Big Save Dave: Is he the long term answer?

[Erick Estrada]

If Rittich finishes strong into the playoffs, I would use Talbot's current contract as a measuring stick as the situations are similar. Talbot was a backup in NY and played one full season starting 56 games in Edmonton before getting a 3 x $4.1 million deal.

[Geeoff]

I would not want to be the one to make a long term call on a goalie. Obviously, if Rittich is a .920 goalie, you want to keep him long term but it's so hard to tell...

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

And that's exactly my point. Today, if we could get him at $2.5M-$3.0M, I would've signed him yesterday. This is a number I had pegged him at in December. The fear though, is that if his game continues to progress and he gains more and more leverage, that his ask sky rockets as well. This is the type of conversation that I can almost guarantee the higher ups in Flames management are doing.

I think you are misunderstanding me. I am suggesting that the difference between signing him today vs. signing him in the off-season is likely to be in the ballpark of the difference between a $2.5 m AAV and a $3.0 m AAV.

In my opinion, they have to get on this early before it becomes a Tkachuk like situation. Last summer, maybe the Flames could've had him at 7ish. Now, I doubt he'll be cheaper than 8 or even 9.

I don't think there was ever a possibility of signing Tkachuk in summer 2018 because I don't think the Tkachuks were interested in committing pen-to-paper. Likewise, I don't really think Rittich is highly motivated to sign a deal today.

[Split98]

Talbot signed in Edmonton going on three years ago?

No wonder I blinked and became old.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

He is playing at a top10 #1 goalie in the league level and has the right to arbitration. If he waits for a offer there would be several teams that jump at giving up a 4 x 2 for a 2nd round pick.

4 M is the absolute low that he will get... on a one year deal.

I think that a $4.0 m AAV would actually be the maximum, and your projection of an RFA offer sheet actually suggests as much.

Trouba got 5.5M on a one year deal in the same situation.

What in the hell are you talking about? Jacob Trouba was a five-year NHL professional with 326 games played when he signed his deal last summer. David Rittich is in his second NHL season, and his first as a starter. The two situations could barely be more dissimilar.

Trouba missed a third last season and the Jets still comfortably made the playoffs and at no time was in the top 20 d-men in the league.

If Rittich misses a 15 starts of his expected 30 remaining starts and the Flames are hard pressed to make the playoffs.

I am not sure what this has to do with anything, but the Flames will not miss the playoffs this year. It is to the point that it would actually be challenging for them to do so.

He is in the running for the Flames MVP.

Hahaha! No.

Giordano and Gaudreau are far and away the Flames MVPs this year, and it is not even close.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

1) if you were him, would you sign today at $2.5M? I sure wouldn't.

2) Obviously we don't know what they are thinking, but the fact that they aren't actually talking suggests what they are thinking (that it's better to wait).

Yeah, you might sign a deal today - I know I would certainly give it a very good look if in his shoes. For an athlete that has never had long term stability at premium dollars, it's a huge deal to potentially secure dollars for yourself today compared to tomorrow.

I agree it likely is far better for Rittich to wait it out, but you have to relate to the fact that he is likely worrying to some degree: what if i get hurt, what if the team cools off etc.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

Yeah, you might sign a deal today - I know I would certainly give it a very good look if in his shoes. For an athlete that has never had long term stability at premium dollars, it's a huge deal to potentially secure dollars for yourself today compared to tomorrow.

I agree it likely is far better for Rittich to wait it out, but you have to relate to the fact that he is likely worrying to some degree: what if i get hurt, what if the team cools off etc.

He's likely listening to his agent, who will want as big a number as possible, way more than giving into his own insecurities.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Split98

I could be wrong, but I always thought of him as one of the GMs that does like to tie up what he can mid-season

Backlund was extended Feb 16, 2018. There could be others (or Backs is the outlier) but he's the only specific name that came to mind

I know that Gio, Monnie and Johnnie were all off-season. Same for the lower guys coming of EFCs, like Bennett, Jankowski, etc. Or one year guys like Hathaway, etc.

Looking back, Brodie was signed in October for the next season and that's the only one I can find.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

...I agree it likely is far better for Rittich to wait it out, but you have to relate to the fact that he is likely worrying to some degree: what if i get hurt, what if the team cools off etc.

I honestly don't believe that any professional athletes worry about things like this—at least, not until they are approaching the ends of their careers.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I honestly don't believe that any professional athletes worry about things like this—at least, not until they are approaching the ends of their careers.

I think they all do.

The reason the back diving contracts existed like Kieth was precisely because he could lock up more money then he ever needed at zero risk while the team got a lower cap it. If players didn’t think like that the 1 yr deal would be the only deal a player would ever sign. McJesus signs his eight year deal becuase when someone offers you 100 million dollars you say yes even if you might be worth more later.

The trade off between risk and maximizing salary is what drives the contract from the player side.

The question for the Rittich camp is how much money does it take to buy his lottery tickets. His upside right now is 1.5 years of the same play might get him a 6x6. If he falls off he continues to get 1 million per year backup deals. So the difference is between 8.5 million (say he can get a 1 yr 2.5 next year) and 38.5 million.

So I think you need at least a 16 million dollar contract to buy that upside today. So a 4x4. Are the flames interested in that now? Probably not. That number, I don’t think moves significantly between now and the end of the season. With Gaudreau getting Hart noise and Gio getting Norris noise I’m not sure you see any Vezina noise for Rittich.

[Split98]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I honestly don't believe that any professional athletes worry about things like this—at least, not until they are approaching the ends of their careers.

I think the majority of young pros don't worry about that, but I think it has a lot to do with any mentorship they had along the way

Some have been mentored to milk every dollar you're worth
Some have been mentored to find stability

I would imagine that when agents are involved 'get your money' takes over for most. But TBQH, if I became a pro today (I'm real close) I might actually be swayed towards stability over extra cash.

$2.5M/year is a good chunk of change (lowest he's accepting IMO)

But I wouldn't say that no young athletes consider insurance and stability as valuable commodities.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by GGG

I think they all do.

The reason the back diving contracts existed like Kieth was precisely because he could lock up more money then he ever needed at zero risk while the team got a lower cap it. If players didn’t think like that the 1 yr deal would be the only deal a player would ever sign. McJesus signs his eight year deal becuase when someone offers you 100 million dollars you say yes even if you might be worth more later.

The trade off between risk and maximizing salary is what drives the contract from the player side.

The question for the Rittich camp is how much money does it take to buy his lottery tickets. His upside right now is 1.5 years of the same play might get him a 6x6. If he falls off he continues to get 1 million per year backup deals. So the difference is between 8.5 million (say he can get a 1 yr 2.5 next year) and 38.5 million.

So I think you need at least a 16 million dollar contract to buy that upside today. So a 4x4. Are the flames interested in that now? Probably not. That number, I don’t think moves significantly between now and the end of the season. With Gaudreau getting Hart noise and Gio getting Norris noise I’m not sure you see any Vezina noise for Rittich.

Yes, but you're talking about length of contract, at signing.

TextCritic's reference was with respect to a player signing mid-season (for less), because of the risk that they might get injured before the end of the season.

And I agree with him that players don't think like that.

[Split98]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Yes, but you're talking about length of contract, at signing.

TextCritic's reference was with respect to a player signing mid-season (for less), because of the risk that they might get injured before the end of the season.

And I agree with him that players don't think like that.

I don't think Rittich is running to the table to get this locked up before playoffs

I think the thought of signing mid-season is prompted by Treliving

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Split98

I think the majority of young pros don't worry about that, but I think it has a lot to do with any mentorship they had along the way

Some have been mentored to milk every dollar you're worth
Some have been mentored to find stability

I would imagine that when agents are involved 'get your money' takes over for most. But TBQH, if I became a pro today (I'm real close) I might actually be swayed towards stability over extra cash.

$2.5M/year is a good chunk of change (lowest he's accepting IMO)

But I wouldn't say that no young athletes consider insurance and stability as valuable commodities.

$2.5M sounds great because (I'll presume), it's a fair amount, relative to what you're making.

But once you're making it, the $2.5M is just reality, and the difference between $2.5M and $3.5M is huge, because you know (or should) that your career is really short and you need to capitalize.

[Split98]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

$2.5M sounds great because (I'll presume), it's a fair amount, relative to what you're making.

But once you're making it, the $2.5M is just reality, and the difference between $2.5M and $3.5M is huge, because you know (or should) that your career is really short and you need to capitalize.

I'll take your word for it!

I think it goes both ways though. Giving up $1M/year vs giving up a year of $2.5M (in this hypothetical scenario)

I listen and play devil's advocate more than anything here. When it comes to goalies, I have no clue what term/cash/motivation gets things done with them.

Such weird creatures

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by GGG

I think they all do.

The reason the back diving contracts existed like Kieth was precisely because he could lock up more money then he ever needed at zero risk while the team got a lower cap it. If players didn’t think like that the 1 yr deal would be the only deal a player would ever sign. McJesus signs his eight year deal becuase when someone offers you 100 million dollars you say yes even if you might be worth more later.

Well, no. Back-diving deals were introduced purely as a means to reduce a player's cap-hit. Negotiations were based on the term that carried a player through their projected earning years, and then additional years were tacked on to that with the expectation that the player would likely retire before the contract expired. I don't dispute that term is important for players, but I also don't believe for a second that players in their mid-twenties spend any time worrying about injuries or decline. They believe more than anyone in their potential.

The trade off between risk and maximizing salary is what drives the contract from the player side.

The question for the Rittich camp is how much money does it take to buy his lottery tickets. His upside right now is 1.5 years of the same play might get him a 6x6. If he falls off he continues to get 1 million per year backup deals. So the difference is between 8.5 million (say he can get a 1 yr 2.5 next year) and 38.5 million.

So I think you need at least a 16 million dollar contract to buy that upside today. So a 4x4. Are the flames interested in that now? Probably not. That number, I don’t think moves significantly between now and the end of the season. With Gaudreau getting Hart noise and Gio getting Norris noise I’m not sure you see any Vezina noise for Rittich.

I think that number is high. Yes, Rittich is arbitration-eligible, but he also has limitations imposed by the market on what he can reasonably command. He must sign with the Flames, or sign a RFA offer-sheet. There are a high number of pending UFA goalies this summer with good track records, and probably not enough teams in the market to make an offer-sheet a legitimate option. I think Rittich is probably looking at an arbitration case valued at around $4.0 x 2. That is the high-water mark for the Flames.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

1) if you were him, would you sign today at $2.5M? I sure wouldn't.

2) Obviously we don't know what they are thinking, but the fact that they aren't actually talking suggests what they are thinking (that it's better to wait).

I wouldn't either. At 3.5M over 3 yrs I'd certainly consider it.

We also don't know for sure that they're not talking nor and if they're not, that would be a pretty big oversight by one of the hardest working GMs in the game. Treliving knows his cap situation better than anyone else going forward and he has to know that there's not a ton of space to sign Tkachuk, Bennett, Rittich to new deals along with several other positions.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I think you are misunderstanding me. I am suggesting that the difference between signing him today vs. signing him in the off-season is likely to be in the ballpark of the difference between a $2.5 m AAV and a $3.0 m AAV.


I don't think there was ever a possibility of signing Tkachuk in summer 2018 because I don't think the Tkachuks were interested in committing pen-to-paper. Likewise, I don't really think Rittich is highly motivated to sign a deal today.

Boy do I hope you're right because I'd love Rittich at that price. If he goes deep into the playoffs and garners some Vezina votes though, I just don't see that happening.

[CalgaryFan1988]

I think it's in the best interest of everyone to wait and see what we have before signing any long term deals. Over the years, so many goalies have gone on hot streaks and then disappeared into oblivion. I'd rather wait and see, goalies are so unpredictable, even the best ones (Rask, Price contracts as prime examples).

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Boy do I hope you're right because I'd love Rittich at that price. If he goes deep into the playoffs and garners some Vezina votes though, I just don't see that happening.

So, how do you see this playing out?

Let's say for the sake of argument that Rittich plays well and the Flames get an appearance in the WC Finals. Let's even say that he gets a nod for the Vezina Trophy.

He is an RFA with arbitration rights. So, he is RFA offer-sheet eligible meaning he must either sign with the Flames, or sign an offer-sheet that the Flames have right-of-first-refusal to match.

Connor Hellebuyck is likely the analogue that Rittich's camp will draw comparisons to: 25-years-old, two playoff-round wins, and a Vezina nomination. The Flames are probably countering with the second-contracts awarded to Martin Jones or Matt Murray. I think in this situation the arbitrator is deciding between deals in ranging from $3.0 m–$6.0 m, but two of these goalies have a higher pedigree and level of experience than Rittich, which reduces his value—one was coming off of his second full year as a NHL starter, and the other had won two Stanley Cups. I am quite convinced he does not get close to a $6.0 AAV in arbitration, and maintain that he probably tops out at $4.0 x 2. This is likely the high-water mark for any deal the Flames sign to avoid arbitration.

This brings us to free agency. Another option which could raise Rittich's value would be by way of an RFA offer-sheet. A high offer could put the Flames in an uncomfortable position of overpaying Rittich, but with the likes of elite UFA goalies like Semyon Varlamov and Sergei Bobrovsky, and with other wildcards like Cam Talbot, Robin Lehner, Kieth Kinkaid and Mikko Koskinen all on the market I don't see that there would be significant demand to sign him to a big, long-term deal.

In short, I just don't see that there is a significant danger of costs escalating dramatically on Rittich's next contract—certainly not enough so that the Flames would be best served to sign him now.