01-15-2013, 10:54 AM
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#2921
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Powerplay Quarterback
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Just a heads up, Kayak implemented 'price predictions' into their search engine today.
They claim to be doing statistical analysis of '1 billion previous airfare searches' to try and predict if you should buy now, or wait. Although I'm not sure how meaningful airfare prices from 2010 would be in regards to prices in 2013.
It's similar to what Bing / Microsoft integrated into their search engine, when they bought FareCast. That technology was allegedly audited by an independent company and found to be accurate about 75% of the time.
I'm not entirely convinced of it's usefulness. These days, airfare prices for the most part are very efficiently priced. When there is a substantial drop on the major airlines, it's usually the result of an airline not quite seeing the demand levels they had expected to fill their seats, and then often times their competitors will react to this drop and lower their prices as well. So it's based on events that aren't exactly predictable or based on what has happened last year.
On the charter airlines, it's usually a case of the airline dropping prices to fill some last minute space on the plane, which may or may not happen, depending on the demand they saw. I do find the charter airlines to be a little more predictable based on what they've done before.
Using an example from the question posted by Brannigan's Law recently:
Quote:
So for a 2nd half of September to early October trip you'd suggest waiting for Air Transat or Condor to drop their prices around late August early September?
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A Kayak search to London around those dates:
http://www.kayak.com/flights#/YYC-LO...10-09-flexible
The price trend (top left) looks like this:
Kayak says to 'buy now' with 64% confidence that prices may rise by more than $20 in the next 7 days.
A couple of things:
- Not sure how useful it is to try and predict whether prices will rise or fall in the next 7 days. Especially by only $20. I don't think that necessarily indicates a trend, or is all that useful in determining whether this is the right moment in the entire calendar year to buy.
- Wouldn't it be more useful to analyze at what point(s) in the previous year prices were discounted to the destination in question on the dates you're looking to travel this year?
Anyways, if you're looking for some sort of help with whether you should buy now or wait, it's a source of data you can use to help make that decision.
Apparently not all destinations have enough data to display the price trend details.
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01-15-2013, 11:12 AM
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#2922
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Powerplay Quarterback
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I know we've had discussions in this thread before about the possibility of driving to U.S. airports in Montana to get a better deal (usually to Vegas, on Allegiant).
I recently made an attempt to try and quantify how much cheaper a flight out of Montana would need to be than from Calgary to be worth the drive. This includes factors such as:
- extra fuel costs (how fuel efficient is your vehicle?)
- baggage costs
- parking your vehicle at the airport
- cost of hotel if it requires an overnight stay
- extra vehicle depreciation (if you believe in this)
and most importantly (and perhaps most often overlooked)
- how much your time is worth
http://www.yycdeals.com/the-official...m-calgary-area
^^^ That blog post also contains a link to a spreadsheet that you can use to compare the costs of flying out of YYC vs an airport in Montana, and an example of the variables I used to draw my conclusion.
The conclusion:
Quote:
There are cities in Canada where it can make sense to drive across the border to catch a flight for a cheaper holiday. Unfortunately, I don't think Calgary is one of them. The 5 hour drive each way is the most prohibitive factor. To make any sense at all for a person to do it, I think at *least* one or more of the following would have to be true:
- you live far south of Calgary, with a shorter drive to one of Montana's airports. From Lethbridge for example, it's only about a half hour more to drive to GTF than to drive to YYC. This results in the flight from Great Falls only needing to be $50 less than the flight from Calgary to break even. Big difference.
- you don't value your time as being worth much. Or you consider the drive to Montana as having added value (perhaps as part of a golf or shopping trip)
- you have a minimum of 4 people in the car.
- the flight cost is at least $500/person cheaper than flying from Calgary. This is possible, but with Las Vegas or Phoenix being the most likely suspects for an extremely cheap flight out of Montana, and it being fairly common to see flights to Phoenix or Vegas in the $400-$500 roundtrip after taxes range from YYC, the flight from Montana would need to be practically free (or the airline paying you to fly) in most cases.
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01-16-2013, 03:40 PM
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#2923
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First Line Centre
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Any advice for a one week trip out to Amsterdam in June or July for cheaper flights?
Thanks!
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01-16-2013, 04:29 PM
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#2924
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Lethbridge
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Another plus for Great Falls is the ease of airport parking, last time we flew we ended up parking very close to the front doors of the terminal.
Got off the plane and had no checked luggage...were on the road in no time.
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01-17-2013, 10:12 AM
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#2925
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My face is a bum!
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ikaris
Any advice for a one week trip out to Amsterdam in June or July for cheaper flights?
Thanks!
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Having booked on KLM recently, we got a much cheaper rate booking to Edinburgh via Amsterdam and then having an extended stopover in Amsterdam (you could spend the bulk of your trip there). So you might want to play with taking a mid-week hop somewhere else and seeing if it drops your overall airfare, even if you never board that flight. Ours seemed to be a Wednesday AMS-EDI that was dropping the rate a few hundred for us.
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01-17-2013, 10:29 AM
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#2926
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tron_fdc
Got a twitter response about 30 seconds after I sent them a comment. That's actually pretty impressive.
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I'm a huge fan of tweeting AC and WJ when I've had situations come up. I've been upgraded to executive on AC after I had a conversation with them on twitter and had WJ able to adjust my seats after my wife and I (despite being booked together) couldn't get seats together. Always had great success with it.
Anyone get a NEXUS card recently? Did the application and such online and just wondering how long until we're approved for an interview?
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01-17-2013, 10:45 AM
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#2927
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Scoring Winger
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jar_e
I'm a huge fan of tweeting AC and WJ when I've had situations come up. I've been upgraded to executive on AC after I had a conversation with them on twitter and had WJ able to adjust my seats after my wife and I (despite being booked together) couldn't get seats together. Always had great success with it.
Anyone get a NEXUS card recently? Did the application and such online and just wondering how long until we're approved for an interview?
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Just got conditionally approved last week for my online application
My interview isn't until July. Looks like they are booking into August now
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01-17-2013, 10:56 AM
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#2928
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by itcrossedtheline
Just got conditionally approved last week for my online application
My interview isn't until July. Looks like they are booking into August now
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Yikes. That's ridiculous.
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01-17-2013, 03:19 PM
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#2929
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Franchise Player
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Regarding cmyden's "drive and fly" post -- we did this once last year (spent 5 days in Phoenix, bookended by overnight stays in Great Falls), and it worked out really well. We usually head down to Montana a few times a year just for shopping anyways (I'm amazed at how much you can save over Canadian prices -- enough to basically subsidize the trip including hotel and gas). So the cost was definitely in our favor (considering how cheap our flights were on Allegiant), plus the ability to bring stuff back in a car versus trying to cram it into a suitcase.
With two little ones that now (or will soon need) tickets of their own, I can definitely see us doing it again. Didn't know they started charging for carry-on's, but I guess that's just more incentive to pack light
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01-22-2013, 03:46 PM
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#2930
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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I thought the all-in pricing was supposed to go into effect in December? Why are sites like redtag still advertising prices + taxes?
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01-22-2013, 04:04 PM
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#2931
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Powerplay Quarterback
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rubecube
I thought the all-in pricing was supposed to go into effect in December? Why are sites like redtag still advertising prices + taxes?
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Have noticed this as well.
https://www.otc-cta.gc.ca/eng/aspar-q-and-a
Quote:
Excluded from the new regulations are flights originating outside Canada, package travel services, loyalty rewards programs and charter services booked through corporate travel offices.
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Canadian based travel sites that advertise 'package deals' are apparently exempt from the new law (which is lame, since they're often the most deceptively priced of all travel products), and only applies to standalone airfares . But I'm still seeing plenty of Canadian based travel sites that are advertising airfare only deals without the taxes & fees included.
Not sure what the official channel is to make a complaint, perhaps at the online feedback form at the bottom of the Canadian Transportation Agency website:
http://www.cta-otc.gc.ca/eng/airservicesadvertising
Actually, under the questions and answer section, it says complaints are to be directed to the Competition Bureau:
http://www.competitionbureau.gc.ca/e...c.nsf/eng/home
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01-22-2013, 04:09 PM
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#2932
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cmyden
Have noticed this as well.
https://www.otc-cta.gc.ca/eng/aspar-q-and-a
Canadian based travel sites that advertise 'package deals' are apparently exempt from the new law (which is lame, since they're often the most deceptively priced of all travel products), and only applies to standalone airfares . But I'm still seeing plenty of Canadian based travel sites that are advertising airfare only deals without the taxes & fees included.
Not sure what the official channel is to make a complaint, perhaps at the online feedback form at the bottom of the Canadian Transportation Agency website:
http://www.cta-otc.gc.ca/eng/airservicesadvertising
Actually, under the questions and answer section, it says complaints are to be directed to the Competition Bureau:
http://www.competitionbureau.gc.ca/e...c.nsf/eng/home
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Yeah, I saw the part about packages and thought "fine" but I've been seeing redtag advertising flights only without including the taxes. I'm wondering if they get a pass because they're discounted charter flights. If so, the law needs to added to.
EDIT: I don't understand this either. At some point they have to reveal the full price before you pay for the ticket. How does this produce any kind of advantage for them?
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01-22-2013, 04:14 PM
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#2933
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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The one travel agency I should give credit to is Flight Centre. I thought they would be the first to skirt the all-in pricing as much as possible, but they've actually gone in the exact opposite direction. I might send them a kudos on twitter or something.
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01-22-2013, 04:32 PM
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#2934
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Powerplay Quarterback
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rubecube
The one travel agency I should give credit to is Flight Centre. I thought they would be the first to skirt the all-in pricing as much as possible, but they've actually gone in the exact opposite direction. I might send them a kudos on twitter or something.
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I'll see if I can bring some public awareness to the ones that are obeying the law, and the ones that aren't. Might give them some incentive to start complying.
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01-24-2013, 10:58 AM
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#2935
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Saddledome, Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by itcrossedtheline
Just got conditionally approved last week for my online application
My interview isn't until July. Looks like they are booking into August now
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I'm in the same boat. Wife and I got approved yesterday and I went to try and book interviews and July 21 is the earliest... Crazy that I have to wait 6 months to get my NEXUS card after I've been conditionally approved.
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01-24-2013, 11:58 AM
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#2936
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Powerplay Quarterback
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Just as a heads up, if you keep checking back online for Nexus interview times, there are always cancellations so chances are you can switch your interview to a much sooner time if you can be flexible.
When I got conditionally approved last January, my initial interview was supposed to be sometime in April or May, but I kept checking back and managed to get something in January. After the interview I then received my card within two weeks I believe.
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01-24-2013, 12:08 PM
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#2937
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Lifetime Suspension
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hey All,
I was hoping for some help. I am planning to travel to germany on May 10th and come back June 10th.
When would be the cheapest time to book? And holy cow are tickets expensive!
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01-24-2013, 05:06 PM
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#2938
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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Are there any decent websites for tracking all-inclusive packages, similar to ITA or farecompare?
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01-24-2013, 05:51 PM
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#2939
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Victoria
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To add to this, I'm looking to book an all-inclusive from Victoria to anywhere. I have fairly specifc dates, either April 12, 13, or 14, but don't care where I go. Should I try to book in advance or is it likely I'll ne anle to find a good last minute deal?
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01-24-2013, 08:37 PM
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#2940
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Scoring Winger
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Are the flights to Vegas really about 800 (rt) to Vegas in a couple of weeks? Anyone have a humanely priced direction I can look at for a flight only from Feb 7 to 10?
Thanks in advance...
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