Quote:
Originally Posted by transplant99
Here are some facts for you.
Point production vs the rest of the NHL by year.
19/20 tied 461st.
18/19 tied 292nd.
17/18 tied 300th
16/17 tied 280th
15/16 tied 191st
262 players have produced more over the 5 years combined.
Average finish is 305th.
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I guess it comes down to how much value one places in "point production" - a stat influenced by many different factors - both those within a player's control and those outside of it.
I don't expect to sway you on what you value. But I know what I value, and it's not that, because that is the sort of thing that sees players in favourable situations flourish, and players in less favourable situations "underperform".
Personally, I think primary points rates at 5v5 paint the picture of Sam Bennett:
Among forwards
2019-20
Among 318 forwards with 550+ minutes TOI
1.11 P1/60 - ranked 215th
By no means a
great year, but this primary point production was similar to guys like Sean Monahan, Tyler Seguin, and Claude Giroux, none of whom had particularly productive years at 5v5 themselves because variance is a thing. His primary point production would fall into the middle-of-the-pack for third line territory.
2018-19
Among 337 forwards with 600+ minutes TOI
1.42 P1/60 - ranked 127th
A better, more productive year, which makes sense as he got to spend more time not with Tobias Reider. His primary point production fell into the upper half of second line territory, as there are 186 top six forwards in the NHL. This primary point production was similar to guys like Nazem Kadri, Derek Ryan, Brayden Schenn, William Karlsson, and Nikolaj Ehlers. Yes, Derek Ryan also had a very productive year for a bottom six forward, centering Andrew Mangiapane and a midas-touch Garnet Hathaway on a line that outproduced their
role.
2017-18
Among 335 forwards with 600+ minutes TOI
1.04 P1/60 - ranked 224th
Not a productive year. No one is
pretending it was. His primary assists rate was the
lowest of his career. Dig deeper though. When Bennett was on the ice, the four skaters on the ice with him had 28.5
expected goals, but only scored 19 goals. You may recall this was the season Bennett spent a lot of time with guys like Jagr, Lazar, and Hathaway, and none of those three had much in terms of finishing skill.
Nonetheless, this is still top nine primary point production, as there were 279 top nine forwards in the NHL. Basically - Sam Bennett produced at a level of a third liner, in a year where he played with non-NHLer, and he himself shot career low percentages.
2016-17
Among 317 forwards with 600+ minutes TOI
0.9 P1/60 - ranked 248th
A rough year again. No one is pretending it was a strong year for Bennett. But then you look at where his most common linemate ranks. Troy Brouwer produced 0.75 primary points /60 - good for 307th in the NHL. That Gulutzan stuck to this for 80%+ of the season. And finally was replaced with Alex Chiasson, who produced at a far more respectable 0.96 primary points / 60. And remember, this is the Alex Chiasson who spent a large chunk of the season on our top line with Gaudreau and Monahan. And Bennett was essentially playing his first full season down the middle, so some rough patches were to be expected. Nonetheless, whereas Brouwer produced like a fourth liner, Bennett's primary point production
still places him in the top 270 forwards - a third liner. Which.. was his designated role from the beginning of the season to the end, and even in the playoffs where he was arguably our best centreman.
2015-16
Among 311 forwards with 600+ minutes TOI
1.42 P1/60 - ranked 85th
Whoa! The
one season Sam Bennett was utilized in a top six role, his primary point production was not only firmly in the top six territory, but actually top line territory as there were only ninety top line forwards in the NHL.
Career playoffs
368.8 minutes
9 primary poitns
that is a rate of 1.46 primary points / 60 in the playoffs. It's not spectacular by any means. But it's top six production. Much like his 2015-16 and 2018-19 seasons.
I think you look at his 2015-16, 2016-17, and 2019-20 seasons and you HAVE to ask - are players like Troy Brouwer, Curtis Lazar, whatever was left of Jagr, a rookie Hathaway, Tobias Reider - are these the types of producers that would benefit their linemate's point production - whoever it is? Is any player - whoever it is - going to "produce" at their expected levels for their roles with these players?
If you refuse to at least acknowledge the validity of that question, then I'm talking to a wall.
It's not a matter of Bennett needing a linemate to drag him up. It's a matter of Bennett needing linemates to not drag him down. I'd argue that given the linemates he's had, he's probably outproduced realistic expectations for the role every year.
