Finding This Year's Reilly Smith: Buy Low Candidates

[SuperMatt18]

Think that one thing the Flames need to do this off-season is find a potential "buy low" candidate to help our offense.

We shouldn't be looking to spend too much in the way of our limited assets, so getting a potential "value" pickup will really help us out here.

A player that a team is looking at moving strictly because of a down year that is driven by an abnormal shooting percentage vs. the rest of their career.

Last Year this was Reilly Smith - a guy that was deemed so bad that Florida also gave Vegas up Marchessault just to take his contract.

Smith's stats:

15/16: 25 Goals, 50 points - shot 14.5%
16/17: 15 Goals, 22 points - shot 9.4%
17/18: 22 goals, 60 points - shot 13.6%

So the goal here is to find a guy who's numbers have dropped off YoY, and mostly because of shooting percentage. Then because of that "drop" you might be able to acquire for a cheap cost or even a swap of bad contracts.

RH Shots:

Cam Atkinson
15/16: 27 Goals, 53 points - shot 11.9%
16/17: 35 Goals, 62 points - shot 14.6%
17/18: 16 goals, 33 points - shot 8.6%

Career shooting percentage of 11.1%.

Will be 29 at the start of next year. 7 years, and $5.8M left on that contract make it a real risky acquisition due to age and term remaining.

Derek Stepan
15/16: 22 Goals, 53 points - shot 11.5%
16/17: 17 Goals, 55 points - shot 8.1%
17/18: 12 goals, 45 points - shot 6.4%

Career shooting percentage of 10.1%.

Would be 28 at the start of next year. 3 years at $6.5M after this season and the budget Coyotes may want to move on. Not a great contract, and getting older.

Note: I can't believe Derek Stepan is younger than Cam Atkinson. I could have sworn Atkinson was like 25.

LH Shots:

Max Domi:
15/16: 18 Goals, 52 points - shot 11.5%
16/17: 9 Goals, 38 points - shot 8.3%
17/18: 5 goals, 32 points - shot 3.8%

Career shooting percentage of 8.1%. (Was 10.2% coming into this year)

Age 23. RFA after this season. Honestly if I was GM this would be one of my targets. Too bad we don't have our picks or else an offer sheet would have been an interesting play here.

Brandon Saad:
15/16: 31 Goals, 53 points - shot 13.3%
16/17: 24 Goals, 53 points - shot 11.4%
17/18: 16 goals, 31 points - shot 7.7%

Career shooting percentage of 11.1%.

25 years old. 3 years at $6M left - with Chicago needing a shake up this could be an option but will probably cost more to acquire than the others on this list.

Jeff Skinner:
15/16: 28 Goals, 51 points - shot 10.9%
16/17: 37 Goals, 63 points - shot 13.2%
17/18: 20 goals, 41 points - shot 8.1%

Career shooting percentage of 10.6%.

Turns 26 in May. 1 year at $5.75M remaining - could be a offseason trade candidate as they look to make changes in Carolina. Really like this player.

Boone Jenner:
15/16: 30 Goals, 49 points - shot 13.3%
16/17: 18 Goals, 34 points - shot 8.5%
17/18: 10 goals, 26 points - shot 6.4%

Career shooting percentage of 10.3%.

Turns 25 in June. RFA after this season and Columbus is somewhat tight on cap space. Also brings some grit and plays with a bit of an edge.

Any thoughts?

Who would you like the Flames to target this offseason?

[Bingo]

I thought all these candidates already played for the Flames ...

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I thought all these candidates already played for the Flames ...

It's funny...there were a couple guys that fit the bill. Backlund, Frolik, Versteeg, Hamonic, Brodie, and Bennett would all fit the criteria here.

All shooting 2%+ below their career norm.

Guys the Flames probably shouldn't sell low on.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

It's funny...there were a couple guys that fit the bill. Backlund, Frolik, Versteeg, Hamonic, Brodie, and Bennett would all fit the criteria here.

All shooting 2%+ below their career norm.

Guys the Flames probably shouldn't sell low on.

Agreed ...

That's why this is going to be an interesting off season for the Flames. I'm not one to lump in on luck alone, but there's certainly an element of it at play with how this season has gone.

[Caged Great]

That's why I am kind of hoping that the Flames don't do much other than get a 2nd line RW, preferably during UFA instead of shaking things up too much.

With how badly this team has been coached, I think that there isn't much needed for the Flames to have a bounce back year. I'd like them to get another depth player or two also, but those guys are available for cheap during UFA.

[bubbsy]

Hmmm.... When grading treliving, one fault that is likely to be stated is the fact he hasn't augmented the roster with any real skill for the top 6,particularly at rw. In fact, the only real moves made at forward have been lower name guys Raymond, Brouwer, Versteeg, and the aging jagr.

I think, right or wrong, treliving will try to go big game hunting this offseason when it comes to scoring at the forward position.

[Flash Walken]

move the team to houston and wait for expansion?

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Caged Great

That's why I am kind of hoping that the Flames don't do much other than get a 2nd line RW, preferably during UFA instead of shaking things up too much.

With how badly this team has been coached, I think that there isn't much needed for the Flames to have a bounce back year. I'd like them to get another depth player or two also, but those guys are available for cheap during UFA.

My biggest concern is this team goes scorched earth rebuild and makes too big of changes to what is a season of some combination of bad luck and a coach that didn't inspire confidence.

Get a proven coach, add a top 6 forward, get younger/cheaper in the bottom 6 and bottom pairing.

Do those 3-4 things and this team will be on the right track again next year.

[bigrangy]

Skinner would be the perfect add

[Fan in Exile]

Skinner would be great and I still think Saad might be worth a gamble. I'd look at seeing what it would take to pry Nylander out of Toronto too. It will be hard for the Leafs to keep everyone and they could use help on D.

[yourbestfriend]

Someone mentioned it on hf, but Sprong would be an excellent addition. Would most likely cost someone like Andersson or Kylington+ though

[Mass_nerder]

Originally Posted by Fan in Exile

Skinner would be great and I still think Saad might be worth a gamble. I'd look at seeing what it would take to pry Nylander out of Toronto too. It will be hard for the Leafs to keep everyone and they could use help on D.

I can't see a deal that Calgary could make for Nylander, that wouldn't subtract a significant piece from our current roster.

[Fan in Exile]

Originally Posted by Mass_nerder

I can't see a deal that Calgary could make for Nylander, that wouldn't subtract a significant piece from our current roster.

I don't know who you're thinking are significant pieces but we need to reconsider the roster, especially the D corps. Too much salary for an average defensive team and we can't waste all the talent in the pipeline that are still on ELCs.

Not a buy low situation anyway. Maybe we're more likely to get our cake and eat too with someone like Skinner or Saad. I think we need to move D though so I think Chicago is a better trading partner.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

My biggest concern is this team goes scorched earth rebuild and makes too big of changes to what is a season of some combination of bad luck and a coach that didn't inspire confidence.

Get a proven coach, add a top 6 forward, get younger/cheaper in the bottom 6 and bottom pairing.

Do those 3 things and this team will be on the right track again next year.

I am 100% certain this team is not going scorched earth. This organization has never wanted to do that, even when it made sense.

[jlh2640]

Max Domi for sure

[Ashasx]

I feel like Carolina is about to make a lot of mistakes this off-season so I'd like to trade with them.

The people in charge in Arizona and Columbus probably know their players are underperforming and won't want to sell low.

[Travis Munroe]

Isn't Skinner one hit away from retiring due to concussions?

I say no to a gamble on another Brouwer.... guys start to regress more times than returning to their peak performance. I would ask if the down year(s) a rare occurrence or was the high year(s) the rare occurrence?

[dustygoon]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Agreed ...



That's why this is going to be an interesting off season for the Flames. I'm not one to lump in on luck alone, but there's certainly an element of it at play with how this season has gone.

I think some is bad luck, but some is too much emphasis on possession stats. Teams with lots of wins are correlated with good shot metrics. But I’m not sure you back solve for wins by focusing on shot metrics so much (causation). Not all shot attempts are equal. I know they track scoring chances but there is something wrong with this team’s structure. Missed nets means they maybe are forcing a shot?

[Mass_nerder]

Originally Posted by Fan in Exile

I don't know who you're thinking are significant pieces but we need to reconsider the roster, especially the D corps. Too much salary for an average defensive team and we can't waste all the talent in the pipeline that are still on ELCs.

Not a buy low situation anyway. Maybe we're more likely to get our cake and eat too with someone like Skinner or Saad. I think we need to move D though so I think Chicago is a better trading partner.

I'm saying I don't think Brodie gets you Nylander, and losing Hamilton would be detrimental to the team's future (in my opinion of course).

[N-E-B]

Originally Posted by Realtor 1

Isn't Skinner one hit away from retiring due to concussions?

I say no to a gamble on another Brouwer.... guys start to regress more times than returning to their peak performance. I would ask if the down year(s) a rare occurrence or was the high year(s) the rare occurrence?

He's played 70+ games in each of the past 5 seasons. He had some problems early on so maybe there's a bit of concern there, but I don't think it's as bad as it might seem.

I'd love to add Skinner if possible. Him or Hoffman would be at the top of my list.