[CP Story] Top Six Construction: The Squeeze

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

so replacing Versteeg/Jagr with 15 / 16 goals in 2016-17 with "new guy" that is good for 23 goals is enough to make the Flames a bubble team?

This is a valid argument for needing 3 new guys that are better than last year's top 9

Frolik- Bennett and Jankowski would likely be 4th liners on all the teams that won a first round series and on some of the teams that lost in round 1.

Moving a team with a solid defense core into the top 10-11 in goal scoring isn't a bubble team. It's a division team.

You don't go from 20th to cup contention in a season, and if you try to you get a lot of egg on your face.

One player should do that given the coaching change, a powerplay specialist, and what I would consider some likely growth.

Pick a specific assumption you don't like and I'd be happy to discuss it with you.

Your fourth liners comment is misguided.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Bingo

If they think they can go from 20th to top 8 and win a cup they'd have to be more aggressive for sure.

I think it's get into the top 12 offensively and be a firm playoff spot, that takes on top six.

I disagree with a bunch you said. If you had just read your comments an not the article you'd think I had pencilled in huge growth from all the returning players on the team and that just isn't the case.

My estimate ...

Monahan +4
Gaudreau +1
Tkachuk +1
Ferrland -3
Jankowski +1
Backlund +4 (between his last two years)
Bennett +4
Frolik +0
Brouwer -1
Shore +0
Hathaway +1

That's hardly a shopping list of everything is rainbows.

That's not what I'm saying. But look at your list. You are saying you think only a single player will experience a decline in goal production. One player. Following a year where almost everything went right for the top line as far as could've been expected last September. I also share some of your optimism. I thought Monahan would score 40 last year and he would've were it not for injuries. If he has really been dealing with the wrist and hip for longer than a year I don't think it's rose colored to say he might score 45 this year of they add a bonafide top 6 player.

Having said that, expecting everyone else on the roster save the bottom line to have an improvement or stay the same in their goal totals is pretty rose coloured in my opinion. With the addition of a scorer I see gaudreaus goals declining as his point totals increase. I think backlund is in that second stage career bump where the goals may start to trail off here. If the scoring addition comes in the form of a centre like O'Reilly, Hayes, staysny etc, I don't think it is practical to suggest a goal improvement if his offensive minutes and linemates are cut as a result. Does backlund score 18 goals with Bennett and frolik on his wing getting 15 minutes a night with little PP time (because oreilly is ahead of him playing with tkachuk)? I don't think that is a reasonable expectation, even though a decline in offense in that scenario from Backlund likely leads to improved team success due to the makeup of the team and the quality of minutes he gives them.

It produces 184 goals which is still weak, moving the team from 22nd to 19th making it really clear they need to add scoring and it can't come from the bottom.

Adding a 25 goal scorer however moves them to 11th and a competitive team while only essentially moving two players down the roster ... Ferland to play with Backlund and Frolik to play with Jankowski.

you illustrate it here. Guys don't produce as much when they move.down the roster. There aren't enough minutes to go around.

Frolik is a guy who I think will definitely bounce back in the goal column regardless of where he playing. A facial injury like that will put the brakes on a season real fast.

I just don't know if it is reasonable to expect basically every other non Fringe forward to imrpove their offense when 4 to 6 of them likely see a disruotion to their minutes if the flames bring on board a legit top 6 player. ESPECIALLY if that addition is at the centre ice position.

[Bingo]

But who is moving down the roster?

I only have three players improving by 4 goals, the rest are flat coming off a season where all these players had non career average shooting percentage seasons. I see it as very conservative.

Monahan up as healthy
Backlund up to a spot between last year and the previous two years
Bennett up because I'm a fool and I predict it every year

My plan has Ferland down a single line to play with a center that tends to improve every player he plays with.

Then Frolik down as an assumption of being less productive from now going forward, but he is coming off a tragic on ice shooting percentage ... so to me down a line and up some luck and he stays flat.

I'm not predicting a tonne of inside improvement at all. Doesn't fit your narrative.

[Robbob]

IMO I don't think they need more than one. Bringing in one allows you to bump a player down to help the depth. One of the biggest issues has been secondary scoring. The 3m line disappointed and the 3rd line only had a decent month, unfortunately that was when the 1st line went through a slump.

If you can upgrade the second line, along with the progression of Tkachuk, it will help things greatly. The third has shown some flashes, they are young and lack consistency. I think if you add too many new bodies, the guys like Jankowski and Bennett may not get the time they need or should get.

[GullFoss]

A flaw with bingos analysis is assuming shifting players down the depth chart won't affect production. But it will...

For example, assume aquired player is a number 1 RW. Then ferland moves down to line two which probably reduces his production. And then Frolik moves down to line 3 which probably reduces his production.

The flames either need one super star, or two legit top 6.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by GullFoss

A flaw with bingos analysis is assuming shifting players down the depth chart won't affect production. But it will...

For example, assume aquired player is a number 1 RW. Then ferland moves down to line two which probably reduces his production. And then Frolik moves down to line 3 which probably reduces his production.

The flames either need one super star, or two legit top 6.

Answered above.

Ferland down ... gets Backlund who makes everyone better. Slight decrease.
Frolike down ... doesn't improve numbers coming off of eye poppingly unlucky on ice shooting percentage.

That's it.

[Jeff Lebowski]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I think one top 6 forward who drives offense will be enough

The rest comes from progression and development of our young guys and better lineup construction.

My line of thinking is similar to this as well. The offensive problems I saw with last year's team were two fold:

1) The Flames only had two players (on two lines) who had the skillset to carry the puck into the offensive zone and create quality scoring chances - those two were Gaudreau and Backlund.

Guys like Tkachuck and Monahan need those two guys to carry the puck in for them which allows Tkachuk and Monahan to set up and do what they do best. In my opinion they are not that dynamic player that can break down defences with their puck carrying and create chances in prime spots for others. Don't get me wrong, I love both players and Tkachuck is supremely skilled at playmaking but as everyone can see those skills are on display down low. The puck needs to get there for him.

2) The system the Flames played last year was extremely conservative. They wanted no turnovers or 'risky' plays so the puck followed a very consistent pattern when the Flames had it:

D to D pass then up to winger who would chip it in deep. The offence was dependant on the forecheck to force a turnover or retrieval and then back to the point for quick shots, hoping for tips or rebounds. It was a volume shooting offence. There was no dynamic quality to the Flames offence.

So, getting a player who could get another 20+ goals is good but really what's needed IMO is a player who can carry the puck in, create those cross ice tap ins or hold the puck, break the defence down and find the guy who gets loose and in a prime spot (one timers, walking in from the point etc)

To me, if you want three scoring lines you need three players who control the puck and can carry it in over the blue line and create plus a system that encourages those types of plays.

Maybe they already have that third line driver in Jankowski or Bennett but I think they need a guy on their line who is that shifty puck control type of player. You have to play with a ton of confidence and brio and not be scared to make mistakes or get benched for doing it. A guy with great stick handling and vision who is shifty and fast.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Bingo

But who is moving down the roster?

I only have three players improving by 4 goals, the rest are flat coming off a season where all these players had non career average shooting percentage seasons. I see it as very conservative.

Say the flames acquire Hayes. That pushes backlund down a line, which also pushes Jankowski down a line. Do both Backlund and Jankowski improve their goal totals playing 3rd and 4th line centre minutes? Does backlund score more goals playing less minutes and without tkachuk? In my opinion no. That is an unreasonable expectation. Does Jankowski improve his totals now playing with Hathaway and Lazar for 12 minutes a night? In my opinion, no, that is an unreasonable expectation.

Could those players improve their offensive totals this season if they stay where they are in the lineup? In my opinion yes, that is a reasonable expectation. The problem is though that the team improves from 22nd to 19th like you said and struggles to make the dance.

Monahan up as healthy
Backlund up to a spot between last year and the previous two years
Bennett up because I'm a fool and I predict it every year

My plan has Ferland down a single line to play with a center that tends to improve every player he plays with.

Then Frolik down as an assumption of being less productive from now going forward, but he is coming off a tragic on ice shooting percentage ... so to me down a line and up some luck and he stays flat.

I'm not predicting a tonne of inside improvement at all. Doesn't fit your narrative.

In my opinion this only works out if the flames are able to acquire a legitimate top line player in the mold of a Kessel, but what does it cost to get that guy? Only picks and defenders? I don't think so. So then does the down roster improvements for janko happen without Bennett or Ferland? Without Janko? Something will need to be subtracted from that group to get that guy which dilutes the talent in the roster for guys down the lineup to play with.

Say it costs Brodie and Bennett to get a guy. Does that enhance or detract from jankos ability to put up points and goals if he now plays between foo and Hathaway or Hathaway and mangiapane? I don't know if that scenario is reasonable for this season. Maybe it is, but if I am Tre, I'm not interested in once again hoping that is enough to get me to the promised Land.

You don't just get to grab player to take big offensive minutes for free and then also expect everyone else to improve their totals with lesser minutes or opportunity. Not unless it costs you an arm and a leg in salary that then impacta the tea ability to fill out the roster.

It is possible, but only in a scenario where you are landing an elite talent like tavares in my opinion, OR are grabbing multiple lesser talents like statsny and and Neal. Anything that has an acquisition cost other than money will have a knock-on impact to the roster and I don't think Brodie is going to get you a legit forward.

Any acquisition that comes at the cost of any roster player will hurt the team imo. Free agency, prospects or picks going out is the only way to really get the totals you're predicting imo. Tre will indeed be a wizard if that happens.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by GullFoss

A flaw with bingos analysis is assuming shifting players down the depth chart won't affect production. But it will...

For example, assume aquired player is a number 1 RW. Then ferland moves down to line two which probably reduces his production. And then Frolik moves down to line 3 which probably reduces his production.

The flames either need one super star, or two legit top 6.

But your analysis can be flawed as well.

To use your example lets say a #1 RW is acquired. That player doesn't necessarily have to play on line 1. IMO if we acquire a #1 RW then that player should be played on a different line to help spread the offence out.

Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland
Tkachuk-Jankowski/Bennett-NEW #1 RW
Bennett/Jankowski-Backlund-Frolik

IMO line 3 (which was line 2 last year) has lost a bit by losing Tkachuk but you also had Backlund and Frolik having down years. Wouldn't surprise me if their offence didn't lose too much in my scenario. Meanwhile you have an entirely new #2 line which has huge offensive potential. Certainly way more offensive potential than Bennett-Jankowski-Hathaway had for half of last year.

Really if you think about it its not hard to construct new lines where all 3 lines have way more offensive potential than Bennett-Jankowski-Hathaway had last year.

Jankowski was a rookie struggling to adapt to the NHL and get his offensive confidence at that level
Bennett had his offensive confidence totally shot.
Hathaway is a great 4th line grinder who really doesn't generate much offence.

Pretty easy to improve on that line IMO. Most of our offence will come from creating 3 lines that massively trump the offensive potential that 3rd line had last year.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

But your analysis can be flawed as well.

To use your example lets say a #1 RW is acquired. That player doesn't necessarily have to play on line 1. IMO if we acquire a #1 RW then that player should be played on a different line to help spread the offence out.

Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland
Tkachuk-Jankowski/Bennett-NEW #1 RW
Bennett/Jankowski-Backlund-Frolik

IMO line 3 (which was line 2 last year) has lost a bit by losing Tkachuk but you also had Backlund and Frolik having down years. Wouldn't surprise me if their offence didn't lose too much in my scenario. Meanwhile you have an entirely new #2 line which has huge offensive potential. Certainly way more offensive potential than Bennett-Jankowski-Hathaway had for half of last year.

Really if you think about it its not hard to construct new lines where all 3 lines have way more offensive potential than Bennett-Jankowski-Hathaway had last year.

Jankowski was a rookie struggling to adapt to the NHL and get his offensive confidence at that level
Bennett had his offensive confidence totally shot.
Hathaway is a great 4th line grinder who really doesn't generate much offence.

Pretty easy to improve on that line IMO. Most of our offence will come from creating 3 lines that massively trump the offensive potential that 3rd line had last year.

Is it possible to acquire a legitimate first oinr right wing without subtracting one of Bennett, ferland, backlund or Jankowski?

For a team without a pick until the 4th round this year, I don't think it is.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Is it possible to acquire a legitimate first oinr right wing without subtracting one of Bennett, ferland, backlund or Jankowski?

For a team without a pick until the 4th round this year, I don't think it is.

Easily. Hamilton fetches you a #1 RW no question. Probably a #1 RW+

Brodie may fetch you a top two line RW straight up. Brodie + Fox as an example easily gets you a #1 RW IMO.

Treliving has the assets to get anything done he wants. Now we may not want to move Hamilton which is fair. But I think there's enough assets to get a #1 RW and it will up to him to figure out what the best way of improving the team is without subtracting too much from other areas.

I'd be skeptical that he's shopping Bennett, Ferland, Backlund or Jankowski. I think they're looking to keep all of them. Makes the most sense to move one or more of Brodie, Stone, Fox, Kylington, Andersson to solve the additional top 6 forward issue. Defense is where we are deepest so subtracting there hurts the least. It hurts the least is we subtract at most 1 veteran defenseman and 1 of the prospects not named Valimaki (I think Valimaki is untouchable personally.)

Brodie, Stone, Fox and Kylington are the most expendable assets we have to move IMO to acquire one more top 6 forward.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by transplant99

I wonder if management isn't thinking that Gawdin may be the guy to come from within to add some scoring punch in a 3rd or 4th line role, and then only need to go after 1 big fish.

If they are, they shouldn't be running the team. Pinning your hopes on an over-ager who had a big scoring year is a recipe for disaster. Gawdin's skating just isn't at the NHL level. Also don't see a shot that will beat NHL goaltenders consistently.

Hayes or Neal would fill a huge need as would Stastny/O'Reilly albeit at various different costs.

Hayes and Neal, yes. We need a winger who can score and compliment what we already have. Stastny and O'Reilly, no. I don't see them being an answer to the problems facing the team. The Flames have good depth down the middle, so adding another center does not address the most pressing need. This would be the ultimate Treliving move though. We were deep on the blueline last off season, and he made a deal for another blueliner, ignoring the gaping hole on the right side. We're deep at center this year, so it only makes sense to deal for another center, and still ignore that hole on the right side. Flames are gonna to Flame?

[transplant99]

[QUOTE=New Era;6710825]

If they are, they shouldn't be running the team. Pinning your hopes on an over-ager who had a big scoring year is a recipe for disaster. Gawdin's skating just isn't at the NHL level. Also don't see a shot that will beat NHL goaltenders consistently.

Skating is one thing that can be improved outside of camp and regular season.

His shot is fine. Im not suggesting he play any more than a complimentary role, and as such his skillset seems pretty standard for what the team needs at the cost it needs to be at.

Again Im just wondering if the management team sees him the same way afterall they got to watch him a TON the last 2 months.

Hayes and Neal, yes. We need a winger who can score and compliment what we already have. Stastny and O'Reilly, no. I don't see them being an answer to the problems facing the team. The Flames have good depth down the middle, so adding another center does not address the most pressing need. This would be the ultimate Treliving move though. We were deep on the blueline last off season, and he made a deal for another blueliner, ignoring the gaping hole on the right side. We're deep at center this year, so it only makes sense to deal for another center, and still ignore that hole on the right side. Flames are gonna to Flame?

Disagree...we are not "deep" at C. Backlund would be much better suited as a 3rd line checking winger instead of a guy on a scoring line. It was made entirely evident last year that Tkachuk was the guy who drove offense with that group and nothing has changed that way.

You add a guy like ROR or Stastny to anchor that 2nd line with Tkachuk on the left and a Ferland or whoever on the right side...you have slotted everyone else in a better spot, including Jankowski who was at best inconsistent last year although he certainly looks like he "could" be a decent 3rd line guy, but as a 4th line guy would have this team able to roll 4 lines for most of a game.

Of course this is me assuming that Bennett is not progressing to the point he can play 2nd line minutes and be effective (as all evidence thus far has shown) so a need still exists there.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Easily. Hamilton fetches you a #1 RW no question. Probably a #1 RW+

Brodie may fetch you a top two line RW straight up. Brodie + Fox as an example easily gets you a #1 RW IMO.

Treliving has the assets to get anything done he wants. Now we may not want to move Hamilton which is fair. But I think there's enough assets to get a #1 RW and it will up to him to figure out what the best way of improving the team is without subtracting too much from other areas.

I'd be skeptical that he's shopping Bennett, Ferland, Backlund or Jankowski. I think they're looking to keep all of them. Makes the most sense to move one or more of Brodie, Stone, Fox, Kylington, Andersson to solve the additional top 6 forward issue. Defense is where we are deepest so subtracting there hurts the least. It hurts the least is we subtract at most 1 veteran defenseman and 1 of the prospects not named Valimaki (I think Valimaki is untouchable personally.)

Brodie, Stone, Fox and Kylington are the most expendable assets we have to move IMO to acquire one more top 6 forward.

The agree with a lot of this. Don't think Tre is shopping any of ferland, Bennett backlund or Janko. I think valimaki is basically untouchable. I think Hamilton gets you a legit top line player.

In fact, I think dealing Hamilton for scoring help is the best and likeliest scenario we see from the flames at the draft.

But I also don't see that as being enough of an addition without landing a Marquee UFA as well.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

The agree with a lot of this. Don't think Tre is shopping any of ferland, Bennett backlund or Janko. I think valimaki is basically untouchable. I think Hamilton gets you a legit top line player.

In fact, I think dealing Hamilton for scoring help is the best and likeliest scenario we see from the flames at the draft.

But I also don't see that as being enough of an addition without landing a Marquee UFA as well.

RE Ferland. The 960 guys this past week we're bringing up Ferland as trade bait and were selling the idea he may be the best FW to offer up in trade.

He is UFA next year, teams would value his cap hit. There's a chance they cannot re-sign him next off season anyways. It's a lot more in depth than I am saying but it makes sense. Even then, he could be great Deadline day bait too.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by dammage79

RE Ferland. The 960 guys this past week we're bringing up Ferland as trade bait and were selling the idea he may be the best FW to offer up in trade.

He is UFA next year, teams would value his cap hit. There's a chance they cannot re-sign him next off season anyways. It's a lot more in depth than I am saying but it makes sense. Even then, he could be great Deadline day bait too.

I think he’s an important player to keep. Ferland, Bennett and Tkachuk are our only powerforwards. We can’t really afford to trade any of them IMO. Smaller finesse players like Gaudreau, Mangiapane and Phillips need to be complimented and offset by bigger, stronger, more physical players who still have offensive skill. You need that balance IMO. Unless Tuulola really comes out of nowhere we have no upcoming young players who bring what Ferland, Tkachuk and Bennett bring.

Even though Ferland is a complimentary powerforward, I think he’s a pretty important piece to retain. Hopefully we’re resigning him.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I think he’s an important player to keep. Ferland, Bennett and Tkachuk are our only powerforwards. We can’t really afford to trade any of them IMO. Smaller finesse players like Gaudreau, Mangiapane and Phillips need to be complimented and offset by bigger, stronger, more physical players who still have offensive skill. You need that balance IMO. Unless Tuulola really comes out of nowhere we have no upcoming young players who bring what Ferland, Tkachuk and Bennett bring.

Even though Ferland is a complimentary powerforward, I think he’s a pretty important piece to retain. Hopefully we’re resigning him.

Well that depends on how the roster is built this year. How much cap space will be needed to re-sign the more important player in Tkachuk.

How good of a season does Ferland have, he can easily price himself out of the market. All those points were brought up on the fan. The make a better argument than I can right now.

[Freddy]

As a fan I enjoy the hope that a couple of key additions can bump my team into the upper tier of contenders, but I feel the Flames have already been employing that strategy for decades and we continue to mire in mediocrity. I think we’re as deep organizationally as we’ve ever been (post Cup years) and I’d prefer to save cap space & assets to not bring in another vet and give the ice time to our younger emerging players as an investment in building the championship team from within. Are we going to be a bubble team again this year? Probably, but if we continue to grow from within I think it gives the Flames the best foundation for sustained contending in the future and leaves cap space to add a scoring winger or two at the deadline if things are looking promising at that time.
I appreciate Bingo’s analysis and would welcome a 25 goal winger, but I think patience might be the best non move for long term success.

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Top Six Construction: The Squeeze

Had a good look at how the 2017-18 Flames lined up with all NHL teams, playoff teams and elite teams when it comes to forward goal scoring.

Next I projected next year and then came to the conclusion that the team only needs to add one top 3-4 forward to make things work.

I push them from 22nd overall in forward scoring to 13th and within two goals of 11th.

Agree with the projections?
Is one forward enough?

I agree completely. That’s why I’ve been advocating just signing JVR, and then upgrading Brodie and then going aggressively after landing Grubauer’s negotiating rights (since we can’t offer-sheet him).

That’s literally all (lol) we need to do this summer.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Say the flames acquire Hayes. That pushes backlund down a line, which also pushes Jankowski down a line. Do both Backlund and Jankowski improve their goal totals playing 3rd and 4th line centre minutes? Does backlund score more goals playing less minutes and without tkachuk? In my opinion no. That is an unreasonable expectation. Does Jankowski improve his totals now playing with Hathaway and Lazar for 12 minutes a night? In my opinion, no, that is an unreasonable expectation.

Could those players improve their offensive totals this season if they stay where they are in the lineup? In my opinion yes, that is a reasonable expectation. The problem is though that the team improves from 22nd to 19th like you said and struggles to make the dance.


In my opinion this only works out if the flames are able to acquire a legitimate top line player in the mold of a Kessel, but what does it cost to get that guy? Only picks and defenders? I don't think so. So then does the down roster improvements for janko happen without Bennett or Ferland? Without Janko? Something will need to be subtracted from that group to get that guy which dilutes the talent in the roster for guys down the lineup to play with.

Say it costs Brodie and Bennett to get a guy. Does that enhance or detract from jankos ability to put up points and goals if he now plays between foo and Hathaway or Hathaway and mangiapane? I don't know if that scenario is reasonable for this season. Maybe it is, but if I am Tre, I'm not interested in once again hoping that is enough to get me to the promised Land.

You don't just get to grab player to take big offensive minutes for free and then also expect everyone else to improve their totals with lesser minutes or opportunity. Not unless it costs you an arm and a leg in salary that then impacta the tea ability to fill out the roster.

It is possible, but only in a scenario where you are landing an elite talent like tavares in my opinion, OR are grabbing multiple lesser talents like statsny and and Neal. Anything that has an acquisition cost other than money will have a knock-on impact to the roster and I don't think Brodie is going to get you a legit forward.

Any acquisition that comes at the cost of any roster player will hurt the team imo. Free agency, prospects or picks going out is the only way to really get the totals you're predicting imo. Tre will indeed be a wizard if that happens.

Number one I don't see it as a center, I don't think it's needed.

Monahan is improving every year and is young and a sniper. Backlund is an elite third or a middling second, and then you have two other guys that could evolve into 2nd or 3rd line centers in Jankowski and Bennett.

I don't see a point in moving a center in and having one of them on the fourth line.

If it happens you convert both to wingers, but it wouldn't be my call.