[CP Story] Top Six Construction: The Squeeze

[bigrangy]

1 Tavares or else 1 ROR type and 1 Frolik level guy would be what the Flames need for championship offensive depth

But they could probably get by with a Hoffman level guy and some internal growth assuming GG was the big problem and the players aren't actually black holes of suck outside John/Sean/Tkachuk

[Willi Plett]

I voted 2. Bringing in just one might address number of goals but doesn’t address the overall make up issues. 1 top 6 sure but add to that a 2nd player who can play line 3 rw. 2 right handed shots with size speed and the requisite scoring.

Looking at the analysis we are missing a 2, 7, and 9. Need a 2 and 7 and then more internally. I also believe Ferland puts up less with a new addition pushing him down.

[David Struch]

Adding three new forwards to the top six would be ideal.

Gaudreau - Monahan - Neal
Tkachuk - Hayes - Van Reimsdyk
Ferland - Backlund - Frolik
Bennett - Jankowski - Shore

or

Gaudreau - Monahan - Niederreiter
Tkachuk - O'Reilly - Perron
Ferland - Backlund - Frolik
Bennett - Jankowski - Shore

[Macindoc]

I voted one, but it has to be a legitimate first line player, either a centre or a right wing.

If we get a top tier right wing, then for the second line, I think it would be worth trying Bennett on the off wing with Janko and Tkachuk; being with energetic, skilled linemates who can keep up with him could significantly elevate his game. Also, being on the off wing could encourage him to pass and shoot more rather than just try to carry the puck all the time, and make him more connected to his linemates.

A third line of Backlund, Ferland and Mangiapane would have a nice mix of playmaking, shooting ability and defensive responsibility.

For the fourth line, I would reach for the fountain of youth, energy and speed to press opponents in their own end, probably with Dube, Klimchuk and Lazar (could substitute Frolik for Lazar, slower but more defensively responsible). I know that's two rookies on the same line, but I think Klimchuk is ideally suited to a 4th line and is one of the Flames' more mature prospects.

Of course, if the impossible happened and the Flames signed Tavares, I would take a different approach. I would put Tavares with Gaudreau and Bennett, Monahan with Tkachuk and Ferland (perhaps a second line almost as good as last year's first line?), convert Janko to a right wing on the flank of Backlund and Mangiapane, and have the same fourth line as above.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Top Six Construction: The Squeeze

Had a good look at how the 2017-18 Flames lined up with all NHL teams, playoff teams and elite teams when it comes to forward goal scoring.

Next I projected next year and then came to the conclusion that the team only needs to add one top 3-4 forward to make things work.

I push them from 22nd overall in forward scoring to 13th and within two goals of 11th.

Agree with the projections?
Is one forward enough?

If you bring in a 23 goal scorer I don't think it's realistic to assume everyone else scores at the same rate despite being pushed down one slot. Players are capable of scoring at a certain rate but it still depends on ice time and PP time. If you expect them to produce the same with diminished opportunity then you're implicitly assuming they will improve a bit. Which is fine, just not an apples to apple comparison. I'm more with Jiri that they need two infusions of talent (or growth), from within or without, so that the average production is better.

[Snuffleupagus]

Gaudreau - Monahan - New RW'er
Tkachuk - New Center - Ferland
Bennett - Backlund - Frolik

Team needs a RW shooter and a slick new center.

Neal and Tavares will do.

[activeStick]

A lot needs to go right for the Flames if they're going to improve on their goal scoring. History and reality is always the best indicator and I just don't think the Flames will improve that much by adding 1 player up front.

[btimbit]

One if it's a legit 1st liner, two if they're 2nd liners

[Lanny_McDonald]

One. Then it is a matter of having players slotted into the proper roles, and give them opportunity to succeed in those positions. Bringing in a top line RW will allow the pieces to shake out accordingly, putting guys in roles they should be in.

Gaudreau-Monahan-New Guy

This seems like the no-brainer and the natural landing spot for that new RW and allow the other pieces to settle.

Tkachuk-Jankowski-Bennett

This should be the second line next year. You can flip the wings around for comfort, but this should be the mix. If Sam Bennett is going to come around he needs two gifted offensive players, and Tkachuk and Jankowski are probably the third and forth most gifted players in the squad. Play them together, and in the second line capacity, and success will follow. Playing Jankowski lower than this is probably a massive waste of talent, so give these guys a chance and watch all three players soar.

Ferland-Backlund-Frolik

This is the third line this team has been waiting for. Three guys that can play both sides of the puck with a high degree of success. If Backlund really is this Selke nominee, this is where he is going to be the most successful. The chemistry with Backlund is with Frolik more so than anyone else in the team, as they compliment each other extremely well. Ferland provides a guy that can play tough and still score.

Lazar-Shore-Brouwer

And the rest. Not sure about this mix. I like the pieces individually, but I’m not sure they are going to work as a unit. Brouwer’s lack of speed concerns me and makes him a real square peg.

Klimchuk-Dube-Mangipane

The extras and first call ups by position IMO. I actually don’t mind this mix as a line either. The important thing here is that the Flames have three guys that can play up and down the the lineup, filling in where needed.

If the Bennett experiment fails, the options are still there to make a minor change and still see success without ripping things to pieces. The alternative lineup to me would be the following.

Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland
Tkachuk-Jankowski-New Guy
Bennett-Backlund-Frolik
Lazar-Shore-Brouwer

Still a solid lineup.

[EldrickOnIce]

Agree with directly above ^
Solid lineup.

Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland
Tkachuk-Jankowski-New Guy
Bennett-Backlund-Frolik
Lazar-Shore-Brouwer

New guy needs to be legit.
There also needs to be no injuries.

[red sky]

Any thoughts on Versteeg on the 4th line and 2nd PP?

He has skills but is not fleet of foot which is an obvious issue of this team.

[the_only_turek_fan]

I want to throw out a name out there. Not a guy to solve the 23 goal problem but a guy that would come cheap and probably under a million dollars.

Maybe look at Nail Yakupov to play on the big line?

Then move the new 23 goal scorer down to line 2 with Tkachuk.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I don't think one player is enough.

There is the notion that a trickle down effect will happen with the addition of a top 6 player to play with Monahan and gaudreau. I don't think this is necessarily accurate or predictable as a guy like ferland or backlund in my opinion are not as productive without their finishing counterparts. in my opinion this is a component limiting the impact of tkachuk, his linemates aren't good enough to help him be that impact 35 goal 70 point player, but the options are limited right now to get him to be that player without hurting the overall fortunes of the team.

For example what is the knock-on impact of ferland being separated from gaudreau and Monahan? Less overall team success in my opinion.

The goal needs to be assembling a team that is likely to be a top 10 offensive team. A team you can look at on paper and suggest barring injury there are 3-4 candidates very likely to hit the 70 point threshold. The flames really only have one of those players right now. The knock-on impact of a Ryan O'Reilly or maybe even a Skinner impact is potentially turning 1 or 2 more guys into that 70 point threshold, but that still means the bottom 6 needs an addition in offense.

In an example where Skinner is acquired and pushes ferland down the lineup for example, is ferland going to score 20 with backlund as his center? In my opinion that is not likely, which means the problem of depth scoring largely remains.

I don't think you can say internal development will or is even likely to bridge that gap. I don't think you can expect Jankowski and Bennett to produce much more offense with Frolik on their wing as compared to Hathaway, and that's the problem. A top 6 addition doesn't open up more pp time for Bennett or ferland, it likely limits it, which means offensive growth from them will have to come at even strength, and I don't think frolik really provides enough impact in that regard.

To get the trickle down requires moving essentially the entire 2nd line down. Frolik/backlund/Bennett could be that third line option again, but to do that means bringing in a center and a winger who are legit top 6 players; tough task.

To be a legitimate top 10 team in scoring means acquiring a player like Skinner and O'Reilly so that a top 6 injury doesn't completely gut the teams offense like happened last year.

Barring that, you need at least one of those types of players and then a top tier bottom 6 player, and everything to go right. Like you said in your article, I don't think the flames can bank on that for the second season in a row.

If the flames want to win the expectation needs to be a top 10 offensive team next year, and that means adding ~50 goals to the roster that aren't there now. Maybe they don't end up finishing top 10 due to a variety of reasons but they need to have that capacity based on the most recent history of the players assembled on paper. 2x 30 goal scorers, 2x25 goal scorers, 3x 15-20 goal scorers.

Tall order to address that in one off season.

If they think they can go from 20th to top 8 and win a cup they'd have to be more aggressive for sure.

I think it's get into the top 12 offensively and be a firm playoff spot, that takes on top six.

I disagree with a bunch you said. If you had just read your comments an not the article you'd think I had pencilled in huge growth from all the returning players on the team and that just isn't the case.

My estimate ...

Monahan +4
Gaudreau +1
Tkachuk +1
Ferrland -3
Jankowski +1
Backlund +4 (between his last two years)
Bennett +4
Frolik +0
Brouwer -1
Shore +0
Hathaway +1

That's hardly a shopping list of everything is rainbows.

It produces 184 goals which is still weak, moving the team from 22nd to 19th making it really clear they need to add scoring and it can't come from the bottom.

Adding a 25 goal scorer however moves them to 11th and a competitive team while only essentially moving two players down the roster ... Ferland to play with Backlund and Frolik to play with Jankowski.

Backlund has a history of elevating players so I don't see a big shrink in Ferland (hence the -3), and I didn't boost Frolik at all playing with two young player despite having some of the worst shooting luck in the NHL last year.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Say the scenario is Skinner, highly likely in my mind.

From all reports Skinner and Peters weren't on the same page, can't see him coming at all.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by the_only_turek_fan

I want to throw out a name out there. Not a guy to solve the 23 goal problem but a guy that would come cheap and probably under a million dollars.

Maybe look at Nail Yakupov to play on the big line?

Then move the new 23 goal scorer down to line 2 with Tkachuk.

[transplant99]

I wonder if management isn't thinking that Gawdin may be the guy to come from within to add some scoring punch in a 3rd or 4th line role, and then only need to go after 1 big fish.

Hayes or Neal would fill a huge need as would Stastny/O'Reilly albeit at various different costs.

[Bingo]

People hate when I bring up luck, shot attempts, scoring chances or shooting percentage but there are a lot of pretty odd numbers on the team last year.

Now they have a coaching change, and an associate with pp savvy to not only bring up the man advantage but hopefully confidence that brings a swagger back to five on five as well.

GMs have to find that healthy mix between doing to much after an odd year, and assuming that the odd year itself is the problem and do nothing.

Because of that I think they need a big boost (player), but not an overall of two or three and I think Treliving is thinking the same.

Will see....

[the_only_turek_fan]

Originally Posted by transplant99

I wonder if management isn't thinking that Gawdin may be the guy to come from within to add some scoring punch in a 3rd or 4th line role, and then only need to go after 1 big fish.

Hayes or Neal would fill a huge need as would Stastny/O'Reilly albeit at various different costs.

The only issue with Neal, JVR, and Perron is possibly a 6-7 year term. Those deals won't look good in a couple of years.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Bingo

From all reports Skinner and Peters weren't on the same page, can't see him coming at all.

Did not know this.

Also just checked and Skinner has full NMC this year so you are probably right.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Why do your posts seem like they are in morris code?

So what exactly is your argument?

I mentioned injuries.

A line up of ...

Gaudreau - Monahan - new guy
Tkachuk - Backlund - Ferland
Bennett - Jankowski - Frolik

wouldn't result in ice time losses for any player but Frolik from my estimation. Evolution of young players and having a defensive sound player like Frolik could do wonders for Bennett and Jankowski.

You don't seem to be saying anything

so replacing Versteeg/Jagr with 15 / 16 goals in 2016-17 with "new guy" that is good for 23 goals is enough to make the Flames a bubble team?

This is a valid argument for needing 3 new guys that are better than last year's top 9

Frolik- Bennett and Jankowski would likely be 4th liners on all the teams that won a first round series and on some of the teams that lost in round 1.