My Prediction for the 2021-22 season

[MrMike]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

What exactly is a "core player" in your mind, and how does Coleman not satisfy that definition already?

Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk

I’d say Coleman is a “complimentary” piece.

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by MrMike

I’d say Coleman is a “complimentary” piece.

I agreed. He may work himself into a core player on the Flames but he has always been a complimentary piece in his career

[flambers]

Originally Posted by MrMike

I’d say Coleman is a “complimentary” piece.

Agreed,

Core of forwards is Gaudreau, Lindholm, Monahan and Tkachuk

Coleman has never been a core piece on any team....

He is a complimentary for sure....

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by saillias

I subbed to Jfresh's patreon (the guy making all the player cards we keep seeing) just to get a full picture of the Flames.

His model is pretty high on the team relative to the mood of the fanbase. I'm not sure if he's good with having his paywalled visuals shared but it has our forwards ranked 13th, defense 16th (but 7th defensively) and goaltending is surprisingly our weak spot at 19th.

Other interesting points are that our PK projects to be 1st and our forwards are ranked 3rd defensively. We are projected to have 98 points.

That sounds pretty reasonable for the goaltending - there is little in the statistics from last year that would suggest it should be higher. But this is exactly where I think there is so much room for optimism vs last season: Markstrom is an elite goalie who had an off-and-on, subpar season - there is so much reason to expect better this year (especially considering all of the positive defensive rankings being listed).

98 points sounds about right to me. I wouldn't be surprised if we hit or surpass 100, but my bet would be high 90s.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

There is not one definition

But for me, it’s the guy that are on your top line, your number 1 dman, on the #1 PP and starting goalie

For the Flames it would be Johnny, Tkachuk, Lindholm, unfortunately Monahan and of course Markstrom. Nobody on defense now.

So to fulfil your criteria, the Flames would have to bring in a 40 goal scorer or a #1D to make any meaningful upgrade. Good luck finding one of those on offer (unless you want to pay four 1st round picks for someone who might never play another NHL game and is certainly not guaranteed to reach that plateau).

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by Macindoc

So to fulfil your criteria, the Flames would have to bring in a 40 goal scorer or a #1D to make any meaningful upgrade. Good luck finding one of those on offer (unless you want to pay four 1st round picks for someone who might never play another NHL game and is certainly not guaranteed to reach that plateau).

That’s correct

Who said they have or can make any meaningful changes to the core?

They will have to trade the core or rebuild and that’s not happening

[GioforPM]

Neal was supposed to be a core piece when he was brought in. Lucic not so much.

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Neal was supposed to be a core piece when he was brought in. Lucic not so much.

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/c8/a5...474a42d760.gif

[P-DAZZLE]

Unless Coleman is going to be saying nice things to everyone all the time or won't be charging the team for his services he is complementary.

[MrMike]

Sorry, complementary, my dear Watson.

[AustinL_NHL]

Ended up writing this on HFBoards so figured I'd share here to:

This post basically just shows the incredible impact of Darryl Sutter and why I'm so optimistic compared to most Flames fans.

The Flames, under Darryl Sutter, had the following numbers (among all NHL teams) once he took over (all were SIGNIFICANT improvements over Ward):

Offensively:

- 55.95 CF/60 (8th)
- 42.72 FF/60 (7th)
- 29.52 SF/60 (11th)
- 2.68 GF/60 (9th)
- 2.22 xGF/60 (11th)
- 26.64 SCF/60 (9th)
- 9.90 HDCF/60 (14th)

Defensively:

- 45.73 CA/60 (2nd)
- 35.01 FA/60 (2nd)
- 25.11 SA/60 (3rd)
- 2.31 GA/60 (14th)
- 1.77 xGA/60 (2nd)
- 21.65 SCA/60 (3rd)
- 7.67 HDCA/60 (1st)

Overall:

- 55.03 CF% (2nd)
- 54.96 FF% (4th)
- 54.04 SF% (8th)
- 55.58 xGF% (3rd)
- 55.17 SCF% (5th)
- 56.34 HDCF% (3rd)
- 90.80 SV% (26th)

To Recap:

- The Flames were a top 10 offensive team once Sutter took over
- The Flames were a top 3 defensive team once Sutter took over
- The Flames were a top 5 overall team once Sutter took over
- Goaltending was absolute garbage

The most important statistics shown there are the bolded, which shows how badly the goaltending was, which absolutely destroyed the Flames' season. Even remotely average goaltending would've had the Flames comfortably in a Playoff spot last season.

I don't expect Markstrom to be anywhere as bad as he was last season post-injury, which again, adds to my optimism as he has the capability of being an elite #1.

I also expect even better numbers analytically (or at least similar, even despite some of the losses this offseason) + a much more comfortable team with a FULL training camp of Darryl Sutter, which I think is incredibly important.

Add in Sutter-type players like Zadorov, Pitlick, Lewis and especially Coleman, and I'm very excited to see what this team does next year, because this is the first time since, well, probably Sutter that the Flames have had a true identity.

They're going to be a hard-nosed, possession monster team that takes s*** from no one and grinds out W's while giving up next to nothing defensively.

This next part is super important so people don't mistake this post as me saying the Flames have an incredible team.

On paper, the Flames definitely don't have a top team, but Darryl Sutter is truly one of the few coaches that has legitimate incredible impacts on the teams he coaches.

Plus, I don't think the Flames' offseason is remotely over based on everything that's been reported, but even if this current roster is the one we head into next season with, the Flames are in a great spot based on last years numbers after Sutter took over, and if you know Darryl Sutter hockey, he works absolute magic in the Playoffs as lower seeds.

I would not be shocked in the slightest if the Flames finish 2nd in the Pacific behind Vegas. In fact, I think I'd be more surprised if they finished lower than 2nd.

Darryl Sutter.

[Burning Beard]

Originally Posted by AustinL_NHL

Ended up writing this on HFBoards so figured I'd share here to:

This post basically just shows the incredible impact of Darryl Sutter and why I'm so optimistic compared to most Flames fans.

The Flames, under Darryl Sutter, had the following numbers (among all NHL teams) once he took over (all were SIGNIFICANT improvements over Ward):

Offensively:

- 55.95 CF/60 (8th)
- 42.72 FF/60 (7th)
- 29.52 SF/60 (11th)
- 2.68 GF/60 (9th)
- 2.22 xGF/60 (11th)
- 26.64 SCF/60 (9th)
- 9.90 HDCF/60 (14th)

Defensively:

- 45.73 CA/60 (2nd)
- 35.01 FA/60 (2nd)
- 25.11 SA/60 (3rd)
- 2.31 GA/60 (14th)
- 1.77 xGA/60 (2nd)
- 21.65 SCA/60 (3rd)
- 7.67 HDCA/60 (1st)

Overall:

- 55.03 CF% (2nd)
- 54.96 FF% (4th)
- 54.04 SF% (8th)
- 55.58 xGF% (3rd)
- 55.17 SCF% (5th)
- 56.34 HDCF% (3rd)
- 90.80 SV% (26th)

To Recap:

- The Flames were a top 10 offensive team once Sutter took over
- The Flames were a top 3 defensive team once Sutter took over
- The Flames were a top 5 overall team once Sutter took over
- Goaltending was absolute garbage

The most important statistics shown there are the bolded, which shows how badly the goaltending was, which absolutely destroyed the Flames' season. Even remotely average goaltending would've had the Flames comfortably in a Playoff spot last season.

I don't expect Markstrom to be anywhere as bad as he was last season post-injury, which again, adds to my optimism as he has the capability of being an elite #1.

I also expect even better numbers analytically (or at least similar, even despite some of the losses this offseason) + a much more comfortable team with a FULL training camp of Darryl Sutter, which I think is incredibly important.

Add in Sutter-type players like Zadorov, Pitlick, Lewis and especially Coleman, and I'm very excited to see what this team does next year, because this is the first time since, well, probably Sutter that the Flames have had a true identity.

They're going to be a hard-nosed, possession monster team that takes s*** from no one and grinds out W's while giving up next to nothing defensively.

This next part is super important so people don't mistake this post as me saying the Flames have an incredible team.

On paper, the Flames definitely don't have a top team, but Darryl Sutter is truly one of the few coaches that has legitimate incredible impacts on the teams he coaches.

Plus, I don't think the Flames' offseason is remotely over based on everything that's been reported, but even if this current roster is the one we head into next season with, the Flames are in a great spot based on last years numbers after Sutter took over, and if you know Darryl Sutter hockey, he works absolute magic in the Playoffs as lower seeds.

I would not be shocked in the slightest if the Flames finish 2nd in the Pacific behind Vegas. In fact, I think I'd be more surprised if they finished lower than 2nd.

Darryl Sutter.

Thanks for rounding up all the numbers. The team was noticibly better under Sutter and I am like you and think that with a full season with him steering the ship this team could make some noise and be a total pain to play against.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Pipty

Why expect anything different from the flames of the last 3 decades with one or two outliers where we had the best player in the league for those seasons. Basically a 9-12 place finish in the west.

Their best regular season by a mile was 2 years ago not in the Iggy days

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Seattle has at the very least as good or better goalies and a defense lead by Gio that would appear to be more solid than the one that Calgary is putting out to start the season.

How bad did you think Gio was last season?

Funny that you like Flames players so much once they play for another team...you have pumped Gio and Brodie's tires more today than I have heard you ever in their Flames careers.

Seattle is better than Calgary? do you honestly think that? Have I got a bet for you!

[Macman]

I think Gio will have a good year, maybe left available in the expansion draft has lit a fire and he's going to come out with "I'll show You". Should be some good games against the Flames.

Could be another Norris nomination and even win.

[camm13]

Originally Posted by Macman

I think Gio will have a good year, maybe left available in the expansion draft has lit a fire and he's going to come out with "I'll show You". Should be some good games against the Flames.

Could be another Norris nomination and even win.

Lmao, okay there.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by Macman

I think Gio will have a good year, maybe left available in the expansion draft has lit a fire and he's going to come out with "I'll show You". Should be some good games against the Flames.

Could be another Norris nomination and even win.

The average age of Norris winners is 28.3 years, including the amazing outlier of Lidstrom at age 40, which will likely never happen again. By the time awards season rolls around, Gio will be 38. I'd bet good money against him winning it again. Nothing against Gio, but Father Time always wins.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by Macindoc

The average age of Norris winners is 28.3 years, including the amazing outlier of Lidstrom at age 40, which will likely never happen again. By the time awards season rolls around, Gio will be 38. I'd bet good money against him winning it again. Nothing against Gio, but Father Time always wins.

Gio fell off a lot last year. The fall off was do to age. That rarely reverses.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Goriders

Gio fell off a lot last year. The fall off was do to age. That rarely reverses.

Yes, through the first half of last year posters here were deadly afraid he wouldn't be exposed (which I doubted). Only after he was paired with Tanev did his game rebound. And I don't think Larsson or Dunn are anywhere near Tanev in defensive coverage.

[Igottago]

Originally Posted by AustinL_NHL

This next part is super important so people don't mistake this post as me saying the Flames have an incredible team.

On paper, the Flames definitely don't have a top team, but Darryl Sutter is truly one of the few coaches that has legitimate incredible impacts on the teams he coaches.

Plus, I don't think the Flames' offseason is remotely over based on everything that's been reported, but even if this current roster is the one we head into next season with, the Flames are in a great spot based on last years numbers after Sutter took over, and if you know Darryl Sutter hockey, he works absolute magic in the Playoffs as lower seeds.

I would not be shocked in the slightest if the Flames finish 2nd in the Pacific behind Vegas. In fact, I think I'd be more surprised if they finished lower than 2nd.

Darryl Sutter.

I like this post. Even though I haven't been completely thrilled with the offseason changes (yet) and I think the core needs more of a change, I can never discount a Sutter team. The man is an incredible coach. He will get more than he should out of whatever roster ends up being iced. If Treliving can make a few more improvements it just increases the damage his team can do.