[Signing] Oilers extend F Leon Draisaitl (8x$14M AAV)

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

Cap freeze ended this year. It's the first year of an increase in a long time up to $88M and is projected to continue increasing into the mid $90Ms.

Agents take the average % of cap during the life of the contract as a barometer for negotiation. That's how they get to the AAV. It's not whether his 106 points were worth $14M last year.

NHL contracts in general will start to get higher and higher. the old $8M will be the new $10M etc.

Somebody should have told Reinharts agent dang...57 goals and 94 points at age 28 and only paid 8.6Mx8
now that is a bargain

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

Cap freeze ended this year. It's the first year of an increase in a long time up to $88M and is projected to continue increasing into the mid $90Ms.

Agents take the average % of cap during the life of the contract as a barometer for negotiation. That's how they get to the AAV. It's not whether his 106 points were worth $14M last year.

NHL contracts in general will start to get higher and higher. the old $8M will be the new $10M etc.

Actually it's the third consecutive year with an increase, but okay.

When you view it as percentage of cap it neutralizes the nominal value of the contract. "The old $8M will be the new $10M so the Draisaitl contract is cool" ignores the fact that "The old $4M will be the new $5M and that will be the cost to dress competent complementary players".

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

Outlier.

He knows it. Florida knows it. And it's reflected in the contract AAV.

His previous career high was 33 goals. And even though he scored 57 goals, he didn't crack 100 points.

Sam Reinhart cooked on the PP last year LARGELY as a beneficiary of Barkov and Tkachuk. Watch the tape.

Sounds like someone else lol

I know they aren't the same its just the whole "took a discount" nonsense

And come on now he had 94 points...12th in scoring to Drai's 7th

[butterfly]

Connor Bedard is up for an extension next year, right? I wonder what his age 21-28 years are worth if Leon Draisaitl's age 30-37 years are worth $14MM per year.

[Redrum]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

Outlier.

He knows it. Florida knows it. And it's reflected in the contract AAV.

His previous career high was 33 goals. And even though he scored 57 goals, he didn't crack 100 points.

Sam Reinhart cooked on the PP last year LARGELY as a beneficiary of Barkov and Tkachuk. Watch the tape.

Haha!!!

[dino7c]

Best case scenario now is McDavid leaving and Drai dropping by 20+ points without McPP or teams focusing on McDavid

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Best case scenario now is McDavid leaving and Drai dropping by 20+ points without McPP or teams focusing on McDavid

Why? Double down! Then we get the Decade of Decline followed hopefully by a Decade of Darkness.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

So the consensus in some circles is that a guy who has averaged 50 goals and 68 assists for 118 points per 82 games played over the last 6 seasons getting signed longterm to contract is a bad thing?

I think it’s more the Oilers didn’t improve there Stanley cup odds and have 1 or 2 seasons left as declining contenders. The Oilers didn’t have good options.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by GGG

I think it’s more the Oilers didn’t improve there Stanley cup odds and have 1 or 2 seasons left as declining contenders. The Oilers didn’t have good options.

They had great options. Thankfully, they didn't exercise any of them and chose this.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by butterfly

They had great options. Thankfully, they didn't exercise any of them and chose this.

And those options were?

With specific trade packages please.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by GGG

And those options were?

With specific trade packages please.

1. Do nothing, take another crack at it with Draisaitl and McDavid still near their peaks. Let Draisaitl leave, win or lose, or circle back to option 3.

2. A trade. What did Vancouver pay for 26 games of 29-year-old Elias Lindholm, and what could Edmonton have got for 82 games of 29-year-old Leon Draisaitl?

3. A reasonable 1-3 year extension for practically any amount, which still leaves option 2 available in the future.

4. Break the bank for a max-term retirement deal at 15.2% of cap for ages 30-37 compared to 11.3% of cap for ages 22-29.

Guess which one the Oilers chose?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by butterfly

1. Do nothing, take another crack at it with Draisaitl and McDavid still near their peaks. Let Draisaitl leave, win or lose, or circle back to option 3.

2. A trade. What did Vancouver pay for 26 games of 29-year-old Elias Lindholm, and what could Edmonton have got for 82 games of 29-year-old Leon Draisaitl?

3. A reasonable 1-3 year extension for practically any amount, which still leaves option 2 available in the future.

4. Break the bank for a max-term retirement deal at 15.2% of cap for ages 30-37 compared to 11.3% of cap for ages 22-29.

Guess which one the Oilers chose?

1) lose him for nothing - Minor drop in probability of winning this season, major drop in probability the following seasons. What is the realistic free agent class after next year you are targeting with the cap space?

2) What trade is available here?

3) A 1-3 year contract would inherently have a higher cap hit than the 8 year contract he signed. I don’t see how that improves the oilers cup odds over the term of that contract. A 1 year deal would have needed to be close to 20% as he is making 16.5 in cash the first 3 years. So how does 3 x 16.5 help the oilers?

Can you explain how any of the above options increase the oilers cup odds in their current window? You also don’t consider in your options if McDavids resigning was contingent on this. Considering McGM has influence I think that should factor into your calculus.

The Oilers just put a cap on how good they can be but it is likely their best opportunity.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by GGG

1) lose him for nothing - Minor drop in probability of winning this season, major drop in probability the following seasons. What is the realistic free agent class after next year you are targeting with the cap space?

2) What trade is available here?

3) A 1-3 year contract would inherently have a higher cap hit than the 8 year contract he signed. I don’t see how that improves the oilers cup odds over the term of that contract. A 1 year deal would have needed to be close to 20% as he is making 16.5 in cash the first 3 years. So how does 3 x 16.5 help the oilers?

Can you explain how any of the above options increase the oilers cup odds in their current window? You also don’t consider in your options if McDavids resigning was contingent on this. Considering McGM has influence I think that should factor into your calculus.

The Oilers just put a cap on how good they can be but it is likely their best opportunity.

It isn't losing him for nothing. Would you sign 29-year-old Draisaitl to 1x$8.5M if you had Stanley Cup aspirations this year? Or do you have to hitch your wagon to a bloated retirement contract so you didn't "lose him for nothing"? Why would you pay for something overpriced that you don't want?

[butterfly]

This "lose him for nothing" canard is destined to be a relic of the past once enough smart GMs ascend to the position. It's backward-looking. Why would you want a 30-year-old on a max term deal? You already got the best years out of the player in the past, let someone else overpay. I'm glad it's the Oilers of all teams.

Yes, there are people like Kopitar, Crosby, Yzerman, Pavelski, Jagr. They exist. Is it a smart bet to think that your 30-year-old is going to mimic them, or are they generally outliers on the age curve?

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by butterfly

1. Do nothing, take another crack at it with Draisaitl and McDavid still near their peaks. Let Draisaitl leave, win or lose, or circle back to option 3.

2. A trade. What did Vancouver pay for 26 games of 29-year-old Elias Lindholm, and what could Edmonton have got for 82 games of 29-year-old Leon Draisaitl?

3. A reasonable 1-3 year extension for practically any amount, which still leaves option 2 available in the future.

4. Break the bank for a max-term retirement deal at 15.2% of cap for ages 30-37 compared to 11.3% of cap for ages 22-29.

Guess which one the Oilers chose?

# 3 was likely not available, he was not signing a short term deal. Crazy for him to do that.

#2 , if you trade him, you may as well trade Pissy as well, as you are signalling a full rebuild. Likely the best move long term, but one that can’t be made from a business stand point.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

# 3 was likely not available, he was not signing a short term deal. Crazy for him to do that.

#2 , if you trade him, you may as well trade Pissy as well, as you are signalling a full rebuild. Likely the best move long term, but one that can’t be made from a business stand point.

I thought Draisaitl was 'Pissy'?

Why would it be crazy for Draisaitl to sign a 1-3 year deal? Because everyone and their dog knows that an 8-year deal is stupid? Case closed, I guess.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by butterfly

I thought Draisaitl was 'Pissy'?

Why would it be crazy for Draisaitl to sign a 1-3 year deal? Because everyone and their dog knows that an 8-year deal is stupid? Case closed, I guess.

Because of risk.

He gets a career ending injury during that time, how much money did he leave on the table?

80-90 Million dollars.

Its why these guys all want term....security.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Because of risk.

He gets a career ending injury during that time, how much money did he leave on the table?

80-90 Million dollars.

Its why these guys all want term....security.

Then he'd get nothing from me and I'd use one of the first two options. I'd be in the business of paying people money who are going to earn it on the ice, not providing people security.

Again...

Originally Posted by butterfly

Connor Bedard is up for an extension next year, right? I wonder what his age 21-28 years are worth if Leon Draisaitl's age 30-37 years are worth $14MM per year.

[transplant99]

Well you wouldnt last long as a GM if you were willing to part with all your best players because they want long term deals....someone else will certainly be happy to take them on and win hockey games with them.

Bedard doesnt have the leverage that Draisaitl has, therefor he is unlikely to get the same money.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Well you wouldnt last long as a GM if you were willing to part with all your best players because they want long term deals....someone else will certainly be happy to take them on and win hockey games with them.

Bedard doesnt have the leverage that Draisaitl has, therefor he is unlikely to get the same money.

I didn't say I wouldn't give players max-term deals. I'd happily give them out to players emerging from ELC.

Connor Bedard doesn't have the leverage that Draisaitl has? He has all the leverage in the world. Chicago wouldn't trade him for anything, he has the most trade value in the league because he's the most valuable commodity in the league.

But, yeah, if you want to pay 35-year-olds 15.2% of cap, I hope you're in my division.