American Politics Thread: The Hunt for Blue November

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by New Era

In Trouble

John Cornyn (Texas)
Kelly Loeffler (Georgia)
Joni Ernst (Iowa)
Pat Roberts (Kansas) (retired)
Lindsey Graham (South Carolina)
Mitch McConnell (Kentucky)

Of these, the Kansas race seems to be particularly interesting: Democrats nominated Barbara Bollier, a former moderate Republican who recently quit that party over their failed fiscal experiments in Kansas, and, importantly, is a former physician, and has made both medicare expansion and K-12 school funding priorities of her career. And that was even before both those issues are being thrust to the forefront of the national spotlight. While some Democratic candidate choices get criticism, Bollier looks like a case of nominating exactly the right candidate.

And there's a solid chance she'll be running against Kris Kolbach, the anti-immigrationist who was recruited by Trump to prove allegations of voter fraud, failed to turn up any, returned to Kansas to run for governor and solidly lost to one of Bollier's allies, Laura Kelly.

I could imagine a lot of split-ticket voters in states like Kansas and Iowa who reluctantly vote for Trump out of some sense of loyalty, but vote for Democratic senators out of the feeling that he needs more of a check against his power than the Republican senate provided.

[FlamesAddiction]

You can't ignore that factors which impede voting participation affect minorities disproportionately. The way things are going, I also expect there to be intimidation at the polls.

[Senator Clay Davis]

I mean dare to dream and all that, but Cornyn and McConnell really aren't in any serious trouble. If Trump starts sliding further down the polls maybe they are in trouble, but they are probably safe. Loeffler probably isn't even gonna be the GOP nominee so she's a non-factor. Kansas is definitely getable for the Dems if Kobach is the GOP nominee. Graham and Ernst are in fights for sure.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by GGG

Polls do not assume 100% turnout.

Polls in general will use either a likely voter model, a registered voter model, or the general population model. You would need to look at the specific poll you are talking about to determine which model is being used.

I believe that most of the major pollsters use likely voter at this stage.

Agreed that this is a really important consideration, however at this point we're still at mostly Registered Voter polls, especially amongst high-quality pollsters; a lot of pollsters don't like trying to sample for likely voters far out from the election, because it's simply harder to pick up accurately the further out you are from an election. By late summer these pollsters will start switching to LV polls.

(On 538, I see only 2 pollsters that are rated B or higher and have screened for LVs in the last month: Hart Research Associates, and Optimus).

[Fozzie_DeBear]

Honest question that just occured to me...if Trump wins and the Dems win the senate, will Nancy fire up the Impeach-a-tron 2000 again?

[Wastedyouth]

Originally Posted by Fozzie_DeBear

Honest question that just occured to me...if Trump wins and the Dems win the senate, will Nancy fire up the Impeach-a-tron 2000 again?

He'll be essentially neutered. I am not sure they will care enough, just let him keep sinking the Republicans while he continues to decline into senility.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by Fozzie_DeBear

Honest question that just occured to me...if Trump wins and the Dems win the senate, will Nancy fire up the Impeach-a-tron 2000 again?

It will be interesting (perhaps not the right word, frustrating?) to see what happens in the reverse. The more likely scenario where Biden wins and the Senate remains with the GOP. I can only imagine the grandstanding and obstruction of a new mandate if that is the case. It really needs to go blue in November.

[wwkayaker]

CNN just reported that the judge ruled that Mary Trump will not have a gag order. Trump meltdown incoming.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I mean dare to dream and all that, but Cornyn and McConnell really aren't in any serious trouble. If Trump starts sliding further down the polls maybe they are in trouble, but they are probably safe. Loeffler probably isn't even gonna be the GOP nominee so she's a non-factor. Kansas is definitely getable for the Dems if Kobach is the GOP nominee. Graham and Ernst are in fights for sure.

McConnell lossing would just make be feel better about the world. To know there are consiquences for wantingly throwing away the institutions of society in search of power, would be very comforting. But alas I have to agree, it just doesn't feel like thats the timeline we are on.

[Maritime Q-Scout]

I'd be shocked if McConnel loses.

That said, he is one of the, if not the, most unpopular senator in Congress. A strong candidate with a large focus on his corruption (and a target on his back from anti-Trump groups such as the Lincoln Project) might be enough to squeak out a Democratic victory (in more ways than one).

[Thor]

I think my excitement for Mcconnell losing is almost as much as seeing Trump lose, I loathe him on a level I didn't know was possible.

[direwolf]

Originally Posted by Thor

I think my excitement for Mcconnell losing is almost as much as seeing Trump lose, I loathe him on a level I didn't know was possible.

Yup. Trump is a despicable piece of s***, but he's really more of a puppet/useful idiot. McConnell is the embodiment of pure evil.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Nothing suspicious about the difference at all...

https://twitter.com/user/status/1283049281411325953

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

... All of those results, based on the state in question, are believable. The FLA and MN ones are a bit higher than I would have expected but other outlets have polled him at +12 in MN and there's a recent Fox News poll that had him +9 in Florida. Arizona at +4 Trump is a bit of an outlier but nothing shocking.

So no, there's nothing suspicious about it, really. The OAN people just commissioned polls in states that have been polling closer than Florida and Minnesota lately.

[nik-]

Not saying that OAN is reputable, but those are different states, and those three states are pretty typically dark red.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

I don't see any issue with those polls. And what was the 6th one (nonOAN)?

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

... All of those results, based on the state in question, are believable. The FLA and MN ones are a bit higher than I would have expected but other outlets have polled him at +12 in MN and there's a recent Fox News poll that had him +9 in Florida. Arizona at +4 Trump is a bit of an outlier but nothing shocking.

So no, there's nothing suspicious about it, really. The OAN people just commissioned polls in states that have been polling closer than Florida and Minnesota lately.

Except that they don't jive with other polls from the same states. For example, PPP just finished polling Georgia and they were +4 Biden, which was consistent with the +8 for Cunningham (Senate). Couple in Trump's disapproval rating of +17, and they do look specious.

Here is the thing about "commissioned" polls. They can be very focused in their methodology and target. If someone wants to skew the numbers (*cough* OAN *cough*) they provide a rules of engagement document that clearly defines the area and zip codes that will targeted. It is just this side of push polling, which is why it is important to review the actual polling data and methodology used.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Sorry I should have posted the follow up tweet too. Gravis did OANN's Florida poll which had the race tied. I'm not even blaming OANN here, Gravis just fits their polls to what the customer wants which kinda defeats the purpose of polling.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1283051813093216257

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Okay, that is definitely shadier, to poll the same state so close together and get completely different results. It is a few weeks difference, but that's a pretty major gulf.

I guess you could spin it as bad news for Trump if you wanted... hey, he was tied there a month ago and now he's down 10!

In reality, if you wanted to cast aspersions on the OAN polls, it would be pretty easy, I imagine... generally when a poll is released a PDF is posted showing all the methodology and questions asked and it would be pretty easy to see if they did something different in the OAN ones that would produce a different result.

[ernie]

Biden campaign just did the unthinkable....

They have bought TV ad time in Texas. That’s a confirmation that their internal polling is saying what the public ones are.