[Signing] Oilers extend F Leon Draisaitl (8x$14M AAV)

[SuperMatt18]

The Oilers have probably the best forward group in the league...but the team defense and goaltending does leave big question marks IMO. I'd say there are 5 teams in the West that have the best shot of coming out of the West: Edmonton, Vegas, Vancouver, Colorado, Dallas...Nashville maybe too if they add a top 4 dman with their cap space (Rasmus Andersson anyone.

Lots of the models are using last years data where their xGF metrics were very strong and their team defense was maybe a bit underrated, I'm not sure that's the case this year.

RNH - McDavid - Hyman
Skinner - Draisaitl - Kane
Janmark - Henrique - Arvidsson
Hamblin - Ryan - Perry/Brown/Podkolzin

Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse - Emberson
Kulak - Brown
Stecher

Skinner
Pickard

Henrique and Arvidsson probably help give them a deeper top 9, but I think Foegele, McLeod, and Holloway actually had more upside. The age has to be a worry too, lots of guys at the age where big drop offs generally occur.

If Emberson ends up being good then they might be okay, but if he's more of the journeyman he's been the rest of his career then that back end is in trouble IMO. Brown was literally listed as the worst player in the NHL last year.

Vegas defensive and center depth, and Colorado's ability to match strength against strength still gives them the toughest match up in the West IMO. Vancouver with Demko is probably a good match up too. IMO they were fortunate they avoided both Dallas and Colorado last year.

Vegas: Weak on the wings but great center depth and probably the best defensive core 1-6 in the league. But I'd argue wingers are the easiest thing to add to supplement your team at the deadline.

Barbashev - Eichel - Olofsson
Dorofeyev - Hertl - Stone
Brisson - Karlsson - Holtz
Howden - Roy - Kolesar

Hanifin-Pietrangelo
Theodore - McNabb
Hague - Whitecloud

Hill
Samsonov

Colorado:
Drouin-Mackinnon-Rantanen
Lehkonen - Mittelstadt - Nichushkin
Wood - Colton - Kovalenko
Kviranta - Wagner - O'Connor

Toews - Makar
Girard - Manson
Brannstrom - Kylington

Georgiev
Annunen

Nichushkin probably needs to be back and on form for them to beat Edmonton. But with Mackinnon, Rantanen, Makar, Toews they match up strengths well.

Vancouver:
Debrusk-Pettersson-Boeser
Hoglander-Miller -Sprong
Joshua - Bluger - Garland
Heinen - Suter - Sherwood

Hughes - Hronek
Soucy - Myers
Forbort - Desharnais

Demko
Silovs

Forward depth is pretty good, and if Lekkerimaki and Raty can take the step to the NHL that would really add the extra skill depth for them. Defense is a but soft, but big and length tends to work come playoff time. If Demko is healthy they have the best goaltending in the conference most likely.

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Who would be the better favorites? Florida, Avalanche, Dallas all in the mix. If Markstrom delivers NJD could be a threat. But to me Edmonton and Florida are probably the two at the top of the list.

The Oilers were 9th overall last year, and I'd argue that they will be slightly worse this yeaer.

Of the 8 teams ahead of them over last season, who do you see as an obvious choice to drop below the Oilers? Not saying that none will drop below - but I don't think any of them would immediately be expected to be below the Oilers.

I would suspect the Oilers to drop into the 10-15th overall window for this season. And then it gets tough for future seasons to stay even in that window.

[Saqe]

They are in a world of hurt cap wise after this year. If they don't win now I see their odds dropping drastically in the future, they'll be paying top dollar for every single guy on the team. I'm not sure there is an example out there where a team wins after paying market value to their top guys.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by You Need a Thneed

The Oilers were 9th overall last year, and I'd argue that they will be slightly worse this yeaer.

Of the 8 teams ahead of them over last season, who do you see as an obvious choice to drop below the Oilers? Not saying that none will drop below - but I don't think any of them would immediately be expected to be below the Oilers.

I would suspect the Oilers to drop into the 10-15th overall window for this season. And then it gets tough for future seasons to stay even in that window.

They were 9th overall after a disaster of a start.
I think they will be better than Boston, Vancouver, Winnipeg, Carolina. And potentially others.

[looooob]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Was mainly thinking this year, but 3 years is probably their window.

I don't love everything about their team but McDavid is a cheat code. And I think their additions this off-season will help with their even strength scoring.

Question is if the blueline and goaltending is good enough.

Who would be the better favorites? Florida, Avalanche, Dallas all in the mix. If Markstrom delivers NJD could be a threat. But to me Edmonton and Florida are probably the two at the top of the list.

admittedly I've only been sleepily following the offseason so there may be obvious deficiencies with some of these teams that I've ignored but I guess the Canes and Rangers are in the mix to me..


the Oilers age frankly makes this quite hard to handicap- yet of course I recognize their big 2 (or big 3) are prime age players for sure and you aren't wrong 97 is a cheat code. I don't know how to handicap the impact of a deep playoff run on an already old team- what do Ekholm, Hyman, Nuge, Nurse etc? look like this year- not trivial IMO and I'm not sure

[Jiri Hrdina]

Rangers are a good call. They could be in the mix too.

[Enoch Root]

When it comes to determining contenders, I think you have to separate the conferences - only one team comes out of each, so it's kind of irrelevant how many contenders there are in the other conference.

In the west, I think COL and DAL are the 2 best teams. Last year, WPG and VAN also finished ahead of them. I think VAN is vulnerable for a prop, and WPG, while impossible to predict from year to year, may be vulnerable too.

On the other hand, I think the west is going to be deeper this year. Difficult to say what LAK will be, and I think VGS is slipping, but NSH, MIN and STL are all going to be better and be in the mix.

I would place EDM 3rd in the conference, but it will be a tougher fight this year, and there are probably 10 teams that could become a factor.

And the east is stronger (for whever gets that far)

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

They were 9th overall after a disaster of a start.
I think they will be better than Boston, Vancouver, Winnipeg, Carolina. And potentially others.

VAN and WPG are vulnerable, but I don't see CAR sliding.

For the teams that were below them, any of TOR, LAK and TBL could just as easily finish ahead of them. And NSH, STL, MIN, NJD, DET and maybe others, will be improved.

I also don't think there will be as many easy points in the west as last year - SEA, Utah, CHI, and even ANA and SJS will all be improved from last year.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

VAN and WPG are vulnerable, but I don't see CAR sliding.

For the teams that were below them, any of TOR, LAK and TBL could just as easily finish ahead of them. And NSH, STL, MIN, NJD, DET and maybe others, will be improved.

I also don't think there will be as many easy points in the west as last year - SEA, Utah, CHI, and even ANA and SJS will all be improved from last year.

Bit off topic but Detroit is going to be a bottom 10 team in the league this year IMO. That roster is not very good.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Bit off topic but Detroit is going to be a bottom 10 team in the league this year IMO. That roster is not very good.

I would take that bet

[blankall]

Originally Posted by VilleN

No. This is definitely market value. He probably could have gotten 15M/7 years if he wanted to leave.

How many teams can afford to give him $15 million? How many would be dumb enough to do so? Only a desperate and crazy team would do that.

Once again, I agree that the Oilers had to sign him, but my point is that some Oilers fans are treating this like it's a bargain. It's not. If your comparable is the most desperate and crazy team in the NHL on the UFA market, it's not a good signing.

[kevman]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

They were 9th overall after a disaster of a start.
I think they will be better than Boston, Vancouver, Winnipeg, Carolina. And potentially others.

The thing is I don't think you can rule out another disaster start for them. This is a team that's been hot and cold for years and the coach carrousel has shown just that. There's no denying they were one of the top teams in the 2nd half of last year but what team shows up next year?

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

You understand that betting odds are a function of how much money is being wagered on the various teams, right? No, clearly you don't.

It's a way to judge public sentiment.

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by All In Good Time

No, the tens of thousands that bet on the Oilers at this time of year are stupid.

Lol ok. They seem to have a similar line of opinion of me. I'd just think you live in a state of denial.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

It's a way to judge public sentiment.

Yes it is - which is what we all said, and is exactly not what you said in your prior post.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

Lol ok. They seem to have a similar line of opinion of me. I'd just think you live in a state of denial.

The Oilers were the betting favorite last year too. Were they right?

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

In the west, I think COL and DAL are the 2 best teams. Last year, WPG and VAN also finished ahead of them. I think VAN is vulnerable for a prop, and WPG, while impossible to predict from year to year, may be vulnerable too.

I would place EDM 3rd in the conference, but it will be a tougher fight this year, and there are probably 10 teams that could become a factor.

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

Canucks objectively got worse. So the Flames fans only real hope is VGK, DAL or COL knocking out the Oilers in the playoffs.

Going back and forth from Page 16 to 37.

I'm glad we agree.

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

The Oilers were the betting favorite last year too. Were they right?

Kinda were....they did make Game 7 of the SCF.

Just because they didn't win doesn't mean the odds were wrong. The fact they got that far means they were pretty spot on.

A person who bet on the Oilers to win the Cup would have cashed out the bet at a profit even at the onset of Game 1 of the SCF. So yes- I would consider that an accurate prediction.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

Kinda were....they did make Game 7 of the SCF.

Just because they didn't win doesn't mean the odds were wrong. The fact they got that far means they were pretty spot on.

A person who bet on the Oilers to win the Cup would have cashed out the bet at a profit even at the onset of Game 1 of the SCF. So yes- I would consider that an accurate prediction.

They were just as close to losing to a third stringer in round 2 as they were to the cup

[InternationalVillager]

Originally Posted by dino7c

They were just as close to losing to a third stringer in round 2 as they were to the cup

That's sports.

Did you watch the NFL game last night? Baltimore lose the game by a toe. It's what happens.

Doesn't make Chiefs a lucky team.

In 2022, Flames were one goal away from being knocked out of Round 1 vs Dallas off the backs of a 60+ save performance by Oettinger.

But it didn't happen.