[Signing] Oilers extend F Leon Draisaitl (8x$14M AAV)

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Why is it not possible that he simply believes the Oilers are a good team that are a threat to win the cup?

I just get tired of the constant over-reaction to someone holding that view.

Lol what a rube

55+ posts defending the Oilers, be smarter

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

High tolerance for trolling and giving them the benefit of the doubt after pages of buffoonery, but clamping down on regular members for calling a spade a spade.

Boo this man.

[Groot]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

You're getting triggered by a Flames fan.

The only difference between you and I is that I don't feel the need to berate and consume my life with such a skewed opinion of a sports team - even if they're the rivals.

Rivals you say? What rivals? They're competing for the Cup while we're chasing a #1 draft pick so we can have our own McDavid. There is no rivalry where there is no competition. A rivalry is only valid if there's two equal dogs in the fight otherwise it's pointless exercise of just hating on the better team.

Remember back to 2010-2015 Oilers? What was the Flames record against them during that period? It wasn't even close. We trashed them.

Life goes full circle. We have to hold out hope that some other team in the league will do the job for us by knocking them out.

You called CP posters "kids" in a previous post and then use phrases like "triggered"? Standard troll response when you can't actually address the content of the post. This is a message board, you post, people post in response. Thats how it works. Nobody is triggered by some Oilers troll that glosses over every potential and real negative about the team. The critiques about the team are actually shared by many Oilers fans but tell us again how unintelligent it is.

A rivalry is a rivalry regardless of how good either rival is. So the Oilers weren't rivals during there decade plus of darkness? You think Oilers fans stop chirping Flames because there team is better at this very moment? Are you insane? So you don't understand rivalries, ages, gambling odds, contracts.

They'll be a top 7-10 team. Like last year. Who knows how the stars will align in the playoffs and if they'll have a golden path to the Finals like last year. They better hope for no injuries as that will turn them to a bubble/non-playoff team real quick. It'll be hilarious if they finally win the Pacific (which they've never done) and then get smoked first round by one of the stronger Central teams in a WC spot.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Lol what a rube

55+ posts defending the Oilers, be smarter

They make comments on sixth round draft picks so it shows commitment to the bit. Really their just a contrarian.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by VilleN

Tough to say... but guys like Crosby, Malkin, Ovechkin, Kopitar, Kane, St.Louis, Datsyuk, Zetterberg.

Originally Posted by butterfly

I'll update it with those players.

Sorry for the delay, I didn't have time to get to this until now.

Here's the update.

The New Legends are the people that VilleN named.

The Old Legends are Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Joe Sakic, Steve Yzerman, and Jaromir Jagr.

The legends never appear to hit their peak because, as you'd expect, they all occurred at different points in their careers.

This is an indexed measure to account for various eras, so a person/group's most productive season is indexed to 1, and all other seasons are some number between 0 and 1. The chart has been adjusted for COVID and lockout shortened seasons, but not for injuries, as those tend to occur more frequently as players age.

Unplayed seasons have been omitted.

[Jay Random]

Eyeballing that graph tells me that the ‘New Legends’ were les consistent than the old ones, but tended to bounce up and down until age 30, after which the downward trend took over.

Which is about what I'd expect, and it tells me that a top scorer who turns 30 in the first playing month of an eight-year deal has very little room to go anywhere but down.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Eyeballing that graph tells me that the ‘New Legends’ were les consistent than the old ones, but tended to bounce up and down until age 30, after which the downward trend took over.

Which is about what I'd expect, and it tells me that a top scorer who turns 30 in the first playing month of an eight-year deal has very little room to go anywhere but down.

Yeah, I was actually quite surprised that they aged appreciably better than the "Old Legends" though. We'd probably have to add about ~20-30 more players to each group to see if it's really a product of the various eras or specific to the particular players that we put in each group.

There is another flaw that I didn't account for which is variability of the scoring environment within each player's career. I would have made that adjustment if I was actually advising someone about a contract offer but for our purposes I think the approximation is good enough.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Eyeballing that graph tells me that the ‘New Legends’ were les consistent than the old ones, but tended to bounce up and down until age 30, after which the downward trend took over.

Which is about what I'd expect, and it tells me that a top scorer who turns 30 in the first playing month of an eight-year deal has very little room to go anywhere but down.

At least we know which folks will be up in arms if the Flames sign Makar for his post 30 seasons in 2027. Would be a tough contract for sure.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

At least we know which folks will be up in arms if the Flames sign Makar for his post 30 seasons in 2027. Would be a tough contract for sure.

Yes, getting 55-75% of their peak production for 135% the cap hit is a suboptimal plan.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Yes, getting 55-75% of their peak production for 135% the cap hit is a suboptimal plan.

I am not sure if Makar turns into a 50 point dman in his next contract or if Draisaitl turns into a 70 point player but I guess we will see.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

I am not sure if Makar turns into a 50 point dman in his next contract or if Draisaitl turns into a 70 point player but I guess we will see.

We will. If the price tag is 55-75% of the current cap hit as a percentage of cap at that time, I'm definitely listening. If it's 135% like Draisaitl, it's silly.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by butterfly

We will. If the price tag is 55-75% of the current cap hit as a percentage of cap at that time, I'm definitely listening. If it's 135% like Draisaitl, it's silly.

Do you would listen and be open to signing Makar if he took a significant pay cut from his current salary? Strange but ok, not sure the Flames will get him with the offer of a big paycut. I thought when you referenced the 55-75% of peak production you meant peak production not salary.

At the start of Makar’s salary he made 11% of cap. You would sign him for 55-75% of that percentage value so somewhere between 6-8.25% of the cap. On a 100 million cap that would be somewhere between a 3 million dollar a year pay cut or a 750,000 dollar a year paycut. That would be a hell of a deal.

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by GGG

They make comments on sixth round draft picks so it shows commitment to the bit. Really their just a contrarian.

Haha.

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

I am not sure if Makar turns into a 50 point dman in his next contract or if Draisaitl turns into a 70 point player but I guess we will see.

Lol @ Makar becoming a 50 point player.

Even chance it's the Flames that give him his UFA / "retirement" contract.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Do you would listen and be open to signing Makar if he took a significant pay cut from his current salary? Strange but ok, not sure the Flames will get him with the offer of a big paycut. I thought when you referenced the 55-75% of peak production you meant peak production not salary.

At the start of Makar’s salary he made 11% of cap. You would sign him for 55-75% of that percentage value so somewhere between 6-8.25% of the cap. On a 100 million cap that would be somewhere between a 3 million dollar a year pay cut or a 750,000 dollar a year paycut. That would be a hell of a deal.

We would have to re-run the projection with appropriate comparable players since we did this for Draisaitl, so only put in forwards. The best forwards of the last ~40 years peak around age 22 and are about 55-75% of that peak in their age 30-37 seasons, which is what was up for bids with Draisaitl.

You are paying for the future, not the past. If you want to pay them "thank you" money for earning their last contract, wait until they retire and just give it to them. No need to put the team at a competitive disadvantage in the meantime.

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

Uhhhh.........no. That's not how it works at all.

Doesn't matter if the Flames are trash, or elite or both teams are equal. Don't care if the Flames are the worst team in the league next season, I still hope the Oilers lose every single game they play.

Forever.

Never said you can't "hope" that they lose.

To not be able to admit that they're a good hockey team with a decent chance to win......that's just ignorance because you're letting your hatred for the team cloud your reasoning.

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by dino7c

No Flames fan makes 50+ posts about how awesome the Oilers are. Its okay though this thread will make for some glorious bumping over the next 9 or so years

Well I hope over the next 2 seasons, we get our top 1-2 pick and draft our franchise Center. So I don't know what you're going to be bumping to see.

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by butterfly

You are paying for the future, not the past. If you want to pay them "thank you" money for earning their last contract, wait until they retire and just give it to them. No need to put the team at a competitive disadvantage in the meantime.

Flames will be a top contender for Makar if he decides to hit the UFA market so better get those posts ready on how he's about to fall off a cliff.

[looooob]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Yeah, I was actually quite surprised that they aged appreciably better than the "Old Legends" though. We'd probably have to add about ~20-30 more players to each group to see if it's really a product of the various eras or specific to the particular players that we put in each group.

There is another flaw that I didn't account for which is variability of the scoring environment within each player's career. I would have made that adjustment if I was actually advising someone about a contract offer but for our purposes I think the approximation is good enough.

I think its definitely plausible that advanced health regimes and training techniques, which I think is being argued (hence the new v old legends) is a real thing- I do wonder if - with these smaller cohorts- the era may be playing a role (I think that is what you are suggesting). the old legends- by some napkin math average around birth year 1967 so their 30s correspond roughly with the peak/onset of the dead puck era?

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

Well I hope over the next 2 seasons, we get our top 1-2 pick and draft our franchise Center. So I don't know what you're going to be bumping to see.

You are pumping the Oilers like crazy, your posts will age poorly IMO. Drai will be a bad contact and the Oilers will be a mediocre team with no future early in this contract and they will be worse than you expect in the short term.

again IMO...time will tell, hence the bump

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

Never said you can't "hope" that they lose.

To not be able to admit that they're a good hockey team with a decent chance to win......that's just ignorance because you're letting your hatred for the team cloud your reasoning.

1) being a fan is not ignorance - you should learn the difference

2) throwing out blanket insults, like calling everyone that disagrees with you ignorant or stupid, does not have the effect that you think it does