American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[Hemi-Cuda]

The further we get from the hype around Biden dropping out and Kamala accepting the nomination at the DNC, the more I think Trump wins. Young people just don't vote, and I think there are enough older centrist voters in the swing states who just can't bring themselves to vote for a woman and sit at home instead

[direwolf]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

The further we get from the hype around Biden dropping out and Kamala accepting the nomination at the DNC, the more I think Trump wins. Young people just don't vote, and I think there are enough older centrist voters in the swing states who just can't bring themselves to vote for a woman and sit at home instead

I don't know about that. From what my American friends and family tell me, Democrat voters are pretty damn motivated right now, and young people seem very energized. Will that translate to them actually getting off their asses and voting? Who knows. But the general consensus I get from folks down there is that people are way more excited now than they were when Biden was still the nominee.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by direwolf

I don't know about that. From what my American friends and family tell me, Democrat voters are pretty damn motivated right now, and young people seem very energized. Will that translate to them actually getting off their asses and voting? Who knows. But the general consensus I get from folks down there is that people are way more excited now than they were when Biden was still the nominee.

But do they live in the right states? The election is going to hinge on Pennsylvania and North Carolina, both are a coin toss. And as much as democrats are salivating at the though of Kamala debating Trump, I think that's only going to hurt her. Trump will lie, spew his word salad, display his misogyny and racism for the entire world, but it won't matter, the media will focus on none of it. Instead they'll dissect everything Kamala says completely, and any fumble by her turns into a huge negative. She also hasn't shown a real strength for talking off the cuff, and it's a stacked deck against her. I think Trump gains in the polls after the debate

[Duruss]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

The further we get from the hype around Biden dropping out and Kamala accepting the nomination at the DNC, the more I think Trump wins. Young people just don't vote, and I think there are enough older centrist voters in the swing states who just can't bring themselves to vote for a woman and sit at home instead

Alan Lichtman is calling it for Kamala. That is a very good sign.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

One of the biggest failures with the media is the lack of conversation of Trump’s mental health. Lots of discussion when Biden was still in the race but now it’s basically crickets.

This man is not well. This is not normal. This should not be acceptable to anybody. He needs help, not a job running a country.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1832502731782942981

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by Duruss

Alan Lichtman is calling it for Kamala. That is a very good sign.

He was calling it for Biden too, even after the debate. So I wouldn't take his prediction as a reason to sleep soundly at night.

[direwolf]

And somehow millions of people still support this lunatic. What an embarrassing country.

https://www.rollingstone.com/politic...on-1235097401/

Donald Trump held a rally on Saturday in Wisconsin, one of the key battleground states that may help determine the outcome of the upcoming presidential election. He visited the town of Mosinee as he worked to shore up his base, which includes working-class and rural dwellers.

With 59 days to the election, on Saturday he proposed killing the federal Department of Education. “I’m dying to get back to do this: We will ultimately eliminate the federal Department of Education and send education back to Wisconsin and back to the states,” Trump said to cheers. “We’ll send it back to the states so that Ron Johnson can run it.”

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

This is very anecdotal, but I know a lot of people from blue states that have been moving to Texas, mostly for work, but also because of cost of living. Many of those have been moving from California.

Texas is moving blue at some point because if you have a strong economy, you attract the highly educated and professional classes. They tend to vote overwhelmingly blue.

All these people moving to Alberta and we still can’t punt the garbage UCP.

[Duruss]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

He was calling it for Biden too, even after the debate. So I wouldn't take his prediction as a reason to sleep soundly at night.

That isn't true. He said they should stick to Biden because the incumbency key is an important key.

[Josh]

Don't underestimate the hatred for Trump.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by Duruss

That isn't true. He said they should stick to Biden because the incumbency key is an important key.

It is true. If you look at the keys right now, even in a worst case scenario, Harris only drops 5 of the keys. If Biden stayed on he would've only dropped 4 keys. His system very definitively predicted a Biden victory.


On a separate note...

Spoiler!

Look, I know that most people think the Hilter comparisons are over the top. But when Trump posts stuff like this, you have to realize he's as psychopathic and conniving as anyone can possibly be. Only someone made of the same ingredients as Hitler and Mussolini would post this publicly.

[puffnstuff]

He called him Leon in his ramblefest today lol

[wittynickname]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

But do they live in the right states? The election is going to hinge on Pennsylvania and North Carolina, both are a coin toss. And as much as democrats are salivating at the though of Kamala debating Trump, I think that's only going to hurt her. Trump will lie, spew his word salad, display his misogyny and racism for the entire world, but it won't matter, the media will focus on none of it. Instead they'll dissect everything Kamala says completely, and any fumble by her turns into a huge negative. She also hasn't shown a real strength for talking off the cuff, and it's a stacked deck against her. I think Trump gains in the polls after the debate

I can only speak for what I see/hear speaking with clients at work, the signs I see popping up.

I only know a few Trump diehards who come into my salon, and they've always supported him. I know several old school Republicans who absolutely loathe Trump. They may not be willing to vote for Kamala but they might just skip voting for President at all. My clients who are more liberal are fired up. I've never seen enthusiasm like it in my years behind the chair in a salon.

I was in some rural-ish parts outside of Pittsburgh today and there were definitely plenty of Trump signs - but that's not new. In the city itself, Harris has far more visible support. Even some houses in my neighborhood that used to fly Trump flags proudly are no longer doing so. There are a few houses that have signs up for all the other Republican nominees (for state rep/senate, etc) but not one for Trump. And my neighborhood already has more Harris signs up in early September than Biden had in late Oct 2020.

I won't be comfortable until they call PA for Harris, because 2016 flashbacks are going to haunt me for years, but I'm way way more optimistic than I've been in a long time.

[GirlySports]

Harris needs to go on the offense, gun control, abortion, and the economy. She cant let Trump do all the attacking in the debates, even if it's all lies.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by wittynickname

I can only speak for what I see/hear speaking with clients at work, the signs I see popping up.

I only know a few Trump diehards who come into my salon, and they've always supported him. I know several old school Republicans who absolutely loathe Trump. They may not be willing to vote for Kamala but they might just skip voting for President at all. My clients who are more liberal are fired up. I've never seen enthusiasm like it in my years behind the chair in a salon.

I was in some rural-ish parts outside of Pittsburgh today and there were definitely plenty of Trump signs - but that's not new. In the city itself, Harris has far more visible support. Even some houses in my neighborhood that used to fly Trump flags proudly are no longer doing so. There are a few houses that have signs up for all the other Republican nominees (for state rep/senate, etc) but not one for Trump. And my neighborhood already has more Harris signs up in early September than Biden had in late Oct 2020.

I won't be comfortable until they call PA for Harris, because 2016 flashbacks are going to haunt me for years, but I'm way way more optimistic than I've been in a long time.

The USA is literally at stake, so I hope so.

You know all the rhetoric about defending the country when it comes to veterans, all the wars that have been fought, etc. THIS is the most crucial fight the country will have ever encountered. If Trump wins, the USA is ####ED. It will no longer be a democracy and everything it stood for will be destroyed.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

This is very anecdotal, but I know a lot of people from blue states that have been moving to Texas, mostly for work, but also because of cost of living. Many of those have been moving from California.

Texas is moving blue at some point because if you have a strong economy, you attract the highly educated and professional classes. They tend to vote overwhelmingly blue.

Unless they shift to red after moving; considering they're moving in frustration of their old state governments.
Maybe Trump is too extreme for them; but I don't see them moving from California to Texas and wanting to bring California politics with them.

[flames_fan_down_under]

Times Siena Poll has Trump and Kamala essentially 50:50. Still a lot of work to be done by Kamala.

I know that for many this is true, but I just will never, ever understand the appeal of Trump. Ever. He is the embodiment of every personality trait that I find either irritating or just plain revolting. It’s just wild to me that so many people want him in power. I don’t understand the world I am living in.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by flames_fan_down_under

I know that for many this is true, but I just will never, ever understand the appeal of Trump. Ever. He is the embodiment of every personality trait that I find either irritating or just plain revolting. It’s just wild to me that so many people want him in power. I don’t understand the world I am living in.

The simple reality is that human beings are generally pretty awful. Best avoided, really, if you can manage it.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

Unless they shift to red after moving; considering they're moving in frustration of their old state governments.
Maybe Trump is too extreme for them; but I don't see them moving from California to Texas and wanting to bring California politics with them.

They are likely moving for housing cost. Thats a function of climate rather than politics.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by flames_fan_down_under

Times Siena Poll has Trump and Kamala essentially 50:50. Still a lot of work to be done by Kamala.

I know that for many this is true, but I just will never, ever understand the appeal of Trump. Ever. He is the embodiment of every personality trait that I find either irritating or just plain revolting. It’s just wild to me that so many people want him in power. I don’t understand the world I am living in.

Young white males. There is a gap of 50 points between young white females and young white males.

What is role of the white male in a Democrat world?

You look at all the orgs that endorse Harris, none are white males. If you came from Mars and watched the DNC, you'd think America was 80 percent female and 70 percent black.

The selection was Walz is supposed to present a different role for white males.