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Old 11-09-2018, 12:47 PM   #1
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Default Flames Team Metrics (Analytics) 11/9

I know not everyone likes this graph ...

I broke it into generation (for) and prevention (against) graphs to make it less cluttered. Additionally I added the opposition for each game so you can see more clearly what game is what.



The top graph shows the Flames have been great at generating for much of the season, especially good in the last half dozen games.

The bottom graph shows the attention to detail and commitment to cleaning up their own zone in the last two weeks.

The red line in each graph is the performance of the 16th best team in each metric, the result is Calgary's differential. You want to be above the red line in each case.
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Old 11-09-2018, 01:25 PM   #2
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There’s no doubt the team is much improved over last season. One has to wonder what the ceiling of this team would be had they an elite goaltender.
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Old 11-09-2018, 01:29 PM   #3
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Can we get definitions of what these numbers mean?
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Old 11-09-2018, 01:31 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo View Post
I know not everyone likes this graph ...

I broke it into generation (for) and prevention (against) graphs to make it less cluttered. Additionally I added the opposition for each game so you can see more clearly what game is what.



The top graph shows the Flames have been great at generating for much of the season, especially good in the last half dozen games.

The bottom graph shows the attention to detail and commitment to cleaning up their own zone in the last two weeks.

The red line in each graph is the performance of the 16th best team in each metric, the result is Calgary's differential. You want to be above the red line in each case.
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Old 11-09-2018, 01:31 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Erick Estrada View Post
Thereís no doubt the team is much improved over last season. One has to wonder what the ceiling of this team would be had they an elite goaltender.
Certainly higher than it is now.
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Old 11-09-2018, 01:37 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by getbak View Post
Can we get definitions of what these numbers mean?
Graph 1:
Gray - Shot Attempts For/60 min compared to the 16th ranked team
Yellow - Scoring Chances For/60 vs 16th team
Blue - High Danger Shot Attempts For/60 vs 16th team

Graph 2:

Green: Shot Attempts Against/60 min compared to the 16th ranked team
Navy: Scoring Chances Against/60 vs 16th team
Blue: High Danger Shot Attempts/60 vs 16th team

Since the Flames figures are being compared to the playoff bubble 16th overall team in all cases, a positive differential is what we're going for.

Above red line on both graphs = good
Below red line on both graphs = not good
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Old 11-09-2018, 01:44 PM   #7
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Old 11-09-2018, 02:01 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Erick Estrada View Post
Thereís no doubt the team is much improved over last season. One has to wonder what the ceiling of this team would be had they an elite goaltender.
Definitely a few more wins.
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Old 11-09-2018, 02:17 PM   #9
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So are we good yet?
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Old 11-09-2018, 02:32 PM   #10
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Old 11-09-2018, 02:39 PM   #11
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Old 11-09-2018, 02:42 PM   #12
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I don't know, I thought that was pretty well explained. Thanks!

Current trend looks good, which if you want one main takeaway, take that one.
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Old 11-09-2018, 02:50 PM   #13
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instead of vs the 16th place team can you set the flames as the baseline on the charts
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Old 11-09-2018, 02:52 PM   #14
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I thought it was a pretty good graphic for showing what games have been great, what ones have been a horror show and the overall trend the team is on or in.

May have been wrong!
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Old 11-09-2018, 03:04 PM   #15
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Is there a way to include wins and losses in there to see if those stats correlate to results at all?
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Old 11-09-2018, 03:04 PM   #16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo View Post
I thought it was a pretty good graphic for showing what games have been great, what ones have been a horror show and the overall trend the team is on or in.

May have been wrong!
Thanks! For me, it's tough to interpret because I consider most of these stats as relative statistics. Some games are just higher chance games than others. I know that you have split up offensive and defensive events intentionally, but is there a way to combine them into one 'differential' graph?

Also, the Rangers game in particular definitely matches the eye test.
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Old 11-09-2018, 03:07 PM   #17
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Is there a way to include wins and losses in there to see if those stats correlate to results at all?
Just even including the game result with the team name on the X-axis should accomplish this.
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Old 11-09-2018, 03:23 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Erick Estrada View Post
Thereís no doubt the team is much improved over last season. One has to wonder what the ceiling of this team would be had they an elite goaltender.
No kidding, elite goaltending would have given us 2-3 more wins? Would put us 3rd overall. Really, really hope this gets sorted and we donít waste this season.
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Old 11-09-2018, 03:26 PM   #19
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My view of the charts is that it suggests that the team is playing a far better brand of hockey compared to earlier in the season. They aren't leaking chances like they were - they are playing a style of hockey that they should win more often than they lose.
Which leaves you with the x-factor of goaltending.
Average goaltending should be enough for the team to be OK as long as they sustain how they are playing
Hard for any team to over come bad goaltending and one further worries that if they continue to receive that, the team will return to bad habits in an mis-directed attempt to over come shoddy tending.
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Old 11-09-2018, 03:45 PM   #20
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As suggested ... simple differential for each of shot attempts, scoring chances and high danger chances

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