Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Groot

I have to slightly disagree with your assessment so I went and dug up some more recent links. Here's the latest Forbes article after the Covid shortened 2020-2021 season.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeoza...h=226a122570dd

That was actually for the Covid-shortened 2019-2020 season. The 2020-2021 season had not yet started when that article was published.

I ran those figures into a spreadsheet, and here's what I found:

In 2019-20, the NHL's 31 clubs made an aggregate operating profit of $250.3 million on revenues estimated at $4.4 billion. The league continued to be heavily gate-driven and therefore extremely vulnerable to downturns in attendance:

Originally Posted by Forbes

Nowadays, jam-packed arenas are a pipe dream, as is the cash from tickets, suites, concessions, sponsorships and parking, which account for more than 70% of total revenue in a typical season.

The top three teams I mentioned – Toronto, Montreal, and the Rangers – which, in the year I got my figures from, earned 50 percent of the league's total profits among them – got 69.3 percent of the profits in 2019-20. As the article points out, if you exclude the five most valuable franchises, the rest of the league operated at a $50 million loss.

In fact, the Original Six franchises plus L.A. – the seven most profitable teams – earned $378.4 million among them. The remaining 24 teams lost an aggregate of $128.1 million.

Fifteen teams lost money, including nine that lost $10 million or more. These figures are after revenue-sharing. For instance, Florida lost $28.9 million, but received a revenue-sharing cheque of $16 million. Without that help, they would have lost about $45 million.

I deliberately did not cite the figures for that year because of the shortened season. The figures for the last year of fully open arenas and normal attendance are bad enough. The figures for 2020-21, when most arenas were closed until the playoffs and a third of the schedule was cancelled, will be utterly disastrous.

The NHL was counting on a rapid bounce back in attendance after the COVID shutdown, like the rapid bounce back from the '04-05 lockout. That has not happened, with attendance figures lower than at any time in the 20 years prior to the pandemic.

Originally Posted by Groot

And then here's a list done by an actual analyst about projected revenues per team until 2025.

https://bookies.com/nhl/picks/reveal...-nhl-rich-list

Did you see the ‘analyst's’ methodology? They used the Excel forecast function – they admit as much in the article. In other words, a straight extrapolation of the pre-COVID trends, with no actual analysis at all.

The business is not in a healthy condition.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Sutter coming on board and getting the team winning was a huge boost to the chances of re-signing both these guys IMO.

I know it's been beaten to death around here, but I think adding Eichel would have been another huge boost as well. Such a shame really.

After listening to Mike on the Fan the other day, I'm more optimistic than ever about this team's prospect pool. Giving 2 or 3 of these guys away in addition to roster players, in exchange for a player coming off a very serious injury, would have been a huge risk for this team to take on. Besides, there's no guarantee that the Flames were even in a position to land Eichel, especially if Buffalo specifically wanted the pieces that Vegas had to offer.

[Yoho]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1464839697637601293

Nice to hear.

[Bingo]

Yeah he was pretty adamant about the city and wanting to stay.

Never know when a player just says stuff, but it was certainly well beyond the cliched answer.

[1_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Yeah he was pretty adamant about the city and wanting to stay.

Never know when a player just says stuff, but it was certainly well beyond the cliched answer.

His comments are very encouraging. Felt like he was being sincere and honest. Makes me think there is a good chance we can re-sign him long term but it's gonna be pricey.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by 1_Flames_Fan

His comments are very encouraging. Felt like he was being sincere and honest. Makes me think there is a good chance we can re-sign him long term but it's gonna be pricey.

I think he and Johnny will be worth it. This season, they’ve basically been on the ice for 20 even strength goals and like 2 goals against, and those 2 goals weren’t even on them. One was a line change and one was a giveaway by their goaltender. You can win a lot of games with a line like 13-28-19. At the very least, Lindholm’s ultra cheap deal helps cushion the blow a bit.

[Strange Brew]

So the Penguins just sold for very nearly $1 billion. When is this dire financial crisis facing the league ever going to end?

[Knightslayer]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

So the Penguins just sold for very nearly $1 billion. When is this dire financial crisis facing the league ever going to end?

Honestly the rich got richer so really no surprise teams will likely have higher valuation.

Some companies have too much money and need to spend it somewhere.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by Knightslayer

Honestly the rich got richer so really no surprise teams will likely have higher valuation.

Some companies have too much money and need to spend it somewhere.

Quite the investment for Lemieux, for the $32 million he was owed thru the bankruptcy he cashed in for about $360 million and still retains some ownership.

The rich indeed get richer.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

Quite the investment for Lemieux, for the $32 million he was owed thru the bankruptcy he cashed in for about $360 million and still retains some ownership.

The rich indeed get richer.

Good for him. I wonder how many people thought that was a good investment at the time.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Good for him. I wonder how many people thought that was a good investment at the time.

He didn't have much of a choice at the time - ownership stake or nothing.

[Canada 02]

just one guy's opinion, but the defensive numbers warrant some recognition

https://twitter.com/user/status/1466813235127111685

[Britflamesfan]

Very interested to hear how people think the flames can pay up for all the players who need a new contract next year/

Chucky at 9M (for 1 year then what)
JG at 10M? (If we are lucky)
Mangi at 6M (if we are lucky)
Shilly at 3M or maybe 4/5M)

How do we keep them all or who do we have to let go?

[Eb0la11]

Originally Posted by Britflamesfan

Very interested to hear how people think the flames can pay up for all the players who need a new contract next year/

Chucky at 9M (for 1 year then what)
JG at 10M? (If we are lucky)
Mangi at 6M (if we are lucky)
Shilly at 3M or maybe 4/5M)

How do we keep them all or who do we have to let go?

The flames highest paid player in Tkachuk is something like 62nd highest paid player in the league. Somehow other teams are making it work.

[jg13]

If we can move Monahan for picks / prospects this summer I expect we can sign Kylington (4.5M), Mangiapane (5M), Tkachuk and Gaudreau matching (9.25M)

Current Free Space: 1.55M
Walk: Zadorov, Pitlick, Richardson, Stone, Ritchie, Gudbranson (9.9M)
Buyouts coming off: Brouwer (1.5M)
Trade: Monahan (6.375M)

Total cap to do the below: 19.325M

Promoted: Valimaki, Mackey, Pelletier, Ruzicka ~3M
Gaudreau/Kylington/Mangiapane/Tkachuk Raises: 11.075M
Potential to Keep: Lewis (750K)

Cap space remaining after all the above happens: 5.25M to sign one roster player.


Roster 2022/23:

Gaudreau - Lindholm - Tkachuk
Mangiapane - Backlund - UFA 5.25M
Pelletier - Dube - Coleman
Lucic - Lewis - Ruzicka

Hanifin Andersson
Tanev Kylington
Valimaki Mackey

Markstrom
Vladar

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by jg13

If we can move Monahan for picks / prospects this summer I expect we can sign Kylington (4.5M), Mangiapane (5M), Tkachuk and Gaudreau matching (9.25M)

Current Free Space: 1.55M
Walk: Zadorov, Pitlick, Richardson, Stone, Ritchie, Gudbranson (9.9M)
Buyouts coming off: Brouwer (1.5M)
Trade: Monahan (6.375M)

Total cap to do the below: 19.325M

Promoted: Valimaki, Mackey, Pelletier, Ruzicka ~3M
Gaudreau/Kylington/Mangiapane/Tkachuk Raises: 11.075M
Potential to Keep: Lewis (750K)

Cap space remaining after all the above happens: 5.25M to sign one roster player.


Roster 2022/23:

Gaudreau - Lindholm - Tkachuk
Mangiapane - Backlund - UFA 5.25M
Pelletier - Dube - Coleman
Lucic - Lewis - Ruzicka

Hanifin Andersson
Tanev Kylington
Valimaki Mackey

Markstrom
Vladar

That’s an uber soft D corp. thinking they would at least try to keep gudbranson

[Monahammer]

We need to stop talking about buyouts or shipping out x player for pennies. It is only bad for morale. The boys are winning and making a push. No need to plan beyond playoffs right now.

For all we know Lucic will decide to retire post cup run. Perhaps contracts are more team favorable because the group decides they want to win together.

Lots of variables in play. No need to constantly be talking about how we need to escape a 6 mill contract for a player who's still contributing to the teams winning culture.

[PugnaciousIntern]

Originally Posted by Eb0la11

The flames highest paid player in Tkachuk is something like 62nd highest paid player in the league. Somehow other teams are making it work.

Well the flames have a very large group of middle-of-the-pack contracts in the 4-6mil range.

On forward - Monahan, Backlund, Lucic, Coleman. All players that I am glad are on our team, but are some combination of underperforming, overpaid, or somewhat overpaid for their current contributions. Lindholm would be the antithesis - in this range but underpaid.

On D, Zadorov, Hanifin, Andersson, Tanev. Nobody making crazy money, but a lot of decent sized contracts.

I don’t think any Flames fans are regretting the Markstrom contract right now, but it’s another one in this range.

Contrast it to the salary structures of most teams with players getting top-10 salary, and the wealth is much more concentrated on the top lines. They don’t have 10 players around 4-6 mil. Other teams make it work by paying their bottom 6 and bottom pairings peanuts, and finding a few young gems that can play top minutes before they get their payday. Mangiapane and Kylington are the only two players who are truly getting peanuts for playing top minutes, but they are both due for a raise this summer. That leaves Lindholm as the only player inked for next year who is playing significantly beyond his contract.

I think this plan suits the Flames well right now, as our top players are excellent but still need a strong supporting cast. It allows Sutter to roll lines and in particular it means we often have genuine NHL skill on the ice at all times, which allows Sutter to employ this relentless wave of checking. I don’t think many other teams have B-level skill throughout their lineup that could sustain the type of game that Sutter wants, which I believe is the main reason for our success so far. The coaching plan reflects the horses in the stable. But there’s a reason the Flames are in a pinch this summer and other teams aren’t.

[Jason14h]

Lucic will be the 1st player moved if salary structure requires a 'dump'

1 million in real $ next year after the bonus is paid.

[jg13]

He has a NTC