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Old 10-29-2020, 12:17 PM   #181
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I just love reading this guys' articles, and he sums it up so much better than I ever could.

https://achemistinlangley.net/2020/0...et-for-canada/
Thanks for this, great simple summary.
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Old 10-29-2020, 02:28 PM   #182
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Yes, and GM makes electric cars. Kodak made digital cameras. Xerox made computers. Think of the big names in any innovative industry, they are so rarely behemoths that successfully made a massive transition.
past performance may not reflect accurately potential future performance
At this point it's evolution: evolve or die.

In Alberta I'd say there's a lot of incentive to evolve.
Yet at the same time it's far too early to throw in the towel too.
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Old 10-29-2020, 02:59 PM   #183
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GE makes everything
Yes. Thats why they're 'General Electric.'

If its generally electric they make it!
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Old 10-29-2020, 03:16 PM   #184
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GE makes everything

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Old 10-29-2020, 05:38 PM   #185
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GE - large compressors for compressor stations, planes, submarines, etc.
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Old 10-29-2020, 05:55 PM   #186
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Originally Posted by Tron_fdc View Post
I just love reading this guys' articles, and he sums it up so much better than I ever could.

https://achemistinlangley.net/2020/0...et-for-canada/
If only every "environmentalist" in this country was as smart and as pragmatic as this guy.

Demand for hydrocarbons will proceed decades into the future. Even if you accept the most bearish forecast of oil demand peaking 10 years from now, natural gas will keep growing for many years after that and Alberta has a facktonne of that too. People who keep saying "the world has changed" I think just like saying it to sound profound but fundamentally, when it comes to energy demand, nothing has changed. Demand will increase for years and then stay steady, according to every forecast ever. Maybe some crazy scalable cold fusion technology gets invented in 10 years that completely upends the world energy supply, then the whole "world changed" mantra would actually apply. But for right now, for what we know, with electrical grids straining under demand right now without heavy EV penetration, and with billions of people in asia and africa making the climb out of poverty, oil and gas will stay in heavy demand. Once we have TMX KXL and coastal gas linking us to the world market, we will help meet that demand.
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Old 10-29-2020, 06:16 PM   #187
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If only every "environmentalist" in this country was as smart and as pragmatic as this guy.

Demand for hydrocarbons will proceed decades into the future. Even if you accept the most bearish forecast of oil demand peaking 10 years from now, natural gas will keep growing for many years after that and Alberta has a facktonne of that too. People who keep saying "the world has changed" I think just like saying it to sound profound but fundamentally, when it comes to energy demand, nothing has changed. Demand will increase for years and then stay steady, according to every forecast ever. Maybe some crazy scalable cold fusion technology gets invented in 10 years that completely upends the world energy supply, then the whole "world changed" mantra would actually apply. But for right now, for what we know, with electrical grids straining under demand right now without heavy EV penetration, and with billions of people in asia and africa making the climb out of poverty, oil and gas will stay in heavy demand. Once we have TMX KXL and coastal gas linking us to the world market, we will help meet that demand.
Not arguing your point about demand now or in the future, but with such a hot demand, why is Canada's industry struggling so much right now?
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Old 10-29-2020, 06:20 PM   #188
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Not arguing your point about demand now or in the future, but with such a hot demand, why is Canada's industry struggling so much right now?
Sigh
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Old 10-29-2020, 06:22 PM   #189
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Sigh
Thanks for the contribution.
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Old 10-29-2020, 06:40 PM   #190
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Thanks for the contribution.

Have you been living under a rock since 2015?
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Old 10-29-2020, 07:31 PM   #191
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Thanks for the contribution.

because, grasshopper, we been played.

and sold out.

and dis'd.

bro.
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Old 10-29-2020, 07:46 PM   #192
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Not arguing your point about demand now or in the future, but with such a hot demand, why is Canada's industry struggling so much right now?
Well the government banned investment in new production for the last two years through a curtailment program designed to prevent the differential from expanding beyond $18 per barrel (cost of rail). Because of this loss of investment many jobs in the design and construction of new facilities disappeared.

The curtailment cuts to existing production meant the natural reservoir decline could occur drilling any new sustaining production wells was deferred. This caused people who involved in sustaining capital projects to lose their jobs

Since companies were still profitable during this periods they used cash reserves and cash flows to buy up competitors leaving the market merging companies leading to more job losses.

Given the change in perception of Canadian oil due to lack of takeaway capacity and large firms using the Oilsands as an easy way to score green points without hurting the balance sheets has made debt refinancing more difficult which has led to distressed assets and more take overs and more job losses.

While the above has been occurring a world wide pandemic surpressed oil demand in general and depressed price per barrel of oil. Evidence of demand for Canadian Heavy oil can be seen in the record low spreads during this time period.

However despite all of the above issues oil has consistently been above op cost per barrel, and op cost plus sustaining cap per barrel and for many complies op cost plus sis cap plus G+A.

Alberta is reasonably well positioned to produce the last barrel of oil.

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Old 10-29-2020, 07:50 PM   #193
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because, grasshopper, we been played.

and sold out.

and dis'd.

bro.
Maybe all of you guys need to check yourselves. Not one of you knows me and you are making presumptions about what I believe and my stance on this issue.
I am from Alberta. I am not anti-oil. I am a realist.
Get over yourselves and let's have a discussion.
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Old 10-29-2020, 08:12 PM   #194
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Maybe all of you guys need to check yourselves. Not one of you knows me and you are making presumptions about what I believe and my stance on this issue.
I am from Alberta. I am not anti-oil. I am a realist.
Get over yourselves and let's have a discussion.
I think in a nutshell beyond what GGG said it’s simply that supply was crazy high. It’s actually building up to be a boom in a couple years I suspect but we won’t be in a position to capitalize on it as much as we theoretically could have due to pipeline capacity.

The States is going to come off pretty hard. They still use a ####load of oil despite what all the people in the US political thread thinks is possible. Just doesn’t jive with the expert prognosticators or forecasts no matter how “green” things go.

GGG is right. It’s still a profitable industry. But it needs to be because risks are quite high especially in this insane nation.
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Old 10-29-2020, 08:24 PM   #195
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I think there is no doubt that there has been mismanagement at both the political and corporate level.

As far as public opposition to O&G development goes, it is real and it is sometimes vehement. Even if it is misguided, and some of it certainly is, in a country like Canada policy makers need to walk the line. We can't just force pipelines through aboriginal territories or constituencies that are against them.

I have a close friend who is a senior executive with a major energy company and I know for a fact that they are working towards diversification, finding ways to maximize profits, innovation, positioning for the future. Things have changed.
The leaders are moving forward as best they can.

I do feel for all those affected by all the layoffs. It is far from good. I do believe that we will come out better for it on the other side, but it is obviously a difficult transition.
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Old 10-30-2020, 09:34 AM   #196
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Originally Posted by blender View Post
I think there is no doubt that there has been mismanagement at both the political and corporate level.

As far as public opposition to O&G development goes, it is real and it is sometimes vehement. Even if it is misguided, and some of it certainly is, in a country like Canada policy makers need to walk the line. We can't just force pipelines through aboriginal territories or constituencies that are against them.

I have a close friend who is a senior executive with a major energy company and I know for a fact that they are working towards diversification, finding ways to maximize profits, innovation, positioning for the future. Things have changed.
The leaders are moving forward as best they can.

I do feel for all those affected by all the layoffs. It is far from good. I do believe that we will come out better for it on the other side, but it is obviously a difficult transition.
I hate being a victim, but the reality is Alberta and Canada in general got victimized pretty hard by a very smart, very well-funded, very intricate obstruction campaign that above all was timed perfectly. Up until 2008, besides the existing TransMountain line to Vancouver that allows us to load a trickle of oil onto tankers, essentially all of our export pipeline capacity ran to one country, the US. Not only one country, but one market in one country, the US midwest. These pipelines were all built in the 50s and 60s and served us adequately for a long time but now you had the Midwest declining in importance with the US Gulf Coast and and east Asia now being the most lucrative and complex refining markets. Also, for the first time since the 50's and 60s our oil production was about to explode upwards thanks to the advent of oil sands mining and SAGD projects. In the face of a changing world energy dynamic with new markets set to be the most lucrative and growing, along with a physical need for more pipeline space, Keystone to the Gulf and TMX and northern gateway to the Pacific were proposed. It was probably the most critical time for expanding capacity since oil was first discovered here and it was the perfect time for these obstructionist groups to strike and inflict maximum damage. Which is what they did. Luckily we were able to build the first stage of keystone to access Patoka Illinois and the Gulf coast in 2010 before these groups really got ramped up, but their consistent efforts and a completely arbitrary and damaging revocation by everyone's favorite President Obama has kept the finishing piece tied up. Northern Gateway was killed and TMX has been delayed in part by these same groups. Here we are 10 years later and none of these projects have been completed, and the resulting takewaway limbo has been extremely damaging to our industry, which was by design.

To the best of my knowledge, no other jurisdiction on earth has pipeline constraints like Alberta does. In terms of dysfunctional oil basins it's us, Venezuela due to their economic collapse, and Libya due to their civil war. All of our competitors, for this entire last decade despite low prices, have basically been growing production, building pipelines if needed, and pumping away and selling. The US (obama built lots of needed pipes in texas and oklahoma, he just felt like ####ing us over), Russia, Saudi, UAE, Brazil, Norway, everyone kept going gangbusters. In a world of mobile capital, decision makers in London and New York and Toronto justifiably looked at us and laughed. Why would you put a dollar at risk producing oil that might not even make it into an export pipe in Canada if you could invest it almost literally anywhere else. And that's what happened, look at all the international companies that pulled up stakes and peaced out in the last decade of being capped out pipeline wise.

So in short, if by some miracle of God we can get TMX and KXL built in the next two years we'll add 1.4 million barrels/d of open export space which is ~30% of our existing production. It'll also allow Alberta to be able to diversify down our dependence on one main US market from 50% to 25%. In that case we will be well positioned to continue making money on energy for decades. If we're capped out and tied to one declining market in the US midwest....we won't.
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Old 10-30-2020, 10:57 AM   #197
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As far as public opposition to O&G development goes, it is real and it is sometimes vehement. Even if it is misguided, and some of it certainly is, in a country like Canada policy makers need to walk the line. We can't just force pipelines through aboriginal territories or constituencies that are against them.


This is laughably comical considering the ridiculousness of Bill C-69 and what it did to Alberta's oil and gas industry.

Brett Wilson's take on Bill C-69 is something all Canadians need to hear.


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Old 10-30-2020, 01:37 PM   #198
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As far as public opposition to O&G development goes, it is real and it is sometimes vehement. Even if it is misguided, and some of it certainly is, in a country like Canada policy makers need to walk the line. We can't just force pipelines through aboriginal territories or constituencies that are against them.


This is laughably comical considering the ridiculousness of Bill C-69 and what it did to Alberta's oil and gas industry.

Brett Wilson's take on Bill C-69 is something all Canadians need to hear.

Link to video doesn't work for me so I haven't watched, but I'm familiar with the general points of that Bill and how it has negatively affected the industry.

It doesn't change the fact that there are a significant number of people in this country who think the environment and global climate change and territorial rights are more important than oil and gas development. Its not about who is right, it's about people having a right to an opinion and a voice in the future of their nation.

You can call it laughable, but it is a serious issue.
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Old 10-30-2020, 01:58 PM   #199
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Maybe all of you guys need to check yourselves. Not one of you knows me and you are making presumptions about what I believe and my stance on this issue.
I am from Alberta. I am not anti-oil. I am a realist.
Get over yourselves and let's have a discussion.
I detect a spirit of angst blending away within you. Be calm... there was no affront intended just merely jovial wordplay.

So we got played... starting back in the 70's roughly when the USA recognized Canada's potential. Lobbying started, NEP was implemented, the development and construction of large processing facilities (think Joffre and Fort Saskatechewan mega-plex) started slowing down. Our government bought into external influences and stopped thinking for themselves, as well the decision makers out east looked after their people. Then, starting 10-15 years ago once it appeared that oilsands (SAGD, in-situ, tarsands, whatever you wish to label them) within Canada were clearly highly profitable there started a political and moreso public campaign which Federally was ignored and corporately was not recognized for it's danger. Somehow Canadian production became the bad guy despite implementing leading edge technologies that managed costs, environment, etc.

Next thing we had Hollywood celebrities flying over our open mines gasping in disbelief, yet they could/would not comprehend what they saw was on a lesser scale than many middle east, Russian, Indonesian, and African exploitation means. These other locations either would not allow these flyovers or engagement at all. These celebrities also did not, I assume, tour major production fields around the USA where drilling rigs were spud'd every 50m, where solution gas was freely vented to atmosphere (and still is), or no environmental issue gave cause to pause, stop, or approach development/exploitation by a more expensive yet more environmentally sensitive means.

Are there other resources that are being exploited that result in substantial physical damage, emissions, divided opinions, or Federal support/suppression? most certainly. And this includes the reality that full life-cycle of "green energy" which most often is anything but.

Anyways... that's my take on it. 'nuff said. Between this and all the other postings we've had a pretty good knowledge/opinion share.

Last edited by RichieRich; 10-30-2020 at 01:59 PM. Reason: fixed spacing
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Old 10-30-2020, 02:10 PM   #200
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Just to add to some great points in a very simplistic way. Our marketing failed us. Too much this;



Not enough this;

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