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Old 12-23-2019, 09:52 PM   #121
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Well when you went against the spreadsheet you went 1-4. Spreadsheet was 8-6-2 overall. Better than last week for you I guess.
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Old 12-24-2019, 11:44 AM   #122
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Well when you went against the spreadsheet you went 1-4. Spreadsheet was 8-6-2 overall. Better than last week for you I guess.
Yeah, I think it's a good news/bad news situation. The good news is that, with a sample size of 226 games, the spreadsheet is pretty good at picking games (it's sitting at 55.5% for the year), but the tricky part is that there doesn't seem to be any way of determining the games it's most confident about, so I'd be forced to bet every game in order to consistently guarantee a profit.

Going to spend some time tinkering with it in the offseason and seeing if there are additional numbers I can plug in to get a better a read on games.
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Old 12-24-2019, 01:04 PM   #123
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Yeah if you bet every game, at 55% you are breaking even.
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Old 12-24-2019, 01:12 PM   #124
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Yeah if you bet every game, at 55% you are breaking even.
Incorrect. 52.4% is considered profitable once you've accounted for the juice. 56% is what professional gamblers expect to hit to be able to do it for a living.
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Old 12-27-2019, 10:38 AM   #125
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Well after the debacle of the previous two weeks, I'm fully leaning into the spreadsheet. Keep in mind that it's not built to account for backups and meaningless games, so I tried to stay away from as many of those as possible.

CLE -2.5
DAL -11
KC -9
SEA +3.5
PHI -4.5
IND -3.5
CAR +13
DEN -3.5
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Old 12-27-2019, 03:16 PM   #126
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I made a fun parlay.

LSU to win twice. 27/20 + Green Bay to win Super Bowl 10/1

$50 returns $1180
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Old 12-29-2019, 10:19 AM   #127
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Both the Bears and the Jets are even money on the road. Vikings and Bills resting starters.
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Old 01-02-2020, 03:00 PM   #128
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Spreadsheet went 5-9-2 last week to close out the year at 130-110-16. I'm happy with that as far as a first year goes but I'm definitely not sold on it. I personally finished 61-67-2, which blows.

Anyways, this week the spreadsheet has:

HOU -3
NE -5
MIN +8
PHI +0.5

I pretty much agree except I have NO -8.
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Old 01-08-2020, 01:05 PM   #129
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Spreadsheet beats me again but only goes 1-2-1 vs. my 0-3-1. This week I'm just going with what it picks, which is:

MIN +7
TEN +10
KC -10
GB -4
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Old 01-08-2020, 09:00 PM   #130
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I know this is terribly flawed logic, but Tennessee lost to Houston at home 3 weeks ago when both teams played their starters. Yet both teams are similar underdogs this week. I think KC has too many points and that Baltimore might not have enough.
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Old 01-09-2020, 07:22 AM   #131
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I would take MIN +7 for sure. Thats too much.
The rest are harder.
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Old 01-31-2020, 05:12 PM   #132
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I'm on the 49ers and the under this weekend.
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Old 02-01-2020, 01:50 PM   #133
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I'm on the 49ers and the under this weekend.
For quite a while I was expecting the game tomorrow to be close and maybe even go in SF's favour but I've decided that it is going to be a blowout for KC. I'm going big on KC -7.5
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Old 02-01-2020, 05:05 PM   #134
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I’m all over KC on this one. Staying away from the over/under though.
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Old 02-01-2020, 05:28 PM   #135
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I'm tied for first with one other guy. The difference is $200 between 1st and 2nd.

I'm taking KC in the pool and have hedged on SF against the spread. There is an outside chance I could win both sides of the bet which would be wunderbar.
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Old 02-02-2020, 11:17 PM   #136
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I'm on the 49ers and the under this weekend.
Well half right?
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Old 02-03-2020, 06:36 PM   #137
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Well half right?
Same as me. Won my pool but lost the hedge bet.

Was looking good until SF decided to throw the ball.
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