2019/2020 Trade Speculation and Rumors 2.0

[Crown Royal]

Originally Posted by Geeoff

the uncertainty of these picks is the best reason to make as many of them as you can.


The draft is a crapshoot but it's also a double-edged sword because it's really the main way to build a good team

The way to build a good team is with a little bit of everything, including great trades.

[Poster]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

They also use data, and lots of it - and yeah, undoubtedly more complicated data sets than just NHLe, but it's far from a meaningless point of data.

Teams that use data in their decision making process generally don't do dumb-ass stuff like drafting Hunter Smith. There's a reason why you've not seen the Flames make mistakes like that very often (*cough*Keegan Kanzig*cough*) since Tree has taken over.

Perhaps they do although I doubt they use this nonsense NHLe stat. However we aren’t talking about an NHL teams analysis, we are talking about your analysis that seems to rely solely on this made up stat.

Go ahead though and use it as you see fit. I just don’t think anyone else should.

Sorry to derail the conversation.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Poster

Perhaps they do although I doubt they use this nonsense NHLe stat. However we aren’t talking about an NHL teams analysis, we are talking about your analysis that seems to rely solely on this made up stat.

Go ahead though and use it as you see fit. I just don’t think anyone else should.

Sorry to derail the conversation.

It's not derailing. Made up stat? I suppose all stats are made up. I literally gave examples of WHY you should use data and gave some pretty strong examples.

Yeah, it's not 100% perfect - but nothing in the draft is, but data sets like NHLe (and whatever internal systems teams use) help teams avoid making terrible decisions that would otherwise be influenced by personal bias/emotion - or misguided preferences towards stuff like player size.


14th Overall: NHLe of 26 - Zemgus Girgensons
15th Overall: NHLe of 23 - Cody Ceci
16th Overall: NHLe of 14 - Tom Wilson
17th Overall: NHLe of 35 - Tomas Hertl
18th Overall: NHLe of 19 - Teuvo Teravainen
19th Overall: Goalie - Andrei Vasilevskiy
21st Overall: NHLe of 11 - Mark Jankowski
22nd Overall: NHLe of 13 - Olli Maata

The Flames traded down from 14, took the worst NHLe in that grouping, and ended up with the 2nd worst player on the list - as Girgensons busted. This was Feaster (emotional), Weisbrod (constantly trying to be the smartest guy in the room), and an inexperienced Conroy riding the hype train - using data would have helped them. It's also entirely possible that they ignored data sets at this time because they were bad at their jobs, or that the team hadn't invested in the field yet so they didn't have data sets to the "modern" level.

It's not perfect, but it's a nice guiding light.

[Major Major]

Originally Posted by Poster

NHL teams harvest NHL quality players by watching them play, talking to coaches who worked with the player before AND by applying development techniques and protocols after the draft.

They don’t use random fan boi stats. I mean Kucherov probably was a better player than Witherspoon, go figure.

Of course they do. Chris Snow is involved with the draft process as the analytics guy. I think his sway in the organization is pretty big at this point.

[dammage79]

The Flames are not asset Rich to be bleeding picks like they do. Cut too deep and you bleed out. Trading the 1st in of itself isn't the problem, the entire body of work spending assets like candy is the problem.

Besides the price on Murray is getting cheaper as we get closer to FA. Dont need to spend a 1st for a goalie.

[Crown Royal]

Originally Posted by dammage79

The Flames are not asset Rich to be bleeding picks like they do. Cut too deep and you bleed out. Trading the 1st in of itself isn't the problem, the entire body of work spending assets like candy is the problem.

Besides the price on Murray is getting cheaper as we get closer to FA. Dont need to spend a 1st for a goalie.

"bleeding picks the way they do"

This is such an awful narrative. Before Treliving "bled" picks, he acquire da ton in order to be able to move them out and any time he's traded higher picks, it's almost always been for young cost controlled assets.

[Poster]

Originally Posted by Major Major

Of course they do. Chris Snow is involved with the draft process as the analytics guy. I think his sway in the organization is pretty big at this point.

I’m not saying they don’t use stats to compare players. I’m saying they don’t use NHLe.

Anyhow. Now trade rumours, apologies for ranting.

[Jiri Hrdina]

I like NHLe for a general gauge of offensive upside.
It's a directional view though and should be used as such.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I like NHLe for a general gauge of offensive upside.
It's a directional view though and should be used as such.

I like it as a tool when assessing 1st and 2nd round picks - because generally that's where you're trying to hit on offensive production.

It's also a bright spotlight on later round kids that have "issues" like being undersized. It's why I'm so over the top in love with Dmitri Ovchinnikov and wanting the Flames to draft him - even as early as late in the 2nd round. From a fan perspective, it's a fun tool because you can find players who you otherwise wouldn't know about. Ovchinnikov is buried on most projected draft lists - but he had a huge jump between his D-1 and D-0. He's 5'10", is a Centre/Left-Winger and has top-end talent. He's also off to a huge start in the MHL with 7 points in 3 games this season...I really want this kid drafted.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Crown Royal

"bleeding picks the way they do"

This is such an awful narrative. Before Treliving "bled" picks, he acquire da ton in order to be able to move them out and any time he's traded higher picks, it's almost always been for young cost controlled assets.

No, it's not an awful narrative. Travis Hamonic was not a young player and that burned 3 assets. Hamilton trade was perfect, not the player I'd have targeted but it was a great exchange of picks. And eventually balanced out getting Hanifin and Lindholm back.

Tree spent 3 picks for 2 years of one player and will have absolutely nothing to show for it in the future. It was a terrible setback.


Yes, the pick spending is bad at the rate the Flames do it. Thankfully so far the scouts have been able to unearth some good talent with later picks but you have to use your 1sts more than once every 2 years.

IMO, if you're going to trade a 1st it should be every 3 or 4 years.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Poster

I’m not saying they don’t use stats to compare players. I’m saying they don’t use NHLe.

Anyhow. Now trade rumours, apologies for ranting.

NHLe is just a proxy for actual point production, and is just normalized for things like league, age, etc.

NHLe actually has a fair bit of science in it in a model, and if you look at late round picks that end up hitting (guys like Kucherov / Point) it's guys that usually had great NHLe.

Really all that it shows is that in the end you should value production. Guys that tend to be able to produce in the NHL are guys that were able to produce in other leagues from 16-18 years old.

Biggest issues with drafting tend to occur when people fall in love with a guys toolbox (Big=good) even though he's never been able to produce or vice versa ignore a guys production because they don't like a physical attribute (small=bad, skating).

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Yeah, I mean...data is dumb. The draft is completely random, so you may as well pick a first name out of a hat, and then a last name out of a beer bottle, and then assign them to teams and have those teams battle to the death to see which name most closely resembles that of someone in the draft.

You tell me, which team was smarter:

57th Overall: NHLe of 4 in their D-0
58th Overall: NHLe of 41 in their D-0

That's Wotherspoon Vs. Kucherov

Or how about

54th Overall: NHLe of 1 in their D-0
55th Overall: NHLe of 9 in their D-0
79th Overall: NHLe of 31 in their D-0

That's Hunter Smith Vs. Brandon Montour Vs. Brayden Point

You're killing me man.

Huge reason why the Bolts are a perennial contender and why the Flames are perennial 1st round fodder.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by dammage79

No, it's not a poor excuse. Travis Hamonic was not a young player and that burned 3 assets. Hamilton trade was perfect, not the player I'd have targeted but it was a great exchange of picks. And eventually balanced out getting Hainifin and Lindholm back.

Tree spent 3 picks for 2 years of one player and will have absolutely nothing to show for it in the future. It was a terrible setback.


Yes, the pick spending is bad at the rate the Flames do it. Thankfully so far the scouts have been able to unearth some good talent with later pick but you have to use your 1sts more than once every 2 years.

IMO, if you're going to trade a 1st it should be every 3 or 4 years.

Yeah there is no way to defend the Hamonic trade, it was a terrible move for long term asset management. I liked it at the time, but realize now it was a mistake and I would hope Treliving would stay away from moves like that going forward. Trading a 1st for Kuemper would be very, very similar.

The Hamilton trade at least they had control for a lengthy period of time and he was a much younger player. Looking back at it I could take it or leave it, but in the end they were able to parlay him into more young assets that are still in the fold. Hamonic though, he's gone and he didn't ever really move the needle and now we don't have the fruit from those three draft picks still ripening.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Poster

I’m not saying they don’t use stats to compare players. I’m saying they don’t use NHLe.

Anyhow. Now trade rumours, apologies for ranting.

I am also fairly certain NHL scouts don't depend on NHLe, but that does not make it a useless dataset, and especially moreso as more and more data is collected. Maybe a better way to think about it is as a quantifier for some of the finer things that scouts will see on the ice: NHLe is an aggregate number that is based on the past behaviour of NHL players prior to their arrival in the NHL. Because it factors in EVERY player, the number it produces tends to be fairly reliable insofar as it will predict on average how productive a player may be in the NHL, in his rookie season. That's all.

Of course, it is far from everything, but as more and more datapoints are collected, it should continue to be more and more accurate.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Crown Royal

"bleeding picks the way they do"

This is such an awful narrative. Before Treliving "bled" picks, he acquire da ton in order to be able to move them out and any time he's traded higher picks, it's almost always been for young cost controlled assets.

I wouldn't call it a tired narrative. The last three drafts speak for themselves. Feel free to justify the trades but the Flames have been running a draft pick deficit lately and I get why people are hoping it doesn't happen again this year.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Crown Royal

"bleeding picks the way they do"

This is such an awful narrative. Before Treliving "bled" picks, he acquire da ton in order to be able to move them out and any time he's traded higher picks, it's almost always been for young cost controlled assets.

Hamonic, Smith, Elliott trades were the ones that hurt. Moved assets for guys that were here for no more than 3 years, and who weren't pieces that really helped on the ice either.

Treliving has been in charge of 5 drafts here are his picks in each round.

1st Round: 3 picks (Hamilton trade was okay, Hamonic was bad)
2nd Round: 4 picks (None in the last three years)
3rd Round: 2 picks
4th Round: 6 picks
5th Round: 4 picks
6th Round: 5 picks
7th Rounds: 5 picks

So overall we should have made 35 picks under Treliving, and we've made 29.

And the problem is the picks we've moved are the high value picks in the first three rounds (only drafted 9 out of 15 under Treliving), and it's been worse the last three seasons.

Over the last three years we've had 2 first rounders, no second rounders, and 1 third rounder (3/9)...that's bleeding picks for sure.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

You're killing me man.

Huge reason why the Bolts are a perennial contender and why the Flames are perennial 1st round fodder.

You can at least look at the positives that the Flames are nailing it as of late under Tree's management.

56th Overall in 2016 - NHLe of 25 in D-0
52nd Overall in 2016 - NHLe of 19 in D-0
50th Overall in 2016 - NHLe of 23 in D-0
46th Overall in 2016 - NHLe of 16 in D-0

That's Dube Vs. Allison Vs. Kayumov Vs. Smith - the only forwards taken between 46 and 56 in the '16 draft.

...we need to start "hitting" during free agency at the NHL level to fill out our roster so we can stop spending picks to acquire spare parts. If we can find some real players in free agency and avoid the disasters, we can address the roster gaps and stop the deficit spending and really start building a deep team. The pro scouts are the biggest problem with this team right now.

[getoverit]

Problem i think is we never suck enough to truly get a top pic. Always sucks finishing so many years of not making or barely making playoffs, short playoffs. Majority of teams that have a strong history have sucked for a number of years allowing them to stock the shelves or sell their assets for pics at prime times vs after due date post apex. We always think were in it or want to be in it. Ughhhh

[Poster]

Why are we talking about NHLe in a trade rumour thread?

Other than I started the derailment, which I do apologize for. Can we start a new thread where I can rant about the fan boi stats?

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Poster

Why are we talking about NHLe in a trade rumour thread?

Other than I started the derailment, which I do apologize for. Can we start a new thread where I can rant about the fan boi stats?

Got a hot rumour you're sitting on, or... ?