2021/2022 Trade Speculation and Rumours

[Tkachukwagon]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1503800599267053569

Hmmm, Pittsburg also in on Chairot?

[Ashes]

What has Monahan done to deserve getting a look with better wingers higher in the lineup though? Ruzicka has stepped in and seems to have built pretty quick chemistry with Toffoli/Mangiapani, Backlund is our shutdown C with Coleman and Lewis (at least for now) so that leaves Monahan struggling at the bottom of the lineup in a role that he just isn't suited for, despite his great size.

It's unfortunate that it's gotten to this point with Monahan but he's the odd-man out with this roster the way it's put together right now. If the Flames can find a partner and give him an opportunity somewhere else, I'd be all for it. We need the cap space next year but it could be used effectively for rental at the deadline this year. Also sure, there's hesitation because none of us know what a move like this does inside the dressing room if he's traded, but I think we've seen this is a mentally strong group with Sutter behind the bench this year and I just don't have the same concerns.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Ashes

What has Monahan done to deserve getting a look with better wingers higher in the lineup though? Ruzicka has stepped in and seems to have built pretty quick chemistry with Toffoli/Mangiapani, Backlund is our shutdown C with Coleman and Lewis (at least for now) so that leaves Monahan struggling at the bottom of the lineup in a role that he just isn't suited for, despite his great size.

It's unfortunate that it's gotten to this point with Monahan but he's the odd-man out with this roster the way it's put together right now. If the Flames can find a partner and give him an opportunity somewhere else, I'd be all for it. We need the cap space next year but it could be used effectively for rental at the deadline this year. Also sure, there's hesitation because none of us know what a move like this does inside the dressing room if he's traded, but I think we've seen this is a mentally strong group with Sutter behind the bench this year and I just don't have the same concerns.

Well, he had just one game with Mangiapane and immediately looked as good a Ruzicka did, and then he was back with Dube and Lucic. He was paired with Toffoli (and Dube) off the bat and immediately looked good, but the line was not rewarded, though Toffoli scored late on a line change.

Monahan has suffered a bit in not getting more than a game or three in a row with anyone better than Dube and Lucic. and some combos he was put with for long stretches were brutal matched - Pitlick and Lewis especially - guys who are neither feeding him nor cashing in on his passes.

[TheScorpion]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1503827389540810753

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

https://twitter.com/user/status/1503827389540810753

Cue teams looking at their cross-border schedules. Guaranteed he's not Pacific bound.

[BlindMilwaukee]

^ Would be nice if he was though.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Ashes

What has Monahan done to deserve getting a look with better wingers higher in the lineup though? Ruzicka has stepped in and seems to have built pretty quick chemistry with Toffoli/Mangiapani, Backlund is our shutdown C with Coleman and Lewis (at least for now) so that leaves Monahan struggling at the bottom of the lineup in a role that he just isn't suited for, despite his great size.

Interesting the one thing that Ruzicka has driven better than Monahan is on-ice finishing.

Let's look at both Ruzicka and Monahan when not playing with Lewis (Proxy for playing with better wingers).

Ruzicka without Lewis:
TOI: 75 Minutes
xGF%: 52.8%
HDCF%: 45.5%
GF%: 100% (5 - 0)
Shooting Percentage: 10.9%
Save Percentage: 1.000

Monahan without Lewis:
TOI: 496 Minutes
xGF%: 54.4%
HDCF%: 58.0%
GF%: 41.6% (15 - 21)
Shooting Percentage: 5.21%
Save Percentage: .915

So Monahan has actually been generating high quality chances and high xGF when playing off the 4th line, issue is they have had some of the worst finishing luck in the league this year.

IMO Dube and Monahan shouldn't be separated.

Dube+Monahan
TOI: 291 Minutes
xGF%: 59.6%
HDCF%: 65.3%
GF: 38.1% (8 - 13)
Shooting Percentage: 4.73%
On Ice Save Percentage: .908

Just horrendus horrendus luck. Even if their on-ice shooting percentage was 8.3% (which is league average for 5v5 this year) that would mean they would have scored 14 goals at 5v5 instead of 8, and would be green on the ledger together.

Honestly I'd keep Dube and Monahan together, and just hope that those percentages start to revert back to the mean come playoff time.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Interesting the one thing that Ruzicka has driven better than Monahan is on-ice finishing.



Just horrendus horrendus luck. Honestly I'd keep Dube and Monahan together, and just hope that those percentages start to revert back to the mean come playoff time.

That, or (Devil's Advocate here) Monahan has lost his shot and Dube never really had it (accuracy anyway). Dube shoots hard but wide or centre mass a lot (I think he closes his eyes and wrists as hard as he can). Monahan either rushes a weak one these days or is slower and gets tipped.

[MikeMc]

Are we still defending Monahan and praying he gets better at things he's just not good at? Are we pushing Monahan to play with players who he will likely only bring down (prop him up)? He's slow, not a good playmaker, isn't great defensively, and is soft as puppy poop 95% of the time.

Sutter has been all kinds of patient with him. His shot is seemingly gone and his mobility seems to be worse. Why in a year where we have a chance, are we still hoping this turns around?

We need his cap to resign more important players.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by MikeMc

Are we still defending Monahan and praying he gets better at things he's just not good at? Are we pushing Monahan to play with players who he will likely only bring down (prop him up)? He's slow, not a good playmaker, isn't great defensively, and is soft as puppy poop 95% of the time.

Sutter has been all kinds of patient with him. His shot is seemingly gone and his mobility seems to be worse. Why in a year where we have a chance, are we still hoping this turns around?

We need his cap to resign more important players.

Not really, IMO. He hasn't benched him but he hasn't supported him with offensive players either. I think Sutter hoped he and Dube would click, as did a bunch of us.

Why do you say his mobility is worse? Even his critics say he's skating better.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

That, or (Devil's Advocate here) Monahan has lost his shot and Dube never really had it (accuracy anyway). Dube shoots hard but wide or centre mass a lot (I think he closes his eyes and wrists as hard as he can). Monahan either rushes a weak one these days or is slower and gets tipped.

That is still a ridiculously low shooting percentage.

408 forwards have played 300 or more minutes at 5v5 this year.

6 have lower on-ice shooting percentage than the 4.73% that Monahan and Dube have when on the ice together this year.

Khaira- 3.79%
Lowry - 3.85%
Bozak - 3.90%
Roussel - 4.04%
Helm - 4.25%
Foligno - 4.49%

Over the last two seasons prior to this one Monahan had a 7.0% on ice shooting percentage, and Dube had an 8.65% on ice shooting percentage.

Individually the two years before this year Monahan was shooting at 8.21% and Dube was shooting at 10.94%.

This year that has dropped to 4.11% and 6.10% respectively.

Personally I like to think the on-ice shooting percentage, and individual shooting percentage dropping by 50% for both those guys almost overnight to be bad luck.

Those pucks will start going in eventually...especially for Dube where the regression doesn't seem to be injury related like Monahan. He's been stoned a lot this year, and has missed grade A opportunities a lot as well.

[Ashes]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Interesting the one thing that Ruzicka has driven better than Monahan is on-ice finishing.

Let's look at both Ruzicka and Monahan when not playing with Lewis (Proxy for playing with better wingers).

Ruzicka without Lewis:
TOI: 75 Minutes
xGF%: 52.8%
HDCF%: 45.5%
GF%: 100% (5 - 0)
Shooting Percentage: 10.9%
Save Percentage: 1.000

Monahan without Lewis:
TOI: 496 Minutes
xGF%: 54.4%
HDCF%: 58.0%
GF%: 41.6% (15 - 21)
Shooting Percentage: 5.21%
Save Percentage: .915

So Monahan has actually been generating high quality chances and high xGF when playing off the 4th line, issue is they have had some of the worst finishing luck in the league this year.

IMO Dube and Monahan shouldn't be separated.

Dube+Monahan
TOI: 291 Minutes
xGF%: 59.6%
HDCF%: 65.3%
GF: 38.1% (8 - 13)
Shooting Percentage: 4.73%
On Ice Save Percentage: .908

Just horrendus horrendus luck. Even if their on-ice shooting percentage was 8.3% (which is league average for 5v5 this year) that would mean they would have scored 14 goals at 5v5 instead of 8, and would be green on the ledger together.

Honestly I'd keep Dube and Monahan together, and just hope that those percentages start to revert back to the mean come playoff time.

Thanks for pulling up the stats, it's a pretty interesting comparison between Ruzicka and Monahan this season. I still have a better feeling about Ruzicka staying where he is for the time being, at least until other moves are made.

I think the other big questions which may determine Tre's deadline plans are:

- Going into the playoffs, would Sutter would trust Ruzicka (as a rookie) with being the Center on our secondary scoring line with Mangi/Toffoli? Or do they look to bring in more experience for that line, and move Ruzicka down with Lucic/Dube.

- Can we expect the Bennett-Playoff-Effect (BPE) with Dube.. this team could really use an unexpected contributor like that, but he's been so snakebit this season, it's tough to imagine he suddenly flips that switch. But hey, Bennett made a habit out of it.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/ho...d-for-contact/

Dvorak might be game ready just before the deadline. Curious timing.

I don't get all the Dvorak talk. MTL just paid a 1st and 2nd for him...they have some other promising C's, but you have to think they'd be much more focused on trying to turnover their older assets (Hoffman, Byron, Petry, etc.) first.

Originally Posted by Sec214

I think they can still trade it, just would have to forfeit the 22 Pick to Montreal regardless of where we finish at this point its very unlikely to be a top 10 Pick.

I don't think it would be forfeiting the 22 pick (ie. changing the terms of an existing deal), it would be putting a condition on the new deal: "If the Flames 2023 1st is transferred to MTL as part of the Toffoli deal, team X receives CGY's 2024 1st"

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Ashes

- Can we expect the Bennett-Playoff-Effect (BPE) with Dube.. this team could really use an unexpected contributor like that, but he's been so snakebit this season, it's tough to imagine he suddenly flips that switch. But hey, Bennett made a habit out of it.

This is the best example.

In 19-20 Bennett had an abnormally low 5.84% on-ice shooting percentage.

Then suddenly in the playoffs on the line with Dube and Lucic it shot up to 8.3% and he became "Playoff Sam Bennett" again.

Generally players that have abnormally low on-ice shooting percentages will see that start to revert to the mean at some point.

Hopefully for the Flames, Monahan and Dube start to revert back to mean come playoff time.

Dube is going to be Bennett 2.0 for this team where we will trade him and those pucks will start to go in.

[MikeMc]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Not really, IMO. He hasn't benched him but he hasn't supported him with offensive players either. I think Sutter hoped he and Dube would click, as did a bunch of us.

Why do you say his mobility is worse? Even his critics say he's skating better.

Why does a former first line center and 6 million dollar player need to be supported with offensive players? He was dragging Johnny down. And when he is elevated, he drags those linemates down as well.

The Monahan, Dube, Toff line doesn't work well because Monahan isn't a center and then you need to rely on erratic Dube or slow Toff to bring the puck up/drive play. Which neither are great at.

Has he been a good solider and tried to work through his injuries and try to find a place on this team? Sure. But we are taking our shot this year - we want to go to war with a broken player? One who's slow, and not hard to play against? I do not.

Maybe he skating is better? I don't think so.

[Vinny01]

Just watched insider trading.

Little nervous here Lebrun again talking about Chariot and Pelletier being of interest to the Flames and Habs respectively. Lebrun has called some Flames moves in the past most notably the Lindholm-Hamilton deal.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Just watched insider trading.

Little nervous here Lebrun again talking about Chariot and Pelletier being of interest to the Flames and Habs respectively. Lebrun has called some Flames moves in the past most notably the Lindholm-Hamilton deal.

If the Flames were willing to offer Pelletier the deal is probably done already.

At least that's what I'm going to tell myself.

[Mathgod]

Just me spitballing again...

If Spezza could be convinced to come to Calgary to win a quick cup, maybe you trade Vladar + Richardson for Campbell (50% retained) + Spezza. Campbell will be back from injury in a couple weeks and Wolf could hold down the fort as the backup in the meantime. Spezza becomes the #3C and there's competition between Monahan and Ruzicka for the #4C spot.

[Vinny01]

Spezza was on record that he would retire if he wasn’t playing in Toronto.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Spezza was on record that he would retire if he wasn’t playing in Toronto.

Sure but there's no reason why he can't change his mind. Win a quick cup and then go back to Toronto in July.