Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community
Old 08-09-2019, 04:25 PM   #181
blankall
Ate 100 Treadmills
 
blankall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nadal Fan View Post
First forecast for Joker has been released and is projected right now at $175 mill total after a $77mill opening. I still think that's too low, I'm expecting at least $200 mill.

https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-forecast-joker/
That just domestic right? Which would presumably translate into $500-600 million total.

That's a huge amount of money for a film with a $55 million budget.
blankall is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 08-10-2019, 06:55 AM   #182
Nadal Fan
Franchise Player
 
Nadal Fan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blankall View Post
That just domestic right? Which would presumably translate into $500-600 million total.

That's a huge amount of money for a film with a $55 million budget.
Yup just domestic prediction. I'm not sure how much appeal this movie will have in Asia to be honest.
Nadal Fan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-01-2019, 07:28 AM   #183
Nadal Fan
Franchise Player
 
Nadal Fan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Exp:
Default

I'm changing my prediction for Joker. After the initial reviews and hype I'm thinking $300 million in North America alone. If Suicide Squad could do that I see no reason why this can't match it.
Nadal Fan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-01-2019, 08:15 AM   #184
Scorch
First Line Centre
 
Scorch's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nadal Fan View Post
I'm changing my prediction for Joker. After the initial reviews and hype I'm thinking $300 million in North America alone. If Suicide Squad could do that I see no reason why this can't match it.
Suicide squad had Margot Robbie/Harley Quinn and boatloads of marketing ad dollars behind it

This joker movie had none of those
Scorch is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-01-2019, 08:29 AM   #185
Locke
Franchise Player
 
Locke's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Income Tax Central
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scorch View Post
Suicide squad had Margot Robbie/Harley Quinn and boatloads of marketing ad dollars behind it

This joker movie had none of those
But....it might actually be good...
__________________
The Beatings Shall Continue Until Morale Improves!

This Post Has Been Distilled for the Eradication of Seemingly Incurable Sadness.

If you are flammable and have legs, you are never blocking a Fire Exit. - Mitch Hedberg
Locke is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-01-2019, 08:30 AM   #186
Nadal Fan
Franchise Player
 
Nadal Fan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scorch View Post
Suicide squad had Margot Robbie/Harley Quinn and boatloads of marketing ad dollars behind it

This joker movie had none of those
Squad also had a ton of bad reviews and bad good will. People are praising Phoenix for his performance and the Joker is the most iconic, popular villain in comics. Plus comic book movies have never been more popular
Nadal Fan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-01-2019, 09:27 AM   #187
blankall
Ate 100 Treadmills
 
blankall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nadal Fan View Post
I'm changing my prediction for Joker. After the initial reviews and hype I'm thinking $300 million in North America alone. If Suicide Squad could do that I see no reason why this can't match it.
Suicide Squad was a big dumb action movie, aimed at a general audience. It had a pg-13 rating and a $175 million budget.

Joker is an entirely different beast. Joker has a $55 million budget, is aimed at a much narrower audience, and has a hard R rating.

I hope you're right. I'd like to see more studios attempt to tackle the non action side of comic book stories.
blankall is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-01-2019, 11:28 AM   #188
Scorch
First Line Centre
 
Scorch's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nadal Fan View Post
Squad also had a ton of bad reviews and bad good will. People are praising Phoenix for his performance and the Joker is the most iconic, popular villain in comics. Plus comic book movies have never been more popular
And?

Superman is the most iconic superhero in comics. Release a movie based on him right now and it would breakeven or marginally profit

People get tired of seeing the same onscreen characters. Superman, Batman and Joker is no exception. Not counting the tv series Gotham’s joker, Joker is portrayed by a 4th actor in the movies. He’s overdone

Harley Quinn is a bigger draw. She’s a fresh, new comic book character that obviously appeals to men and young women want to emulate her because of the attention she gets from men.

Unfortunately it’s not always the good storytelling that wins big at the box office. You look at previous movies which has won best picture at the academy awards and many of them haven’t been huge box office successes. Then you look at Dwayne the Rock Johnson and the movies he’s in and they’ve all raked in big money. Is he a really good actor? No, but the guy is the most charismatic person in the world and masses are willing to pay good money to see him.

You can’t compare Suicide Squad with Joker. Like it or not, one movie has a huge marketing draw and the other is based on a stale character
Scorch is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-01-2019, 11:36 AM   #189
Coach
Franchise Player
 
Coach's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Vancouver
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scorch View Post
And?

Superman is the most iconic superhero in comics. Release a movie based on him right now and it would breakeven or marginally profit

People get tired of seeing the same onscreen characters. Superman, Batman and Joker is no exception. Not counting the tv series Gotham’s joker, Joker is portrayed by a 4th actor in the movies. He’s overdone

Harley Quinn is a bigger draw. She’s a fresh, new comic book character that obviously appeals to men and young women want to emulate her because of the attention she gets from men.

Unfortunately it’s not always the good storytelling that wins big at the box office. You look at previous movies which has won best picture at the academy awards and many of them haven’t been huge box office successes. Then you look at Dwayne the Rock Johnson and the movies he’s in and they’ve all raked in big money. Is he a really good actor? No, but the guy is the most charismatic person in the world and masses are willing to pay good money to see him.

You can’t compare Suicide Squad with Joker. Like it or not, one movie has a huge marketing draw and the other is based on a stale character
Or because she's a badass female antagonist, of which there are very few.

But I agree the DCEU would do better to focus on her as the Joker of that universe. The shots of her hideout on Birds of Prey look great. There's no reason she can't take the place of the insane anarchist. And she's a bankable star who seems to enjoy the role. They'd do well to build the world around her. And building from the enemies out to the heroes, rather than the reverse, would at least be an interesting new direction. Batman's rogues gallery is extensive and full of great recognizable characters. And actors like being villains. I think you could get a lot of good people on board this way.
__________________
Coach is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-01-2019, 01:31 PM   #190
PepsiFree
Participant
Participant
 
PepsiFree's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Exp:
Default

I think the marks against Joker’s potential box office are pretty obvious, but I don’t think they involve the character itself.

The positives:
- It’s a comic book movie, so automatic audience
- Phoenix is apparently phenomenal in it (though there are some suggestions of over-acting)

The negatives:
- It’s rated R
- It’s apparently very dark and disturbing/depressing
- It’s violent

Because of it’s rating, though, the comic book advantage is immediately cut down significantly. No kids or families. It being dark and disturbing probably limits re-watches and limits it’s word-of-mouth audience.

Looking at the performance of R rated movies at the box office, there are 17 in history that have exceeded $200M domestic. Most of them are funny, or have a high entertainment value. A few are horror movies, which have their own embedded audience (people love being scared). And a few are dramas with a wide audience.

The closest comparable I can see is Logan, which made $226M. It had a lot of the same things going for it and a lot of the same negatives, with the major difference being that instead of being a depressing/disturbing character study, it was an action movie. It was well received (better scores on RT and Meta as it stands now), had random bits of Oscar talk, and all the things that supposedly make the Joker special.

So I don’t know. $300M seems very high. It has few of the things that helps films hit that mark, and plenty of things that stops them from doing it.

Even looking at Revenant, which was another dark, rated R, acting tour-de-force, with a more bankable star and a ton more awards hype. It hit like $170M. I don’t think “but it’s from a comic book” adds $130M to that number when you take kids and families out of the picture.
PepsiFree is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-01-2019, 01:41 PM   #191
OutOfTheCube
Franchise Player
 
OutOfTheCube's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Exp:
Default

There's also release date -- no October release has ever grossed $300M. Only a handful have ever crossed $200M.

A performance similar to Venom or Logan would be very good. But like you said, both those movies had more things working for them (action movies, Marvel connection, built in audiences). $300M would be unprecedented. I really wouldn't expect it to happen.
OutOfTheCube is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-01-2019, 02:21 PM   #192
Scorch
First Line Centre
 
Scorch's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach View Post
Or because she's a badass female antagonist, of which there are very few.
Like Catwoman? we know how her solo movie panned out in the box office

It’s a lot to do with Harley’s crazy hot chick gimmick being a new character to audiences and Margot Robbie starring as her
Scorch is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-01-2019, 03:01 PM   #193
Nadal Fan
Franchise Player
 
Nadal Fan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2017
Exp:
Default

Catwoman is one of the 10 worst superhero films of all time. Had it been good, I think it would have done good at the box office.
Nadal Fan is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Nadal Fan For This Useful Post:
Old 09-01-2019, 07:53 PM   #194
Coach
Franchise Player
 
Coach's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Vancouver
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scorch View Post
Like Catwoman? we know how her solo movie panned out in the box office

It’s a lot to do with Harley’s crazy hot chick gimmick being a new character to audiences and Margot Robbie starring as her
Robbie starring is #1. She's great as the character.

Young women do not want to emulate her "because of the attention she gets from men." Women like her because she's a cool female character. Actually, a lot of men like her because she's a cool character. I hope most. Shes hot because literally every female (and most male) comic book character is hot. Catwoman starred the most attractive and bankable movie star on the planet at the time. They changed the character completely, the movie was horrendous, and she was admittedly terrible in the terrible movie. That's why it bombed.

By your logic of "men think she's hot, and women... think men think she's hot" Catwoman should have crushed. Both of those existed there (except the second part, because that's not a thing).

She's bankable because she a cool fun character played by one of the biggest stars on the planet.
__________________
Coach is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-01-2019, 09:08 PM   #195
Cecil Terwilliger
That Crazy Guy at the Bus Stop
 
Cecil Terwilliger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Springfield Penitentiary
Exp:
Default

Joker got an 8 minute standing ovation at its Venice Film Fest premiere.
Cecil Terwilliger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-02-2019, 09:44 AM   #196
Scorch
First Line Centre
 
Scorch's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2017
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Coach View Post
Robbie starring is #1. She's great as the character.

Young women do not want to emulate her "because of the attention she gets from men." Women like her because she's a cool female character. Actually, a lot of men like her because she's a cool character. I hope most. Shes hot because literally every female (and most male) comic book character is hot. Catwoman starred the most attractive and bankable movie star on the planet at the time. They changed the character completely, the movie was horrendous, and she was admittedly terrible in the terrible movie. That's why it bombed.

By your logic of "men think she's hot, and women... think men think she's hot" Catwoman should have crushed. Both of those existed there (except the second part, because that's not a thing).

She's bankable because she a cool fun character played by one of the biggest stars on the planet.
Timing is also everything, so “by my logic” it definitely would’ve crushed, had a solo movie been released 2 years after Batman Returns when every male had the hots for Michelle Pfeiffer in a cat suit. By 2004, the Catwoman character was old news and this also goes back to my previous point about stale characters
Scorch is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-02-2019, 10:04 AM   #197
blankall
Ate 100 Treadmills
 
blankall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scorch View Post
Timing is also everything, so “by my logic” it definitely would’ve crushed, had a solo movie been released 2 years after Batman Returns when every male had the hots for Michelle Pfeiffer in a cat suit. By 2004, the Catwoman character was old news and this also goes back to my previous point about stale characters
Not sure if I see your point about stale characters. Spiderman has had the most recent reboots, yet continues to bank.

Pfeiffer played Catwoman in 1992. This was a hit, and her performance was praised. 12 years later Halle Berry stars in the Catwoman movie that flops.

This has a lot more to do with Catwoman being unwatchable garbage than the character getting stale. People will go see reboots as long as the movies are good.

People will go to see the Joker, because it looks good.
blankall is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-02-2019, 01:40 PM   #198
KTrain
ALL ABOARD!
 
KTrain's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Exp:
Default

I think you're a little too close to this one Nadal. I don't think there's any way it breaks $300 million domestically. There are too many things going against it.
  • Rated R
  • October release
  • Not enough marketing hype
  • No Phoenix movie has ever made over $300 (he's not as "bankable" as people say)

I'd love to be wrong but I don't think it's going to happen.
KTrain is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-02-2019, 01:45 PM   #199
Strange Brew
Franchise Player
 
Strange Brew's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Exp:
Default

There’s not the marketing $’s behind this movie like there was with Suicide Squad. No doubt it will be extremely profitable but I’d be shocked if it approaches $300 million.
Strange Brew is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-02-2019, 07:53 PM   #200
blankall
Ate 100 Treadmills
 
blankall's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Exp:
Default

Apparently joker is potentially tracking for a $100 million opener. There aren't a lot of presales here and positive word of mouth could see it making it to that $300 million mark, which would be incredible for the budget.
blankall is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 01:26 PM.

Calgary Flames
2023-24




Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright Calgarypuck 2021