The Shocking Decline of T.J. Brodie - The Athletic Calgary

[SuperMatt18]

This was posted by Tinordi in "The Athletic comes to Calgary" thread but I think this discussion warrants it's own thread.

Kent Wilson put together a great look at the decline of TJ Brodies play and how it's seemingly declined year after year.

I know many of us have placed the blame on the coaches playing him on the Left Side, and last year on his revolving door of partners, but Kent really paints a picture that shows there is more to it than that.

One thing that really stands out to me is how this decline started even before he was separated from Gio. They were elite in 13/14, still great in 14/15, but then pretty average in 15/16 - and IIRC it was actually a reason some were hesitant to give Gio the big contract.

However looking back now it's clear that Gio bounced back to elite status once paired with Dougie, but the decline has continued for

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It's probably worth a shot to see if he would improve back on the right side - but this shows that there was likely more to his decline than just a move to the left side.

Once again great work by Kent Wilson and the guys at the Athletic - they are doing a great job digging into the issues this team has (PP, PK, Brodie) with work much more in-depth than the traditional outlets.
https://theathletic.com/226473/2018/...-of-tj-brodie/

[Erick Estrada]

I know the team likes him but I think he's the guy they need to move this summer to get some offensive help. I don't want to go through another season trying to win games 1-0 and 2-1 like this as it's been painful to watch at times this season as has Brodie's play.

[vicarious]

Interesting. I can't read the full article but was his TOI with Stone left out on purpose?

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by vicarious

Interesting. I can't read the full article but was his TOI with Stone left out on purpose?

Needed to play more than 300 minutes with the partner.

[neo45]

honestly that more so confirms my thinking that the decline is 80% not being with our best defenseman and 20% having to switch sides.


The shocking difference between right side with Gio and left side with Engelland IN THE SAME YEAR highlights that

[djsFlames]

Wouldn't the lesson in this be, put him back on the right side?

Wtf is with the teams obsession with needing left shots and right shots on their respective sides? It's clearly not always the way to go in every case. Brodie being one of those exceptions. Every person around the Flames not names Gulutzan knows that Brodie's backhand is one of his strengths and it's no coincidence that playing on his off side came with strong play.

[Joborule]

Isn't this team very advanced stat based now? If so, you figure the numbers are staring right at their face saying to put him back on his off side.

If they're not willing to do that, trade him for a forward than. He's not performing as well as he could be on his weak side.

[bubbsy]

Brodie has definitely declined by the eye test also. He used to be able to use his skating to move the puck up the ice and create quick transition to offense, but also just to skate out of trouble. His skating was good enough to recover and get back in time when needed.

My BIGGEST concern with brodie are 2 fold:
1) Generally, he's been ok defensively, especially of late, but he seems to, too often, get beat to pucks and not seemingly 'engage' defensively to do whatever it takes to keep the puck out of the net

2) Complete lack of offensive instinct when it comes to shooting the puck. Double clutching, doing the same old "wide on purpose", or taking so much time to decide to finally shoot that the lane is obviously gone. I realize he doesn't have the best shot, but it just seems he's so insecure about it, he's too shy to shoot now, which is a big problem if you are playing the point on the PP, and are relied on to be a 2-way dman.

I really think he'll be used as a chip this summer to shore up the forward situation. Whether it's to get more high end skill on the wings, or to help offset the potential loss of our 2nd line C in backlund, at this point, i'd rather he be traded than our other dmen options.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Wouldn't the lesson in this be, put him back on the right side?

Wtf is with the teams obsession with needing left shots and right shots on their respective sides? It's clearly not always the way to go in every case. Brodie being one of those exceptions. Every person around the Flames not names Gulutzan knows that Brodie's backhand is one of his strengths and it's no coincidence that playing on his off side came with strong play.

Originally Posted by Joborule

Isn't this team very advanced stat based now? If so, you figure the numbers are staring right at their face saying to put him back on his off side.

If they're not willing to do that, trade him for a forward than. He's not performing as well as he could be on his weak side.

I think this article shows it's potentially not as simple as that.

His play was dropping off even when still on the RH side with Giordano.

Same coach, same partner, and look at the relative Corsi YoY under Hartley and paired with Gio.

13/14: +12.5%
14/15: +6.2%
15/16: +2.0%

At the time we thought this was due to Gio aging, and many even questioned the contract extension because of it.

Instead Gio got paired with Dougie, went back to being elite and one of the top d-pairings in the game, and Brodie continued on that downward trend.

I'd say it's worth a shot - especially since he does seem to be more comfortable there - but I wonder if the guy has lost a step and just isn't able to skate his way out of trouble as much as he used to be able to.

[GioforPM]

2015-16, Gio was (a) getting over the arm injury and (b) paired with Hamilton a fair bit especially early on. Brodie started the year with a broken hand, too.

The stats with Engelland from 2014-15 are surprising because the narrative was that they were brilliant without Gio in the lineup.

That list appears to be the most usual partners, but I'd like to see the stats with Stone from last year as well.

[Inglewood Jack]

if you flip him to the other side, who else is getting flipped to compensate? you might fix Brodie at the cost of effing up one of the other guys.

[djsFlames]

And when he is eventually traded, the receiving team that isn't as anal about LS/RS will happen to put him on the side he plays best and his pre-2016 play resurfaces. Or at least a level closer to that.

Let's pray the player coming back is a good one.

[Robbob]

This is why we can't have nice things.

When you compare his salary to similar aged Dmen is it really that bad?

[Imported_Aussie]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Wouldn't the lesson in this be, put him back on the right side?

Wtf is with the teams obsession with needing left shots and right shots on their respective sides? It's clearly not always the way to go in every case. Brodie being one of those exceptions. Every person around the Flames not names Gulutzan knows that Brodie's backhand is one of his strengths and it's no coincidence that playing on his off side came with strong play.

The problem we have then is how Treliving has built the defence. On the right hand side, the depth chart is:
Hamilton (top pairing, main piece long term)
Hamonic (paid a premium in trade)
Stone (signed to a multi year deal as UFA)
Andersson (closest D prospect)
Fox (also very close, high upside prospect)

If Brodie isn't going to stick long term at LD, you then have to see which of our Right sided guys work best on their off-side. Or more likely, you need to trade from that right side and address the left. It does make the Hamonic trade look ill-advised, as it is clear now that Treliving misread his roster

[dammage79]

How many of those insanely beautiful backhand passes have we seen since Brodes went to the left side? I want to say none.

I'd say it's pretty evident Brodie is a Right side D man and if the Flames are set on RH/RS and LH/LS, then you gotta move Brodie for a D man that is more proficient in the left side. I feel like Jonas Brodin is worth a mention.

Either way, if Brodie can anchor his very own pairing on the left side, that major chink in the Flames D corps armor. It's been a rough do this year for #7.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by dammage79

How many of those insanely beautiful backhand passes have we seen since Brodes went to the left side? I want to say none.

I'd say it's pretty evident Brodie is a Right side D man and if the Flames are set on RH/RS and LH/LS, then you gotta move Brodie for a D man that is more proficient in the left side. I feel like Jonas Brodin is worth a mention.

Either way, if Brodie can anchor his very own pairing on the left side, that major chink in the Flames D corps armor. It's been a rough do this year for #7.

bruh, read the article.

follow up question:

Just how good is he if he can only be effective on one side of the ice?

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

This was posted by Tinordi in "The Athletic comes to Calgary" thread but I think this discussion warrants it's own thread.

Kent Wilson put together a great look at the decline of TJ Brodies play and how it's seemingly declined year after year.

I know many of us have placed the blame on the coaches playing him on the Left Side, and last year on his revolving door of partners, but Kent really paints a picture that shows there is more to it than that.

One thing that really stands out to me is how this decline started even before he was separated from Gio. They were elite in 13/14, still great in 14/15, but then pretty average in 15/16

Revisionism?

2015-16 was the best year of Brodie's career. He was a top 10 defenseman in the NHL that year.

[djsFlames]

His backhand is a weapon the Flames are denying themselves of for no reason.

Although I'll also point out that it's been a while since we've seen the Brodie that would skate laps around the o-zone drawing defenders to him before setting up a nice play. He doesn't need to be playing on a specific side to do that still.

[GioforPM]

I actually think the outlier is this year. Those stats show Brodie is pretty good with Gio and one year was absolutely top notch. He had poor possession stats with Engelland and also Russell (with Brodie on the right side) and Wideman, who are poor possession players.

I think it shows that Brodie is a player who Gio can make better (shocking), and who the likes of "ring it around the boards" Engelland make worse. The one that's a headscratcher is Hamonic but I think that's a combination of Hamonic being new and Brodie having a really off year.

[Kovaz]

Using relative numbers as an absolute measure of quality is going to lead to some pretty invalid conclusions IMO. They're only a measure of how effective your pairing is relative to the rest of the team. Gio-Brodie as a pair had some pretty brutal depth behind them, while Brodie-<not Gio> always has Gio playing 25 minutes of pretty dominant hockey affecting his off-ice numbers.

In 2013-14, Gio-Brodie put up a 56% Corsi, while our #2 pair by ice-time of Russell-Butler was at a stellar 39%. Some other pairs included Russell-Wideman at 48%, and a random assortment of combinations of Russell, Wideman, Butler, Smid, O'Brien hovering in the low 40s.

In 2014-15, Gio-Brodie were at around 48%, with our #2 pair of Russell-Wideman was at 43%, and <anybody>-Engelland on the 3rd pair hanging below 40% (except Diaz-Engelland, who were at 45%).

In 2015-16 we acquire Hamilton, which changes the complexion of our second pair dramatically. Gio-Brodie were again strong with 49%, and Russell-Hamilton in 2nd at about 45%. Once again, you've got an Engelland-led 3rd pair in the 30s, notably Wideman-Engelland at 38%.

Then in 2016-17 after being separated, Brodie-Wideman actually had better possession stats than the previous 2 years of Gio-Brodie at 50%. However now you've got the super-dominant pair of Gio-Hamilton running at 57% to be compared against. No #### that's gonna hurt your relative numbers.

Similar story in 2017-18: Gio-Hamilton dominant, Brodie-Hamonic sort of ok.


I agree that Brodie has declined, but that table is not a fair representation. If the 2013-14 Gio-Brodie pair, at their absolute peak, were cloned, put on todays' team in Brodie-Hamonic's place, and performed exactly the same, they'd be a CF Rel of about +1.5% - in other words worse than the 2015-16 pairing that you called "average".

Being compared against a 39% Russell-Butler pairing makes you look a lot better than being compared against a 57% Giordano-Hamilton pairing.