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View Poll Results: What do you think of the trade after a week of getting your head around it?
Love it, think Lucic is an upgrade 77 12.94%
Like it, clears some cap space even if Lucic is no better 187 31.43%
Indifferent, both teams getting a failed project 180 30.25%
Dislike it, Neal needed another year to bounce back 103 17.31%
Hate it, Neal will be better in Edmonton 48 8.07%
Voters: 595. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 10-19-2019, 06:52 AM   #3561
Flames1217
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Guys we are getting a third rounder who is going to turn into a superstar.

Stop worrying about zero effort Neal, he will revert to his old self eventually it's a question of time.
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Old 10-19-2019, 08:27 AM   #3562
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Milan Lucic has been just fine for the Flames so far this year. I think the Flames get 56 percent of the shots when he’s on the ice. That’s pretty great, and I think that him having at least a positive impact on possession was predictable based on his underlying numbers from past seasons. Quite a few ppl pointed that out.

But James Neal is having a heck of a season. He has 27 shots so far. He’s on pace for 276 shots (last year, he had 141). If he regresses to his career mean shooting percentage, he’d get 32 goals on the season.

I think Holland has hit this one out of the park. If Neal gets even 21-25 goals, that’s awesome. Even if he does decline in future years, there’s the buyout. Meanwhile, we have a guy that has a positive impact on possession and intimidates for 5.25 million dollars for the next four seasons who cannot be bought out (I’m not gonna mention the expansion draft b/c I’m assuming Treliving has that worked out based on an interview he gave after the trade). Sure, we’ll likely get a 3rd round pick as well, but to me the sum total of $500 K cap space, a 3rd round pick, and a helps-with-possession-and-intimidates player who likely cannot be moved isn't enough to justify trading a potential 30 goal scorer (at least for this year) to our division rival.

Last edited by Nelson; 10-19-2019 at 04:21 PM.
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Old 10-19-2019, 09:50 AM   #3563
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nelson View Post
Milan Lucic has been just fine for the Flames so far this year. I think the Flames get 56 percent of the shots when heís on the ice. Thatís pretty great, and I think that him having at least a positive impact on possession was predictable based on his underlying numbers from past seasons. Quite a few ppl pointed that out.

But James Neal is having a heck of a season. He has 27 shots so far. Heís on pace for 276 shots (last year, he had 141). If he regresses to his career mean shooting percentage, heíd get 32 goals on the season.

I think Holland has hit this one out of the park. If Neal gets even 21-25 goals, thatís awesome. Even if he does decline in future years, thereís the buyout. Meanwhile, we have a guy that has a positive impact on possession and intimidates for 5.25 million dollars for the next four seasons who cannot be bought out (Iím not gonna mention the expansion draft b/c Iím assuming Treliving has that worked out based on an interview he gave after the trade). Sure, weíll likely get a 3rd round pick as well, but to me the sum total of $500 K cap space, a 3rd round pick, and a helps-with-possession-and-intimidates player who likely cannot be moved is enough to justify trading a potential 30 goal scorer (at least for this year) to our division rival.

Is or isnít enough to justify?
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Old 10-19-2019, 11:00 AM   #3564
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It is interesting to think about how to best measure the production of Neal.
The McDavid impact is a very real thing. One almost needs to calculate expected production of a replacement player for the Oilers, such that you are measuring their expected production based on time with McDavid (including PP). Production above that represents the true value.
I’m not saying this tongue in cheek. We’ve seen real example (Chiasson) where McDavid can turn a replacement level player into a 20 goal man.
Neal’s even strength production, when not playing with McD, is a measure of his true effectiveness. And then anything on the PP above what a plug could do.
But there’s no question its been a good trade for them.

Doesn’t change my feelings much about it. I had my doubts that he would reach the requirements for the Flames to get the third, so the fact they didn’t get any additional benefit beyond the cap savings always bothered me. Now that a pick is looking quite certain, I actually feel better about it.

The organization needs to start getting more picks. I think teams that have sustained success are able to build their roster, while also having more than the minimum of picks. I’d like to see the club strive for 5 picks in the first 3 rounds every year.

I know the media loves to focus on this trade because it is a very easy story to tell and allows for clever nick names like “Real Steal”. But the considerations behind the deal are far more nuanced, and I do think that ultimately is will be considered a win-win by those that consider those nuances.
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Old 10-19-2019, 11:16 AM   #3565
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Do u think Neal will get boo'ed in his return?
It would be more appropriate to treat him with the same disinterest he showed while playing for us, but yeah, he's going to get booed.

As for the complainers in this thread: Nobody is forcing you to open it. Don't whine because other people want to discuss it, and don't beg the mods to lock the thread because you completely lack self-control.
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Old 10-19-2019, 11:45 AM   #3566
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Nice to see he has turned things around. But....as suggested already what per cent of this is the McD factor? What if McD gets hurt and is off for considerable time. Does he then fall apart then the Oilers lose 2/3 of their major scoring. Just a thought is all.
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Old 10-19-2019, 12:13 PM   #3567
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The one thing positive to say about Neal, is that I do think he has a proven history of being able to play better with good players than the average bum.

He has a quick release and always been a great finisher. Thatís about all he has, but that is a skill that can be leveraged with top players that create opportunities in close and can find him.

That is a skill that the Flames were unable to leverage and didnít seem to have a viable plan in place to use it.

And that is why the trade works. Itís why Edmonton has to eat an additional $10m+ as well as a likely 3rd round pick.

Trades are supposed to benefit both teams. In this case it wasnít about one player really being better than the other. It was about skill sets that could be better leveraged by one team more than another.

Itís completely fine Neal is producing. He is simply a better leach than other guys they used to have, like Chiasson - but letís not oversell the effect Neal provides vs the alternative, as a lot of this is not his own doing and a function of opportunity with world class players.


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Old 10-19-2019, 12:38 PM   #3568
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I hate the argument that anyone can do it playing with Mcdavid. Because if that was true we’d just keep Lucic and he’s be fine. But he was useless on the power play. I get that Mcdavid makes others better. But you have to be good and have an idea of what to do to play with him as well. Lucic would park in front of the net on the PP and still couldn’t bang in goals. Chiasson did an ok job of that, and now it looks like Neal is an upgrade on that as well.

I was happy to see Lucic have a good game last one. Still one of my fav players even though he looks horrendous in those colours.
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Old 10-19-2019, 01:36 PM   #3569
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Originally Posted by Matt Reeeeead View Post

And that is why the trade works. Itís why Edmonton has to eat an additional $10m+ as well as a likely 3rd round pick.

Trades are supposed to benefit both teams. In this case it wasnít about one player really being better than the other. It was about skill sets that could be better leveraged by one team more than another.
I still think the Flames would have been better off retaining around 2 million of Neal's salary and packaging him with a first rounder or something to that effect instead of taking back so much cap hit in return.

I think Flames fans will want the ~ 3million in cap space created by such a deal more than Lucic and his $5 mil at some point over the next 4 seasons.
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Old 10-19-2019, 01:56 PM   #3570
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With the lack of farm depth, I think you have to keep that 1st round pick.


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Old 10-19-2019, 04:21 PM   #3571
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Is or isnít enough to justify?
Isn't. I wrote all of that only to screw it up by missing an apostrophe and two letters.
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