads to poor results. While we are a serious outlier this year, that does not mean we can continue to be so indefinitely. This is something that I believe the Flames will improve upon as they get more experience, bigger, stronger, faster, etc. However it is just one issue on top of unsustainable performances in the third, when trailing after two, within the division, etc.

What the Flames are doing now is pretty amazing. I think a lot of these factors will balance out next year such that we might have a similar record, but without the really odd statistical breakdowns.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

But in fairness, 7-0 against ARI and EDM

Having those 2 bottom feeders in our division helps but the Flames are killing it in general against the Pacific going 14-3-1. They have best LA all 3 games, are 2-1 against the Sharks, 1-1-1 against the Nucks, and 1-1 against the Ducks

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

And improved fourth lines. And improved RW depth and improved (or proven) goaltending.

Actually, I think our current 4th line is pretty good compared to most teams around the league. I agree we need a RW or two.

I also think that we don't quite have elite level scoring on the top lines - JG and Monahan are currently very good, and may become elite with Bennett et al, but the contenders (like Anaheim, Pittsburgh, NYI, Chicago) all have a step above that. Hudler is the only other guy who has real offensive talent and he's not elite. Colborne I could see slowly developing into a good offensive guy.

[DoubleF]

Originally Posted by Murph

The Flames are a counter-attacking team by design. I think management and the coaching staff took a look at the players they had, and rather than try to play the "Western Conference style" of rough and tumble, wear-‘em-down hockey, they decided to go another way. Rather than try to be something they weren’t and inevitably fail, they decided to play to the teams biggest strengths:

I like that comparison. Similar in boxing where you can go for a counter which is high risk/high reward but also requires for you to take a few while you look for the perfect opening.

Not sure if this was what you were getting at, but I like your points

[memphusk]

Originally Posted by DoubleF

Bro G?

I think Hartley works best with nicknames ending in "ee" sounds.

Brodano sounds like an Italian food or something.

How about Brodie and Giordano?

[DoubleF]

Originally Posted by memphusk

How about Brodie and Giordano?

The best response

Not sure why people have to combine names for a pairing. It's like a weird Hollywood thing I feel. Like a weird Brangelina love reference.

I'd love to at least argue Bro G is separate? :P But I like Gio + Brodie better in general.


Personal thing: I hate the Brodano and Boblieve monikers.

[Frank MetaMusil]

Some strange similarities to the 85/86 season.

The Flames coach is named Bob in both cases.

A rookie goalie has caught fire. (Ortio vs. Vernon)

In both cases, the franchise scoring leader who wore number 12 had been traded.

Both teams saw a lengthy losing streak (8 and 11 games respectively)

Both teams had a rookie in the Calder race (Suter vs. Gaudreau)

If this team gets into the playoffs they could be a dark horse pick.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

The exception doesn't prove the validity of possession.

There will always be exceptions.

Here are some facts:

-Elite teams are ALWAYS in the top for corsi%.
-Teams in the top 5 in corsi% almost always make the playoffs and teams in the bottom 5 rarely do

There's a very strong correlation. That doesn't mean that poor corsi teams can't make the playoffs not does it mean that good corsi teams will. We're speaking about probabilities here, not absolutes.

Is a 90 year old smoker an indictment of the belief that smoking can kill you?

Easy now, those aren't even remotely similar.

Statistical fact: smoking significantly increases the likelihood of many diseases and significantly reduces life expectancy (causal)

Corsi correlates to possession, which correlates to winning (and the correlations aren't that strong)

The Flames are not the outlier in an otherwise statistical fact, they are a team that typically has more success when they are outshot than when they outshoot. That is all we know here.

[GGG]

Great write up.

One thing you didn't consider was our PP and PK statistics. While the raw % numbers aren't great our ration of PP to PK is 2nd in the league. For every 1 minute of PK we have 1.2 minutes of PP time

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/st...cy-ratio/2014/

so despite being 26 in the league on the PK and 20 in league on the PP it allows us to have an even Power play differential with 26 GF and 26 GA and be right in the mid pack in terms of special team results.

I think if we can improve either the power play or the penalty kill to mid pack and maintain the rates we draw and take penalites in can be a reason why this team is successful.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Frank MetaMusil

Some strange similarities to the 85/86 season.

The Flames coach is named Bob in both cases.

A rookie goalie has caught fire. (Ortio vs. Vernon)

In both cases, the franchise scoring leader who wore number 12 had been traded.

Both teams saw a lengthy losing streak (8 and 11 games respectively)

Both teams had a rookie in the Calder race (Suter vs. Gaudreau)

If this team gets into the playoffs they could be a dark horse pick.

Now if only the opposing team's D can score an decent own goal at a critical time.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by GGG

Great write up.

One thing you didn't consider was our PP and PK statistics. While the raw % numbers aren't great our ration of PP to PK is 2nd in the league. For every 1 minute of PK we have 1.2 minutes of PP time

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/st...cy-ratio/2014/

so despite being 26 in the league on the PK and 20 in league on the PP it allows us to have an even Power play differential with 26 GF and 26 GA and be right in the mid pack in terms of special team results.

I think if we can improve either the power play or the penalty kill to mid pack and maintain the rates we draw and take penalites in can be a reason why this team is successful.

Plus the PK is improving - no goals last night. Stajan and Backlund have improved it. I do think it's where the defensive weakness of the 2nd pairing shows up more.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Having those 2 bottom feeders in our division helps but the Flames are killing it in general against the Pacific going 14-3-1. They have best LA all 3 games, are 2-1 against the Sharks, 1-1-1 against the Nucks, and 1-1 against the Ducks

7-3-1 against the 4 teams you are competing against for playoffs is a really good record for any team if you start excluding wins against the bottom 8 teams in the league.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by GGG

Great write up.

One thing you didn't consider was our PP and PK statistics. While the raw % numbers aren't great our ration of PP to PK is 2nd in the league. For every 1 minute of PK we have 1.2 minutes of PP time

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nhl/st...cy-ratio/2014/

so despite being 26 in the league on the PK and 20 in league on the PP it allows us to have an even Power play differential with 26 GF and 26 GA and be right in the mid pack in terms of special team results.

I think if we can improve either the power play or the penalty kill to mid pack and maintain the rates we draw and take penalites in can be a reason why this team is successful.

I actually got all the raw numbers and was going to put it in, but it has been hashed pretty good in another thread. The Flames have played 90 more minutes on the PP than the PK. That's nuts. Being not good at either is minimized by that discrepancy.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Murph

Great post SP, here’s my take...

The Flames are a counter-attacking team by design. I think management and the coaching staff took a look at the players they had, and rather than try to play the "Western Conference style" of rough and tumble, wear-‘em-down hockey, they decided to go another way. Rather than try to be something they weren’t and inevitably fail, they decided to play to the teams biggest strengths:

- team speed and,
- fast, offensive defensemen.

A counter-attacking style is one that plays to these strengths. Pressure the puck with one man while everyone else clogs the middle of the defensive zone with bodies and sticks. Then let the other team try to get a puck through and when you get the bounce you’re looking for, be it a blocked shot, a turnover, or a save with possession of the rebound, haul ass up ice as a single unit, defensemen included.

Aside from it being obvious when you watch the games, there are four stat lines that I think emphasize this:

- Blocked shots – as SP points out, we lead the league in blocked shots
- Turnovers – The Flames are 4th in the league in takeaways
- Shot selection – As SP points out, we have higher than average number of shots from the high slot – shots that are likely to come off the rush.
- Points by defensemen – Giordano, Brodie and Wideman are all in the top 20.

In deciding to play this way, management and coaching have accepted that the teams Corsi stats will be poor (not that they care about Corsi) – but the results also point to the inherent flaw in the way Corsi stats are calculated. Corsi gives equal weight to a shot that hits the net as it does to a shot that doesn’t (i.e. one that is blocked). It is this flaw in the way Corsi is calculated that leads to the poor comparisons that are made between the Flames and the Leafs/Avalanche that SP mentions.

The reason why I think it was a managment/coaching decision to play this style is the emphasis that Treliving placed in the offseason about improving the goaltending. I know it's not revolutionary, but he is on the record as saying that it all starts with the goaltending and he also said that improving the goaltending was his number one priority of the past offseason. You can't play the style described above if you don't have solid goaltending. And imagine that - when this year's Flames get good goaltending they win, and when they don't, they lose.

The long and short of it is – barring an injury to one of the top 4 defensemen, I think the Flames have the horses to play the style of game that they have chosen to play. And so long as they get good goaltending, I think the results so far have shown they’ll make the playoffs doing so.

My two cents…

Another statistic that proves your theory is how bad the third pairing is. They aren't built for counter attack. They are far too slow to jump into the rush and come back effectively, and they cannot make a first pass

[Murph]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Another statistic that proves your theory is how bad the third pairing is. They aren't built for counter attack. They are far too slow to jump into the rush and come back effectively, and they cannot make a first pass

It begs the question - do they go after a defenseman at the trade deadline to try and bring the abilitities of the third pairing more in line with how the Flames play? My guess is that we don't, as the aquisition cost will be too high. Instead I think they will look to the AHL for a solution. I think they will find a guy in Ryan Culkin who might be just what the doctor ordered.

EDIT: Seems I had the right idea with the AHL comment, but wrong d-man, though I still maintain that Culkin gets a shot in the 5/6 slot befor it's all said and done.

[PeteMoss]

The two elements that are 'outside' of the advanced stats that the Flames dominate at are the PP/PK split (as mentioned) and 4 on 4 play.

But I'm at the point that I don't care if its a fluke or not. This is fun.