[News] Flames opening day roster set

[timbit]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I just don't see the personnel. All three of those teams had elite goaltenders and, IMO, at least one defenceman who was better than Tanev generally is.

The Flames need Markstrom to rebound after his injuries and Tanev to continue his excellent play, plus a few more things to go their way. If Darryl's the man to fix it, I'll be super impressed.

Kipper was the third goalie in San Jose and , to your previous point, and had very few NHL games before joining Calgary. Tremendous acquisition on speculation.

SJ did not have an elite goalie. Darryl definitely influenced that trade, though.

Quick became elite when Darryl got to LA.

SJ had NO better D than Tanev.

[Kovaz]

I think, as a rule, any prediction that makes only negative or only positive assumptions is unlikely to be true. It's a really common line of reasoning - player X had a bad year, therefore they will be exactly that bad next year. In reality, players fluctuate a ton year-over-year, and chances are at least _some_ Flames will wildly exceed our expectations.


The D core looks bad right now, until randomly Kylington-Zadorov ends up being a terrific pair and all of a sudden we have a rock-solid top-4. Or Hanifin takes another step forward and carries his pairing with Andersson. Or Tanev stabilizes Valimaki's development and he gets back on track as a future top-pair defender. etc. The difference between a weak D core and a strong one is often just 1-2 things going right.


The only thing I'd feel confident guaranteeing right now is that the assumption that nothing will change is wrong.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by timbit

Great rebuttal.

Let’s go with Scorp.

I don’t follow, rebuttal to what exactly? I was just mentioning some of Tortorella’s picks as he seems to like the long shots.

[TheScorpion]

For what it's worth I subsequently made the following positive predictions

https://twitter.com/user/status/1448053252763762688

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I just don't see the personnel. All three of those teams had elite goaltenders and, IMO, at least one defenceman who was better than Tanev generally is.

The Flames need Markstrom to rebound after his injuries and Tanev to continue his excellent play, plus a few more things to go their way. If Darryl's the man to fix it, I'll be super impressed.

But those players were already there.

The change that precipitated the improvement in defensive play was the new coach.

[Sylvanfan]

The one thing that I'm not too worried about is how many goals the Flames will give up. My worry with the defense is that I don't think it can contribute enough offensively to help the team score enough and win enough games to make the playoffs. But I do think collectively as a group the team will be far more focused on playing strong in their own end. I would not be surprised to see the Flames allow less than 200 goals. This is a team who will be going out there trying to win 2-1 and 3-2 games.

I'll go so far as this, if this team can score 220 goals this season, They will make the playoffs. Even 210 I think will be enough. I don't think there's 20 goals to be had in this defence core, so that's 190-200 goals from this forward group. So if you think Gaudreau, Tkachuck, and Lindholm can combine for 90, let's say Mangiapane can add 25. That's 85 or more from the rest of the group. So can Monahan, Backlund, and Coleman give you say 55, than you need 30 out of Dube, Lucic, Pitlick, Richardson, Lewis, Gawdin, Ritchie, and call ups. It will need those top 7 guys to be pretty healthy and contribute quite a bit.

[Strange Brew]

This will be Sutter’s 5th coaching stint. Is there an NHL coach who has gone 5 for 5 in successful runs coaching different teams?

As much as I believe in him, Darryl can’t be the only answer for this team.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

They allowed 161 in 56 games last year — a 236-goal pace — and that was before they inexplicably decided to replace Giordano with Gudbranson and Zadorov.

In the last full NHL season, 14 teams allowed more than 250 goals. It's not like I said they'd give up 300 (although I don't think 275 is out of the question).

I'd put 10 bucks on 250 or more, though.

They also had 9 games against McDavid, 8 against Matthews ect.

Canadian div lacked D but certainly not O

Flames aren't gonna give up 250 guy

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

But those players were already there.



The change that precipitated the improvement in defensive play was the new coach.

A healthy goalie will help a great deal.

Sent from my SM-G960W using Tapatalk

[SeanCharles]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

For what it's worth I subsequently made the following positive predictions

https://twitter.com/user/status/1448053252763762688

The bold predictions are less bold and just plain depressing…

Being negative isn’t bold around here, it’s the norm.

[kyuss275]

I’m with scorpion on thinking the D is bad. I get Sutter wanted to instil an identity, but in doing so on the backend, he has taken away any chance of a good transition game. I have been advocating since the bubble playoffs that It was time to move on from Gio . However never in my wildest dreams did I think they would spend 90 % of his cap savings on zadarov and gudbranson . With the transition game being so vital in today’s game I’m shocked they went in another direction. Think high end talent teams like Avs and oilers will light up flames D like a Christmas tree. Hope Sutter proves me wrong but I’m not holding my breath.

[Roof-Daddy]

I don't think the D is 'bad' but they certainly lack proven puck movers and Dmen with offensive flair. Not going to get offense from Tanev/Zadarov/Gudbranson so they really need Andersson/Hanifin/Valimaki/Kylington to step up as a group.

You'd feel a lot better about the D if they had a true #1, like Gio 3-4 years ago.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

I don't think the D is 'bad' but they certainly lack proven puck movers and Dmen with offensive flair. Not going to get offense from Tanev/Zadarov/Gudbranson so they really need Andersson/Hanifin/Valimaki/Kylington to step up as a group.

You'd feel a lot better about the D if they had a true #1, like Gio 3-4 years ago.

The D is actually better than 2004 IMO. Reg was the only star defenceman and he was only 23. He may be better than Tanev as a shutdown, but not by much. But Leopold, Lydman, Warrener and Ference were just OK, and Commodore, Mondador and Gauthier were replacement level IMO. But that year, under Sutter, those guys were very effective. None of the D, including Leopold and Lydman, ever played better than when they did in Calgary. I think Hanifin is a better raw talent than Lydman or Leopold and so is Rasmus for that matter.

[Scroopy Noopers]

I really don’t understand the D hate.

Rasmus was supposed to take #1 power play spot last year, and be a solid top 4 guy. Goes double for this year and I don’t doubt that he can do it.

Hanifin took a step last year and I don’t see any reason why he won’t take another this year. They have Tanev as the glue to hold them together.

They didn’t ‘replace Gio’ with the bottom pairing guys… they developed and promoted from within (Hanifin and Andersson), which is exactly what most Flames fans want. Or at least it’s posted about constantly. It’s what is supposed to happen.

“Can’t believe they replaced Gio with Gudbranson and Zadorov” is just more mindlessly negative bitching.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

I really don’t understand the D hate.

Rasmus was supposed to take #1 power play spot last year, and be a solid top 4 guy. Goes double for this year and I don’t doubt that he can do it.

Hanifin took a step last year and I don’t see any reason why he won’t take another this year. They have Tanev as the glue to hold them together.

They didn’t ‘replace Gio’ with the bottom pairing guys… they developed and promoted from within (Hanifin and Andersson), which is exactly what most Flames fans want. Or at least it’s posted about constantly. It’s what is supposed to happen.

“Can’t believe they replaced Gio with Gudbranson and Zadorov” is just more mindlessly negative bitching.

Last years top 4: Giordano, Tanev, Hanifin, Andersson
This years top 4: Tanev, Hanifin, Andersson, Zadarov

That's a significant downgrade. It's unlikely Hanifin or Andersson are as good or better than Giordano was last year, so the top-end is potentially worse - and then the #4...I generally think Zadarov is awful, so there's my take on that. He should be a 3rd pairing defenceman/penalty killer to deny chances when pinned in his own zone on the PK.

I don't think it's mindless negative bitching, it's more just an analysis of what has taken place. The hope is that Hanifin/Andersson are as good/better than Giordano, that Zadarov at 26 becomes significantly better than he has been in his career to date, and that Darryl Sutter on the bench continues to see the structure of the team's play improve.

The defence is worse at the top-end (and if Gudbranson plays, the bottom-end). This team generally lacked top-end talent, and we saw what top-end talent we did have erode with the loss of Giordano. Whether it was Gio leaving in expansion or Father Time catching up to him, the Flames were going to need Hanifin and/or Andersson to take over as top dog at some point, so I guess we see how that plays out this season - but the hit we take in that #4 spot because those two have moved up, that's a problem.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

The D is actually better than 2004 IMO. Reg was the only star defenceman and he was only 23. He may be better than Tanev as a shutdown, but not by much. But Leopold, Lydman, Warrener and Ference were just OK, and Commodore, Mondador and Gauthier were replacement level IMO. But that year, under Sutter, those guys were very effective. None of the D, including Leopold and Lydman, ever played better than when they did in Calgary. I think Hanifin is a better raw talent than Lydman or Leopold and so is Rasmus for that matter.

The 2004 D corps was a good group for the game at the time but you're right, there were no stars other than Regehr. I think you're underselling some of those guys as just OK and replacement level, at least in comparing to this year's team. But time will tell if you're right.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

I really don’t understand the D hate.

Rasmus was supposed to take #1 power play spot last year, and be a solid top 4 guy. Goes double for this year and I don’t doubt that he can do it.

Hanifin took a step last year and I don’t see any reason why he won’t take another this year. They have Tanev as the glue to hold them together.

They didn’t ‘replace Gio’ with the bottom pairing guys… they developed and promoted from within (Hanifin and Andersson), which is exactly what most Flames fans want. Or at least it’s posted about constantly. It’s what is supposed to happen.

“Can’t believe they replaced Gio with Gudbranson and Zadorov” is just more mindlessly negative bitching.

IMO a lot of it comes down to Rasmus and Valimaki playing like we hope. Neither were good last year, if their trajectory goes back up (or insert Kylington for Valimaki), that D looks a lot better.

And the legend of Chris Tanev needs to stay in place. Is he a solid top 4 defenseman or the best shutdown guy in the league? And will he stay healthy?

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

.

The defence is worse at the top-end (and if Gudbranson plays, the bottom-end). This team generally lacked top-end talent, and we saw what top-end talent we did have erode with the loss of Giordano. Whether it was Gio leaving in expansion or Father Time catching up to him, the Flames were going to need Hanifin and/or Andersson to take over as top dog at some point, so I guess we see how that plays out this season - but the hit we take in that #4 spot because those two have moved up, that's a problem.

You’ve just said what I’m saying. The Gio replacement is Hanifin, with support from Rasmus. Whether that plays out how we hope is yet to be seen.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

I don't think Scorp is really making a crazy prediction. The only thing that is going to save the Flames is the fact they play in the Pacific division, which is really weak. They should be able to sneak into the 3rd slot in the division. If they can't do that, the 250 goals against predicted will certainly be in play. I personally don't see them giving up that many under Sutter, but it is possible. Markstrom should maintain his sub 3.00 GAA, but if he gets hurt, the potential for the GAA to balloon goes up. Markstrom's health is the lynchpin to that prediction having a chance IMO.

Where I see the Flames struggling is scoring. I don't see them outscoring many teams should the opposition get more than two past the Flames' goaltenders. That is where this team is going to hit a wall IMO. To keep the GAA down they will have to play a very disciplined defensive game to make up for the weak blueline. That is going to hurt the offense and keep those numbers down. The Flames will have to win a lot of games 2-1 or 3-2, because I don't see them scoring more than three goals on most nights. I see them giving up 230-235 goals (middle of the pack), but scoring 220-225 (lower third for offense).

Yeah I'm much more worried about the offence than the defensive numbers.

With Sutter Markstrom should see less ten bell chances, and with that you'd think less chance for injury. Playing in a Sutter system should mean a bounce back for his numbers as well.

Offence worries me but not because I dislike the forwards ... I don't. They are missing that true mega star, but their depth is better than the last few seasons and there's a healthy push coming from Mangiapane (for sure) and Dube (by the looks of it).

My concern is how does the puck get to them? If the Flames (Sutter) can find a way to turn some mucking defenders into a chip and chase style that works then good. Otherwise that's a lot on the shoulders of the few (Hanifin, Tanev, Andersson and maybe Kylington/Valimaki)

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

You’ve just said what I’m saying. The Gio replacement is Hanifin, with support from Rasmus. Whether that plays out how we hope is yet to be seen.

Hanifin has looked good in camp ... I'm not from Edmonton so I'm not writing that down in pen, but hopefully a good sign.

Tanev has looked like Tanev again too ... that could turn into an amazing four year deal if year two is 90% as good as year one.

From there I just don't know.

Hoping the last half of camp Andersson is what we are getting. Happy to see Kylington re-enter the mix as well, that's interesting. Concerned about Valimaki, but I have a feeling this is the breakdown by Sutter nearing and the build up coming. Glad Gudbranson has had some somewhat invisible games in the preseason, that start against Edmonton wasn't ideal. Zadorov has been as advertised ... a good defender that can't move the puck very well.

Plus I have a feeling we see Giordano come off a bit this year too, which moves any comparison. He's been through a lot.