Real estate in Calgary - another bubble?

[blankall]

Originally Posted by boogerz

The median gross household income in Calgary is definitely not $140,000 per year or $100k after tax. I don't know that Calgary was even hitting that high of a median household income just before the 2014/15 crash either. A household income that high means at least one person in the household is a 1%er or both parents have above average jobs.

Calgary Economic Development's published marketing material (here) shows median household income at around $100k ($75k after-tax) with only about ~9% of total households earning an after-tax household income greater than $140k ($100k after tax).


If we're assuming average household income at $75k after-tax and a median detached house price of $525k (per the latest CREB stats), the $2100/month mortgage payment (10% down) is about a third of the median family's monthly take-home income. That increases to half of a median family's take-home income by the time you add in the other costs of home ownership (e.g. insurance, utilities, maintenance, etc.).

We're not in bubble territory yet, but Calgary's house affordability is already at the limits of what an average family can afford.

There's no way the average home purchaser makes $50k/year before tax. That's $25/hr. Your figures likely include a lot of single income households, entry level workers, and underemployed people who are not in the market for detached homes. They also likely don't include the significant amount of people doing, at least some, work that is not reported on tax returns. Independent contractors and the self-employed also tend to get creative with their tax returns, in terms of both income and write offs.

$2,100 is only $1,050 per income earner, in a two income household. That seems pretty attainable for most workers. If you can't afford to spend that on housing, you probably should not be looking on taking a commitment like a mortgage on in the first place.

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Did you check the website I linked …. I know the answer is no cause they give both mean and median salaries! And the ones I used were the mean (unless their graphs that’s say “X % of calgarians make this salary are wrong )

Thanks for the stats lesson though ��

It's a terrible website though.

Salaries in Calgary range from 31,900 CAD per year (minimum salary) to 563,000 CAD per year (maximum average salary, actual maximum is higher).

A minimum wage earner ($15) working full time (40*52) does not meet the "minimum salary".

[blankall]

In Calgary, as of 2016, only 56.3% of dwellings were detached homes. That number has likely fallen, and doesn't account for multi-generational homes:

https://regionaldashboard.alberta.ca...mily-houses/#/

If you're going to look at income stats vs. affordability, you should look at households who actually have single detached homes.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

It's a terrible website though.



A minimum wage earner ($15) working full time (40*52) does not meet the "minimum salary".

You may want to redo your math! So now you’ve given a math and stats lesson and failed on both !

[GGG]

If people want to use households and unattached someone just needs to find the median dwelling price in Calgary. Creb as average price for all dwellings but only median broken down into categories.

But if you look at boogerz math Calgary can support a Median housing price of about 525k when it now has a median SFH price of 525k. So lots of room before we say bubble.

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

You may want to redo your math! So now you’ve given a math and stats lesson and failed on both !

40*15*52=31,200. "Minimum salary" stated is 31,900. I'm dyslexic so it will be embarrassing if I've read it wrong but I keep double checking. And that was with the 40 hours per week, every week, which will not be the norm for nearly any minimum wage worker. Especially those in careers where they will keep you at 29 hours to stop you from being a full-time employee. So it seems to be a vastly inflated minimum salary.

In any case, that was my first and only post in this thread. But it seems anytime you quote someone on this forum they take it as a personal insult like they just found out I was sleeping with their grandma. Is this the result of COVID? I think people need to chill out lol, but I'm outie.

[DoubleF]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

40*15*52=31,200. "Minimum salary" stated is 31,900. I'm dyslexic so it will be embarrassing if I've read it wrong but I keep double checking. And that was with the 40 hours per week, every week, which will not be the norm for nearly any minimum wage worker. Especially those in careers where they will keep you at 29 hours to stop you from being a full-time employee. So it seems to be a vastly inflated minimum salary.

In any case, that was my first and only post in this thread. But it seems anytime you quote someone on this forum they take it as a personal insult like they just found out I was sleeping with their grandma. Is this the result of COVID? I think people need to chill out lol, but I'm outie.

I think... it's not that your math is wrong, but that when people say "minimum wage", the definitions being used are different person to person. In all honesty, you guys are splitting hairs over an estimation to make a budget calculation.

IMO, the "real" definition that most people are implying when they use the terms, "minimum wage" is essentially, "basically minimum wage" which to most people I assume is around $35-40K or less per year.

Down and dirty minimum wage calculations aren't going to work as well vs higher income calculations IMO, so you basically just have to make certain assumptions. People with jobs making around $15 an hour aren't generally working 8AM-5PM @ M-F = 40 per week. They sometimes do multiple jobs and occasionally are spending 6-7 days a week trying to make ends meet (not all days worked are in excess of let's say 6 hours). You might have to take it a step further and consider that low income subsidies and tax brackets work up to the first $50K ish for the math to make sense.

Screw the calcs. I know family households with multiple kids that have a total family income of $80K or less and they own homes worth $400K (so I assume mortgages now of approx $300K?). They can make it work and often times, if they run into issues, people help out (family loans etc.). And if that doesn't work, they sell at a loss and rent/room with a friend. It's not as simple as just looking at incomes vs home prices as a pure spread. Lower income individuals may not actually be as inclined to purchase a home.

But... whatever. It's just a bunch of thought exercise. Go as deep or as simple as you'd like.

[Calgary14]

I posted this in the property assessment thread but it's worth posting again, Bode.ca has sold data so you can see all the places in a neighborhood that sold w/prices, sale date, etc and you can even see flips (ie. bought in March for $X and sold in December for $X)

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

40*15*52=31,200. "Minimum salary" stated is 31,900. I'm dyslexic so it will be embarrassing if I've read it wrong but I keep double checking. And that was with the 40 hours per week, every week, which will not be the norm for nearly any minimum wage worker. Especially those in careers where they will keep you at 29 hours to stop you from being a full-time employee. So it seems to be a vastly inflated minimum salary.

In any case, that was my first and only post in this thread. But it seems anytime you quote someone on this forum they take it as a personal insult like they just found out I was sleeping with their grandma. Is this the result of COVID? I think people need to chill out lol, but I'm outie.

My bad I did think you made the post regarding median vs average. So you can’t do math and I can’t read usernames . We should have a beer and be confused together one day !

[troutman]

A couple of homes in South Calgary have gone $100K+ over list price this week.

[Sliver]

Probably people jumping ship from the NW. You gotta pay to play if you want into the good end of town.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Sliver

Probably people jumping ship from the NW. You gotta pay to play if you want into the good end of town.

Whoa, slow your roll…no one said SE, and we all know it must be the SW!

[troutman]

My GF put an offer on a house in Okotoks at $25K over list price. It sold for over $100K above list price tonight.

Her realtor calls the current market “crisis inventory”.

[Gundo]

So we signed to build a new home in Riverstone in October and got our possession date for mid-September at the moment.

With no real rental inventory and wanting to get the most bang for our buck we are going to market in about 2 weeks asking for a 6 month possession or lease back provision.

We aren’t even listed yet and just with our Realtors networking we have 2 bloody offers already

[Hemi-Cuda]

Pricing is going crazy right now. 2 houses in our area just sold within a week of being listed, one for $599k and one for $850k. The 850 one was bigger and nicer, but definitely not $250k worth. At this point if I was selling I'd list for a stupid high price and just see what happens

[Calgary14]

Originally Posted by Gundo

So we signed to build a new home in Riverstone in October and got our possession date for mid-September at the moment.

With no real rental inventory and wanting to get the most bang for our buck we are going to market in about 2 weeks asking for a 6 month possession or lease back provision.

We aren’t even listed yet and just with our Realtors networking we have 2 bloody offers already

Wait so you're selling before even moving in?

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Calgary14

Wait so you're selling before even moving in?

Think he's talking about selling his old place.

[Gundo]

Yes to clarify we are selling our current home before our new house is completed.

[wretched34]

In-laws just sold their home today.
They accepted an unconditional offer, 11.5% over their asking price. They had more than 20 showings booked. House was listed last night just before 9:00PM.

[Calgary14]

At this point you almost need to have connections just to be able to buy a house