2022 NFL Playoff Thread

[KelVarnsen]

It's 2022. It's going to be either Pats vs Bucs or Steelers vs Cowboys

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Considering I thought the Eagles would be playing for a top-5 pick this year, this is all house money.

Yeah I expect the Raiders will probably lose this weekend but 5 weeks ago the playoffs seemed like a fantasy so I have that "happy to be here" feeling this week.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Somewhere in these matchups, there are two dogs who are going to win their games.

Based on Sagarin numbers it looks like the spread should favor

Bengals
Bills
Bucs
Cowboys
Steelers
Cards

Market looks to have the Chiefs and Rams about 3 points higher than they should be.

I guess I'll bet my kids college funds on the Steelers moneyline and blame CalgaryGeologist if it doesn't cash.

Historically road teams do well in the first playoff week so I would imagine at least two visiting teams win this weekend and probably one of them will be a surprise. I just don't think it will be the Steelers.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Flaming Homer

Yep, I think Eagles have a decent chance against the Bucs. The Bucs didn't exactly end the season on a high note with all the AB drama, and barely beating the Panthers and Jets.

When the Eagles played them earlier in the year it was still a one score game when the Bucs had prolly the #1 WR group with AB, Evans and Godwin. Now the Bucs are looking a lot thinner and the Eagles seemed to have a bit of an identity under Sirianni.

In terms of other under dogs I think the Cards should handle the Rams pretty easily. Stafford is a notorious choke artist. I think Pats take the Bills down as well.

I know the Bucs have a good run defense but no one has really stopped the Eagles' run game since they switched to their run-heavy offense. The only exception being that really weird Giants game where Siriani tried to go more pass-heavy at the start of the game. The weather conditions also look like they favour the ground game.

Not saying the Eagles win, but that 8 point spread looks a bit high to me.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Somewhere in these matchups, there are two dogs who are going to win their games.

Based on Sagarin numbers it looks like the spread should favor

Bengals
Bills
Bucs
Cowboys
Steelers
Cards

Market looks to have the Chiefs and Rams about 3 points higher than they should be.

I guess I'll bet my kids college funds on the Steelers moneyline and blame CalgaryGeologist if it doesn't cash.

I want a cut of the winnings. I'm not betting the college fund but I've got a decent bet out now. I'm a little choked that I didn't get on it earlier as the odds where higher on Monday than today.

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Somewhere in these matchups, there are two dogs who are going to win their games.

Based on Sagarin numbers it looks like the spread should favor

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Historically road teams do well in the first playoff week so I would imagine at least two visiting teams win this weekend and probably one of them will be a surprise. I just don't think it will be the Steelers.

Underdogs are 30-48 ( 0.348) in Wild Card games since 2002 so statistically 2-3 of them should win this weekend. With the format change I would think this would go down slightly but that probably still means 2 underdog wins.

https://en.as.com/en/2022/01/13/nfl/...15_765933.html

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Lubicon

Underdogs are 30-48 ( 0.348) in Wild Card games since 2002 so statistically 2-3 of them should win this weekend. With the format change I would think this would go down slightly but that probably still means 2 underdog wins.

https://en.as.com/en/2022/01/13/nfl/...15_765933.html

On one hand there is a so called larger mismatch in the 2 vs 7 game on the card, but there also is an extra game. So I would think the numbers in time will give us a bit more information as to what this added Wild Card game does to the numbers. As you note, likely a slight percentage adjustment, but I'd be shocked if that percentage changes by more the 5%, whereas the number of games has increased by 50%

I'd have to go back and check history, but I don't think it's every year where the Home teams are favored in every game. There were no bad record Division winners, or Wild Card Teams with a good record that lost out to a #1 seed type of thing.

Another trend I heard was that in the Wild Card round, 90% of teams who win the game cover the spread. So statistically the spread doesn't matter over the long haul. But again this is year 2 of this format so the sample size is only 6 games.

[rubecube]

Feel like the Niners and Raiders are the two most likely underdog teams to win. Both teams match up well with their opponents.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Feel like the Niners and Raiders are the two most likely underdog teams to win. Both teams match up well with their opponents.

Handicappers are obviously much smarter than I am but I don't think Cinci deserves to be -5.5. Cinci is way overrated and won a weak division with a pretty easy schedule. The Raiders aren't necessarily a good team as they have lost to some pretty awful teams this year but I'd put this matchup at pretty much even.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Bengals already beat the Raiders pretty handily this season, and with home always being worth 3 points I don't think -5.5 is that outrageous. Besides it's likely the two scenarios in this game are a close, one score game (likely won by the Raiders) or a multi score game (likely won by the Bengals). -5.5 actually seems pretty spot on.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

Handicappers are obviously much smarter than I am but I don't think Cinci deserves to be -5.5. Cinci is way overrated and won a weak division with a pretty easy schedule. The Raiders aren't necessarily a good team as they have lost to some pretty awful teams this year but I'd put this matchup at pretty much even.

I'm not saying that the Raiders are a shoe in to win but ignore who they lost to and pay attention to whom they beat. Raiders went 8-4 in the conference which is tied for best in the AFC and had the highest strength of victory of all AFC teams in the playoffs after the Chiefs as the Raiders beat 8 teams with winning records this season. Not taking a shot at Rube but for example the Eagles didn't beat a single team with a winning record on route to making the playoffs. The Chiefs clearly present a problem for the Raiders as Bradley's cover 3 defense just doesn't work against Reid's offense but they have been competitive or beat most of the good teams on their schedule this year. The letdown losses to the Bears, Giants, and Redskins were during the turmoil periods of Gruden's emails getting leaked and Ruggs killing a girl. I don't think they are an elite team but they have enough pieces on offense and defense to present a problem for a lot of teams.

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Bengals already beat the Raiders pretty handily this season, and with home always being worth 3 points I don't think -5.5 is that outrageous. Besides it's likely the two scenarios in this game are a close, one score game (likely won by the Raiders) or a multi score game (likely won by the Bengals). -5.5 actually seems pretty spot on.

It was a 3 point game in the 4th quarter and then a couple of Raiders turnovers changed the complexity of game. They kept Burrows to his lowest output of the season under 150 yards.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I'm not saying that the Raiders are a shoe in to win but ignore who they lost to and pay attention to whom they beat. Raiders went 8-4 in the conference which is tied for best in the AFC and had the highest strength of victory of all AFC teams in the playoffs after the Chiefs as the Raiders beat 8 teams with winning records this season. Not taking a shot at Rube but for example the Eagles didn't beat a single team with a winning record on route to making the playoffs. The Chiefs clearly present a problem for the Raiders as Bradley's cover 3 defense just doesn't work against Reid's offense but they have been competitive or beat most of the good teams on their schedule this year. The letdown losses to the Bears, Giants, and Redskins were during the turmoil periods of Gruden's emails getting leaked and Ruggs killing a girl. I don't think they are an elite team but they have enough pieces on offense and defense to present a problem for a lot of teams.



It was a 3 point game in the 4th quarter and then a couple of Raiders turnovers changed the complexity of game. They kept Burrows to his lowest output of the season under 150 yards.

I absolutely agree which is why I think that Cinci being a 5.5 point favorite is pretty rich.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Ignore who the Raiders beat and pay more attention to how they won a lot of games this year. They won a pretty insane six games on the last play of the game. Grit and heart are great, but winning convincingly is far more predictable of long term performance. That's why if the game is close the Raiders have a good chance, but if they fall behind two scores or more it looks bleak for them.

[Sylvanfan]

Based on the Sagarin numbers it has the Bengals as a +5.74 favorite. So having the line at 5.5 is pretty close.

I think the Raiders could win that game, but it is not a great spot for them coming off a prime time Sunday Game and having an earlier Saturday start on the road. Both teams feature QB's who have no NFL playoff experience, but the game last week for the Raiders was close to a playoff calibre game and Carr has a lot of experience. On the flip side, Burrow is only a year younger than Patrick Mahomes and the College Title game although not a NFL playoff game is still a big game. Plus you now have a Dome team going outside to play in a colder environment. After chasing Herbert for like 70 pass plays 140 hours ago...Maxx Crosby might struggle to do that again.

If you shed the Marvin Lewis/Andy Daulton Bengals bias that might exist, this is a Bengals team that beat KC, played Green Bay and San Francisco to OT losses, kicked the ever living crap out of Pittsburgh twice, and did handle the Raiders. Outside of a loss to the Patriots they played well against good competition, so not as easy to dismiss as some past versions.

The only thing I might consider betting on is the Total. If it looks a bit breezy, than I'd lean to the under as it's a bit harder to make those down field throws for the big plays that both teams will need to run the score past this total.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Ignore who the Raiders beat and pay more attention to how they won a lot of games this year. They won a pretty insane six games on the last play of the game. Grit and heart are great, but winning convincingly is far more predictable of long term performance. That's why if the game is close the Raiders have a good chance, but if they fall behind two scores or more it looks bleak for them.

Outside of the Chiefs it's pretty bleak for most teams when they fall behind two scores. In a last minute situation there has been no better QB than Carr when it comes to driving down the field to score the winning points. Considering how close games are these days that's a powerful tool to have.

[Senator Clay Davis]

It's not a tool though, it's not something you can rely on. If the other team has the ball in the last minute you're not able to use that tool. One score games are usually the baseline for looking at who will get better/worse the next year because there is significantly more variance in one score games then in blowouts. Fumble luck, clock luck, timeout management, quality of kicker, weather, one single penalty etc...It's not to say the Raiders can't win, but the Bengals at -5.5 is not even remotely out of line. I feel like the Bills -4 is more egregious for a line, the Bills dominated that second game and only lost the first one because of wind and one long Patriots TD. Feels like that should be Bills -7.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Not taking a shot at Rube but for example the Eagles didn't beat a single team with a winning record on route to making the playoffs.

Oh I'm well aware. That said, they were 0-4 in 1-score games against teams with a winning record, which generally suggests they had some bad luck. They also played all of those teams at the beginning of the season before they changed their offense. Again, I don't think they win this weekend, but I'm hoping they at least prove they belong in the tournament.

As for Raiders/Bengals, I can see a scenario where Crosby takes over and ruins the Bengals' passing game.

[rubecube]

NFL Canada is doing a free bracket challenge for anyone who is interested.

https://superbowlchallenge.canada.nfl.com/

[Patek23]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Oh I'm well aware. That said, they were 0-4 in 1-score games against teams with a winning record, which generally suggests they had some bad luck. They also played all of those teams at the beginning of the season before they changed their offense. Again, I don't think they win this weekend, but I'm hoping they at least prove they belong in the tournament.

As for Raiders/Bengals, I can see a scenario where Crosby takes over and ruins the Bengals' passing game.

Windy and Rainy also helps the run focused Eagles for Sundays game. I've already accepted that we likely lose and really this season is already a huge success regardless. But I still think there's a lot of things lining up in the Eagles favour for this game.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Oh I'm well aware. That said, they were 0-4 in 1-score games against teams with a winning record, which generally suggests they had some bad luck. They also played all of those teams at the beginning of the season before they changed their offense. Again, I don't think they win this weekend, but I'm hoping they at least prove they belong in the tournament.

As for Raiders/Bengals, I can see a scenario where Crosby takes over and ruins the Bengals' passing game.

Same with the Raiders. I just hope that they don't embarrass themselves on the big stage. I generally want to see the best teams advance for entertainment factor but I'm pulling for the Raiders (duh) and for the Eagles as I'm over Brady, Arians, and the Bucs. Also pulling for the 49ers (IMO best bet of a visitor winning outright) even though I don't care for them because there's few things better than seeing the Cowboys fail.