Has Calgary seen its best days?

[Muta]

Originally Posted by Flamenspiel

Yeh, that's just government spending, ie Calgary's paying for it.

University of Calgary students are paying for University of Alberta projects?

Also, just because public sector / institutional projects are getting designed and built doesn't make them unnecessary. One of these projects is the new Metro Line LRT going through northwest Edmonton, which is sorely needed. Another one is the Lister Complex Redevelopment at the U of A, which, if you've seen that dilapidated complex, is sorely needed as well. Are these not necessary?

[Hack&Lube]

Originally Posted by blankall

A major issue is that the cost of capital and labour is so high, that's it's difficult to start a new business. In the 70s and into the 80s, you could afford to not only rent large spaces, but potentially buy them. Combine the increase in capital costs with ever increasing labour costs, and you've got a very difficult environment for businesses. Many of the start ups you're talking about are actually funded by kids parents. They get their parents to provide them with an initial loan in the $200k+ category, which they supplement with a small business loan. The "entrepreneurs" spend all of that money fixing up a retail/restaurant, providing the appearance of an actual business and then go under in about 2 years. The number of genuinely successful entrepreneurs is extremely limited by the economic environment in Canada.

I have been involved through enough of these through the years to know this is very true. Many of those fad things in Calgary are actually going to be insolvent in a few years and just riding out their leases (rolled ice cream, escape rooms, VR, specialty recreation). The lease rates and cost of labor are still too high and the disposable income and free time are too low. I know several entrepreneurs who defaulted on bank loans (even with solid background and solid business plans) within a few months in the past 2 years. Just couldn't afford the labor and get enough cash flow in the current economy.

Cannibis retail will be the next fad where most vulnerable Albertans will fail and the big companies will come in and consolidate.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

Not only great hair but Trudeau's old pot smoking days sure helped this along.

Cheap land and cheap power are the main drivers of pot growing, Quebec and Manitoba with access to hydro should have something of a leg up

[The Yen Man]

I can't really say I agree with the OP. Calgary's not all nutso when O&G wages were out of whack, but I can't say it's that bad currently either. Maybe I'm being naive because i don't work in O&G and never have, but seems like it's been slowly and steadily picking up and on normal, overall growth. Restaurants and pubs, although not nutso like it was during the boom, still seem busy and mostly full for the most part.

[para transit fellow]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

I'm dubious about the medicinal uses of pot. Advocates make it sound like some kind of wonder-plant, with vast untapped medicinal uses. The reason they've gotten away with it is because there haven't been a lot of serious studies to debunk their claims.

My bet is once we see more serious, long-term clinical trials of pot, we'll realize it isn't much more than a mildly effective pain killer with some substantial negative side effects.

Once upon a time, Guinness beer was available by prescription for Vitamin B deficiencies....

Now we just drink it the taste and alchol effects.....

[GGG]

Oil and Gas will be a stable industry for the next 25 years at today's employment levels at a minimum. The cost of replacement Barrels is relatively low relative to the rest of the world and specially shale. So $40-$60 oil is fine to support today's level of production and employment while providing modest ROI on sustaining production.

So this is what Calgary's base is for the next 25 years barring magical faries causing a reduction in oil demand faster than the loss of production. And even in that scenario sustaining production is still cheaper than half the oil out there. New production we are the marginal barrels and have long ROI but with existing sunk capital the assets are attractive though somewhat debt laden.

So will Calgary without economic diversification crumble, absolutely not.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by GGG

Oil and Gas will be a stable industry for the next 25 years at today's employment levels at a minimum. The cost of replacement Barrels is relatively low relative to the rest of the world and specially shale. So $40-$60 oil is fine to support today's level of production and employment while providing modest ROI on sustaining production.

So this is what Calgary's base is for the next 25 years barring magical faries causing a reduction in oil demand faster than the loss of production. And even in that scenario sustaining production is still cheaper than half the oil out there. New production we are the marginal barrels and have long ROI but with existing sunk capital the assets are attractive though somewhat debt laden.

So will Calgary without economic diversification crumble, absolutely not.

Sure, but that doesn't imply that things will be better than they were in the relatively recent past. It does mean they probably won't get any worse than they are now, but that is completely compatible with the city's best days being behind itm

[GGG]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Sure, but that doesn't imply that things will be better than they were in the relatively recent past. It does mean they probably won't get any worse than they are now, but that is completely compatible with the city's best days being behind itm

That assumes that when people had more money than sense and servers were entitled and terrible, food was over priced and under quality and you couldn't hire a competent employee was the city's best days.

I don't think the city today is worse than in the middle of the boom times right now and many things are better. If you continued to be employed during the boom I think things are better today. Those who lost their jobs wouldn't agree but I don't buy this notion of a Calgary in decay. I think the city is better than 5 years ago right now

[Bend it like Bourgeois]

Who knows, but I would be surprised if my kids spend their adult lives here. Not that the city will shrink or anything, but there’s little to bring jobs and investment in, and still reasons why they’re leaving. Opportunity will mostly be elsewhere.

[PepsiFree]

We’re basically Detroit. Close up shop everyone. It was a good 123 years but it’s all downhill until the Earth mercifully crashes into the Sun.

[Mr.Coffee]

even just today in the news I was reading they were talking about EIA Dec 2017 estimates of a balanced 2018 supply / demand global market but FFWD to present, and EIA is saying now we're 500Mb/d in a supply deficit for 2018.

Venezuela production falling apart.

Trump may not support the Iran deal in May. Tensions in the Middle East high, global economic growth strong, and there's a lot of indicators pointing towards an ascent to $70/bbl crude.

Investor confidence is low in Canada, but it'll turn around. Eventually the BC pipeline saga will come around. Will it be a boom? Will it be as economically wild as it has been before? I'm not sure, I'm not even sure that's a good thing. Calgary's just right when it's not a perpetually growing / populous rat race, that's part of the charm for a guy like me.

But oil and gas? It's actually looking favourable right now.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Bend it like Bourgeois

Who knows, but I would be surprised if my kids spend their adult lives here. Not that the city will shrink or anything, but there’s little to bring jobs and investment in, and still reasons why they’re leaving. Opportunity will mostly be elsewhere.

I don't want to spend the rest of my adult life here. I have been trying to find adequate work abroad that will pay enough to support my family. Hopefully it happens soon.

[Bownesian]

Originally Posted by Muta

I'm no expert in financial stuff, but do you have a source that says these are deficit-based expenditures? Not saying you're wrong, but Edmonton is currently in a more bullish economic climate then Calgary, so I'd like to see your stats on this claim instead of anecdotal conclusions. The City of Edmonton, University of Alberta, etc. are well-run organizations.

What I meant is that most of what you're talking about is government (taxpayer) funded, and that our province is in a net deficit. That makes the source of that activity unstable and susceptible to future cuts or changes in priorities.

I wonder if Edmonton is over-building like Calgary did.

[Weitz]

I’d sure like housing prices to take a dramatic hit. I know a lot won’t like that but I sure would.

[ma-skis.com]

Originally Posted by nik-

In five years the streets and wastelands of Calgary will be swarming with roving gangs of bandits, killing people for their gasoline, stealing women from other groups and feral children hitting people in the faces with boomerangs.

I bet their base of operations would be westbrook mall.

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by troutman

New Mercer World rankings, quality of living:

https://mobilityexchange.mercer.com/...456/index.html

Calgary #33.

what were they ranked say before the crash and NDP government?

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by GGG

That assumes that when people had more money than sense and servers were entitled and terrible, food was over priced and under quality and you couldn't hire a competent employee was the city's best days.

I don't think the city today is worse than in the middle of the boom times right now and many things are better. If you continued to be employed during the boom I think things are better today. Those who lost their jobs wouldn't agree but I don't buy this notion of a Calgary in decay. I think the city is better than 5 years ago right now

You're not wrong, even as someone who is still an unemployed o&g worker. I had read the OP as an economic question, with all the talk of a boom and the Alberta Advantage. Barring a step change in oil and gas prices, probably the Calgary economy has had its best days.

[rotten42]

Originally Posted by Jacks

Things were a lot worse in the late 80's and early 90's and we recovered.

Exactly. Calgary will bounce back. Not exactly the same as the last time but it will bounce back. I'm already seeing at work our clients are much more diverse than they were in the past.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

You're not wrong, even as someone who is still an unemployed o&g worker. I had read the OP as an economic question, with all the talk of a boom and the Alberta Advantage. Barring a step change in oil and gas prices, probably the Calgary economy has had its best days.

Yeah I agree with that. We probably hit peak average income and peak foreign investment relative to some adjusted baseline.

I guess I don't equate that with peak city.

[dobbles]

Genuine question here: I have noticed several people talk about there being no future in Calgary and wanting to leave, or that their kids won't stay, etc... What do you guys see as the better alternative?

Is it something personal like the desire to live in less dense place and have that more relaxing lifestyle? Or is it more structural and there are other comparable cities that are doing things better than Calgary that you think would serve you better long term?

Just to give my perspective for asking, I grew up in a dieing Midwestern town of 35,000 people. I have lived in a few medium sized communities (100k-200k) and now live in Tulsa which has a metro of around a million. So having started small and moved to cities with increasingly diverse opportunities and experiences, and also coming from a small factory town that really does seem to have seen the best times pass it by, this thread has been a great read for me.