A little validation at least.

[Insane_Flame]

http://www.hockeybuzz.com/boards/thr...323&forum_id=1"
"The stat that, over time, correlates most strongly with winning is Corsi. Here are the rankings for the following teams (via naturalstattrick,com)

Carolina 2nd
Chicago 3rd
Calgary 4th
Edmonton 5th
Pittsburgh 6th
And all five teams happen to be in the bottom half of the league in 5v5 shooting percentage. And if you look at their rosters, they are all among the best on paper in the NHL. Between them, you've got what, five of the best seven or eight players in the NHL"

[Erick Estrada]

What is being validated here?

[Toonage]

Mediocrity by the looks of it.

[GioforPM]

Nothing, really, especially given the statement that those teams' rosters are uniformly among the best. Calgary and Pittsburgh have decent depth. However, Edmonton has none and Chicago has a top heavy and fading roster.

[Insane_Flame]

That we have been playing better than our record shows. That things can turn around.
Who pissed in your cornflakes this morning?

[killer_carlson]

A big group hug by analytics fanatics.

[FlamesAddiction]

I wonder if some teams buy into the Corsi thing too much though. A good team will naturally have a good Corsi rating as their systems and skill level will produce more shots and scoring chances.

If a poor or mediocre team is trying to increase their Corsi by simply taking more shots without the skill or system in place to capitalize, then the Corsi just become a mirage and even a hindrance as it puts the carriage before the horse.

Corsi should be the result, not the goal. This is why I feel the focus on analytics is missing the point.

[kyuss275]

While I don't care about Corsi it does back up what i see on the ice. I have felt for the most part durring the losing streak that the flames for the most part played well enough to win a lot of those games. Now what Corsi does not show is the fragile sttate the flames became with the lead in 3rd periods. THat part is what concerns me.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Nothing, really, especially given the statement that those teams' rosters are uniformly among the best. Calgary and Pittsburgh have decent depth. However, Edmonton has none and Chicago has a top heavy and fading roster.

Carolina is a year or two behind the Flames in their rebuild as well and I don't think anyone expected big things from them this season. Penguins depth on defense has been poor for a while now and it's caught up to them as the goaltending is no longer bailing them out. Also they have played a lot of hockey over the past few years and that catches up with teams.

[Insane_Flame]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I wonder if some teams buy into the Corsi thing too much though. A good team will naturally have a good Corsi rating as their systems and skill level will produce more shots and scoring chances.

If a poor or mediocre team is trying to increase their Corsi by simply taking more shots without the skill or system in place to capitalize, then the Corsi just become a mirage and even a hindrance as it puts the carriage before the horse.

I don't think that is the case with Calgary. We have seen this team able to dominate. I am not saying it is all luck but I believe it certainly plays a role this year. Look at the Oilers last year, is that a better team than the Flames have this year? I would say no. I think our biggest problem is our compete level a lot of night, but that can stem from frustration in not getting many bounces. If this team can somehow overcome their mental blocks on this road trip, I believe we have a good shot at second in the division. Just need to get hot at the right time. I think they can do it.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Insane_Flame

That we have been playing better than our record shows. That things can turn around.
Who pissed in your cornflakes this morning?

Why didn't you state that in your original post then?

[Jason14h]

That bad special teams can kill a team's record?

[Heavy Jack]

That's just it. If our PP stepped up and got us 8 more goals across 8 games we would easily be in the top 2 spots of our Div and a lot closer to the VGN. I can't believe how much time they are giving the PP to figure itself out... something has to give ~ thankfully its a top unit on the road and we have a big stretch of away games here.

[bubbsy]

Advanced stats are interesting, and i think there's way WAY more that's going to happen in this space to get more complex data points to start building better and more accurate models for team sport and what equates to winning "under the hood".

That being said, with the type of models/advanced stats available today, i have yet to see any that correlate with actual winning.

The premise, the title itself is completely innacurate and misleading in my opinion. "Five of the NHL's best teams could miss the playoffs".

What a ludicrous and absurd claim! the only claim that can be made is "Five teams that fare well in this stat will miss playoffs". Is there ANY real coorelation with good teams, top teams, stanley cup winning teams that have shown that they were the best in this stat AND actually won anything on a regular basis?!?

I'm not bashing advanced stats. I'm not saying they are useless. However, to say that the flames are a great team or one of the league's "best" is completely false. Good teams win more than they lose, that's it.

[colbym72]

I am a supporter of advanced stats and when I see things like this and wonder why Calgary hasn't done better, you have to look further. The Flames are 2nd in High Danger Chance % but 24th in High Danger Shooting Percentage. That is pretty glaring that the chances are there but they need to convert them.

[Rick M.]

A good shooting percentage plus good corsi is a better predictor of success.

[The Boy Wonder]

I would think that generating shots isn't what teams are looking at behind closed doors. I'm sure they are actually using some more advanced stats like the high quality scoring chances for or something like that.

Analytics should be a result of the things you do, and serves as a way of checking and validating the eye test. It should validate the things you see on the ice and if they don't then you likely aren't looking at the right stats.

[kukkudo]

So the Oilers are good? Is that what is being said here? Visually better?

[madmike]

The Flames advanced stats have been solid all season. 5-on-5 I think the team is fine.

But you can't have a PP in the bottom 3rd of the league as well as a PK in the bottom half and expect to make the playoffs.

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by kukkudo

So the Oilers are good? Is that what is being said here? Visually better?

if you agree with what the OP is stating, then yes they're a good team.
so basically this thread is insane_flame saying the oilers are good.