Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community
Old 03-19-2017, 09:10 AM   #81
Calgary4LIfe
Franchise Player
 
Calgary4LIfe's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Exp:
Default

It will be interesting to see if Gulutzan will scratch Brouwer at any point. Scratching a newly signed UFA in his first year, while having an 'A' on his chest and being part of the leadership group will be a big thing in the locker room. I am not saying necessarily that Brouwer should be scratched, but if he continues to have sub-par performances without any good games should make him a candidate.

He has had some really good games, even outside the start of the season. They are just fairly rare, and he is having too many games where he hasn't been noticeable, interspersed with bad games. To make him a healthy scratch though... that puts an awful lot of pressure on the player, and if confidence is indeed the biggest underlying issue at the moment, it would probably make things much more difficult for him to return to form.
Calgary4LIfe is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-19-2017, 09:11 AM   #82
edslunch
Franchise Player
 
edslunch's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Exp:
Default

I don't get the assumption that the Brouwer 'problem' can be solved by exposing him to expansion. There will be plenty of over-priced veterans exposed, what would make Brouwer more attractive after a poor season?
edslunch is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-19-2017, 09:16 AM   #83
Enoch Root
Franchise Player
 
Join Date: May 2012
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by edslunch View Post
I don't get the assumption that the Brouwer 'problem' can be solved by exposing him to expansion. There will be plenty of over-priced veterans exposed, what would make Brouwer more attractive after a poor season?
The same thing that made Stone attractive to the Flames, despite his terrible season?

I could have used Bartkowski as an example as well.

It never ceases to amaze me how guilty fans can be of recency bias. One bad year does not end a career.
Enoch Root is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to Enoch Root For This Useful Post:
Old 03-19-2017, 09:18 AM   #84
edslunch
Franchise Player
 
edslunch's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root View Post
The same thing that made Stone attractive to the Flames, despite his terrible season?



I could have used Bartkowski as an example as well.



It never ceases to amaze me how guilty fans can be of recency bias. One bad year does not end a career.


The Flames had a clear need for those players. I don't see building a team from scratch and identifying Brouwer as a key piece.
edslunch is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-19-2017, 09:19 AM   #85
CliffFletcher
Franchise Player
 
Join Date: May 2006
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Red Slinger View Post
Player signs big deal as UFA and tries too hard to live up to the contract. He has to learn new system, coaches, teammates, city, team staff, etc.
The new coaches new system meme seems to be popular on CP this season. Don't recall hearing it much, if at all, in previous seasons.

If players typically took a full season to adapt to new coaches, any GM would have to be an idiot to make a deadline trade. The truth is most players adapt quickly. Versteeg is new to the team and he's having a good season. Chiasson is bringing pretty much what was expected of him. Stone doesn't seem to be lost on a new team with a new partner. Then there's Tkachuk.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by fotze View Post
If this day gets you riled up, you obviously aren't numb to the disappointment yet to be a real fan.
CliffFletcher is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to CliffFletcher For This Useful Post:
Old 03-19-2017, 09:21 AM   #86
Enoch Root
Franchise Player
 
Join Date: May 2012
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by edslunch View Post
The Flames had a clear need for those players. I don't see building a team from scratch and identifying Brouwer as a key piece.
how many 'key pieces' do you think are going to be available?

They will definitely want some leadership for their team, for one thing.

IMO, if they weren't interested in Brouwer, it would be more likely because they didn't want to commit to 3 years of a contract, not because he had a bad year.
Enoch Root is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-19-2017, 09:23 AM   #87
Bingo
Owner
 
Bingo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by GranteedEV View Post
Vegas probably isn't dumb enough to take him over Stajan, Chiasson, Kulak, Poirier, Shinkaruk, or Bouma. People banking on McPhee to be emotionally attached to the player must be forgetting how much worse the "Brouwer era" Capitals actually were. Even we didn't start winning outside of Chad Johnson going Carey Price until he was demoted to bottom six.
I disagree on Stajan specifically.

They need to get to a certain floor in cap hit, and he would be an ideal guy to take when you consider one year left on his deal, a fair ticket, but good in the room and a great guy to start a franchise with culturally.
Bingo is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Bingo For This Useful Post:
Old 03-19-2017, 09:25 AM   #88
keenan87
Franchise Player
 
keenan87's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Flames Town
Exp:
Default

I wouldn't mind Brouwer being picked up by Vegas.. or stajan or bouma
keenan87 is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to keenan87 For This Useful Post:
Old 03-19-2017, 09:25 AM   #89
Enoch Root
Franchise Player
 
Join Date: May 2012
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by CliffFletcher View Post
The new coaches new system meme seems to be popular on CP this season. Don't recall hearing it much, if at all, in previous seasons.

If players typically took a full season to adapt to new coaches, any GM would have to be an idiot to make a deadline trade. The truth is most players adapt quickly. Versteeg is new to the team and he's having a good season. Chiasson is bringing pretty much what was expected of him. Stone doesn't seem to be lost on a new team with a new partner. Then there's Tkachuk.
Well 'new coaches, new system' is definitely a thing, whether you recall it before or not. But yeah, it gets pretty old when you're into March.

Having said that, it is definitely the case that individual players can end up in different roles and different situations as a result of it, and that can affect guys for an entire season. It's far from unheard of.
Enoch Root is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-19-2017, 10:01 AM   #90
GullFoss
#1 Goaltender
 
GullFoss's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by edslunch View Post
I don't get the assumption that the Brouwer 'problem' can be solved by exposing him to expansion. There will be plenty of over-priced veterans exposed, what would make Brouwer more attractive after a poor season?
Vegas has to spend to the floor and they want to be competitive from day one...thats the assumption.

they're not going to fill out the roster with guys like poirier who can't even make the flames roster. Sure, they'll take a number of prospects (maybe 10-15) and they'll sign some free agents (0-5) but they still need to take 15-20 NHL quality players in the expansion draft.

If teams get to protect 7 forwards...then very few underpaid top 9 players will be exposed via expansion. So many of the players Vegas selects will be a bit of a bad contract...
GullFoss is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-19-2017, 10:29 AM   #91
edn88
#1 Goaltender
 
edn88's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: Calgary
Exp:
Default

I would say that based on his performance to date, Brouwer is overpaid (most free agents end up being overpaid).
It is hard to gauge his performance until after the playoffs (isn't he supposed to be a playoff performer?).
From what I have seen of Brouwer, he is hardly a liability on the ice (Wideman is a liability).
I don't really care what he gets paid - if he is more effective than Hathaway, then you play Brouwer.
I don't think Brouwer's contract will sink the Flames - lots of team have worse contracts
Expansion draft - I don't see why you wouldn't expose him at the draft - if he is really playing below his value - Vegas would never take him. I'd hope that he would realize this and be a professional about it. If Vegas did take him at his over priced contract then he would know he was valued there.
This thread saddens me though - because it never seems to matter how the Flames are doing, there has to be negativity for someone (the whipping boy) and most of it is unfounded over overstated.
Save the vitriol for the offseason or when the team is not performing. While we are playing well, let's recognize the greatness. Having Brouwer on the third line is a great thing - it means we have a top six that are high performers (hard to argue that our first two lines are not doing well). Where else does Brouwer fit in?
__________________
GO FLAMES GO
edn88 is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to edn88 For This Useful Post:
Old 03-19-2017, 10:46 AM   #92
EldrickOnIce
Franchise Player
 
EldrickOnIce's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Chicago
Exp:
Default

Was it overly optimistic to think 120 points from a third line of Bennett (45), Brouwer (40) and Versteeg (35) was realistic?
Maybe.
Flames are elite if this is 3rd line production.
EldrickOnIce is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-19-2017, 11:09 AM   #93
Fire
Franchise Player
 
Fire's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Calgary, AB
Exp:
Default

The Flames are in pretty good shape going into next season in regards to bad contracts.

Brouwer - Is the worst of the bad contracts with his sub-par performance this season and having 3 more seasons left.

Stajan - Plays well as the 4th line center but getting paid like 2nd/3rd line center. Only one more year on his deal so not a big deal.

Bouma - Got paid after a career season, but with only 1 year left on a $2.2 million deal is nothing to get worked up about. I'm expecting Bouma to be better next season.

I don't see any other bad deals. Of course new bad deals could be signed this off-season. Need to stay away from signing Versteeg to a multi-year deal. Sam Bennett doesn't deserve a big raise yet.
__________________

Fire is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-19-2017, 11:15 AM   #94
GranteedEV
Franchise Player
 
GranteedEV's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Calgary
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo View Post
I disagree on Stajan specifically.

They need to get to a certain floor in cap hit, and he would be an ideal guy to take when you consider one year left on his deal, a fair ticket, but good in the room and a great guy to start a franchise with culturally.
Stajan is a coming off a strong season, a great leader with a ton of experience, and has a much more flexible contract that Vegas can sell next year at the deadline. He and Brouwer are only a year apart in age yet Stajan is more mobile, a better PKer, possession driver, playmaker, and his career peaks were higher than Brouwer. And he plays the more valuable position by a mile.

It seems pretty obvious to me that Stajan is a better option for an expansion team. They shouldn't have much difficulty hitting salary baseline either with overpaid guys like Dustin Brown and Joe Colborne.

Last edited by GranteedEV; 03-19-2017 at 11:29 AM.
GranteedEV is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-19-2017, 11:37 AM   #95
calgaryblood
Lifetime Suspension
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: Hmmmmmmm
Exp:
Default

Vegas is trying to have a winning culture, no way they take Joe Colborne.
calgaryblood is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to calgaryblood For This Useful Post:
Old 03-19-2017, 12:57 PM   #96
savardandjokinen
son of looooob
 
savardandjokinen's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Calgary
Exp:
Default

Let's be honest here, did anyone expect points from him? His career high is 43 points and that year he played with Ovi and Backstrom.
savardandjokinen is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-19-2017, 01:04 PM   #97
jayswin
Celebrated Square Root Day
 
jayswin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by savardandjokinen View Post
Let's be honest here, did anyone expect points from him? His career high is 43 points and that year he played with Ovi and Backstrom.
Yes, have you looked at his stats? That's his career high, but his career average isn't that far off from his career high. He should be a sure bet for 30+ points.

He's scored anywhere from 33 to 43 throughout his career, including 39 last season. What in the world would have made us expect him to get points? Maybe the fact that he always puts up points?

Last edited by jayswin; 03-19-2017 at 01:07 PM.
jayswin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-19-2017, 01:21 PM   #98
Enoch Root
Franchise Player
 
Join Date: May 2012
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce View Post
Was it overly optimistic to think 120 points from a third line of Bennett (45), Brouwer (40) and Versteeg (35) was realistic?
Maybe.
Flames are elite if this is 3rd line production.
Maybe? Definitely.

The question of what can be expected from 3rd line production comes up a lot. So I decided to run some numbers.

First of all, it is impossible to definitively determine who is on the 1st, 2nd or 3rd line for each team, so I simply ranked them by points. And I believe that is the fair way regardless, because other things like PP points come into play. Also, injuries cloud things, but when one guy is injured, another guy is getting points. So again, the only fair thing is to just rank them on points and it is what it is.

Okay, so what I did was count how many forwards are on pace for 40 points, then determined what the next forward has, and finally, what the #7 forward has.

(team / # on pace for 40 / next pt total / pt total for the #7 forward):

MIN / 7 / 36 / 36 (#8 has 32)

CBS / 6 / 34 / 34 (#8 has 27)
CAR / 6 / 33 / 33 (#8 has 22)
NYR / 6 / 33 / 33 (#8 has 28)
WAS / 6 / 30 / 30 (#8 has 27)
TOR / 6 / 29 / 27
CHI / 6 / 27 / 27
BOS / 6 / 20 / 20

EDM / 5 / 34 / 31 (#8 has 27)
BUF / 5 / 32 / 28
TBY / 5 / 31 / 29
ANA / 5 / 31 / 24
DET / 5 / 31 / 24
PIT / 5 / 30 / 28
NAS / 5 / 29 / 28
STL / 5 / 29 / 28
WPG / 5 / 29 / 23
CAL / 5 / 27 / 23

MTL / 4 / 34 / 24
DAL / 4 / 31 / 27
FLA / 4 / 31 / 18
OTT / 4 / 30 / 27
NJD / 4 / 30 / 19
SJS / 4 / 27 / 19
PHI / 4 / 26 / 16

ARI / 3 / 26 / 25
LAK / 3 / 31 / 19
VAN / 3 / 32 / 24

COL / 2 / 30 / 18

MIN leads the league with ONE 3rd liner on pace for 40 points. They also have, by a fair amount, the most points for their '3rd line' of 36 - 32 - 22

So yes, hoping to have a 3rd line that averaged 40 points would not only be elite, it would be by far the strongest 3rd line in the NHL.

The average point total (current points) for the 7th forward on each team is 25.1 points, about a 29 point pace. And only 6 teams have a 7th forward with at least 30 points (MIN, NYR, CAR, CBS, WAS, and EDM) and only one team (MIN) has 8 forwards with 30 points.

One thing I found interesting about this was that the number of forwards on pace for 40 points (the first number) had a pretty high correlation with team success. No real surprise, but interesting.

A couple teams that really jump out in that regard are OTT and SJS. And what's interesting with them, is that they are the only two teams that have a defenseman leading their scoring. So basically, having a Karlsson or a Burns simply replaces a forward who would otherwise have had those points.

The other one that jumps out is LAK - maybe if they had a couple more goal scorers, they'd be in better shape for the playoff picture.

One final observation: when we look at the teams with the highest point totals for the #7 and #8 guy, they tend to be teams that don't get a lot of scoring from the D. And the teams that have high scoring D tend to have fewer high scoring forwards, relative to their league standings.

I once looked at total points from the defense, and I found that if a team got more than 150 points from the D, they made the playoffs, and if they got less, they didn't (this was a few years ago, and maybe that number has dropped a bit now, but the correlation would remain).

Similarly, if you have at least 5 forwards that get 40 points, you have a good chance of making the playoffs.

So if you can get 150 points from your D AND get at least 5 forwards with 40 points, you're going to be in great shape.

(To answer your question, the Flames D currently has 153 points, on pace for 177!)

Last edited by Enoch Root; 03-19-2017 at 01:25 PM.
Enoch Root is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following 7 Users Say Thank You to Enoch Root For This Useful Post:
Old 03-19-2017, 04:05 PM   #99
EldrickOnIce
Franchise Player
 
EldrickOnIce's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2002
Location: Chicago
Exp:
Default

^ nice work.
Interesting.
I would have said the Flames should have 6 over 40, or at least close. Putting that in the perspective you lay out above, 6 was certainly optimistic for this year. But I really did expect 80+ from a Bennett/Brouwer pair.
Tkachuk picking up that slack maybe saved the season. Five 40 point scorers keeps you in the hunt, 4 leaves you in trouble without all-star goaltending.

Last edited by EldrickOnIce; 03-19-2017 at 04:10 PM.
EldrickOnIce is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to EldrickOnIce For This Useful Post:
Old 03-19-2017, 04:10 PM   #100
Enoch Root
Franchise Player
 
Join Date: May 2012
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by EldrickOnIce View Post
^ nice work.
Interesting.
I would have said the Flames should have 6 over 40, or at least close. Putting that in the perspective you layer out above, certainly optimistic for this year, but I really did expect 80+ plus a Bennett/Brouwer pair.
Tkachuk picking up that slack maybe saved the season. Five 40 point scorers keeps you in the hunt, 4 leaves you in trouble without all-star goaltending.
True, but if Tkachuk isn't on that line, someone else is and they probably get 40 points.

Also, Ferland has been on a 40 point pace since joining the top line.

If you look at the Flames having 11 players with at least 10 goals, and look at the total points from the D, they have a very deep and balanced attack.

Now if we can get Bennett and Brouwer going...
Enoch Root is offline   Reply With Quote
The Following User Says Thank You to Enoch Root For This Useful Post:
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 04:41 AM.

Calgary Flames
2023-24




Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright Calgarypuck 2021