Calgarypuck Prospect Ranking 2016 - Round 15 Run Off

[Itse]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

They are fun opportunities to get a gauge on players, particularly those we don't see - but those observations shouldn't outweigh more tangible data points - such as the fact that this very team picked 6 guys ahead of him in the draft, including 4 that aren't in this run-off.

I don't think the draft order means much after the first hundred picks though.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by Itse

I don't think the draft order means much after the first hundred picks though.

Means more than the results of a summer dev camp.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by mikephoen

At least Tuulola had a positive development camp. There wasn't much positive about McDonald's 15/16 season.

Yes, a July development camp is more positive a tiny sample size event than winning a Major Junior playoff series with a 0.922 (.928 in the four wins)

Or posting a 0.921 over the final eighteen regular season games.

Nope, not a positive thing at all about McDonald's season. Because he was below average in those two WJC games where the defense in front of him was also god awful. And by two, I mean one, because he only allowed one goal in one of the two games. The WJC...where he was still better than the other goalie, MacKenzie Blackwood.

[Itse]

Tuulola also won gold with the Finnish U18 team. In a much smaller role than McDonald of course, but it's not nothing.

[Vulcan]

If it was just the fans being impressed with Tuulola, I'd be more leery but the Flames were also impressed. Impressed enough to change his development schedule and want him in NA right now. He'll be able to attend our rookie camp, Penticton, maybe our main camp and play in the WHL this season.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

If it was just the fans being impressed with Tuulola, I'd be more leery but the Flames were also impressed. Impressed enough to change his development schedule and want him in NA right now. He'll be able to attend our rookie camp, Penticton, maybe our main camp and play in the WHL this season.

Sorry, did the Flames have anything to do with that? Wasn't that his decision?

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Vulcan

Impressed enough to change his development schedule and want him in NA right now.

Huh? I believe the exact quote was

Originally Posted by Treliving

"His game is more suited to the North American game. Talking with him, that's really what he's looking at. He likes the small rink and banging into each other, he thinks that's kind of cool. I think it's going to suit him well if that is, indeed, the way he goes."

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

I honestly think McDonald is already, or will be a bust

I don't get how anyone can be so sure at this point. Even the great Patrick Roy was letting in 5.55GAA in his draft+1 year. Obviously McDonald is no Patrick Roy but goalies don't always develop in a linear fashion.

[Enoch Root]

McDonald.

Calling him a bust is silly. He was the top rated goalie in his draft class by CSS and was #1 or #2 on pretty much every list.

He just turned 20 and hasn't played a single professional game yet.

He is 6'4" and has all the tools.

Let's let the coaching staff have a week or two with him before we completely write him off.

[StrykerSteve]

Tuulola is a 6th rounder who had one good scrimmage. McDonald has much better pedigree.

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by StrykerSteve

Tuulola is a 6th rounder who had one good scrimmage. McDonald has much better pedigree.

That's your opinion, which is OK.

Just want to point out, however, that many people believe that those of us who were at the camp are basing our evaluations of Tuulola only on his Thursday camp. This is not the case. Tuulola had fantastic showings on both of the previous two days. I was there for Wednesday and he was easily one of the best players on the ice.

Not saying that necessarily justifies placing him over McDonald, who also looked good at the camp. Just providing some more context.

[Red Menace]

Originally Posted by JiriHrdina

People can vote in these however they want, but making any decision based on a summer dev camp seems strange to me.
So I go back to how highly regarded Tuulola was prior to that camp, and how this very organization placed him on their list, relative to other players, says a lot.

agreed, but it sure made a lot of people drop Rasmuss Andersson down a few notches. I wouldn't have voted for either in this spot...but picked Tuulola because I am not that high on McDonald

[N-E-B]

If Tuulola was really as good as some of you think he is he would have been gone long before the 6th round. McDonald and it's not even close. I fail to see how anyone could seriously pick Tuulola without completely overvaluing his rookie camp.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by N-E-B

If Tuulola was really as good as some of you think he is he would have been gone long before the 6th round. McDonald and it's not even close. I fail to see how anyone could seriously pick Tuulola without completely overvaluing his rookie camp.

Johnny says hi.

So does Gio.

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Johnny says hi.

So does Gio.

And Brodie.

Hey, Monahan can't be better than MacKinnon, Colorado didn't pick him 1st overall.

Why is draft position so relevant all of a sudden?

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

And Brodie.

Hey, Monahan can't be better than MacKinnon, Colorado didn't pick him 1st overall.

Why is draft position so relevant all of a sudden?

Draft position isn't the be all end all, the point is that based on the information we have right now - it is more meaningful than a 3 day summer camp.

[devo22]

Johnny was always a special case because of his size. If he were a bit taller, he would have gone in the 1st round for sure. Giordanos draft year was 14 years ago, since then scouting has become a completely different beast and fewer gems slip through the cracks.

Anyway, only a few weeks ago, the Flames took six guys ahead of Tuulola and four of those are still available in our ranking poll. Guys like Dube and Fox were taken 100 and 90 spots ahead of him ... probably for a reason. It's fascinating that quite a few users here take a few days in early July to come to a completely different conclusion.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Why is draft position so relevant all of a sudden?

Because Tuulola has yet to play a single meaningful game of hockey since his draft.
Because whereas Gaudreau's draft position was due to questions about his size, and Monahan's draft position was due to questions about his minimal increase in production, and Brodie's draft position was due to playing stealthy light minutes, and Gio's lack of a draft position was due to not playing CHL in his draft year.

Tuulola's draft positions seems to simply be a reflection of his projection. We're talking about a guy who was thought of as a worse prospect by Tod Button and co than Linus Lindstrom and Mitchell Mattson and Adam Fox and Mitchell Mattson. The only thing that happened since then was a development camp in July. If a season's body of work from now, you think Tuulola is a superior prospect to Matthew Tkachuk, be my guest. Development is unpredictable. But no development has occured since his draft. A lot has to go right for him to become even a Micheal Ferland, whom this fanbase has curiously written off after a single moderately effective full season at age 23.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

That's slightly premature, no?

Just a sense I get about him when I've watched him, and his numbers don't seem to be telling a different story. I'm no expert, I'll freely admit, but I get the sense that McDonald doesn't have a much higher level than what he's shown so far. Goalies take a long time to develop, we all know this, so I'm not saying he has no chance. However, the numbers are on my side and it's more than likely he never plays an NHL game. He's never had a Sv% above .907 and never had a GAA below 3.06. I know it's the "Q", but those stats don't exactly inspire me, and he looked pretty bad at the WJC.

But yes, it's premature. That I will grant you.

[DiracSpike]

For what it's worth Tuulola was projected pre-draft as a third rounder by a lot of publications I looked at.