2018/2019 Trade Speculation and Rumors

[bluck]

Originally Posted by kukkudo

I think we see the Oilers overpay big time.

Draisaitl, Puljujarvi, Nurse (RFA), 2019 1st.

Please let this be. Giving up all these assets for a 29-30 year old plus a max deal for a player who already had major surgery on one foot... yes please. Even Chia isn’t that stupid though

[Hackey]

If i was him I wouldnt want to sign in Canada either. Vancouver decent city but not very good. Edmonton is Edmonton, plus no guarantee of good. Calgary likely isnt seen by a Swede as a great city plus team didnt make playoffs. Montreal is terrible. Toronto maybe but cant afford him. I just dont see any enticing places for him in Canada which I dont take personally. If you can make millions anywhere there are some much better options both career and lifestyle wise and you cant fault someonefor that.

[Poe969]

Seriously, who would want draisaitl with that contract? The only way any team touches that is if a min 35% is retained by the oil.

Can't the oilers just get Karlsson for "kailer hockey" 1 for 1?

[Sutter_in_law]

Originally Posted by bluck

Please let this be. Giving up all these assets for a 29-30 year old plus a max deal for a player who already had major surgery on one foot... yes please. Even Chia isn’t that stupid though

Chia just told me to hold his beer and ran across the street to a payphone - stay tuned!

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by dustygoon

If teams are only getting one year of him, then i think this is too much. Ottawa would have traded him by now if they could get something in this area.

Sam Girard and Colorado 1st

That is not getting it done. If the deal is with the Av's that 1st will be the Senators, not Colorado's. Pretty sure any team acquiring him won't be doing so unless they know they can get him extended. So what is an extended franchise D man worth? Certainly more than a mid to late 1st and Sam Girard.

[DomeFoam]

Draisaitl is what, a 70 - 80 pt player the last two seasons? Those guys get 8.5M now. Not sure whats so overpaid about his contract, especially when he's doing it on the oilers.

At 22 years old, Draisaitl is pretty well as untouchable as it gets on that roster. Only a pretty minor secondary asset would come back for 28 year old Karlsson who's only going to decline as he enters whatever lucrative contract he signs. His days in his prime are numbered.

[wretched34]

Originally Posted by DomeFoam

Draisaitl is what, a 70 - 80 pt player the last two seasons? Those guys get 8.5M now. Not sure whats so overpaid about his contract, especially when he's doing it on the oilers.

At 22 years old, Draisaitl is pretty well as untouchable as it gets on that roster. Only a pretty minor secondary asset would come back for 28 year old Karlsson who's only going to decline as he enters whatever lucrative contract he signs. His days in his prime are numbered.

Problem is, Draisaitl is only a 70-80 point player when he's playing with McDavid. When he's not playing with McDavid, he's a 50ish point player.
No one is paying 50 point players $8.5M, especially when they are supposed to be top line centers, but play 60% of their time on the wing.
Draisaitl is not that 70-80 point guy on any other team.

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by DomeFoam

Draisaitl is what, a 70 - 80 pt player the last two seasons? Those guys get 8.5M now. Not sure whats so overpaid about his contract, especially when he's doing it on the oilers.

At 22 years old, Draisaitl is pretty well as untouchable as it gets on that roster. Only a pretty minor secondary asset would come back for 28 year old Karlsson who's only going to decline as he enters whatever lucrative contract he signs. His days in his prime are numbered.

They get that now because Chia overpaid. Draisatl isn't getting the going rate, he set it when Chia panicked.

[dustygoon]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

That is not getting it done. If the deal is with the Av's that 1st will be the Senators, not Colorado's. Pretty sure any team acquiring him won't be doing so unless they know they can get him extended. So what is an extended franchise D man worth? Certainly more than a mid to late 1st and Sam Girard.

What a waste of typing. No kidding. If he IS extended, then ottawa first, makar, etc are reasonable. The point was if not extended, that looks to be too much for a year. You think people are idiots in here?

[ComixZone]

Colorado should have no interest in Karlsson at the expense of their young d-men or Ottawa’s 1st.

The Avs have a golden ticket. The Sens are a tire fire on and off the ice. Watch it burn, and then hit the jackpot.

I just see no reason for them to pursue Karlsson and his soon to be signed $88 million dollar contract.

Sakic played the long game in dealing Duchene, and getting the return he did was genius. No reason to go out and blow it on Karlsson. Keep building from within.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

That is not getting it done. If the deal is with the Av's that 1st will be the Senators, not Colorado's. Pretty sure any team acquiring him won't be doing so unless they know they can get him extended. So what is an extended franchise D man worth? Certainly more than a mid to late 1st and Sam Girard.

If no team will trade for Karlsson unless he is extended, he might not get traded. Karlsson was well chose not to sign an extension with anyone. Which puts his value of a later first round pick and some non-elite prospect(s) at the trade deadline. Maybe a a bit more than that if he's playing elite at the time.

But no team should be prepared to give up a ton of premium value for the opportunity of giving him a $88M contract. That only makes sense if you get him as a UFA.

Premium players close to 30 on the verge of UFA don't have as much value as their talent suggest. Not in a cap world when 1st round picks and elite prospects are the currency of the day.

[Two Fivenagame]

Maybe BT is done with collecting 2013 first rounders and has moved onto Swedes?

Backlund
Lindholm
Just signed Loob
Maybe Andersson and Killington make the show one day?

Hanafin sounds kinda Swedish.....

Time to add EK!

[bax]

Originally Posted by wretched34

Would you trade Karlsson straight up for RNH?
Because RNH has shown too be a better all around Center in his career than Draisaitl, and he's on a better contract.
Draisaitl hasn't proven to be an elite top line center, just because he's paid like one, doesn't make him one.
Away from McDavid, he's shown to be a average top 2 center, capable of 50ish points, while being half decent defensively. RNH has also shown to be a 50 point center while being far better in his 2 way game.
So ya, Edmonton has to sweeten the pot for Ottawa to take on 7 years of overpaid Draisaitl if they are giving up the far superior player, and sending out less money.

I can't think of too many teams that would give up an elite defenseman for an overpaid top 6C, without a serious add.

Don't get me wrong, I despise the Oilers as much as anybody, but I won't let rose colored glasses prevent me from accurately judging players. If you think RNH is more valuable than Draisaitl then I just think you are flat out wrong.

25 year old center
career high of 56 points 4 seasons ago
6"00 191 pounds
Not bad defensively, but prone to being pushed off the puck and out muscled down low

22 year old center
career high of 77 points 2 seasons ago
6'02 215 pounds
Not the best skater, but big body that can protect the puck and not get pushed around

Which player looks more valuable here? And I understand the McDavid inflation, but even taking that into consideration there is no way Draisaitl is less valuable than RNH.

If Ottawa could secure a core piece like Draisaitl locked up long term for Karlsson (a soon to be UFA) that would be a massive win. When was the last time a trade like that happened? Unfortunately for Ottawa they are most likely looking at getting a mediocre roster player, some high picks, and some strong prospects. It's just the nature of trading a soon to be UFA.

Draisaitl, although less productive without McDavid still put up 2.27 P/60 at 5 on 5. I don't know who he was playing with, but if it wasn't McDavid I can't imagine his line mates were very good. That is roughly 48 even strength points. Over the last two seasons he has averaged 21 points on the power play per season so add that to his even strength total and we are looking at 69 points.

(credit to JoeThorntonsRooster from HF on the stats)

69 points isn't "elite" but it's still very good production. So going around calling him a 50 point center really isn't accurate at all.

Look, I hope the Oilers fall apart like they do every year, but I can clearly see that Draisaitl and his contract are not what is wrong with that team. It's their poorly constructed defense, their lack of forward depth, their slow and ineffective bottom rotation forwards, and terrible special teams.

Ottawa would love to get a player like Draisaitl in a Karlsson deal and he is quite clearly more valuable than RNH.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by dustygoon

What a waste of typing. No kidding. If he IS extended, then ottawa first, makar, etc are reasonable. The point was if not extended, that looks to be too much for a year. You think people are idiots in here?

Wow, sorry if I offended. I simply assumed no team is trading for Karlsson without believing they can extend him after.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

If no team will trade for Karlsson unless he is extended, he might not get traded. Karlsson was well chose not to sign an extension with anyone. Which puts his value of a later first round pick and some non-elite prospect(s) at the trade deadline. Maybe a a bit more than that if he's playing elite at the time.

But no team should be prepared to give up a ton of premium value for the opportunity of giving him a $88M contract. That only makes sense if you get him as a UFA.

Premium players close to 30 on the verge of UFA don't have as much value as their talent suggest. Not in a cap world when 1st round picks and elite prospects are the currency of the day.

I have always been under the assumption the team that trades for him will have permission from the Sens to talk extension with Karlsson's camp before the trade is made. Why would the Senators not do this to maximize their return?

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

I have always been under the assumption the team that trades for him will have permission from the Sens to talk extension with Karlsson's camp before the trade is made. Why would the Senators not do this to maximize their return?

I think you are correct that the Sens will do that.

But who says that Karlsson will sign with anyone? There are lots of players who want to test UFA once they get he chance. It's not like he'll have any idea what it's like to play in that particular city. He just won't have the chance of choosing from a number of opportunities that a UFA has.

Most of the trade proposals I have seen are predicated upon "assuming he signs a reasonable deal". Karlsson is not likely signing any deal that will be characterized as "reasonable". Players who are close to UFA virtually never do.

[Stanley]

I'll be surprised if Karlsson doesn't end up in our division.
Vegas/Sharks/Ducks seem like likely destinations.
I'd much prefer Dallas tho!

[CaptainCrunch]

The only way that he agrees to a contract is if its max dollars, max term and a team that he wants to play for.

[Toonage]

Or if his good buddy Victor Hedman plays there.

[Captaincanada80]

Way I see EK sweepstakes right now:

30% Dallas
25% Vegas
10% Colorado
10% Tampa Bay
5% Buffalo
5% New Jersey
5% Edmonton
5% Vancouver
5% Other