[Trade] Flames acquire Derek Forbort (25% retained) from LA for a cond 2021 4th

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I didn't realize until just now how physical Forbort plays. He racks up a ton of hits. I was under the impression that he was more of a Fantenberg type.

I've said a few times that the Flames sorely miss Deryk Engelland. He could do it all on the back-end. He was physical but could also eat a ton of minutes.

So... colour me cautiously optimistic. At first, the optics didn't look good (another depth dman trade with the Kings? really?) and I'm definitely still skeptical.

But if this guy can provide some of the elements that Engelland did... sign me up for that.

His points look a lot like Engelland's. I like his size. If he can lay some big hits,. it's been a while since they've had that (though Yelesin had a couple nice ones last night).

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

TBH I think Johnny has been much, much better over the last 2-3 weeks

He's been close to average Johnny, which is way, way better than where has was at over the first three to four months.

That shot last night was a relief to see. He hasn't shot like that from that location this season.

[FireGilbert]

Originally Posted by Toonage

My son is also named Forbort

Originally Posted by zamler

Originally Posted by sureLoss

We need more Forbort license plates at the Fan-Attic.

I repeat we are sold out of Forbort license plates

Originally Posted by zamler

The trade was worth it for the jokes alone!

[sureLoss]

Forbort says he is taking the red-eye and will arrive in Boston at 7AM tomorrow. Is an option for tomorrow's game.

[GioforPM]

fun fact

Forbort's last fight was in the minors against one Brandon Davidson.

[Spinach]

Originally Posted by Flamenspiel

I think that the Flames felt that with the recent play of Mangiapane, Dube, and Sam Bennett that defence became a more urgent need. Certainly it looked like Brad drew the line at 3rd round pick and was not willing to give up more.

Although my opinion of Treliving has dropped in the last year, electing to keep the 1st & 2nd this year was absolutely the right call, methinks. The 1st could be a lottery pick, and even if it isn't, this organization sorely needs to restock the prospect cupboards.

And what do you know, Forbort led the Kings in blocked shots last year (that may have already been stated - I haven't read through much of this thread).

[sureLoss]

nhl.com lists Forbort as #20.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Spinach

Although my opinion of Treliving has dropped in the last year, electing to keep the 1st & 2nd this year was absolutely the right call, methinks. The 1st could be a lottery pick, and even if it isn't, this organization sorely needs to restock the prospect cupboards.

And what do you know, Forbort led the Kings in blocked shots last year (that may have already been stated - I haven't read through much of this thread).

I don’t mind this trade at all. And I agree that this upcoming draft isn’t one to be messing around with. That said, blocked shots isn’t really a stat to be overly happy with.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Originally Posted by zamler

Are you talking to me?

[FlamesAreOne]

#20

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by FlamesAreOne

#20

Ahhh, Dallas Eakins’ old number. Also Curtises Lazar and Glencross. And some Dman named Suter.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Karl

He's on par with Michael Stone for ineptness.

So I thought I'd address this.

Derek Forbort and Michael Stone are very different players.

Here is some Zone Entry Denial / Controlled Zone Exit data from 2018:



What does this chart really mean?

In the sample, opposing teams were carrying the puck in 72.5% of the time on Michael Stone (who played on CGY's 3rd pair with Brett Kulak that year.)

In the same sample, opposing teams were carrying the puck in 63.8% of the time on Stone's partner, Brett Kulak. As anyone who could look past contracts and NHL experience could observe, Stone was the anchor on his D pairing.
Easy zone entries lead to chances against.

In the same sample, opposing teams were carrying the puck in 56.4% of the time on Drew Doughty. I mean that's classic Doughty - there's a reason he's got two Stanley Cups. And he was doing it against top NHLers as he plays a Giordano/Brodie type role for his team. His partner was... Derek Forbort.

Opposing teams were carrying the puck in 64.9% of the time on Forbort. This is comparable to Kulak and Brodie (and that was a down year for Brodie you may recall, I imagine his numbers are better the last couple of years with more confidence). Again, Forbort was playing on L.A.'s top pair, whereas Stone was playing on Calgary's third pair that year. So the expectation would have been that star players would get more controlled entries, but Forbort was forcing more dump-ins along with his partner Doughty. This is textbook neutral zone hockey that pairing was playing. Yeah, no one is going to confuse Derek Forbort for Scott Stevens and he doesn't have much offensive zone skill, but he is a player who can help shut the neutral zone down. In my opinion if you control the neutral zone, your skilled players (Gaudreau etc) have way more opportunity to create offense, both on the counterattack and simply being more confident to make plays knowing their mistakes will be covered.

Now let's look at the other part of the chart, controlled exits.

Mike Stone had a controlled exit% of 27.8% - he was a glass and out Dman in every sense

His partner Kulak had a controlled exit% of 49.0% - there was a reason some of us felt Kulak was "carrying" the third defense pair that year. If you can make controlled exits out of your zone, on paper you should have more puck possession and probably more transition scoring. It didn't quite manifest under Gulutzan's molasses systems but it I'm digressing right now.

Doughty had a controlled exit% of 56.0% - I mean we're talking about a former Norris Trophy winner in the prime of his career so it's unsurprising. And yet again, Doughty is playing against far more dangerous forwards than Kulak-Stone.

And finally that brings us to Derek Forbort. His controlled exit% of 39.5% looks pedestrian compared to Doughty - but that's to be expected. It's still an impressive number, and that's why you see Forbort in the top right corner of the chart above.

Does any of this translate to the stuff we value - goals and goals against? Well L.A.'s an awful offensive team and probably could have benefited from a more offensive partner for Doughty along the lines of Giordano, so it's safe to say Forbort was playing too high up the lineup from the perspective of offense. From the perspective of defense though? I think so. I think Forbort's 2.02 5v5 GA/60 from 2016-19 has some value. That ranks 12th best of the 176 defensemen who logged 2000 minutes over that span. Of course he's been a beneficiary of playing with Kopitar and Doughty - that goes without saying. But I don't believe personally that Mike Stone is capable of achieving this. Or for that matter, the Travis Hamonic that we've seen for most of his time here.

Forbort is the player people THINK Hamonic is. And while I personally still prefer not to have a no-offense player in the top four when healthy, I'm a lot more comfortable with him filling in for Giordano than Michael freakin' Stone. At a cost of a fourth round pick, it's tough to criticize this acquisition. We didn't pay a 12th overall plus two second for him.

[dino7c]

I think some people eat crow on this guy

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by dino7c

I think some people eat crow on this guy

Definitely. They just don't know who it is. They googled his name, saw his AHL conditioning stint from his injury recovery, scoffed and went "Durr another Fantenberg"

He's nothing to get super excited about but this isn't some press box fodder either

[Crown Royal]

Originally Posted by btimbit

Definitely. They just don't know who it is. They googled his name, saw his AHL conditioning stint from his injury recovery, scoffed and went "Durr another Fantenberg"

He's nothing to get super excited about but this isn't some press box fodder either

I'm super excited.

I love a solid physical defensive defenseman and believe it is a massive need on this team. Forbort is just rounding into shape after missing half the season with injury, it's just the last 5 games he's gotten back up to the 20 minute per game mark. But the guy can skate well and he can bang. He's much closer to a poor man's Regehr, than Fanta 2.0 like many are claiming.

[megatron]

Originally Posted by Toonage

My son is also named Forbort

You sir, win the internet today.

I couldn't stop laughing when I read that this morning.

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by btimbit

Definitely. They just don't know who it is. They googled his name, saw his AHL conditioning stint from his injury recovery, scoffed and went "Durr another Fantenberg"

He's nothing to get super excited about but this isn't some press box fodder either

Yep... that's exactly what I did

I thought the Flames sent one vanilla #7 defenseman out the door in Davidson for nothing and then brought another one in for a 4th

If this was the Fantenberg trade over again I do think it would be a pointless waste of a pick (nothing against Fantenberg, he's solid, but I think Davidson is roughly on par) but Forbort has a pretty good history of playing up and down the lineup in big-minute roles

The Flames added two guys yesterday with versatile capabilities and who have both been counted on to play top-pairing minutes. That's huge

[dustygoon]

Once again Kylington gets bumped back on depth chart. He has to be frustrated. He is so good at skating the puck out of trouble but the giveaways albeit less frequent hurt his case. I wish they tried him at right point on the PP a little more.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by dustygoon

Once again Kylington gets bumped back on depth chart. He has to be frustrated. He is so good at skating the puck out of trouble but the giveaways albeit less frequent hurt his case. I wish they tried him at right point on the PP a little more.

Honestly, he doesn't do this nearly enough. That's my major complaint with him. He doesn't use his wheels enough in his own zone to get out of trouble, hence the turnovers. It's a product of him not using his natural talents enough and then making a panic decision.

He's a better player than what he's shown, but that's all he's shown so far.

[Gaskal]

Do any of our defencemen consistently try to exit the zone with control? I feel like that's more on coaching.