[CP Story] Summer of Change & Impact on Style of Play

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Your highly skilled 2016-17 Flames had a HDCF% 48.73 % ranked 23rd /30 and a HDGF% of 48.47% ranked 18th.

Wait... don't you mean "our highly skilled 2016-17 Flames"?

[David Struch]

Backlund was also playing with a handicap last season. (Troy Brouwer)

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Wait... don't you mean "our highly skilled 2016-17 Flames"?

This is ricardodw we're talking about, so the slip is no huge surprise. Nice of him to out himself as a troll, though.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Bingo

That's pretty disingenuous ... I pointed out actual statistics that go well beyond +/- to disprove exactly what you're saying but you chose to just ignore it.

His actual splits suggest he played better after the all star game not worse.

Really glad you don't have Treliving's ear.

It appears that you seem to have less influence with Trevling than me. From your overall optimism about this year's Flames compared to last years you actually seem okay with Trevling more closely following my unsolicited advice than yours.


Neal, Lindhom, Ryan and Czarnik were added. Ryan especially was added to provide top-6 depth.

Had the Flames believed that Backlund was a 1B centre who stepped up and played better after he was extended then there would not have been the need to do such a major overhaul of the forwards. Half of the top 6 or at least 3 out of the top 7 have been replaced. Not a vote in confidence in last year team.

The possession stats that show a very limited correlation with winning would have suggested that the Flames stand pat and wait for their bad luck converting the possession dominance to revert to the norm and result in wins.

Trevling obviously did not think that the great possession stats were at all meaningful. He did not see Hamilton as a top 5 in the league D-man that was actually carrying Gio as his possession stats clearly show.

If you are as adamant on how great Backlund actually is based on possession stats you must really hate the Hamilton trade.

Trevling made a mistake giving Backlund a big 6 year deal...and has been on a winning streak since that mistake.

He needs to make a move on a goalie... even if it is going with Gillies as a 1B this year.

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

It appears that you seem to have less influence with Trevling than me. From your overall optimism about this year's Flames compared to last years you actually seem okay with Trevling more closely following my unsolicited advice than yours.


Neal, Lindhom, Ryan and Czarnik were added. Ryan especially was added to provide top-6 depth.

Had the Flames believed that Backlund was a 1B centre who stepped up and played better after he was extended then there would not have been the need to do such a major overhaul of the forwards. Half of the top 6 or at least 3 out of the top 7 have been replaced. Not a vote in confidence in last year team.

The possession stats that show a very limited correlation with winning would have suggested that the Flames stand pat and wait for their bad luck converting the possession dominance to revert to the norm and result in wins.

Trevling obviously did not think that the great possession stats were at all meaningful. He did not see Hamilton as a top 5 in the league D-man that was actually carrying Gio as his possession stats clearly show.

If you are as adamant on how great Backlund actually is based on possession stats you must really hate the Hamilton trade.

Trevling made a mistake giving Backlund a big 6 year deal...and has been on a winning streak since that mistake.

He needs to make a move on a goalie... even if it is going with Gillies as a 1B this year.

The Hamilton trade had nothing to do with Backlund. Signing Neal had nothing to do with Backlund. Adding bottom 6 depth had... can you guess? No? Nothing to do with Backlund. You can actually do all these things while still having faith in him.

You use the word "need", but if Treliving thinks he needs to make changes and improve his team in the process you make those changes regardless of were an individual player sits.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

It appears that you seem to have less influence with Trevling than me. From your overall optimism about this year's Flames compared to last years you actually seem okay with Trevling more closely following my unsolicited advice than yours.

Never said I had any influence ... was just thanking my lucky stars that you have none as well.

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Neal, Lindhom, Ryan and Czarnik were added. Ryan especially was added to provide top-6 depth.

Had the Flames believed that Backlund was a 1B centre who stepped up and played better after he was extended then there would not have been the need to do such a major overhaul of the forwards. Half of the top 6 or at least 3 out of the top 7 have been replaced. Not a vote in confidence in last year team.

The possession stats that show a very limited correlation with winning would have suggested that the Flames stand pat and wait for their bad luck converting the possession dominance to revert to the norm and result in wins.

Trevling obviously did not think that the great possession stats were at all meaningful. He did not see Hamilton as a top 5 in the league D-man that was actually carrying Gio as his possession stats clearly show.

They added wingers, Backlund is still firmly in the 2nd line center role. Your comment literally doesn't make sense.

I never once suggested staying pat, nor did anyone for that matter. I wrote an article in June talking about adding a 25 goal scorer up front and dealing from the blueline to make it happen.

But I do think it's possible that Treliving thought the team had a pretty odd season, but didn't like the way the team dealt with adversity and with that changed the coach, the room and the mix.

It was a natural move to boost the forward ranks at the expense of the blueline.

Originally Posted by ricardodw

If you are as adamant on how great Backlund actually is based on possession stats you must really hate the Hamilton trade.

Trevling made a mistake giving Backlund a big 6 year deal...and has been on a winning streak since that mistake.

He needs to make a move on a goalie... even if it is going with Gillies as a 1B this year.

I don't have to be adamant about anything ... all I have to do is sit calmly by and poke holes in your weak theories hammering players. Your Backlund take was a lame drive by that was easy to refute, but by doing so I never suggested Backlund is great.

He had a tough season. Tough seasons can mean the beginning of a slide, but when you're on ice stats go so wonky it is most likely a case of a correction coming.

I wish Backlund's deal was 4-5 years for sure, but I get that it's part of doing business, and Treliving recognized the player is too important to let him walk so the extra year or two was required to make it happen.

[Strange Brew]

I personally don’t believe Backlund was in danger of walking. I think his deal is 6 years vs. 5 to keep the AAV lower.

Look at the Flames salary structure and not hard to see Treliving’s approach.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Never said I had any influence ... was just thanking my lucky stars that you have none as well.



They added wingers, Backlund is still firmly in the 2nd line center role. Your comment literally doesn't make sense.

They added 2 centres. Both taking significant number of faceoffs with better FO % than Backlund.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

They added 2 centres. Both taking significant number of faceoffs with better FO % than Backlund.

And?

Treliving and every one else under the sun suggested the team was relying on too few to get things done. He was always going to go out and bolster the bottom half of the roster, both by adding depth players, and building up the top six and creating a trickle down effect.

None of that speaks to Backlund not being the second line center or part of the problem.

So you're going to go from +/- to face off stats now?

Backlund has centered one of the top two possession dominant lines in the league in the past two seasons. He's a valued member of this team and would have received more dollars and term on the open market.

[SeanCharles]

Backlund will be fine for the next 4+ years.

He plays such a complete game it's hard not to believe he will continue to be productive.

The way he retrieves pucks and drives play to the offensive zone is impressive.

He is good at passing, shooting, puckhandling and can skate.

I too worry about some of the older players signed to longer contracts in Gio, Neal, Backlund and to a certain extent Ryan but overall think none of them will become an albatross like Brouwer. Gio is an elite defender, Neal an elite shooter and Backs an elite 2-way centre. Ryan is a little shorter term so as long as the last 2 years weren't a fluke he'll be fine.

I think the best case scenario is they are productive all years of their deals, the most likely is they are productive for the majority of their deals with the exception of the last year or so, and worst case they crater immediately.

Backlund worries me the least because he's the youngest and we've all seen him develop over the years. He might be at his peak but I think he will continue to play at a high level for the foreseeable future.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by SeanCharles

Backlund will be fine for the next 4+ years...

Let's be clear here: I am virtually certain that NO ONE is altogether concerned that Backlund will suddenly start sliding precipitously down to fourth-line effectiveness in the course of the next several years. This is nothing norm than yet another discussion derailment by ricardodw stemming from an utterly baffling premise.

[PugnaciousIntern]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Let's be clear here: I am virtually certain that NO ONE is altogether concerned that Backlund will suddenly start sliding precipitously down to fourth-line effectiveness in the course of the next several years. This is nothing norm than yet another discussion derailment by ricardodw stemming from an utterly baffling premise.

No one? I can think of 1 person!

[AustinL_NHL]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

It appears that you seem to have less influence with Trevling than me. From your overall optimism about this year's Flames compared to last years you actually seem okay with Trevling more closely following my unsolicited advice than yours.


Neal, Lindhom, Ryan and Czarnik were added. Ryan especially was added to provide top-6 depth.

Had the Flames believed that Backlund was a 1B centre who stepped up and played better after he was extended then there would not have been the need to do such a major overhaul of the forwards. Half of the top 6 or at least 3 out of the top 7 have been replaced. Not a vote in confidence in last year team.

The possession stats that show a very limited correlation with winning would have suggested that the Flames stand pat and wait for their bad luck converting the possession dominance to revert to the norm and result in wins.

Trevling obviously did not think that the great possession stats were at all meaningful. He did not see Hamilton as a top 5 in the league D-man that was actually carrying Gio as his possession stats clearly show.

If you are as adamant on how great Backlund actually is based on possession stats you must really hate the Hamilton trade.

Trevling made a mistake giving Backlund a big 6 year deal...and has been on a winning streak since that mistake.

He needs to make a move on a goalie... even if it is going with Gillies as a 1B this year.

Lmao literally none of this makes sense.

My favorite part is that having been to many season ticket gatherings, I've heard Treliving both joke about how last season was a punishment from the analytics Gods for their magical 2014-15 run (said it in a very half serious way obviously) as well as mention that while last season was a huge disappointment, that firing GG was one of the toughest things he's ever had to do because looking at the underlying numbers the Flames had under him on top of other things, it was more the lack of depth (Treliving putting blame on himself) that cost us last season rather than the coach himself, although he mentioned there were other reasons that led to his dismissal.

With all that said, Treliving also mentioned how analytics of course are not the be all end all of all hockey related decisions but that they certainly do play an important factor.

So... try again

[the2bears]

Originally Posted by AustinL_NHL

So... try again

He will.

[Murph]

http://www.nhl.com/news/2018-19-nhl-...?tid=277729150

Didn’t know where else to put this, but from the goalie win projections, as well as the forward and defencemen point projections linked in the article, it appears the writers at NHL.com don’t think the Flames are going to make the playoffs.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Murph

http://www.nhl.com/news/2018-19-nhl-...?tid=277729150

Didn’t know where else to put this, but from the goalie win projections, as well as the forward and defencemen point projections linked in the article, it appears the writers at NHL.com don’t think the Flames are going to make the playoffs.

I wouldn't say that.

Only 13 goalies in the NHL had 29 wins last season, and the only one of them whose team failed to make the playoffs was Cam Talbot. Matt Murray (27), Keith Kinkaid (26), Semyon Varlomov (24), and Bryan Elliott (23) all had fewer than 28 wins, and two of them won fewer games than Smith and yet all of their teams made the playoffs.

*EDIT*
Also, it is patently ridiculous that nhl.com has TJ Brodie under 35 points this year when he will be playing on the top pairing. And Tkachuk's projection is extremely low for a guy who was on pace for a 60-point season last year.

[Murph]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I wouldn't say that.

Only 13 goalies in the NHL had 29 wins last season, and the only one of them whose team failed to make the playoffs was Cam Talbot. Matt Murray (27), Keith Kinkaid (26), Semyon Varlomov (24), and Bryan Elliott (23) all had fewer than 28 wins, and two of them won fewer games than Smith and yet all of their teams made the playoffs.

*EDIT*
Also, it is patently ridiculous that nhl.com has TJ Brodie under 35 points this year when he will be playing on the top pairing. And Tkachuk's projection is extremely low for a guy who was on pace for a 60-point season last year.

I guess I don’t see the NHL.com writers as having the faith they’d need to have in our back-ups to make up the number of wins we’d need to get in with Smith only winning 29. I guess we’ll see when their standings predictions come out.

[CF84]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Your highly skilled 2016-17 Flames had a HDCF% 48.73 % ranked 23rd /30 and a HDGF% of 48.47% ranked 18th.

In raw HDCF they 593 HDCF and were ranked 25th the league.

This team made the playoffs.

55.07 HDCF % rank 2nd and 50.87 HDGF% ranked 14th

The 2017-18 team generated 788 HDCF scoring chances 4th most in the league.


If these stats reflect skill and offensive prowess then the 2017-18 team was a lot better offensively than the 2016-17 playoff team.


IMHO the main difference between the 2 teams were that Backlund/ Frolik and Versteeg were top-6 players the first year and they were not close the 2nd second year.



These HDCF stats do not reflect this.

So, who is your team? Most of us have probably guessed correctly that you're not a Flames fan, so which team is it that you like best?

I'm going to take a wild guess at the Red Wings based on your join date.

The DW in your name stands for Detroit and Wings!!!

[Textcritic]

^
It's Winnipeg.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

They added 2 centres. Both taking significant number of faceoffs with better FO % than Backlund.

They added three right-handed centres, two of whom can also play right wing. Last season, the Flames had three right-shooting forwards: Lazar, Hathaway, and Brouwer. This was, of course, the reason for the Brouwerplay, and it was a huge handicap on the powerplay, with or without Brouwer. The Flames are now much more balanced between right and left shots, and they can ice four lines with two players each who can take draws on their strong side on opposite sides of the ice. If a centre goes down to injury, someone else can easily step in with minimal adjustment. By adding three players (including Neal) who can play right wing, Treliving addressed the Flames' biggest positional weakness and turned it into a strength.

This had nothing whatsoever to do with any concerns about Backlund.

This just gave me a thought. I am putting the lines in a bit of a blender, but it would leave each line with a left-shooting and a right-shooting centre so each could take draws on his strong side or could take the faceoff if the other is waved out:

1: Gaudreau - Monahan (L) - Lindholm (R)
2A: Bennett (L) - Ryan (R) - Neal
2B: Tkachuk - Backlund (L) - Czarnik (R)
4: Frolik - Jankowski (L) - Lazar (R)

This lineup should easily put the Flames in the top 5 in the league for faceoff percentage.