Sam Bennett Value: Have the Flames held on TOO long? OR is he awesome?

[Regorium]

*edit* can't find the discussion. nm.

[Scroopy Noopers]

nm

[Regorium]

Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers

What exactly is your point here?

My point is that when it came to other players, a lot of people do believe that 250 games into their careers, they're pretty much set in stone.

For some reason, we don't see Sam Bennett in the same way.

However, I may be misremembering the discussion (or the people that were debating), so I deleted the post.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Fair enough, I just grow tired of reading constant poster battles. Bringing up an old argument someone made, to counter a point they just made about a new subject, adds nothing to the discussion.

Also you’re comparing apples to oranges when an Oiler is the player in question.

[pepper24]

Originally Posted by Regorium

My point is that when it came to other players, a lot of people do believe that 250 games into their careers, they're pretty much set in stone.

Yep, 250 games is like being in a playoff spot by US Thanksgiving. It's a good indicator of success. You get the odd exception but holds up in most cases.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

You can look up stats just as easily as I can.

There's a reason people cite the same four or five cases of players who first demonstrated they could be high-scoring forwards only after they had 250 games under their belt - it's really uncommon.

That it doesn't happen often is not a great argument that Bennett won't be an exception as well. These are individuals not statistics. Bennett happens to be the highest ever Calgary Flames draft pick. Was rated #1 in his draft year by CSS and Redline Report. If there's any player who has the skill and ability to turn his game around at age 22 its Bennett. He's shown to be a streaky scorer who is very inconsistent when he's not confident. If the kid gets some confidence back in his abilities look out. He's no Yakupov IMO, he's shown more hockey sense and ability to use his teammates than Yak. And its not like he's never shown it at the NHL level either. His first year, his 4 goal game. Plenty of reasons to think Bennett will in fact be one of those rare exceptions. He's already a rare player in Calgary Flames history as our only top 5 pick.

Lets see what he can do with a different coach and different line mates after another summer and training camp. Next year is definitely a year in which Bennett needs to show some growth. I think this thread was premature by a year at least.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Ruttiger

I think you do know what you have - most fans just choose not to see it because they don't like the answer.

Taylor Hall says hi

So does Schultz

[pepper24]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

That it doesn't happen often is not a great argument that Bennett won't be an exception as well. These are individuals not statistics. Bennett happens to be the highest ever Calgary Flames draft pick. Was rated #1 in his draft year by CSS and Redline Report. If there's any player who has the skill and ability to turn his game around at age 22 its Bennett. He's shown to be a streaky scorer who is very inconsistent when he's not confident. If the kid gets some confidence back in his abilities look out. He's no Yakupov IMO, he's shown more hockey sense and ability to use his teammates than Yak. And its not like he's never shown it at the NHL level either. His first year, his 4 goal game. Plenty of reasons to think Bennett will in fact be one of those rare exceptions. He's already a rare player in Calgary Flames history as our only top 5 pick.

Lets see what he can do with a different coach and different line mates after another summer and training camp. Next year is definitely a year in which Bennett needs to show some growth. I think this thread was premature by a year at least.

So being the highest Flames pick, Flames only top 5 pick, ranked #1 by CSS/Redline in his draft year, his first year, a 4 goal game, different coach, different line mates, regaining confidence; therefore more consistent and less streaky, and not being Naill Yakupov will mean he's one of the exceptions??

[yourbestfriend]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Lets see what he can do with a different coach and different line mates after another summer and training camp. Next year is definitely a year in which Bennett needs to show some growth. I think this thread was premature by a year at least.

If he shows growth next year, great, we have our top6 winger/center. It makes everyone's life easier.

But what I care more about (and what most posters are ignoring) is what if he doesn't? Then what? We just agree that he busted and go on with life? That's an unacceptable course of action if management actually did that.

A lot of posters are focused on what he may turn out to be and not focused on what he currently is and forecasted to be. Even if we were generous and assigned 1/99 probabilities to that of bust/not bust, we still need to have a plan in case he busts. I don't care about upside potential because that's a win/win situation for everyone - it's like winning the lottery, I’m not going to plan for it but it’d be pretty freaking awesome if it happened. What we should be doing is discussing the downside risk, something that nobody seems to want to talk about.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by yourbestfriend

If he shows growth next year, great, we have our top6 winger/center. It makes everyone's life easier.

But what I care more about (and what most posters are ignoring) is what if he doesn't? Then what? We just agree that he busted and go on with life? That's an unacceptable course of action if management actually did that.

A lot of posters are focused on what he may turn out to be and not focused on what he currently is and forecasted to be. Even if we were generous and assigned 50/50 probabilities to that of bust/not bust, we still need to have a plan in case he busts. I don't care about upside potential because that's a win/win situation for everyone - it's like winning the lottery, I’m not going to plan for it but it’d be pretty freaking awesome if it happened. What we should be doing is discussing the downside risk, something that nobody seems to want to talk about.

It's not a question of not wanting to talk about it. It just is what it is.

If he doesn't get better, you deal with it.

But if that is how things play out, so be it. You don't give up the upside to avoid that.

It's a risk/reward scenario. And the only win is to wait and see if he can take the next step. There is no upside to throwing in the towel now, because the return would be marginal anyway.

[yourbestfriend]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

It's not a question of not wanting to talk about it. It just is what it is.

If he doesn't get better, you deal with it.

But if that is how things play out, so be it. You don't give up the upside to avoid that.

It's a risk/reward scenario. And the only win is to wait and see if he can take the next step. There is no upside to throwing in the towel now, because the return would be marginal anyway.

It just is what it is? Wtf does that even mean? That’s a response you give when you don’t know the answer. Would you say that to your boss or your shareholders?
If someone asked Tre a question on Bennett’s future or any player for that matter and he answered, “it just is what it is”, he should be fired on the spot.

Everyone has these elaborate opinions on how great it would be if Bennett reached his upside, but when discussing topics that aren't so rosey, we are regulated to "it just is what it is" and "you deal with it"

[pepper24]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

It's not a question of not wanting to talk about it. It just is what it is.

If he doesn't get better, you deal with it.

But if that is how things play out, so be it. You don't give up the upside to avoid that.

It's a risk/reward scenario. And the only win is to wait and see if he can take the next step. There is no upside to throwing in the towel now, because the return would be marginal anyway.

You're kind of right. Before this past season it was fair to give him a reasonable 2 year show me contract and be patient for 2 more seasons. He unfortunately hasn't performed so far in the contract but still 1 more year to change that. Ideally, he turns into a top 6 player. I have my doubts but hope that I am wrong.

That said, I still think you can get value from him if Flames are ready to move on at draft or this summer. Next summer will be too late. They don't have a pick the first few rounds this draft. Maybe they can get some picks back. They need another top 6 forward IMO. He was going to be that guy. Maybe they can use him with a defense prospect to get that if UFA route isn't there. Flames should have a good sense on who he is after 3 seasons.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by pepper24

So being the highest Flames pick, Flames only top 5 pick, ranked #1 by CSS/Redline in his draft year, his first year, a 4 goal game, different coach, different line mates, regaining confidence; therefore more consistent and less streaky, and not being Naill Yakupov will mean he's one of the exceptions??

We don't know the future. It doesn't mean he will be an exception. It's just a lot of reasons why the, "it doesn't happen a lot in the NHL therefore it won't happen for Bennett" is a weak argument IMO.

I think there's lots of reasons to think Bennett can still turn it around. Some choose not to see those and focus solely on his play lately. Some of us look at his entire body of work and still see a lot of potential to end up as a top 6 player. It's dangerous to think 2 seasons under a bad coach equals a trend downwards that must continue. It's dangerous to write off players his age with his skills.

Obviously you're not a believer and I'll never convince you. I just think the arguments against Bennett turning it around are weaker than the arguments that he still can.

[MacDaddy77]

put him on top 6 RW to start the season. i'd don't believe hes been played as RW so that could solve some problems.

[FiveSeven]

The vast majority of the time after those amount of games played you know what you’ve got because they consistently play at a level or improve and plateau.

In Bennett’s case I feel as though that doesn’t apply to him because you can clearly see two different players in him. He can be dominate and be intelligent or useless and do stupid things.

I don’t believe being consistently inconsistent is a thing. We’ve seen stretches of greatness. Personally I think he’s going to have a much better year this time around. I just hope to start the year off he’s put in the best possible position to succeed.

[Goodlad]

Originally Posted by yourbestfriend

It just is what it is? Wtf does that even mean? That’s a response you give when you don’t know the answer. Would you say that to your boss or your shareholders?
If someone asked Tre a question on Bennett’s future or any player for that matter and he answered, “it just is what it is”, he should be fired on the spot.

Everyone has these elaborate opinions on how great it would be if Bennett reached his upside, but when discussing topics that aren't so rosey, we are regulated to "it just is what it is" and "you deal with it"

As other posters have already stated it's obvious the chances of Bennett reaching his ceiling have diminished significantly. At this point you can't depend on him to fill the gap in the top-6 so you need to develop a plan to fill that spot from somewhere else. If Bennett does become a top-6 player then great, but that has to be Plan B at this point.

As far as trading Bennett goes he's currently a serviceable 3rd line player with upside that can fill in up the lineup if needed. Unless you're getting value in a trade that exceeds that what's the point?

[DFO]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Taylor Hall says hi

So does Schultz

How does Taylor Hall fit into this comparison? He was at 0.91 P/G at the 246 game mark. That's pretty much his career average that includes this past season.

[GordonBlue]

there are good arguments for Bennett still developing into a really good player, but I hate anytime someone brings up the 4 goal game as an example.
big deal. lots of players have great games in their rookie seasons.
doesn't mean a darn thing either for or against how he will develop, or what he'll develop into. just means he had a good day.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by DFO

How does Taylor Hall fit into this comparison? He was at 0.91 P/G at the 246 game mark. That's pretty much his career average that includes this past season.

Oiler fans were quick to throw Hall under the bus as the problem in the Oiler locker room. This year he is a finalist for the Hart. The discussion is about whether players improve after the 250 game mark. So yeah, I think he fits the reference.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by yourbestfriend

It just is what it is? Wtf does that even mean? That’s a response you give when you don’t know the answer. Would you say that to your boss or your shareholders?
If someone asked Tre a question on Bennett’s future or any player for that matter and he answered, “it just is what it is”, he should be fired on the spot.

Everyone has these elaborate opinions on how great it would be if Bennett reached his upside, but when discussing topics that aren't so rosey, we are regulated to "it just is what it is" and "you deal with it"

Yes. Management is about dealing with situations going forward. Risk management is what I do for a living. And when assessing what has already transpired, it is what it is. In management, you focus on what you can do going forward.

And the mistake you made in your post, is that you referred to Bennett's future with your rhetorical question to Treliving. I wasn't dismissing his future, I was dismissing his past. I hope that you can see the difference.