Ongoing thread for Neal/Lucic discussion

[JJolg]

Originally Posted by pepper24

What we're seeing from Neal is that last season was an off year. 2 long playoff runs with Nashville and Vegas didn't allow him to properly train over the summer. With Flames early exit he had a full summer to rest and train.

Flames took gamble that he was in decline rather than having an offseason. With getting that wrong the Flames miss out on a legit 20+ goal scorer along with now getting an awful, slow Lucic as a replacement. Huge miss and terrible trade.

Except he wasn't scoring 20 here and didn't want to be back. Also Neal is not any faster than lucic

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

For you fancy stats guys Neal has a awful SAT% of 47.5

Sounds bad, but that would come in at 10 spot on the Flames.

Gio, Brodie, Monahan, Gaudreau all below his 47.5

Tkachuk and Lindholm are ahead of him, both at 47.78


If anyone really believes fancy stats as a leading indicator of a bad team brace yourselves for a losing streak. The Flames are in 26th spot in SAT % as a team. BSD is hiding their team play.

I don't believe in fancy stats based on shots on goal or attempted shots on goals.

Lucic at 41.67 only better than Monahan and Bennett.

I honestly thinking your jumbling up a lot of stuff into one post.

The Oilers have been a bottom five team in the league to start the season, but they have four wins so that can be masked. Their PDO is top five in the league which is the number used for "luck"

The Flames are off to a modest start on the season, but have a PDO that suggests they are where they should be. Some players are certainly off to a cold start in how they are playing, but then you'd expect that from a 2-1-1 team.

The Oilers though have won four games with terrible underlying numbers. Their PP + PK % rate is 132.3% which is the very definition of unsustainable.

Neal on his own isn't playing all that well and that's why it was pointed out. Most guys with 7 goals in a handful of games would be killing it by play, but he's not.

So really don't get where you were going.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by pepper24

What we're seeing from Neal is that last season was an off year. 2 long playoff runs with Nashville and Vegas didn't allow him to properly train over the summer. With Flames early exit he had a full summer to rest and train.

Flames took gamble that he was in decline rather than having an offseason. With getting that wrong the Flames miss out on a legit 20+ goal scorer along with now getting an awful, slow Lucic as a replacement. Huge miss and terrible trade.

He and Gary Roberts are going to have to explain how off ice summer training can turn a 4.1% shooting percentage into 47%.

Do that and they will have a huge investment opportunity in the off season.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Anyone commenting positively for Neal watch all 7 goals??? What did he have, 1 good one? The tip last night was decent I guess. Still looked like he had bricks for legs.

I know they all count, but that’s an element in sustainability.

[djsFlames]

Yeah, I'm talking a wait and see approach.

Something foreign to Edmonton as well as many here. So quick to jump to the most extreme of conclusions as always. It's a long season and those are long contracts.

Even if this ends up a loss, we're still the better team at the end of the day.

[stang]

Originally Posted by northcrunk

Pretty telling when you are a -1 with 7 points

Such a useless stat without a bunch of context. He was on the ice for 3 goals against in 4 games. No idea if his play caused any of those goals. However he scored 7 goals. Because 5 were on the power play they dont count in the +/- However they count towards winning games.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

Anyone commenting positively for Neal watch all 7 goals??? What did he have, 1 good one? The tip last night was decent I guess. Still looked like he had bricks for legs.

I know they all count, but that’s an element in sustainability.

He had a tip in the 4 goal game that was pretty good. Most of his goals have been jamming at the puck in the crease though.

They are all better goals than in Calgary except for the one from Valimaki/Gaudreau.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I don't understand why there's been so much hand-wringing and sky-is-falling-ing about a swap of depth pieces when far more important players like Gaudreau, Monahan, Lindholm, Tkachuk, Hanifin, Giordano, and Rittich have been giving fans so much more to cheer about

and Lucic has pretty much done what he was brought in to do. No one should have illusions of Lucic coming in and scoring 20. What he has done though is wake the team up on 2 different occasions through his physicality. He’s also not a liability while he’s out there, so that’s good.

Neal looks like a PP specialist with a crazy shooting percentage. Maybe that’s what Edmonton needed, but it certainly wasn’t what we needed.

I’d generally side with “whoever gets the best player wins the trade”, but neither of these players are very good - but they seem to fit different holes, and that’s what the trade was made to address for both sides.

I still don’t hate the trade, and it’s pretty clear the Flames mistake was in signing Neal in the first place. Our pro scouts have not done a great job in assessing free agents when they’re looking for players who can score, which I find funny. Tree has spoken in the past about having concerns about where the scoring will come from in the off-season, and every time he tries to address that piece via free agency it has been a disaster. The good signings have been the support players brought in to compliment, not the ageing players who he thinks he can bring in to score goals and play up the lineup.

[FlamesAddiction]

That’s how Neal has always scored goals. If it was easy, everyone would do it.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Neal scored at a decent rate everywhere he played. There was no reason in my opinion that Treliving couldn't have expected that. Plus he has a bit of a nasty edge that the team was missing. On paper, he was exactly what the team needed and I don't blame him at all for signing Neal. It just didn't work out... it happens.

I figured there was a really good chance that he would light it up on another team. Players just don't typically fall off a cliff that quickly.

I still don't mind the trade as it is likely that Neal would still be twisting in the wind if he was on the Flames. At least Lucic adds something and I actually don't think he has been as bad as people are saying. He was involved on a couple of plays that could have been decent chances if his linemates didn't blow it (looking at you last night Sam Bennett).

I think the mistake I'm looking at is not in stats. I agree it looked good on paper (so did Brouwer). I think there was some inside intelligence he needed from, for example, Vegas, regarding Neal ion and out of the room. And that info is a big reason why they cut ties so quickly.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

That’s how Neal has always scored goals. If it was easy, everyone would do it.

Almost everyone does do it (if they are put on the PP with McDavid). Tell me Chiasson scores the same elsewhere.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I don't understand why there's been so much hand-wringing and sky-is-falling-ing about a swap of depth pieces when far more important players like Gaudreau, Monahan, Lindholm, Tkachuk, Hanifin, Giordano, and Rittich have been giving fans so much more to cheer about

Because lots of people like to use CP as a platform to vent/complain. For every member who is contributing with thoughtful analysis there are two who are posting emotional reactions.

[SuperMatt18]

I think it's still as simple as both guys aren't very good.

But Neal has gotten some shooting luck so far this year (Especially on the PP) which has helped Edmonton to a 4-0 start early.

Neal:

At 5v5.

Goals: 2
Shots: 6
Shooting Percentage: 33%
Individual Expected Goals: 0.37

Corsi For: 43.75%
Expected GF%: 37.92

On the Power Play:

Goals: 5
Shots: 9
SH%: 55.6%
Expected Goals: 1.55

As usual Shooting Percentage can either mask a problem or it can make something look like more of an issue than it is. If Neal was more in line with a normal shooting percentage and had 2 goals and was -2 for the season with a 37% Expected GF% at 5v5 I doubt the fan fare would be has high as it's been.

But those goals are going in now and they might as well celebrate it now because at some point it will normalize.

[Shazam]

My prediction: James Neal finishes with 10 goals for the season.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by stang

Such a useless stat without a bunch of context. He was on the ice for 3 goals against in 4 games. No idea if his play caused any of those goals. However he scored 7 goals. Because 5 were on the power play they dont count in the +/- However they count towards winning games.

So he is basically useless 5 on 5.

[Beninho]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

I don't understand why there's been so much hand-wringing and sky-is-falling-ing about a swap of depth pieces when far more important players like Gaudreau, Monahan, Lindholm, Tkachuk, Hanifin, Giordano, and Rittich have been giving fans so much more to cheer about

Ya it’s really annoying, doesn’t help the media is flushing it down our throats with their usual Oilers are back non-sense. We will be laughing by the end of November


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[Beninho]

Originally Posted by JJolg

Except he wasn't scoring 20 here and didn't want to be back. Also Neal is not any faster than lucic

And the Oilers opposition has been even worse than the flames. I’ve seen an entire season of Neal to know how far past his prime he is. He may ride this hot streak for a little but when the checking becomes tighter and teams get into gear he will revert to what we saw last season.


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[stang]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

So he is basically useless 5 on 5.

I know you’re trying to take a shot, but I don’t care if he lights it up on the PP and barely sees ice 5v5. Way better then Lucic here who was useless all the time.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Shazam

My prediction: James Neal finishes with 10 goals for the season.

bold!

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by stang

I know you’re trying to take a shot, but I don’t care if he lights it up on the PP and barely sees ice 5v5. Way better then Lucic here who was useless all the time.

So +/- isn't a useless stat...