Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community
Old 06-04-2016, 12:30 PM   #3081
Sylvanfan
Appealing my suspension
 
Sylvanfan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Just outside Enemy Lines
Exp:
Default

I see the Toronto real estate market had a record May. If that house of cards falls it will drag down the entire economy. With that marketwhere it is, I haveto think a .5% increase in rates could be catostrophic for the economy.

Whatever is happening in Calgary or Alberta for that matter is pretty insignificant.
__________________
"Some guys like old balls"
Patriots QB Tom Brady
Sylvanfan is offline  
The Following User Says Thank You to Sylvanfan For This Useful Post:
Old 06-04-2016, 12:41 PM   #3082
calgarygeologist
Franchise Player
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sylvanfan View Post
I see the Toronto real estate market had a record May. If that house of cards falls it will drag down the entire economy. With that marketwhere it is, I haveto think a .5% increase in rates could be catostrophic for the economy.

Whatever is happening in Calgary or Alberta for that matter is pretty insignificant.
Another thing that is interesting and potentially troubling is the news from Scotiabank this past week. They are taking a cautious position on lending in Vancouver and Toronto and have been cutting back on their mortgage positions in those markets. The CEO has also apparently been talking with the folks in Ottawa about increasing the requirements for down payments again. They seem to be moving towards a bursting bubble position.
calgarygeologist is offline  
Old 06-04-2016, 05:19 PM   #3083
Flamenspiel
Lifetime Suspension
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Exp:
Default

double post.

Last edited by Flamenspiel; 06-04-2016 at 05:33 PM.
Flamenspiel is offline  
Old 06-04-2016, 05:24 PM   #3084
Flamenspiel
Lifetime Suspension
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Exp:
Default

BNN had a graph showing that Toronto housing prices have not really gone up in US dollar terms and simply matched the US currency bubble. The jist of it was that housing had not really gone up from foreign investors perspective.

In addition 1st time buyers are finding it impossible to move up to the second home as the condo price increases have been very modest compared to a fully detached home. The differential between condos and detached homes in Toronto is reaching historical records.
Flamenspiel is offline  
Old 06-04-2016, 09:39 PM   #3085
Slava
Franchise Player
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Calgary, Alberta
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Flamenspiel View Post
BNN had a graph showing that Toronto housing prices have not really gone up in US dollar terms and simply matched the US currency bubble. The jist of it was that housing had not really gone up from foreign investors perspective.

In addition 1st time buyers are finding it impossible to move up to the second home as the condo price increases have been very modest compared to a fully detached home. The differential between condos and detached homes in Toronto is reaching historical records.
What US currency bubble are you referring to though? I don't know if this seems to qualify, and I'm not researching this tonight, but I would hazard a guess that we're around the mean as far as USD/CAD?
Slava is offline  
Old 06-05-2016, 08:10 AM   #3086
OMG!WTF!
Franchise Player
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Exp:
Default

I think you could call the USD/CAD peak in January this year a bubble. But I don't see how it correlates to the Toronto real estate market. Is foreign interest that high in TO as well?
OMG!WTF! is offline  
Old 08-29-2016, 09:12 AM   #3087
OMG!WTF!
Franchise Player
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Exp:
Default

Here's a spooky prediction...

https://www.rt.com/business/357516-c...-oil-property/

Time to baton down a few hatches I think.
OMG!WTF! is offline  
Old 08-29-2016, 09:31 AM   #3088
automaton 3
First Line Centre
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Lethbridge
Exp:
Default

^Many Canadian mortgages are CMHC backed, so not sure what he means there.

CMHC has also has sold "bulk" insurance to lenders, so many mortgages not insured by the borrower may have been insured by the lender.

Conventional mortgages (at least 20% down) are non-recourse in Alberta.

Real estate is local. I have no doubt the lower mainland BC real estate market is headed for trouble.
automaton 3 is offline  
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to automaton 3 For This Useful Post:
Old 08-29-2016, 10:02 AM   #3089
calgarygeologist
Franchise Player
 
Join Date: Dec 2013
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by OMG!WTF! View Post
Here's a spooky prediction...

https://www.rt.com/business/357516-c...-oil-property/

Time to baton down a few hatches I think.
Predicting a 1.60 exchange rate with the USD seems extremely crazy although that could be really good for manufacturing/exporting jobs and possibly the O&G industry. Has the exchange rate ever been that bad before though? I think that the worst I remember was around 1.40.
calgarygeologist is offline  
Old 08-29-2016, 10:07 AM   #3090
pseudoreality
Powerplay Quarterback
 
pseudoreality's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by automaton 3 View Post
^Many Canadian mortgages are CMHC backed, so not sure what he means there.

CMHC has also has sold "bulk" insurance to lenders, so many mortgages not insured by the borrower may have been insured by the lender.

Conventional mortgages (at least 20% down) are non-recourse in Alberta.

Real estate is local. I have no doubt the lower mainland BC real estate market is headed for trouble.
Those were my thoughts as well. That is a shotty article. I'm not saying there isn't real estate risk or general debt risk in Canada, but to say we in for worse than 2008 US is ignoring a lot of facts. I predict a small, but long market correction.
pseudoreality is offline  
Old 08-29-2016, 10:28 AM   #3091
Kavvy
Self Imposed Exile
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Calgary
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by pseudoreality View Post
Those were my thoughts as well. That is a shotty article. I'm not saying there isn't real estate risk or general debt risk in Canada, but to say we in for worse than 2008 US is ignoring a lot of facts. I predict a small, but long market correction.
Surprised?

Quote:
RT, originally Russia Today, is a television network funded by the Russian government.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RT_(TV_network)

Quote:
RT has frequently been called a propaganda outlet for the Russian government[12][13][14] and its foreign policy[12][14][15][16] by news reporters,[17][18] including former RT reporters.[19][20][21] RT has also been accused of spreading disinformation.[18][22][23][24][25] The United Kingdom media regulator, Ofcom, has repeatedly found RT to have breached rules on impartiality, and of broadcasting "materially misleading" content.[26][27][28] RT states that it offers a Russian perspective on global events.[3]
Kavvy is offline  
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Kavvy For This Useful Post:
Old 08-29-2016, 10:31 AM   #3092
Hockeyguy15
Franchise Player
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Exp:
Default

So safe to say OMG!WFT! is a Communist Russian spy?

I bet he helped the Russians during the Wannamaker campaign too!
Hockeyguy15 is offline  
The Following User Says Thank You to Hockeyguy15 For This Useful Post:
Old 08-29-2016, 10:39 AM   #3093
OMG!WTF!
Franchise Player
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by automaton 3 View Post
^Many Canadian mortgages are CMHC backed, so not sure what he means there.

CMHC has also has sold "bulk" insurance to lenders, so many mortgages not insured by the borrower may have been insured by the lender.

Conventional mortgages (at least 20% down) are non-recourse in Alberta.

Real estate is local. I have no doubt the lower mainland BC real estate market is headed for trouble.
I think the point was that generally full recourse mortgages are worse for the over all economy. They encourage lenders to loan even in bubble scenarios. And the resulting deficiency judgments can wreck havoc on recovering economies. I've read that 90% of loans in Canada a recourse loans.

Alternatively in Alberta we have these relatively unusual non recourse loans which puts our property values more at risk in a macro economy that is struggling with recourse loan fallout. Just seems like a bad place to be. The worst of both worlds.

Also CAD at $1.40 seems fairly inevitable with likely interest rate increases in the US interest rate and decreases more likely in Canada's interest rates. That plus increasing Canadian debt, worsening GDP, I think $1.40 is generous.

On the bright side I've been working in Kelowna and have encountered several Asians heading west to buy property. Maybe we'll get some Vancouver tax fallout.

Oh and i think the source of the article is cnbc but literally thousands of news outlets will run it. I just copied the first one I Google'd.

Last edited by OMG!WTF!; 08-29-2016 at 10:44 AM.
OMG!WTF! is offline  
Old 08-29-2016, 10:59 AM   #3094
polak
In the Sin Bin
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Exp:
Default

What a splendid time I picked to grow up...
polak is offline  
Old 08-29-2016, 11:00 AM   #3095
Fighting Banana Slug
#1 Goaltender
 
Fighting Banana Slug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Calgary
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by polak View Post
What a splendid time I picked to grow up...
Bubbles and busts happen all of the time. It is almost as if it is a cycle...
__________________
From HFBoard oiler fan, in analyzing MacT's management:
O.K. there has been a lot of talk on whether or not MacTavish has actually done a good job for us, most fans on this board are very basic in their analysis and I feel would change their opinion entirely if the team was successful.
Fighting Banana Slug is offline  
The Following 6 Users Say Thank You to Fighting Banana Slug For This Useful Post:
Old 08-29-2016, 11:03 AM   #3096
polak
In the Sin Bin
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug View Post
Bubbles and busts happen all of the time. It is almost as if it is a cycle...
Would you rather be 25, starting a life at the beginning of a bubble, or at the end of a bubble?

O'well, nothing we can do about it. I'm going to start a repo company.

Last edited by polak; 08-29-2016 at 11:05 AM.
polak is offline  
Old 08-29-2016, 11:12 AM   #3097
Fighting Banana Slug
#1 Goaltender
 
Fighting Banana Slug's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Calgary
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by polak View Post
Would you rather be 25, starting a life at the beginning of a bubble, or at the end of a bubble?

I'd rather be 25 period.

The thing with bubbles/cycles, is that you don't often know where you are, until it is over.

Cool story bro time: I bought my first house in 1998. The market was super hot and had been so for a few years. I felt like I had missed my opportunity to buy, because prices seemed insane and supply was gobbled up in days, if not hours. Finally did pull the trigger, about 15% higher than I wanted to go and instantly felt sick about it. I was convinced that I would be the guy that bought in Calgary and lost money.

Purchase Price: $180k for a bungalow in Altadore on a 50 ft lot.

Moral: Have a decent down payment, forecast for higher interest rates, understand your finances/needs, and buying real estate is unlikely to be a bad deal for you.
__________________
From HFBoard oiler fan, in analyzing MacT's management:
O.K. there has been a lot of talk on whether or not MacTavish has actually done a good job for us, most fans on this board are very basic in their analysis and I feel would change their opinion entirely if the team was successful.
Fighting Banana Slug is offline  
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Fighting Banana Slug For This Useful Post:
Old 08-29-2016, 12:24 PM   #3098
afc wimbledon
Franchise Player
 
afc wimbledon's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: east van
Exp:
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug View Post
I'd rather be 25 period.

The thing with bubbles/cycles, is that you don't often know where you are, until it is over.

Cool story bro time: I bought my first house in 1998. The market was super hot and had been so for a few years. I felt like I had missed my opportunity to buy, because prices seemed insane and supply was gobbled up in days, if not hours. Finally did pull the trigger, about 15% higher than I wanted to go and instantly felt sick about it. I was convinced that I would be the guy that bought in Calgary and lost money.

Purchase Price: $180k for a bungalow in Altadore on a 50 ft lot.

Moral: Have a decent down payment, forecast for higher interest rates, understand your finances/needs, and buying real estate is unlikely to be a bad deal for you.
I can remember wringing my hands and sweating over buying my house in East Van in 1999, 250,000 for old timer seemed absurd but I needed a house to run my foster home out of.
My only advise, buy cheap old crappy houses, you lose less in a crash but get all the advantages of a bubble.
afc wimbledon is offline  
The Following User Says Thank You to afc wimbledon For This Useful Post:
Old 08-29-2016, 12:47 PM   #3099
Yoho
Lifetime Suspension
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: North America
Exp:
Default

http://www.660news.com/2016/08/29/in...es-in-alberta/
Yoho is offline  
Old 08-29-2016, 01:16 PM   #3100
Firebot
First Line Centre
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Exp:
Default

Here is the thing about this article. Mortgages in arrears have increased, but the total of mortgages in arrears is 0.33%. For comparison, the peak for Alberta in the last 25 years is 0.84% in early 2011.

Also for comparison, the US total mortgages in arrears at the start of 2007 was 2%, 3.69% at the start of 2008, and peaked at 11.26% of all mortgages in 2010.

Over 10% of all mortgages in the entirety of the US was in arrears in 2010. Let that sink in for a second. We are at 0.33% in the middle of one of the longest recessions in Alberta's history.

We still have a long ways to go before we see anything significant...people don't understand just how big of a house of cards the US mortgage industry was built upon.
Firebot is offline  
The Following 6 Users Say Thank You to Firebot For This Useful Post:
 

Tags
housing , real estate

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -6. The time now is 07:20 AM.

Calgary Flames
2023-24




Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright Calgarypuck 2021