Arena Negotiation Discussion v2

[Mull]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

The isn’t an NHL thing. And it isn’t about the cost of going to games - it’s not as though the
Dome was packed with 20-somethings in the 90s. Pro sports are declining in popularity with the young full-stop. There’s just way more options for entertainment without having to leave your home.

I am glad that as part of the payback of the City investment we are depending on a 2% ticket tax then....

[Strange Brew]

Is there some data to support the decline in popularity of pro sports among young people? TV ratings really don’t count, cord cutting being a chief reason.

Valuation of pro sports franchises continues to go up as far as I know. Programming rights valuation keep going up. The sources of revenue for pro sports keep diversifying. In general there is more and more disposable income available to be spent on pro sports related purchases.

“Young people” are consuming their sports in different ways but I’m not yet convinced that we’re seeing movement of money out of sports when every new deal is more lucrative than the previous.

But that doesn’t mean it all translates into ticket sales and attendance which does make me skeptical about how much to invest in arenas and stadiums.

[powderjunkie]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...cmlc-1.6000851

Stampede had already been using this lot for their 10 day event for staff (with temporary lights and it was unsafe...I’ve heard there were some sexual assaults).


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[carmenshoes]

So is the Arena still a go or are we still figuring out financing?

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by carmenshoes

So is the Arena still a go or are we still figuring out financing?

It’s not technically kyboshed, but there are enough issues that breaking ground in August is looking less likely. It’s anyone’s guess at this point if or when it happens.

[Manhattanboy]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

It’s not technically kyboshed, but there are enough issues that breaking ground in August is looking less likely. It’s anyone’s guess at this point if or when it happens.

This is accurate from a couple of Flames insiders I’ve chatted with.

[NewFan]

I'm not sure about all this Flames and city agreement and building cost thing. But I wish the city has world class entertainment and sport arena that has great management team. Watching world championship of any sport or any big artists in own city is great.

[Sylvanfan]

They did go ahead with seeking out potential bidders with a pre-qualification process. I guess it has a lot less steel than what is in the BMO center, about half as there is a lot more concrete. Still looks like they are hoping to begin Construction later this summer.

Edmonton had a bit of a last minute snag with their arena when it was known that Mandel would step down and not run again, but eventually things got worked out. I don't think the Calgary admin will be as generous as Edmonton was, but I think both sides should realize they need to get the deal done with each other and have his largely underway when the next council is voted in.

[Mull]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

but I think both sides should realize they need to get the deal done with each other and have his largely underway when the next council is voted in.

Why though? Even I, a very vocal new-arena opponent would say that if the deal doesn't change, Calgary should have no reason to allow a new council to weasel out of it. We made a deal.

You think there is a real chance new council will try to get out of it? I think that would look pretty bad.

[Mazrim]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Is there some data to support the decline in popularity of pro sports among young people? TV ratings really don’t count, cord cutting being a chief reason.

Valuation of pro sports franchises continues to go up as far as I know. Programming rights valuation keep going up. The sources of revenue for pro sports keep diversifying. In general there is more and more disposable income available to be spent on pro sports related purchases.

“Young people” are consuming their sports in different ways but I’m not yet convinced that we’re seeing movement of money out of sports when every new deal is more lucrative than the previous.

But that doesn’t mean it all translates into ticket sales and attendance which does make me skeptical about how much to invest in arenas and stadiums.

I'm not really sure how a kid living in North America is supposed to become a fan of one of the big 4 sports here these days. The prices are way too high for them to attend games unless their family is well off. They could go see junior games but will that translate to the big leagues later?

If your family is cord cutting, then the chance of seeing a random game on TV is gone unless your parents already pay money specifically to watch the games. Social media is good at sharing bits and pieces, except when they get copyright claimed by the leagues. I just don't see how you can grow the game in youth demographics like you did 20 years ago.

The valuation of the media deals is growing because it's one of the few places left for appointment viewing, so it's stable advertising revenue. The leagues can keep raising prices for tickets because the established fan base (which is only getting older except for the NBA) can afford it, but can they keep getting away with it? At some point the financial capacity of their fans will max out and there will be no one coming up behind them willing to spend that kind of money.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by Mull

Why though? Even I, a very vocal new-arena opponent would say that if the deal doesn't change, Calgary should have no reason to allow a new council to weasel out of it. We made a deal.

You think there is a real chance new council will try to get out of it? I think that would look pretty bad.

At this point these are the parties who made the original deal. Ultimately both parties want the project to go forward, neither one has any reason to intentionally sabotage the project. So I do believe that they will want to get things sorted out so that Construction can begin. In construction things do change over these longer time frames on larger projects, and I'm sure the CMLC is very experienced, and well aware of this. This isn't the first time a large project has stalled at this stage, and it won't be the last. CSEC likely see's an opportunity to leverage this and make a play. The CMLC most likely knew this was coming.

The last thing that anyone wants is to have this die and have the next council need to negotiate a new deal, and drag this out any longer. If there is a reasonable deal to be made than this Council will want to see Construction start and the new Council will be tasked to make sure the building get's built under this deal and focus on the next of run of projects.

So it's my opinion that both sides will be able to find a deal that they can live with here to move it ahead.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Mazrim

I'm not really sure how a kid living in North America is supposed to become a fan of one of the big 4 sports here these days. The prices are way too high for them to attend games unless their family is well off. They could go see junior games but will that translate to the big leagues later?

If your family is cord cutting, then the chance of seeing a random game on TV is gone unless your parents already pay money specifically to watch the games. Social media is good at sharing bits and pieces, except when they get copyright claimed by the leagues. I just don't see how you can grow the game in youth demographics like you did 20 years ago.

The valuation of the media deals is growing because it's one of the few places left for appointment viewing, so it's stable advertising revenue. The leagues can keep raising prices for tickets because the established fan base (which is only getting older except for the NBA) can afford it, but can they keep getting away with it? At some point the financial capacity of their fans will max out and there will be no one coming up behind them willing to spend that kind of money.

I feel like this is how kids consume sports more than ever. And people spend their money in different ways now too. Branding, apparel, other licensed content.

I could see attendance at live events going down, or at least not growing, tey money coming into the sport continues to increase.

IMO we are still a ways away from decreasing popularity, and maybe the traditional metrics of measuring interest need to change.

[carmenshoes]

Was there a deal in place? Was the deal overturned because increases in cost?

[Joborule]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I feel like this is how kids consume sports more than ever. And people spend their money in different ways now too. Branding, apparel, other licensed content.

I could see attendance at live events going down, or at least not growing, tey money coming into the sport continues to increase.

IMO we are still a ways away from decreasing popularity, and maybe the traditional metrics of measuring interest need to change.

I don't think the leagues are that foolish also. As long as there is enough attention from the youth demographic that you still maintain a good attention base, they will always be in good shape financial. If there's a point that the price of tickets is higher than the demand, then they can scale back the pricing if necessary.

The leagues just need to ensure that the next generation of fans keep watching the games both through TV/streaming, and in person.

I will add that I do think that fan loyalty will diminish over time possibly though. So teams that don't have successfully records/are bottom feeders for a prolonged period of time will struggle to maintain a good stream of revenue compared to before. Bandwagon interest is going to be more and more common in the future.

[Manhattanboy]

Originally Posted by carmenshoes

So is the Arena still a go or are we still figuring out financing?

Far from certain from what I’m hearing. Plus there’s a fall municipal election so this deal will be re-debated publicly all over again.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Joborule

I don't think the leagues are that foolish also. As long as there is enough attention from the youth demographic that you still maintain a good attention base, they will always be in good shape financial. If there's a point that the price of tickets is higher than the demand, then they can scale back the pricing if necessary.

The leagues just need to ensure that the next generation of fans keep watching the games both through TV/streaming, and in person.

I will add that I do think that fan loyalty will diminish over time possibly though. So teams that don't have successfully records/are bottom feeders for a prolonged period of time will struggle to maintain a good stream of revenue compared to before. Bandwagon interest is going to be more and more common in the future.

In other sports, I believe loyalty has swapped from the team to the player more than ever. When you can't afford to go to games, it's easier for loyalty to be portable IMO.

But hockey is still very much a niche sport in the US and that's not happening the same way. The players are still relatively anonymous.

[SebC]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calga...hite-1.6005771

I will admit that I haven't kept up with Calgary's development scene, but this sounds like a huge problem for any CRL-based funding model.

If Calgary's downtown residential market crashes, it will have a major impact on the completion of East Village, which is only half finished. And, without significant residential development, the entire economic case for the Stampede Park's transformation is in jeopardy.

[The Familia]

That article is a load of crap. Yes some Vancouver based CONDO developers have packed up but that’s because condos are in a major slump at the moment. Rental towers are the new thing and there are still plenty of those currently being built and proposed. East Village may have to transition to a couple more rental towers to fill up some of the vacant lots. Bridgeland is booming at the moment and will provide a massive population boost to the area once their final buildings are complete. Bridgeland is also a stones throw to the East Village and will dip into their amenities. The entertainment district should be a draw on its own (if done correctly) so that will provide incentive to develop the area further. It should spill over into the East Village. It will take some time but things are moving in the right direction.

[getbak]

I find anything written by the Richard White guy tends to be from the most-negative perspective possible.

[carmenshoes]

Speaking of overruns is $575 Million is enough money to build a great arena?
Who will be responsible for demonstrative losses, i.e overruns? What happens if we find out that CDN$575 million is nowhere near enough to build a state of the art facility?

There's no telling what the actual construction cost will be. Either the City or the Owners of the Calgary Flames will have to bare the cost of such a proposed deal.