COVID-19 Vaccine Talk

[AFireInside]

Originally Posted by GGG

You feel fantastic.

100% effective against preventing severe disease and death.

The only concern is the SA/California variants.

Look at the UK Covid stats for a jurisdiction that has significant AZ use

We still don't have any data on it preventing severe illness and death with those two variants though right? Or has there been more information out that I missed?

[opendoor]

Yeah, there's so much conflicting information right now it's hard to really know. There isn't really any data on serious outcomes with the South African variant for the Oxford vaccine, but at the same time there isn't really data on that for the mRNA vaccines either. The trials showed far lower efficacy than the mRNA vaccines, but then based on some of the post hoc subgroups the longer interval was quite effective, but there's a lot of messy data so it's hard to really know.

And then you have extremely positive info coming out of the UK based on real-world data that shows the Oxford vaccine doing an even better job than the Pfizer one at preventing serious outcomes after one dose. But then some of the numbers are almost unbelievable (i.e. 70% efficacy against hospitalization from 7-13 days after the 1st dose of the Oxford vaccine) that it's hard to tell if they randomized things properly.

I have seen theories that because of how the vaccines generate slightly different immune responses, that the Oxford vaccine might be particularly biased towards preventing serious outcomes while allowing more mild illness, so it's totally possible that it could still be effective at preventing serious outcomes against the existing variants. And since we're likely looking at getting booster shots for variants anyway, it probably does make sense to just take the Oxford one now if that's what's available. And if in the real world it does prove to be less effective, then you can get a booster from a more robust formulation or vaccine later on to prevent against mild illness.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by opendoor

So based on the Serum Institute and COVAX amounts, that's about 33M doses by the end of June. Plus whatever they get from AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson. Even if they only managed to get 25% of their Q2 + Q3 amounts from the latter two, that'd be a little over 40M doses, enough for about 21-22M people (depending on the J&J amount). And once you consider the dosing intervals, that's more like 25M people getting their 1st shot from those doses, which is about 90% of the 20+ year old population.

Obviously all the caveats about those being deliveries vs actually administered shots, possible supply disruptions, etc. apply, but still encouraging news.

Do we know what the agreement looks like for AZ or J&J quantity wise by end of Q2?

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Do we know what the agreement looks like for AZ or J&J quantity wise by end of Q2?

No, they haven't released that info. It's hard to know what to expect. Both companies have had much slower production than expected, but on the other hand the US doesn't look like they're even going to bother with the AZ vaccine, so you'd think there'd be plenty of supply for export there.

I wish Novavax had sorted their production out better and were making doses in large quantities right now, because in terms of cost, logistics, production capacity, and efficacy, it might be the best of the bunch.

[Barnes]

583,860 vaccine doses have been delivered to Canada this week.

69,090 to Alberta.

Yay.

[looooob]

Originally Posted by Barnes

583,860 vaccine doses have been delivered to Canada this week.

69,090 to Alberta.

Yay.

over 11K vaccinations recorded today, over 207K jabs now given in Alberta

[GoinAllTheWay]

Just heard from my parents. Both of them got their first Pfizer shots at 3PM. I'm gonna sleep like a baby tonight....

Sounds like it went really smoothly for them. In at their designated time and out in a half hour. Ran like clockwork at the old Rona location in Midnapore.

[looooob]

over 67 000 vaccinations in Canada today- new daily high


the Pfizer number is pretty static at about the equivalent of 63 000 doses/day for Canada for the next 5 weeks, so plus or minus capacity on hand and the Moderna boluses, this looks like the kind of daily figure we can expect for a while

[Julio]

Originally Posted by looooob

over 67 000 vaccinations in Canada today- new daily high


the Pfizer number is pretty static at about the equivalent of 63 000 doses/day for Canada for the next 5 weeks, so plus or minus capacity on hand and the Moderna boluses, this looks like the kind of daily figure we can expect for a while

The good thing is that the Moderna numbers really pop next month, with 1.3 million doses promised. That is an extra 30-40k a day, abet with the majority of it being in the latter part of the month. Even 'just' the 460 k coming the week of March 8th would average out to over 15k over the whole month. Plus we can add, say, 10k a day in the latter part of March from AZ, as it sounds like 500k doses will be delivered from India next week.

Maybe I am being optimistic, but I can see most days in March being over 80k days, with numbers scaling up to over 100k by the end of the month.

[opendoor]

Hopefully the provinces are ready to administer the big jump in doses. There's no reason they shouldn't be, but some of the stuff coming out of Ontario the last few days is ridiculous. They're not even starting 80+ year olds for several weeks and they're saying 60-64 year olds won't start until July. Meanwhile Alberta could almost be done giving 1st doses to 75+ year olds by the time Ontario starts and BC's plan calls for starting 35-39 year olds in late July (which itself is fairly conservative as it doesn't include the 35% increase in Pfizer doses in Q2 or any AstraZeneca/J&J doses).

[Bunk]

Feeling pretty optimistic that as an 1981er, I’ll get at least my first dose by June sometime. I am very excite!

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Hopefully the provinces are ready to administer the big jump in doses. There's no reason they shouldn't be, but some of the stuff coming out of Ontario the last few days is ridiculous. They're not even starting 80+ year olds for several weeks and they're saying 60-64 year olds won't start until July. Meanwhile Alberta could almost be done giving 1st doses to 75+ year olds by the time Ontario starts and BC's plan calls for starting 35-39 year olds in late July (which itself is fairly conservative as it doesn't include the 35% increase in Pfizer doses in Q2 or any AstraZeneca/J&J doses).

Not only have your posts been really informative, I also appreciate you highlighting what felt like a gut shot announcement in Ontario. I’m still hopeful, mostly based on your posts, that it’s an overly conservative timeline.

[Knut]

My college just confirmed I am in group 2C for the rollout. My wife is group 2D. We are pumped to get this thing. Timeline now says April, but hoping for sooner.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

Not only have your posts been really informative, I also appreciate you highlighting what felt like a gut shot announcement in Ontario. I’m still hopeful, mostly based on your posts, that it’s an overly conservative timeline.

Yeah, it was a weird announcement. I suspect one or more of the following is going on (probably all three, really):

-they're setting an insanely low bar so they can beat it easily (or not look bad if something catastrophic happens with the supply)
-they're simply counting 2 doses per person using only Pfizer + Moderna, without factoring in the dosing interval or additional vaccines
-they plan to cover huge parts of the U60 population in Q2 by having a very liberal definition of essential workers

So their math might go something like 11M doses of Pfizer + Moderna by the end of June = 5.5M people vaccinated (2.5M people over 65 and 3M essential workers). But they're ignoring the fact that not everyone will take it, other vaccines will obviously come (approving AZ and J&J were/are essentially formalities), and due to dosing intervals, unless they're just planning on keeping millions of doses in freezers, a lot more people can start getting vaccinated than 1/2 the number of doses.

And it's odd, because in December Ontario was saying they expected 8.5M people to be vaccinated by the end of Phase 2 in late July which sounds more plausible than their recent announcement:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toron...line-1.5856702

And if you do the math, 8.5M people is 90% of the 30+ population in Ontario, which would probably cover everyone over that age who wanted it. After that there are a little over 2M people aged 18-29 left to do before you've completely covered the adult population.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by opendoor

-they plan to cover huge parts of the U60 population in Q2 by having a very liberal definition of essential workers
.

I think you’re onto something with this point specifically.

[Dion]

Originally Posted by Knut

My college just confirmed I am in group 2C for the rollout. My wife is group 2D. We are pumped to get this thing. Timeline now says April, but hoping for sooner.

Like your wife I'm in group 2D also.

[AFireInside]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Yeah, there's so much conflicting information right now it's hard to really know. There isn't really any data on serious outcomes with the South African variant for the Oxford vaccine, but at the same time there isn't really data on that for the mRNA vaccines either. The trials showed far lower efficacy than the mRNA vaccines, but then based on some of the post hoc subgroups the longer interval was quite effective, but there's a lot of messy data so it's hard to really know.

And then you have extremely positive info coming out of the UK based on real-world data that shows the Oxford vaccine doing an even better job than the Pfizer one at preventing serious outcomes after one dose. But then some of the numbers are almost unbelievable (i.e. 70% efficacy against hospitalization from 7-13 days after the 1st dose of the Oxford vaccine) that it's hard to tell if they randomized things properly.

I have seen theories that because of how the vaccines generate slightly different immune responses, that the Oxford vaccine might be particularly biased towards preventing serious outcomes while allowing more mild illness, so it's totally possible that it could still be effective at preventing serious outcomes against the existing variants. And since we're likely looking at getting booster shots for variants anyway, it probably does make sense to just take the Oxford one now if that's what's available. And if in the real world it does prove to be less effective, then you can get a booster from a more robust formulation or vaccine later on to prevent against mild illness.

First of all thanks for providing so much info in this thread! I definitely appreciate it.

Ok that's kind of what I thought the case was. It'll be interesting to see what that data does look like if we ever get it.

It's a weird timing thing as well. Since AZ is 12 weeks between shots (at least that's what I thought I read today) I wonder if there will be a scenario where waiting for Pfizer or Moderna would actually be faster. I mean a few months down the road when I'm likely to be able to get in.

A scenario like you could get Oxford in June and be fully vaccinated by September or get Pfizer/Moderna in July and be done by August.

That's if they follow the 12 week. Don't get me wrong if offered Oxford tomorrow I'd take it in a heartbeat. Just wonder how they are planning on rolling that vaccine out. Going to be interesting, even moreso with J&J and Novavax getting approved as well.

[Ryan Coke]

Also would like to thank you opendoor, it’s been great info you’ve shared. And also how it’s been without a political bias and narrative behind it, just strong knowledge and insight.

Continuing the idea of dosing intervals, I haven’t heard much more about the idea of stretching the mRNA 2nd dose out significantly more. I did read one article yesterday that the immunization advisory council will be meeting shortly about a new interval recommendation. Several provinces, including Alberta, are already doing 42 days, and the article felt that it was likely they would go beyond 60 days, but unsure how far beyond.

I’ve also tried to catch some updates with Hinshaw to see if she touched on it or any questions were asked about it, and haven’t heard a thing. To me it seems that if first shot efficacy data is as strong and some reports indicate, it should really be a no brainer. Even if the protection on one shot were to start dropping off after 6 months or something, getting a full new reimmunization (with 2 more shots) down the road when supply is less of an issue is worth stopping deaths and reopening several months earlier.

[GGG]

I think given the perception of the AZ vaccine you open it up to at least 1 age group lower then eligible for Pfizer/Moderna or make it open for everyone.

Looking at the numbers there is still distinct hospitalization advantages to getting older (40+) over the under 40 crowd so doing it in stages probably makes sense. But to avoid people trying to either game the system or worse end up with unused AZ vaccine some kind of incentive needs to be created to offset the perception of a worse product.

Also Amir Attaran should only be allowed to get the AZ vaccine.

[Bunk]

Agree, maybe target AZ to 16-30, with the three others for everyone 30+