Average Production By Position in The Lineup: Flames vs. NHL Average

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Like the idea, but in reality, kind of difficult to do comparisons. I like the more simple idea of picking a team that's ahead in goals, say for example the #10 team in goals scored and just comparing their forward depth scoring with our forward depth scoring.

Just chose goals as the barometer instead because it just makes things simpler in regards to the complication of all the unassisted goals, multiple assists and etc. Just easier to compare and see how we stack up to a better goal scoring club.

PLAYER GP G G/GP
Sean Monahan 70 30 0.43
Matt Tkachuk 68 24 0.35
John Gaudreau 71 22 0.31
Micheal Ferland 66 20 0.30
Mikael Backlund 71 13 0.18
Mark Jankowski 61 12 0.20
Sam Bennett 71 11 0.15
Michael Frolik 59 10 0.17
Troy Brouwer 65 5 0.08
Matt Stajan 61 4 0.07
Kris Versteeg 22 3 0.14
G Hathaway 48 2 0.04
Curtis Lazar 54 2 0.04
Jaromir Jagr 22 1 0.05

Flames = 159


PLAYER GP G G/GP
Eric Staal 70 37 0.53
Jason Zucker 70 28 0.40
Mikael Granlund 65 19 0.29
N. Niederreiter 51 16 0.31
Mikko Koivu 70 13 0.19
Charlie Coyle 54 10 0.19
Matt Cullen 68 10 0.15
Chris Stewart 47 9 0.19
Tyler Ennis 66 8 0.12
Marcus Foligno 65 7 0.11
Zach Parise 31 7 0.23
Daniel Winnik 70 6 0.09
Joel Eriksson Ek 63 3 0.05
Zack Mitchell 21 3 0.14
Luke Kunin 19 2 0.11
Landon Ferraro 2 1 0.50

Wild = 179

As you guys can see, we are about 20 goals behind the Wild.


*RATS, chart is not centered properly. Will have to fix it later.

Looking at just goals is interesting - gives a more true stat.

[SuperMatt18]

So based on some of the feedback here I was curious on what a different metric looked like.

Took a look at the top 12 forwards on each team from a scoring perspective and wanted to see what their 5V5 points was.

Ignored position etc but just the top 12 forwards on each team based on 5v5 points.

F1: ~38.6 PTS (Gaudreau - 47)
F2: ~32.9 PTS (Monahan - 38)
F3: ~28.4 PTS (Ferland - 31)
F4: ~26.0 PTS (Tkachuk - 26)
F5: ~23.5 PTS (Backlund - 23)
F6: ~20.6 PTS (Bennett - 23)
F7: ~18.8 PTS (Frolik - 18)
F8: ~16.9 PTS (Jankowski - 16)
F9: ~14.7 PTS (Brouwer - 13)
F10: ~12.5 PTS (Stajan - 10)
F11: ~9.9 PTS (Hathaway - 10)
F12: ~8.2 PTS (Lazar - 7)

So I think what this says to me is that outside of Gaudreau this is a decidedly average roster from an offensive perspective this year. Most players tend to perform in-line with what the average forward on their team ranks.

Once again I feel like Bennett stands out a little as tends to creep into top 6 from a production standpoint - even though he mostly plays 3L minutes.

D1: ~21.4 PTS (Hamilton 24)
D2: ~16.5 PTS (Giordano 20)
D3: ~14.1 PTS (Brodie 16)
D4: ~11.0 PTS (Hamonic 10)
D5: ~9.0 PTS (Kulak 8)
D6: ~7.2 PTS (Stone 4)
D7: ~4.5 PTS (Bartkowski 1)

This one stands out a little to me. With how much we invest in our defense I feel like we should be on the higher end here, specifically pairing 2. Stone really has to be a disappointment from a production standpoint this season too.

I think I will look at the last 5 Stanley Cup champions later too (will probably wait until after the season for that though).

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

So based on some of the feedback here I was curious on what a different metric looked like.

Took a look at the top 12 forwards on each team from a scoring perspective and wanted to see what their 5V5 points was.

Ignored position etc but just the top 12 forwards on each team based on 5v5 points.

F1: ~38.6 PTS (Gaudreau - 47)
F2: ~32.9 PTS (Monahan - 38)
F3: ~28.4 PTS (Ferland - 31)
F4: ~26.0 PTS (Tkachuk - 26)
F5: ~23.5 PTS (Backlund - 23)
F6: ~20.6 PTS (Bennett - 23)
F7: ~18.8 PTS (Frolik - 18)
F8: ~16.9 PTS (Jankowski - 16)
F9: ~14.7 PTS (Brouwer - 13)
F10: ~12.5 PTS (Stajan - 10)
F11: ~9.9 PTS (Hathaway - 10)
F12: ~8.2 PTS (Lazar - 7)

So I think what this says to me is that outside of Gaudreau this is a decidedly average roster from an offensive perspective this year. Most players tend to perform in-line with what the average forward on their team ranks.

Once again I feel like Bennett stands out a little as tends to creep into top 6 from a production standpoint - even though he mostly plays 3L minutes.

I think I will look at the average of the top 6 d-men, and the last 5 Stanley Cup champions later too.

Huh. I would not have thought the Flames forwards would come out average in that calculation.

Maybe it's because they have been so healthy?

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Huh. I would not have thought the Flames forwards would come out average in that calculation.

Maybe it's because they have been so healthy?

We are 19th in ES GF.

So that is pretty close to average, and then probably a slight bump up since the majority of our top 12 has been healthy all season.

[Monahammer]

Thanks for the work on these- this analysis makes more sense then Tierny's take. We should be untrustworthy of any source that makes it look like our forward core is overproducing haha.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by VilleN

And the real drop off happens at Troy Brouwer and below. Clearly our depth scoring is a huge issue.

Yes exactly, Brouwer sits 9th on our team in goals. The Minnesota Wild starting from their 9th forward downwards have scored 37 goals, we have 17 goals starting from the same point. That right there represents the difference in goals.

It's obvious we are a very top heavy team. Who knows where this team would be with an extra 20 goals from the forward group. We'd probably have another 6-7 wins and be right there with Las Vegas fighting for the the Pacific division crown.

[SuperMatt18]

So took another look at this but did it when comparing to just the top 10 teams in the league.

Becomes very clear that this team is missing a top 3/4 forward - which I think validates what we see on the ice and what we thought coming into this season.

If we had one other forward that would push Ferland/Tkachuk down this scale then the point production would all slot accordingly.

Instead F4 through F12 all contribute ~4 points less than what the top 10 teams get out of their forwards in those slots.

F1: ~40 PTS (Gaudreau - 47)
F2: ~36 PTS (Monahan - 38)
F3: ~31 PTS (Ferland - 31)
F4: ~29 PTS (Tkachuk - 26)
F5: ~26 PTS (Backlund - 23)
F6: ~24 PTS (Bennett - 23)
F7: ~22 PTS (Frolik - 18)
F8: ~20 PTS (Jankowski - 16)
F9: ~17 PTS (Brouwer - 13)
F10: ~16 PTS (Stajan - 10)
F11: ~12 PTS (Hathaway - 10)
F12: ~10 PTS (Lazar - 7)

[dino7c]

Need more forward scoring depth....breaking news

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Sean Tierney (The Athletic & Hockey Graphs) posted a pretty interesting analysis on Twitter.

He looked at the entire NHL and the top 31 players at each "slot" on the roster to determine what the average production is by each "role".

ex)Looked at the 31 centers that could be defined as "1C" for their team and averaged their production.

The results are based on offensive production to date this season, I also added the Flames players in brackets next to where they have slotted on our roster for the most part this season.

Center:
1C: ~66 points (Monahan 62)
2C: ~47 points (Backlund 41)
3C: ~37 points (Jankowski 20 ...24 if you pro-rate him to playing all 71 games)
4C: ~19 points (Stajan 10)

Left Wing:
1LW: ~47 points (Gaudreau 80)
2LW: ~26 points (Tkachuk 49)
3LW: ~15 points (Bennett 26)
4LW: ~5 points (Lazar 8)

Right Wing:
1RW: ~49 points (Ferland 37)
2RW: ~21 points (Frolik 23)
3RW: ~8 points (Hathaway 10)
4RW: ~2 points (Brouwer 19)

Defense:

1D: ~40 points (Giordano 36)
2D: ~26 points (Hamilton 40)
3D: ~17 points (Brodie 32)
4D: ~13 points (Hamonic 11)
5D: ~11 points (Stone 5)
6D: ~6 points (Kulak 8)

It's a bit interesting. When you look at slot on the roster only really Gaudreau, Tkachuk (LW in general if you add Bennett), and our Top 3 d-men are performing above what is "average' for their slot on the roster.

As has been clear 1RW continues to be a hole on this team - even though Ferland had filled that spot admirably for the most part.

This analysis would have more relevance if done for the top 16 or 20 teams as these are the team that have a reasonable chance to compete for the SC.

Doesn't help the Backlund extension in that he is a below average scorer for 2C even when counting the rebuilding teams and would likely be below the average points of the top-20 teams 3C

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

This analysis would have more relevance if done for the top 16 or 20 teams as these are the team that have a reasonable chance to compete for the SC.

Doesn't help the Backlund extension in that he is a below average scorer for 2C even when counting the rebuilding teams and would likely be below the average points of the top-20 teams 3C

He's an above average defender though as his Selke voting would indicate. He plays the toughest match ups and in the toughest situations. When you have a line that can force the opposition's top lines to defend instead of playing in the offensive zone. That's a big shift in "field" position and helps your team win hockey games.

As I posted in my original comparison a few posts up, looking at the Minnesota Wild who are the #10th ranked team in goal scoring right now; the biggest difference between them and us is the fact their forwards are getting 20 additional goals from their 9th placed goal scorer down.

In other words, their top 8 goal scorers have produced roughly the same as ours, but after that, their bottom goal scorers are destroying us. The best teams in the league have the forward depth to come at you in waves. They can throw 3 or 4 lines that are hard to defend and can contribute relative to their ice time whereas the Flames just have 2 lines that can do that.

[Classic_Sniper]

Heard an interesting stat the other day that showed the Flames are the #1 ranked team in shots inside the high danger zone at something like 11%.




Yet we are one of the top 5 worst teams in the NHL at converting on our shots at something like 3.8%. Apparently we're in the same category as the Sabres and the Coyotes at efficiency.

Seems about right as that's what my eyes are telling me right now. In the off-season, Tre will definitely need to address our lack of one shot scorers and natural finishers. I would love it if we had just at least one player who could skate down the wing with some speed and absolutely bury a shot past the goalie and into the net. Nobody on our team really has that ability.

[Enoch Root]

Too many of our high danger zone shots are from the side of the net, 1 foot away from the goalie, trying to bang the puck in.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Heard an interesting stat the other day that showed the Flames are the #1 ranked team in shots inside the high danger zone at something like 11%.




Yet we are one of the top 5 worst teams in the NHL at converting on our shots at something like 3.8%. Apparently we're in the same category as the Sabres and the Coyotes at efficiency.

Seems about right as that's what my eyes are telling me right now. In the off-season, Tre will definitely need to address our lack of one shot scorers and natural finishers. I would love it if we had just at least one player who could skate down the wing with some speed and absolutely bury a shot past the goalie and into the net. Nobody on our team really has that ability.

Yeah we are first in the league in shots from those areas with 948.

But rank 29th (11.71%) in the league in converting on those chances from the high danger areas.

Last year the Flames ranked 9th in finishing those chances (14.58%).

That difference in shooting percentage equates to 27 goals. As mentioned part of that might be them getting "lower quality" high danger chances but it's hard to really say what causes that big of a shooting percentage drop.

And it's also a decent stat to be top 5 in looking back. Going back 5 years every Stanley Cup finalist has been at least in the top 10 of generating these chances. Pittsburgh finished top 5 each of the last two seasons.

[Enoch Root]

We want the Corsi Cup!

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

We want the Corsi Cup!

Nah - I'd rather just have more thoughtful discussion about this team than just "Durrrr - fire Gulutzan that guy is an idiot and 100% of the team's problems".

Also a stat that the 2-time defending Stanley Cup champions finished in the top 5 in during the last two seasons can't be all that bad to look at.

[VilleN]

To me, when I look at this I think the clear problem is the production from our bottom 6. It is why I would be apprehensive of firing GG before we see what we'd look like with some decent scoring outside of our top 2 lines. I'm not saying GG is a good coach or a bad coach- I think we don't really know yet, and it makes me nervous to do another coaching reset.

If we could get a guy like JVR, Patches, or even Rick Nash I think this team would be a lot more successful. I think team composition is a bigger issue than coaching right now.

[カナダ人です]

I wonder what the averages are on teams that make the playoffs, which should be the goal. Garbage teams like the Canucks and Coyotes will definitely bring these averages down.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Nah - I'd rather just have more thoughtful discussion about this team than just "Durrrr - fire Gulutzan that guy is an idiot and 100% of the team's problems".

Also a stat that the 2-time defending Stanley Cup champions finished in the top 5 in during the last two seasons can't be all that bad to look at.

If we're going to argue by anecdote, three of the top four teams in the NHL by that stat this season are outside the playoff picture.

That said, I disagree with Enoch Root - Corsi has some value. But it has two major problems: First, it is typically presented in a way that blinds it to a full third of the game (5v5 only), and second, too many people spent a few years trying to treat it as the One True Stat. That created a natural inclination to push back against it.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Nah - I'd rather just have more thoughtful discussion about this team than just "Durrrr - fire Gulutzan that guy is an idiot and 100% of the team's problems".

Also a stat that the 2-time defending Stanley Cup champions finished in the top 5 in during the last two seasons can't be all that bad to look at.

a) there is probably some room in the middle

b) you are data mining - sure, Pitt is there, so are other teams that don't support your narrative.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Yeah we are first in the league in shots from those areas with 948.

But rank 29th (11.71%) in the league in converting on those chances from the high danger areas.

Last year the Flames ranked 9th in finishing those chances (14.58%).

That difference in shooting percentage equates to 27 goals. As mentioned part of that might be them getting "lower quality" high danger chances but it's hard to really say what causes that big of a shooting percentage drop.

And it's also a decent stat to be top 5 in looking back. Going back 5 years every Stanley Cup finalist has been at least in the top 10 of generating these chances. Pittsburgh finished top 5 each of the last two seasons.

Drop in % definitely due in part to a major dip in production from guys like Frolik, Brouwer, Stajan and etc. I agree the "high danger" chances might be lower quality, but I hold the belief that if we had better shooters/snipers, those pucks would be in the back of the net.

We've blown a lot of grade A opportunities this season where I thought many times, how did that no go in? Fact is, we don't have the type of shooters as teams like the Jets who have Laine, Scheifle, Ehlers and etc who can create their own shots and beat goalies from far distances.