Pronman: Flames with the 29th ranked farm system

[sureLoss]

https://theathletic.com/459786/2018/...stem-rankings/

This is​ a snapshot of the​ current state​​ of NHL farm systems and the top prospect outside the NHL.

It is based on thousands of hours watching players across the hockey world, by way of live scouting and video, statistical analysis, and background work talking to scouts, coaches and executives.

These are my opinions on the players evaluated, as well as the systems those players are a part of, based on my own research. These opinions may differ at times from some NHL sources, even at times significantly.

I tend to value top talent much more than depth of decent players. Depth is incorporated though, as there is value to filling out your roster with young, cheap talent rather than looking to the marketplace; but significant weight is placed on prospects who could be stars or even upper half of the lineup players. All except one of my top 15 systems have a player who I label as a high-end prospect or better and that one system has incredible quality depth.

I value goalie prospects very conservatively. In the past 10 years or so, I’ve only rated one goalie who I thought would be a top-tier player (Andrei Vasilevskiy) and only a handful who I’d project to be a starting goalie in the NHL.

He is releasing the rankings with a couple per day. He has the Lightning and Capitals as the two teams with the worse farm system.

Jets are 28. At time of original posting no other teams rankings have been released.


He also breaks down the prospects into categories:

Special prospect: Projects to be one of the very best at their position in the league
Elite prospect: Projects to be top 10 percent of the league at their position.
High-end prospect: Projects as a legit top-line forward who can play on your PP1/top pairing defenseman.
Very good prospect: Projects as a top-six forward/top-four defenseman/starting goaltender.
Legit NHL prospect: Projects to play, probably not in a top role, but is close enough that he could realistically get there.
Have a chance: Probably not an impact guy but could play in the league and has the toolkit to have an outside chance to be a real player. Have a chance refers to probability to be a good player, not his probability to play NHL games.
Depth: Player who doesn’t have the skillset to play high in your lineup but could fill out your roster and/or be an injury call-up option.

He doesn't categorize the Flames having anything above "Legit NHL prospect" with the following:

1. Kylington
2. Valimaki
3. Mangiapane
4. Andersson
5. Dube
6. Phillips
7. Ruzicka

He has 4 more prospects as "Have a chance" and 8 more prospects as "Depth".

Some of the major differences from the CP rankings:
Joly tops the "I have a chance" at #8.
Parsons at #14 in the "Depth" category
Klimchuk at #19


Direct link to the Flames article:
https://theathletic.com/433940/2018/...algary-flames/

[Moneyhands23]

How the hell is Valamaki so poorly rated???

[Bingo]

I got surelossed

Will delete

[Bingo]

He added that the Flames system isn't in that bad of shape when you consider the lack of picks in this year's draft.

He also said he never rates goalies high due to their unpredictability.

[Strange Brew]

Treliving has put his focus into building a young NHL roster. If the team is to improve in the standings, it's not going to come from prospects having a huge impact. It will be because the young NHL players get better.

I don't know near enough about other team's prospects to have a meaningful view of the accuracy of this ranking although wonder how many posts it will be before someone complains about Oilers being ranked higher?

[Erick Estrada]

If you are strictly looking at what teams have in their farm system I would agree the Flames would be bottom half in the league but when you have guys like Tkachuk that graduate early that's going to make your system look worse in comparison to your drafting. The Jets are arguably the best drafting team in the NHL so I'm not sure what this ranking is proving. Interesting that he thinks Kylington is the best prospect as he's got a lot of work to do on his defensive game before he's going to get a look in the NHL and I'm not sure that ever happens with the Flames.

I also think when looking at the Lightning and Capitals in last place we should remember that it counts much more what your NHL roster is than your farm system most of these prospects discussed never make it anyway.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Treliving has put his focus into building a young NHL roster. If the team is to improve in the standings, it's not going to come from prospects having a huge impact. It will be because the young NHL players get better.

I don't know near enough about other team's prospects to have a meaningful view of the accuracy of this ranking although wonder how many posts it will be before someone complains about Oilers being ranked higher?

I'm with you it's tough to judge other lists, but in seeing the Tampa detail he does seem to have a recency bias to some degree. Lots of the Tampa depth that was on Team Canada at WJC in the past two years are now sliding into his "Legit NHL prospect" rank and not higher including Raddysh, Katchouk and Foote.

[Moneyhands23]

I do sincerely hope that the Flames keep their 1st round picks for the next 3 years. Really this roster shouldn't need to trade a 1st for help anytime soon.

[burnitdown]

Originally Posted by Bingo

He added that the Flames system isn't in that bad of shape when you consider the lack of picks in this year's draft.

He also said he never rates goalies high due to their unpredictability.

Parsons is definitely way lower than expected but as you said, he starts off the summary saying he never ranks goalies high unless they're incredible...so that's understandable.

I think you could argue Kylington and especially Valimaki could be upgraded to the "very good prospect" tier. The rest seems somewhat reasonable. Odd to see us so low so it'll be interesting to see why the teams above us are ranked higher. I'm guessing they have one or two blue chip prospects, which he says he plays more value on.

I'm also guessing most of TB and Winnipeg's prospects have graduated? I'm surprised they're also at the bottom as they always seem to have a mega pipeline of talented prospects ready to play each year.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Fair ranking at worst. Might even be a bit too nice to the Flames.

Every team fanbase gets a hardon for their prospects but the Flames really have an empty cupboard compared to the average team when looking strictly at prospects who have yet to make the team.

With that said, Gaudreau, Monahan, Tkachuk, Hanifin, Lindholm, has to be one of the best under 25 core players in the league.

[Oling_Roachinen]

Originally Posted by burnitdown

I'm also guessing most of TB and Winnipeg's prospects have graduated? I'm surprised they're also at the bottom as they always seem to have a mega pipeline of talented prospects ready to play each year.

One of the issues with teams like that, and the Wings of old, is that two years ago Gourde and Point would have not brought up their rankings much at all. Especially Gourde, an undrafted recent ECHL player. Last season he got 25 goals in the NHL. Hard to rank surprise hits like that.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by burnitdown

Odd to see us so low

Shrug... shuffling your top top picks directly into the NHL and trading away a bunch of 1st and 2nd round picks will do that.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

If you are strictly looking at what teams have in their farm system I would agree the Flames would be bottom half in the league but when you have guys like Tkachuk that graduate early that's going to make your system look worse in comparison to your drafting. The Jets are arguably the best drafting team in the NHL so I'm not sure what this ranking is proving.

It is just talking about the exiting prospects.

It doesn't tell, not does it attempt top tell, the relative drafting prowess of the various teams.

As you mention, teams like Winnipeg have drafted very well, but a lot of their high end prospects are already in the NHL.

That's why it is hard to remain on the top of this list for very long, as teams with high end prospects should be losing them to the NHL.

What it means to teams like the Flames is to not expect much immediate help from prospects in the near future. The best prospects they had, have already graduated to the NHL.

[Beninho]

All I know is Valimaki is gonna surprise a lot of people, makes very little sense to have Kylington ranked above him and Andersson. These farm system rankings are all pointless anyways so who cares.

[bax]

29th seems bad, but things aren't that gloomy for the Flames. I think he's too hard on Valimaki, but other than that it's hard to argue and there is no denying that we have lacked picks the last few years. The system will be fine. In the mean time we have:

Bennett - 22
Czarnik - 25
Gaudreau - 24
Jankowski - 23
Monahan - 23
Tkachuk - 20
Hanifin - 21
Lindholm - 23

That is some really strong, young talent already in the NHL

[sureLoss]

Pronman tends to rank players that he thinks that are dynamic (e.g. flashy) really high.

He has been high on Kylington for a very long time. So not really surprised he has Kylington as the top guy.

[ricardodw]

who are his highest ranks farms?

Buffalo Vancouver Vegas?

[Enoch Root]

Yeah, Pronman likes the flashy little guys, so no surprise to see Phillips among our highest ranked. But to be that far off consensus with Valimaki is bizarre, considering the WJC tournament and WHL playoffs he just had.

Whatever - one man's opinion.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

who are his highest ranks farms?

Buffalo Vancouver Vegas?

Looks like he is revealing it in countdown fashion.
So far:
28. Winnipeg Jets

29. Calgary Flames

30. Tampa Bay Lightning

31. Washington Capitals

I would guess Buffalo #1.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Yeah, Pronman likes the flashy little guys, so no surprise to see Phillips among our highest ranked. But to be that far off consensus with Valimaki is bizarre, considering the WJC tournament and WHL playoffs he just had.

Whatever - one man's opinion.

Didn't valimaki fall in a recent redraft? I feel like I read that.