[News] Smith: 'Age is just a number

[ricardodw]

The 2018-19 Flames look a lot like the 2016-17 Jets.

The 2016-17 Jets had 90% of the same same skaters and the same core as they did the next year but decided (were forced to) to go with Hellebuyck and Hutchinson as their goalies rather than journeyman veteran Pavelic.

They had a playoff team that missed the playoffs because Hellebuyck got to play 52 NHL games and learned how to be a #1 NHL goalie while the team missed the playoffs by 8 pts.

Right now the Flames have a great playoff worthy line-up of Skaters and are going into the season with a 36 year old journeyman goalie.

Smith's old team considered Smith to be a journeyman as they kept 1.4M for 2 years to be rid of him.

Are they willing to miss the playoffs (like the 2016-17 Jets) to get Rittich or Gillies the games as a #1 that they need before they step up as a Playoff team #1? Chances that either Gillies or Rittich will take over after getting 30 or so games between them is very slim.


I am waiting for Trevling to make the "promised" move to fix the goalie situation.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

The 2018-19 Flames look a lot like the 2016-17 Jets.

The 2016-17 Jets had 90% of the same same skaters and the same core as they did the next year but decided (were forced to) to go with Hellebuyck and Hutchinson as their goalies rather than journeyman veteran Pavelic.

They had a playoff team that missed the playoffs because Hellebuyck got to play 52 NHL games and learned how to be a #1 NHL goalie while the team missed the playoffs by 8 pts.

Right now the Flames have a great playoff worthy line-up of Skaters and are going into the season with a 36 year old journeyman goalie.

Smith's old team considered Smith to be a journeyman as they kept 1.4M for 2 years to be rid of him.

Are they willing to miss the playoffs (like the 2016-17 Jets) to get Rittich or Gillies the games as a #1 that they need before they step up as a Playoff team #1? Chances that either Gillies or Rittich will take over after getting 30 or so games between them is very slim.


I am waiting for Trevling to make the "promised" move to fix the goalie situation.

Pavelec
398 games
156 wins
2.88 GAA
.907 SV%
18 shut outs

Smith
529 games
220 wins
2.69 GAA
.913 SV%
36 shut outs
Olympic gold medal

at least you're making this stuff easier and easier to debunk!

Smith has age against him but he's not a Pavelec

[kehatch]

The bottom line for me is the Flames need better goaltending this season then they got last season. But they have the same goalies, and one is turning 36 and coming of an injury / poor finish.

We can debate semantics, individual details, or hypothetical situations all day long. But the above is fact. There is legitimate concern that the goaltending will be the same/worse and it is a legitimate risk going into the season.

[dustygoon]

I like Calgary’s net strategy. Not worth trading for and locking in older goalies. A lot of successful teams draft their goalies. Takes time but developing one of ours seems to be a better strategy. And keep drafting more behind until you find Holtby, Vasilevskiy, quick, Gibson, Murray, rinne, etc.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by kehatch

The bottom line for me is the Flames need better goaltending this season then they got last season. But they have the same goalies, and one is turning 36 and coming of an injury / poor finish.

We can debate semantics, individual details, or hypothetical situations all day long. But the above is fact. There is legitimate concern that the goaltending will be the same/worse and it is a legitimate risk going into the season.

Absolutely.

Its the teams Achilles heel for sure.

Smith has age and health. The other goaltenders have a lack of experience.

The added depth and offence should provide a bigger buffer than the 27th ranked offence afforded them last year though, so that helps. Hopefully the coaching staff makes the powerplay more impactful taking some pressure off as well.

The big thing is to have a season that gets off to a good start, gets them in a playoff spot somewhat comfortably so they can rotate Smith in a reasonable fashion.

My biggest worry is the Rittich waiver issue that may or may not create enough worry to keep the team from seeing how ready Gillies is to share more of the workload for next season.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by kehatch

The bottom line for me is the Flames need better goaltending this season then they got last season. But they have the same goalies, and one is turning 36 and coming of an injury / poor finish.

We can debate semantics, individual details, or hypothetical situations all day long. But the above is fact. There is legitimate concern that the goaltending will be the same/worse and it is a legitimate risk going into the season.

Yes, it is a fact that one of the goalies is 36.

It is also a fact that the other 2 goalies are 26 and 24, and both just had their first seasons of exposure to the NHL last year.

So while it is definitely a concern that the 36 year old may be worse, it is also a very realistic possibility that we see progression from the other two - in fact, I expect it.

I am not arguing that goaltending isn't a concern, it is definitely the #1 concern heading into this season. But if we're going to quote facts, let's try to consider all of them in balanced measure.

[kehatch]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Yes, it is a fact that one of the goalies is 36.

It is also a fact that the other 2 goalies are 26 and 24, and both just had their first seasons of exposure to the NHL last year.

So while it is definitely a concern that the 36 year old may be worse, it is also a very realistic possibility that we see progression from the other two - in fact, I expect it.

I am not arguing that goaltending isn't a concern, it is definitely the #1 concern heading into this season. But if we're going to quote facts, let's try to consider all of them in balanced measure.

Rittich is far from a young and inexperienced pup and he has never had the pedigree of being a high end option. Could he take a big step this season? Sure, it's the goal tending position. Anything could happen. But chances are he continues to be a solid backup who struggles when called on to carry the starters load.

Gilles has plenty of potential. But he wasn't ready last season. He was almost at the statistical bottom last season. Some AHL time is probably on the menu for him.

I get they are young. But the Vasilevskys, Murray's, etc didn't go from bad to great. They went from very strong performances in the AHL, to very strong performances in a limited NHL role, and then they won a starting job when their opportunity knocked. That isn't the situation in Calgary so I don't see "being young" as balancing the risk to the positive.

[Enoch Root]

Kipper was 27 when the Flames acquired him.

Vasilevsky and Murray are the exceptions, not the norm.

Suggesting Rittich is what he is at 26, because of his pedigree is just wrong, based on how most goalies' careers evolve.

By no means is progression a certainty from either of them. But assuming they are what they are at this point is just making an emotional argument.

[kehatch]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Kipper was 27 when the Flames acquired him.

Vasilevsky and Murray are the exceptions, not the norm.

Suggesting Rittich is what he is at 26, because of his pedigree is just wrong, based on how most goalies' careers evolve.

By no means is progression a certainty from either of them. But assuming they are what they are at this point is just making an emotional argument.

Based on your example and your suggestion that Vasilevsky and Murray are the exceptions, perhaps I am not the one making an emotional argument.

I didn't suggest Gilles is what he is. I suggested he should start in the AHL. I did suggest it is most likely Rittich is what he is. A season ago just about everyone here had him pegged as a career AHLer. But now he has a bunch of potential based on a difficult season in the NHL?

Whether it is Ramo, Berra, Rittich, or whomeve, people always get attached to these guys. Rittich would probably clear waivers because most teams have a better option at backup. If he was on another team nobody would be suggesting we go out and get him. He doesn't balance the risk we have with our starter.

[sa226]

I agree that the goaltending is a bit of a question mark. Its my biggest concern going into the season.

But it behooves you to at least dig a bit deeper.

Yes Smith is 36. History has shown that goalies start to wear down north of 35 years old. I also tend to think because of his intensity and competitiveness, he makes himself more susceptible to injury. (I have nothing to back this up, just an opinion)

But he only played 55 games last year and really isnt showing signs that retirement is knocking on the door.

Up until he was injured last year, he was very good. Very good backstopping a team that couldn't score.

After the injury Rittich and Gillies get thrown to the wolves in an intense stretch drive that almost required perfection to make the playoffs. Is that an excuse? I don't know, maybe. But thats a tough task for any rookie goalie, regardless of pedigree.

Goaltending is always going to be a question mark, unless you're one of those teams with an undisputed #1. Heck, you could argue Carey Price is a question mark after last season. Kipper is probably the best goalie in the history of the franchise. He was a question mark when first acquired.

The passed 5 years or so, the Flames have had okay to good teams, that absolutely needed excellent goaltending to go anywhere.

This is the best assembled roster in a long time around these parts. Unless something catastrophic happens, I don't think this teams fortunes rest 100% on the shoulders of the goaltenders. For the first time in a long time.

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[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by kehatch

Based on your example and your suggestion that Vasilevsky and Murray are the exceptions, perhaps I am not the one making an emotional argument.



I didn't suggest Gilles is what he is. I suggested he should start in the AHL. I did suggest it is most likely Rittich is what he is. A season ago just about everyone here had him pegged as a career AHLer. But now he has a bunch of potential based on a difficult season in the NHL?



Whether it is Ramo, Berra, Rittich, or whomeve, people always get attached to these guys. Rittich would probably clear waivers because most teams have a better option at backup. If he was on another team nobody would be suggesting we go out and get him. He doesn't balance the risk we have with our starter.

I am curious to know why you still see potential in Gillies, but have basically concluded that Rittich is an AHL goalie when they are separated in age by only 18 mos.


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[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Pavelec
398 games
156 wins
2.88 GAA
.907 SV%
18 shut outs

Smith
529 games
220 wins
2.69 GAA
.913 SV%
36 shut outs
Olympic gold medal

at least you're making this stuff easier and easier to debunk!

Smith has age against him but he's not a Pavelec

The last 2 seasons before the Jets dumped Pavlec- 35-29-12 .914 Sv 2.48 GA 6 SO

Smith's last 2 seasons 44-48-15 .915 sv% and 2.79 GA 6 SO

The only thing that Smith has going for him stats wise is that he played more games with nominally worse results.

[---Hatrick---]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

The last 2 seasons before the Jets dumped Pavlec- 35-29-12 .914 Sv 2.48 GA 6 SO

Smith's last 2 seasons 44-48-15 .915 sv% and 2.79 GA 6 SO

The only thing that Smith has going for him stats wise is that he played more games with nominally worse results.

The season before last, Smith played for the Coyotes who were a bottom feeding team which really hurt his GA average

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

The last 2 seasons before the Jets dumped Pavlec- 35-29-12 .914 Sv 2.48 GA 6 SO

Smith's last 2 seasons 44-48-15 .915 sv% and 2.79 GA 6 SO

The only thing that Smith has going for him stats wise is that he played more games with nominally worse results.

You should go back and look at the stats again. In the last two seasons of which Oavelec played for the Jets, he registered a .904 and .888 sv% respectively, and a 2.78 and 3.55 GAA.

You can’t just make numbers up. People are going to catch them. Even if you push it out to include Pavelec’s .920 sv% the season before those two seasons, you still have him dropping off significantly two years in a row, which Smith has actually improved.

[---Hatrick---]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

You should go back and look at the stats again. In the last two seasons of which Oavelec played for the Jets, he registered a .904 and .888 sv% respectively, and a 2.78 and 3.55 GAA.

You can’t just make numbers up. People are going to catch them. Even if you push it out to include Pavelec’s .920 sv% the season before those two seasons, you still have him dropping off significantly two years in a row, which Smith has actually improved.

LOL wow, I think he actually did just make numbers up in his head to try to help his argument

[the2bears]

Great work on the debunking people. I'm *sure* that *this* time ricardodw will see the logic and change his mind. Instead of reading literally anything and drawing a conclusion that confirms his personal bias and/or the point he's trying to push through trolling.

[Toonage]

Honest question, has he ever been punished? Sin binned?

[mrdonkey]

Originally Posted by Toonage

Honest question, has he ever been punished? Sin binned?

Personally I think he adds great value to the forum as an example of how not to use stats and metrics. We are all better critical thinkers for having him around, safe in the knowledge anything he says will be faulty somehow.

In fact I’m convinced you could use him as a study aid for university labs in scientific inference. For 6 marks please explain how Ricardo’s interpretation is flawed and/or biased.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by mrdonkey

Personally I think he adds great value to the forum as an example of how not to use stats and metrics. We are all better critical thinkers for having him around, safe in the knowledge anything he says will be faulty somehow.

In fact I’m convinced you could use him as a study aid for university labs in scientific inference. For 6 marks please explain how Ricardo’s interpretation is flawed and/or biased.

Lol I think I’m actually going to do this. Great example of confirmation bias.

[kehatch]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I am curious to know why you still see potential in Gillies, but have basically concluded that Rittich is an AHL goalie when they are separated in age by only 18 mos.


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Gilles was a star in college and has been a high profile goalie prospect in the NHL. Rittich was a depth AHL signing from the Czech league. 18-months also makes a big difference at this stage, and Gilles is a year behind due to injury. Does that make anything certain. No, but it is relevant since we are talking about potential. Regardless. Does anyone reasonably expect either of these guys to save our season if Smith doesn't play well or is away for an extended period of time?

The message is the same, the Flames need to get better in net but they didn't make any changes to the position and our starter is coming off an injury and is 36. It is a big gamble.

Hopefully Smith plays like he did in the first half, stays relatively healthy, and Rittich can continue to be a strong back-up.