Calgarypuck Prospect Ranking 2016 - Round 15 Run Off

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

However, the numbers are on my side.

Not really. A lazy analysis of the numbers may be on your side but that's all it is. Since SV℅ is not a stat isolsted from team effects or league effects.

He's never had a Sv% above .907 and never had a GAA below 3.06. I know it's the "Q", but those stats don't exactly inspire me,

Below I will compare McDonald's SV% by danger level to Julio Billia, who posted a .919 to lead the entire Q in SV℅:




Wait a second. If you normalize that to the same shot volumes - McDonald was better than Billia in Medium Danger shots, and just as good at low and high danger shots.

It's almost as if goaltending stats don't exist in a vacuum!

Why, if you flipped their teams, McDonald would have led the Q in SV%!

Wait, being on a superior team makes you a better goaltender prospect and indicates upward progression?

and he looked pretty bad at the WJC..

Pretty bad? He had one bad game. I'm seen Carey Price look like a scrub during his Hart season when Josh Jooris was picking corners on him. It doesn't help that Canada thought our best shot at winning was spending virtually entire games killing 5-on-3s.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Tuulola's draft positions seems to simply be a reflection of his projection. We're talking about a guy who was thought of as a worse prospect by Tod Button and co than Linus Lindstrom and Mitchell Mattson and Adam Fox and Mitchell Mattson.

You said Mattson twice

Seriously though, from 4th to 7th round guys have pretty much the same chance of making the NHL, so really saying we should rank a Flames 5th round pick higher than a 6th round pick is bordering on silly. It's just not how that works, and I doubt you could find a Flames scout who would say that's how it works.

There are also well known reasons why it doesn't work like that.

First of all, that would only be how the draft works if every scout saw every guy equally and they would all have equal ability to argue for their opinion. We know this is not the case when it comes to the later picks. (Judging from Trelivings comments after the draft, it seems in the later rounds the Flames pretty much go with some scouts favourite guy, one at a time.)

Teams can also take organization needs into consideration in the later rounds. Teams also consider which guys are more likely to still be available later on.

For all we know the Flames felt Lindström, Tuulola and Mattson were essentially equal and just drew names from a hat in the end.

[GranteedEV]

Sorry, meant to say Dillon Dube as one of those Mattsons.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Sorry, meant to say Dillon Dube as one of those Mattsons.

For the record that I think your argument is a good one when it comes to Dube and Fox.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Not really. A lazy analysis of the numbers may be on your side but that's all it is. Since SV℅ is not a stat isolsted from team effects or league effects.



Below I will compare McDonald's SV% by danger level to Julio Billia, who posted a .919 to lead the entire Q in SV℅:




Wait a second. If you normalize that to the same shot volumes - McDonald was better than Billia in Medium Danger shots, and just as good at low and high danger shots.

It's almost as if goaltending stats don't exist in a vacuum!

Why, if you flipped their teams, McDonald would have led the Q in SV%!

Wait, being on a superior team makes you a better goaltender prospect and indicates upward progression?



Pretty bad? He had one bad game. I'm seen Carey Price look like a scrub during his Hart season when Josh Jooris was picking corners on him. It doesn't help that Canada thought our best shot at winning was spending virtually entire games killing 5-on-3s.

This might be the most condescending post I've ever had directed at me on CP, and there are some extremely condescending posters on here. Well done. You win the prize.

BTW, the "numbers on my side" I was talking about was the fact that a vast majority of goaltenders don't make the NHL, and most wash out, not necessarily about his actual stats. That was merely an illustration of why I wasn't impressed.

Oh, and just in addition, his numbers actually regressed this year, which is not a great sign for any prospect. It wasn't just the WJC showing, that was merely a symptom of his lesser year.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

This might be the most condescending post I've ever had directed at me on CP, and there are some extremely condescending posters on here. Well done. You win the prize.

You've earned it.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Oh, and just in addition, his numbers actually regressed this year, which is not a great sign for any prospect. It wasn't just the WJC showing, that was merely a symptom of his lesser year.

Goaltending numbers are so inherently tied up with team performance that trying to judge a goaltender's progression or development strictly by his junior numbers is a fool's errand. Put Mason McDonald on the best defensive team in the QMJHL and he likely leads the league in numbers. Put Mason McDonald on the worst team in the league and he'll have mediocre to bad numbers. So what could his numbers possibly tell us unless you take into account how good his team is, what kind of chances they give up, what kind of shots they give up, etc? Nothing.

Trying to judge goalie prospects based on junior numbers is a mistake.

[cannon7]

I'm sure Andersson dropped a bit in the rankings because of his development camp, too.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Goaltending numbers are so inherently tied up with team performance that trying to judge a goaltender's progression or development strictly by his junior numbers is a fool's errand.

Jesus...

All I'm saying is that when I've observed him playing hockey, he's never looked that great, despite the scouting reports saying the opposite. The impression I get is very different than that of what I've read, and it just doesn't add up for me. The numbers just sort of reinforce the impression he's given me.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

You've earned it.

Honestly, you're being pretty insufferable. I'm not doing anything other than giving my thoughts or opinions and then giving my reasons for why I think that. If you don't like the fact that people arrive at different conclusions than you despite your sophisticated statistical arguments, you probably shouldn't post on this board.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

I'm not sold on Tuulola yet, but I honestly think McDonald is already, or will be a bust, so for that reason I pick Tuulola.

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Jesus...

All I'm saying is that when I've observed him playing hockey, he's never looked that great, despite the scouting reports saying the opposite. The impression I get is very different than that of what I've read, and it just doesn't add up for me. The numbers just sort of reinforce the impression he's given me.

No, that wasn't all you were saying because you called him a bust before he's even played a pro game. Your statement deserved to be jumped all over because it was a foolish and premature statement to make with not enough to justify it. If all you had said was he's looked bit shaky to you at times I don't think anybody would've had a problem. Calling him a bust? It's way too early to be bringing up that word especially in regards to a young goaltender.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Honestly, you're being pretty insufferable. I'm not doing anything other than giving my thoughts or opinions and then giving my reasons for why I think that. If you don't like the fact that people arrive at different conclusions than you despite your sophisticated statistical arguments, you probably shouldn't post on this board.

You are the one attempting a half-baked statistical argument. If you don't like to be called out on it, perhaps you shouldn't post anything resembling a statistical argument rather than, as has become the norm for you, taking uncalled for personal pot shots to deflect from the actual point of any argument.

You are the one who made the beyond extreme claim that 'McDonald is already, or will be a bust'. Perhaps if you don't like defending such extreme positions, you probably should not post on this board.

[N-E-B]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Johnny says hi.

So does Gio.

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

And Brodie.

Hey, Monahan can't be better than MacKinnon, Colorado didn't pick him 1st overall.

Why is draft position so relevant all of a sudden?

The thousands and thousands of 4th-7th rounders who never get a cup of coffee in the NHL also say hi.

Draft position is 100% relevant when debating a prospect that was drafted a month ago. It will be meaningless in 3 or 4 years, but as of now it's not even up for discussion that it's relevant.

[mikephoen]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Goaltending numbers are so inherently tied up with team performance that trying to judge a goaltender's progression or development strictly by his junior numbers is a fool's errand. Put Mason McDonald on the best defensive team in the QMJHL and he likely leads the league in numbers. Put Mason McDonald on the worst team in the league and he'll have mediocre to bad numbers. So what could his numbers possibly tell us unless you take into account how good his team is, what kind of chances they give up, what kind of shots they give up, etc? Nothing.

Trying to judge goalie prospects based on junior numbers is a mistake.

They put him on Canada's world junior team and he looked bad there too.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by mikephoen

They put him on Canada's world junior team and he looked bad there too.

Eh. Looked better than the other guy frankly. Yeah he let in some goals but the majority of them were tips. I didn't think McDonald was to blame in the games he played in and Mackenzie Blackwood was bad in the elimination game against Finland and should've been pulled for McDonald in that one.

I mean yeah, would've been reassuring had he stood on his head, won the starter's role and led the team to victory. But I'm not sure how much we can really read into those tipped goals. Canada's defense was not incredibly strong at the WJCs. And McDonald was strong in the QMJHL playoffs reportedly.

And in the end he's basically still in the infancy of his career. We'll be able to judge a lot more based on his pro resume once he starts logging some games at the ECHL or AHL level.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

You are the one attempting a half-baked statistical argument. If you don't like to be called out on it, perhaps you shouldn't post anything resembling a statistical argument rather than, as has become the norm for you, taking uncalled for personal pot shots to deflect from the actual point of any argument.

You are the one who made the beyond extreme claim that 'McDonald is already, or will be a bust'. Perhaps if you don't like defending such extreme positions, you probably should not post on this board.

LOL, you were condescending. Every word you wrote implied that I was too simple to understand a straightforward explanation. Even my wife (who has no problem calling me out for things) thought you were overly condescending. It wasn't a pot shot it was an accurate assessment of what you wrote. Just own it.

As for the rest of what you think about me, I don't think that's a fair assessment. Clearly you don't like me or anything I have to say, perhaps because I've challenged your thoughts in the past. So be it. I can't please everyone. But I did try to defend my position to others who challenged it respectfully. You didn't do that, and it's not the first time I've seen you act that way towards other posters opinions that you disagree with.

Just some advice: Don't treat people like they're stupid. It makes things pretty hostile around here very quickly.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

No, that wasn't all you were saying because you called him a bust before he's even played a pro game. Your statement deserved to be jumped all over because it was a foolish and premature statement to make with not enough to justify it. If all you had said was he's looked bit shaky to you at times I don't think anybody would've had a problem. Calling him a bust? It's way too early to be bringing up that word especially in regards to a young goaltender.

It's honestly how I feel. I'll eat crow if I'm proven wrong, but I don't think I'll be wrong on this one. I can't even quantify it, which sucks because it sounds like I'm just pulling things out of my butt, but it's a gut feeling on this kid. I just don't see a higher level from him.

Time will tell, and then you can all tell me how wrong I was. I won't really care because if he's great, then I win because we have a great goaltending prospect, and if he sucks, I'll be proven right. Win-win for me really.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Put Mason McDonald on the worst team in the league and he'll have mediocre to bad numbers. So what could his numbers possibly tell us unless you take into account how good his team is, what kind of chances they give up, what kind of shots they give up, etc? Nothing.

Otherwise known as the Dubnyk principle.

[TheScorpion]

A contest to see who can be the most indignantly self-righteous? I love these.

GranteedEV wins!

[dammage79]

Also not a big believer in McDonald and a big believer in Tuulola. We should be considering Tuulola a steal of a pick in round #6. It's been mentioned many times already for those who actually cared to read but his stock dropped not due to performance but due to a string of re-occuring shoulder injuries throughout his draft year. His U-18 tournament was a big positive for those who cared to pay attention and scored some big points when things were on the line. He also dominated physically during that tournament. I feel confident he has been quoted as he only really felt %100 during that tournament for the entire season.

For me, the Prospect Camp was only a re-affirmation of what the kid had for his game.