These guys think the raptors have a statistical edge. I haven’t looked into the methodology or track record but I’ll take a positive prediction any time....
538's methodology is really cool, and it was one of the few models that correctly predicted the Raptors would prevail over Bucks. Unlike most statistical models, it attempts to take into account individual players and playing times (so for example, it's calculating the difference between 37 minutes of Durant, vs. a bunch more minutes for Bell, Jerebko, McKinnie, etc).
The Durant and Cousins injuries are the reason Toronto's favoured right now. With those guys in and playing full minutes, even the 538 model would expect the Warriors to be one of the greatest teams of all time.
A neat betting opportunity is available with the Raptors odds and the MVP odds.
Since those to events are almost guaranteed to happen together you could parlay them and get between 6-1 and 7-1 odds for a Raptors Championship.
So almost 7-1 for a Raptors win and a Kawhi MVP? That surprises me and that is great value. Is it always like that for the underdog, as seems almost impossible for Raps to win and Leonard not be the MVP?
I just checked out the site. Couldn't find the MVP bet, but some interesting stuff if I place $100 on four separate bets:
Warriors by 1-2 points (+1100)
Warriors by 3-6 points (+600)
Warriors by 7-9 points (+900)
Warriors by 10-13 points (+900)
The least I can win is $200 (the +600 above minus my $400 total wagers). I'd think that would be a virtual lock for them to win under 13 points. Interesting concept.
wow, tempting. But that's assuming the warriors win. They lose and there's 0 payout :P
They certainly could win by more than 13 too. That still seems like a solid bet but does it give you that much broker a payout than just betting a Warriors win?
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I just checked out the site. Couldn't find the MVP bet, but some interesting stuff if I place $100 on four separate bets:
Warriors by 1-2 points (+1100)
Warriors by 3-6 points (+600)
Warriors by 7-9 points (+900)
Warriors by 10-13 points (+900)
The least I can win is $200 (the +600 above minus my $400 total wagers). I'd think that would be a virtual lock for them to win under 13 points. Interesting concept.
Why would you not just bet $400 on them to win $425?
You are taking a ton of extra risk for $75 extra payouts on the 2 +900, and basically betting for a 1-2 point win?
538's methodology is really cool, and it was one of the few models that correctly predicted the Raptors would prevail over Bucks. Unlike most statistical models, it attempts to take into account individual players and playing times (so for example, it's calculating the difference between 37 minutes of Durant, vs. a bunch more minutes for Bell, Jerebko, McKinnie, etc).
The Durant and Cousins injuries are the reason Toronto's favoured right now. With those guys in and playing full minutes, even the 538 model would expect the Warriors to be one of the greatest teams of all time.
Warriors in 6. Raps have enough defense to keep this series compelling, but unless Kawhi ups his game to borderline unprecedented levels, or someone seriously steps up to support him, I don't see the Raps having enough firepower. Also with Kawhi, he has been tremendous in the playoffs, but the first series and a half of the playoffs he was putting up historic numbers, but in the last series and a half he's dipped a little. He's still been very good, but not quite at the level he was early in the playoffs (efficiency wise I mean, not points). I also really like Draymond at +900 to be Finals MVP, he is annoying but he's been great this postseason.
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must show all Flames games nationally when they play on Saturdays, Mondays, and Wednesdays !!!
