Start of season SC odds - Page 2 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

Ashasx · 09-27-2018, 12:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rotten42

How the hell do they put the Coilers ahead of the Flames? Have they looked at their roster?

As long as the Oilers have McDavid, they will likely always be favoured over the Flames heading into a new season.

It's very rare for a team to have the undisputed top player in the league and consistently miss the playoffs, but the Oilers have done that.

timbit · 09-27-2018, 12:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by heep223

The odds are set by how people are actually betting.

This is fact. Why are people getting hot and bothered by which teams Mr. and Mrs Joe Blow are wagering on to win the SC?

Heck, last year the Oilers were favorites. LOL

Textcritic · 09-27-2018, 12:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ashasx

As long as the Oilers have McDavid, they will likely always be favoured over the Flames heading into a new season.

It's very rare for a team to have the undisputed top player in the league and consistently miss the playoffs, but the Oilers have done that.

And they will continue to do that into the foreseeable future. I honestly don't think it has much of anything to do with McDavid. It's Oilers fans. They as a group appear to be extremely gullible, dangerously optimistic, and seemingly with reams of cash to spend.

GGG · 09-27-2018, 01:05 PM

Pretty big Vig on these odds 40%.. It's tough to find value on any team

Mattman · 09-27-2018, 03:06 PM

To high:
LA Kings
Anahiem
Edmonton

To low:
Florida
New Jersey
Buffalo
Arizona

CaptainYooh · 09-27-2018, 04:22 PM

Vegas was dead last in odds last pre-season and look at their odds now, less Neal, Tatar plus Pacioretti... I mean, he's good, but not that good.

Textcritic · 09-27-2018, 04:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CaptainYooh

Vegas was dead last in odds last pre-season and look at their odds now, less Neal, Tatar plus Pacioretti... I mean, he's good, but not that good.

... plus Pacioretti and Paul Stastny.

jayswin · 09-27-2018, 05:47 PM

..and Tatar didn't do much for them. Wasn't he even sat for some playoff games?

midniteowl · 09-27-2018, 05:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by White Out 403

god. toronto winning the cup would make the internet unbearable for a solid 3 years.

It's more like 3 decades!

doctajones428 · 09-27-2018, 06:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by White Out 403

god. toronto winning the cup would make the internet unbearable for a solid 3 years.

F Winnipeg

Mattman · 09-27-2018, 06:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by doctajones428

F Winnipeg

I'd be thrilled if Winnipeg won it, next favourite and most tolerable Canadian team out there.

calumniate · 09-27-2018, 06:07 PM

Ty Hattie the saviour!

ricardodw · 09-28-2018, 09:51 AM

I found this on ESPN Last year the betting public thought the Flames were slightly better team then they think they are this year. Flames were a playoff team and added Smith and Hamonic.

Quote:

Here are the latest odds for each of the 31 teams in the National Hockey League to win the 2018 Stanley Cup, according to the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

Odds as of Aug. 14. 2017

2018 Stanley Cup Odds
TEAM OPENING ODDS CURRENT ODDS
Pittsburgh Penguins 8-1 6-1
Edmonton Oilers 10-1 9-1
Tampa Bay Lightning 10-1 12-1
Washington Capitals 10-1 12-1
Chicago Blackhawks 12-1 12-1
Minnesota Wild 14-1 12-1
Toronto Maple Leafs 14-1 14-1
Nashville Predators 14-1 14-1
Dallas Stars 14-1 14-1
Anaheim Ducks 14-1 14-1
Montreal Canadiens 14-1 16-1
New York Rangers 14-1 16-1
San Jose Sharks 20-1 20-1
Los Angeles Kings 20-1 20-1
Columbus Blue Jackets 20-1 25-1
Ottawa Senators 30-1 30-1
Boston Bruins 30-1 30-1
St. Louis Blues 30-1 30-1
Calgary Flames 30-1 30-1
Florida Panthers 40-1 40-1
New York Islanders 40-1 50-1
Philadelphia Flyers 40-1 50-1
Winnipeg Jets 40-1 50-1
Buffalo Sabres 60-1 60-1
Carolina Hurricanes 60-1 60-1
Colorado Avalanche 100-1 100-1
Detroit Red Wings 100-1 200-1
New Jersey Devils 100-1 200-1
Arizona Coyotes 100-1 200-1
Vancouver Canucks 100-1 200-1
Vegas Golden Knights 200-1 200-1

BigSmoke · 09-30-2018, 02:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matata

They're just trying to milk Toronto fans for money by inflating their odds, worked last year with Edmonton.

Odds are ultimately set by how they think fans will bet.

e: lol @ edmonton getting mid-tier odds after being a bottom tier team and not improving.

That's not how odds work otherwise the Leafs would be #1 every year.

Toronto had 105 points with Matthews/Marner/Nylander all 21 and under and added Tavares. Makes sense they are an elite favourite.

And Edmonton themselves last year were picked by many non-Oiler fans to win the cup given their success the previous season.

dino7c · 09-30-2018, 04:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigSmoke

That's not how odds work otherwise the Leafs would be #1 every year.

Toronto had 105 points with Matthews/Marner/Nylander all 21 and under and added Tavares. Makes sense they are an elite favourite.

And Edmonton themselves last year were picked by many non-Oiler fans to win the cup given their success the previous season.

Added JT

Lost JVR/Bozak...has Nylander signed?

They are not the best team on paper. Fans and media hype are certainly a factor. Oilers are the ultimate example. What success did the Oilers have exactly? Since when did getting to round two make a team a legit cup favorite? Enjoy losing your money though.

BigSmoke · 10-01-2018, 07:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dino7c

Added JT

Lost JVR/Bozak...has Nylander signed?

They are not the best team on paper. Fans and media hype are certainly a factor. Oilers are the ultimate example. What success did the Oilers have exactly? Since when did getting to round two make a team a legit cup favorite? Enjoy losing your money though.

Kadri has replaced Bozak FYI. They are definitely better. Bozak was very good on face offs and well that's it. JT has even replaced JVR's one great asset-1st PP specialist infront of the net.
Nylander will get signed eventually.

They are as good as anyone on paper.

Edmonton had a very good season the previous year. That's why they were picked as a cup favourite. Are you sayinga team should only be picked asa favourite if they win a couple of rounds? Betting has never worked that way.

The Leafs are getting hype because of the fantastic summer they had and the fact they already had the 6th best record in the NHl without Tavares last season.

It's funny that the Leafs are seen as not very good and overhyped. look at that roster. Those 3 centres are a nightmare to matchup against. They are the best 3 in the NHL.

GGG · 10-01-2018, 07:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigSmoke

That's not how odds work otherwise the Leafs would be #1 every year.

Toronto had 105 points with Matthews/Marner/Nylander all 21 and under and added Tavares. Makes sense they are an elite favourite.

And Edmonton themselves last year were picked by many non-Oiler fans to win the cup given their success the previous season.

That is how odds works.

Odds are set based on projected betting patterns so that no matter who wins the sports book wins money.

Now you can argue whether that projected betting patterns are based on being a public team or skill. And some of it is skill. But public teams in general will always have lower odds than their skill level will indicate. They have to as they are over bet.

So the odds the leafs have are lower than there odds they actually have. That said they are an above mid pack team for next year that should easily make the playoffs.

BigSmoke · 10-01-2018, 07:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GGG

That is how odds works.

Odds are set based on projected betting patterns so that no matter who wins the sports book wins money.

Now you can argue whether that projected betting patterns are based on being a public team or skill. And some of it is skill. But public teams in general will always have lower odds than their skill level will indicate. They have to as they are over bet.

So the odds the leafs have are lower than there odds they actually have. That said they are an above mid pack team for next year that should easily make the playoffs.

Comments like this show YOU are the one underrating the Leafs and not Vegas odds overrating them.

They were the 6th best team last season. 5th best goal diff. added a franchise C but they'll be worse? But they are what 10-15 now? Huh?

Fans do not put $ down on their own team just for the sake of it.

PsYcNeT · 10-01-2018, 10:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigSmoke

Comments like this show YOU are the one underrating the Leafs and not Vegas odds overrating them.

They were the 6th best team last season. 5th best goal diff. added a franchise C but they'll be worse? But they are what 10-15 now? Huh?

Fans do not put $ down on their own team just for the sake of it.

6th best teams don't lose in the first round.

jayswin · 10-01-2018, 10:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigSmoke

Kadri has replaced Bozak FYI. They are definitely better. Bozak was very good on face offs and well that's it. JT has even replaced JVR's one great asset-1st PP specialist infront of the net.
Nylander will get signed eventually.

I think the Leafs will be great this season, but when speaking to lost and gained offense after a season of change, you can't take a player that was on the team last season and say he replaces a player that left.